The Yar’adua Presidency will be half way through its term by the end of this month. Indeed as Barack Obama celebrated his first 100 days the previous week, our own government has also being in office for roughly 100 weeks this week. How has the regime fared? As I pondered over this question preparatory to writing the inevitable Yar’adua mid-term review, the President did me, and other Nigerians a service-his extensive interview with the Guardian provided a comprehensive “examination script” on the basis of which Nigerians can assess the last two years and provide a report card. I propose to do exactly that over the next two weeks.
First of all the idea of the interview was itself a welcome change given what had come to resemble the regime’s preference for shielding its activities from the media and conducting government without “playing to the gallery”. I commend the President’s initiative and hope that the interview should signpost a shift in communication strategy, with the President, Ministers and other senior government officials willing and indeed eager to engage Nigerians on their policies, plans and challenges. That in itself is a critical ingredient of democracy-openness and accountability. Policy communication also has an economic role, especially in a period of turmoil and uncertainty, of calming investors and increasing confidence. The second thing that came across from the interview is the President’s increasing mastery of details which seems to me to indicate a significant improvement in the quality of governance in the President’s second year.
A similar interview marking the first twelve months was comparably less engaging and left the interviewee resorting to the refrain of “rule of law” which soon appeared like an alibi in the absence of substantive progress. A final preliminary observation, also positive, is that the accusation that the Yar’adua regime is lacking in strategy and policy may no longer be a correct assessment. The President throughout the interview appeared finally to have articulated a comprehensive strategy and policy direction which we can now analyse and agree or disagree with. That is a significant step forward and reflects partially the fact that the President has assembled an improved cabinet and has access to better quality information, analysis and policy advice. The issue now (in most areas) is whether the President’s strategy is appropriate and even then whether he is proceeding resolutely with implementation.
I can say right away that I disagree with the government’s strategy in respect of power, which is probably (next to corruption) Nigeria’s most important economic challenge. The strategy appears to be an endorsement of the Rilwanu Lukman committee’s basic recommendation of a state-led strategy for power. The strategy flies in the face of the reality that government does not have the resources, managerial capacity and incentive structure to solve the country’s power problems. It ignores the lessons of telecommunications, aviation, broadcasting and banking amongst others, in all of which private capital rapidly increased capacity and service delivery and created jobs and other economic spin-offs. Curiously the preferred approach in power contradicts the regime’s posture in relation to transport infrastructure-roads and rail-where a concessioning strategy is emerging and the petroleum sector reforms driven by the same Rilwanu Lukman which seeks to remove the obligation on government to fund upstream joint venture cash calls.
The power error is a major drawback to the otherwise sensible proposals emerging from petroleum-both downstream and upstream, transportation and other economic sectors. It also diverts resources from the critical investments in education, health, rural development, public transportation, security and law and order and social welfare which only the government can undertake, whereas private capital will readily go into the power sector if the right policies are pursued. Those resources for instance may have eased our ability to meet the millennium development goals. It is becoming likely that the administration will meet its 6,000 MW target by December or soon thereafter. That is good, but will not lead us to becoming one of the top twenty economies in the world. The strategy will not produce a transformation in power which is what we need, but will at best only deliver incremental growth. As Michael Porter famously said, “operational effectiveness is not strategy!”
One area where even from the interview it does appear that Yar’adua is yet to make up his mind on what he wants to do is with respect to corruption. I mentioned above that in my view corruption is in reality our biggest economic problem in that it leaves us only a fraction of value-for-money for every Naira of public investment. It also affects capital inflows and investments and distorts economic planning. Apart from its economic effects, corruption is also our biggest political problem (it attracts the wrong people into politics and is the raison d’être for election rigging) and social issue (it encourages conspicuous consumption and erodes moral values thus leading youths into 419, armed robbery, kidnapping, prostitution and other vices). It is clear that the regime is yet to reach a depth of purpose in relation to corruption.
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