The Evolution of Boko Haram (3)

This columnist has written at least six articles dedicated to “Boko Haram”-“The Evolution of Boko Haram” Parts 1 and 2 on February 1 and 8, 2012; “Johnnie Carson, the US and Boko Haram” on April 18, 2012; “The Malian Jihad” on January 23, 2013; “The Politics of Boko Haram” on April 10, 2013; and “Amnesty and Emergency” on May 22 2013 and other articles treating the issue in part and on social media. Through all these, my position hasn’t changed-the phenomenon has religious, political, economic, social, military and global dimensions and appeasement is unlikely to resolve the crises. Boko Haram (BH) is motivated by extremist religious ideology and seeks to overawe Nigeria’s secular constitution in favour of an Islamic Caliphate governed under fundamentalist Sharia. Socio-economic conditions in the North generally and North-East in particular facilitate religious demagoguery-poverty, unemployment, illiteracy and ignorance, decades of tolerance for sectarian politics combined with hegemonic aspirations and an inclination to deploy violence for political ends, and a large, “un-parented” and uneducated youth population bereft of skills and employability whose only social conditioning has been through a bankrupt “Almajiri” system. National politics since 1999, particularly demise of late President Yar’adua and the regionalized 2011 presidential contest encouraged a climate suitable for transmutation of what was until 2011 a localized band of religious miscreants with links to regional politicians into a national terrorist organization with the objective of destroying an unwanted presidency. Given these facts, the debate over whether Boko Haram is religious, political or otherwise is silly, nonsensical and pointless! The group is explicitly religious, has patently political objectives, exploits abject socio-economic conditions and weak governance, and is able to leverage a politico-religious narrative of marginalization of faith and region! The US and Western nations have been in denial regarding BH and made utterly faulty and escapist diagnosis and prescriptions for resolving the matter-Johnnie Carson wanted Nigeria to appoint more “Northerners” to “important” positions (unaware (?) that except for the presidency (which they had until then disproportionately dominated), Northern Muslims occupied many of the most important positions in the land-Vice-President, ruling party chair, Chief Justice, Representatives Speaker, CBN Governor, Ministers of Defense, FCT, Foreign Affairs and Education, NSA, Inspector General, Attorney General, Head of Service, Court of Appeal President etc.) and to create a Ministry of Northern Affairs; Hillary Clinton refused to designate Boko Haram a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) on the faulty logic that doing so would alienate the North (curious given official Northern position that the group represented neither Islam nor the North); and Obama and Cameron tried their best to pretend not to notice BH even when it bombed the UN office in Abuja, Churches, newspaper houses and markets! Till date we retain several wrong assumptions about Boko Haram-that most of the terrorists are infiltrators from neighbouring countries-Niger, Chad, Cameroun, Mali, even Somalia etc.-but the more empirical observation may in fact be that Nigeria is now the epicenter of a West and Central African terrorist network that may in future destabilize other countries. I will not be surprised to find for instance, that the inspiration, funding and logistics for the failed Jihads in Mali and Central African Republic may have partly or substantially emanated from Nigeria. No one doubts that BH has now linked up with Al Qaeda and Somalia’s Al Shabab! Another error has been discussing “Boko Haram”, “Ansarul” (the Malian-related, more internationally-focused brand of Boko Haram) and “Fulani Herdsmen” (the domestic terrorism franchise for the Middle-Belt of Nigeria) as though they were separate groups! Recent evidence confirms as I have always suspected that all are one and the same! Two other facts are evident-the Nigerian state will be wise to investigate the linkages to Sudan in Nigerian terrorism. The media expose by a retired ambassador, Bola Dada and the recent escape of Nyanya bombing suspect, Aminu Sadiq Ogwuche to that country suggests that Sudan plays a significant role in nurturing Nigeria’s Islamic fundamentalists!!! More troubling is the likelihood that elements in the armed forces and security services may be involved in sabotaging operational strategies and information in the war against BH! Nigerian soldiers evidently believe so, going by the mutiny against the now withdrawn GOC in Maiduguri, Major General Ahmadu Mohammed!!! The internationalization of the “war” against BH in the aftermath of the Chibok school girls’ abduction and involvement of US, France (which thankfully achieved a breakthrough in regional cooperation incorporating Nigeria, Cameroun, Chad, Benin and Niger), Britain, China and Israel may be useful in addressing the problem. On the other hand, the development may signal the weakening of the Nigerian state and its possible decline! The critical question Nigeria and the international community avoids confronting is “who provides the funding and logistics for Boko Haram, Fulani Herdsmen and other terrorists groups operating in Nigeria?” Does anyone really believe that “Imam Shekau” is the “leader” of the group that has been tormenting our nation for the past three years? (I am inclined to the DSS position that Shekau is a “title” and “identity”, just like “Abu Qaqa” and is really a dispensable image rather than substantive leader) How does Shekau, who operates in the border regions of the North-East record and upload his videos and transmit them to AFP? How do the Hilux vans, rocket launchers and arms and ammunition deployed by Boko Haram get to Shekau and his men? We know where the foot soldiers of Boko Haram are, but who are the brains and wallets of Boko Haram, and where are they? While we ponder these questions, Nigeria’s President Jonathan confirms that Boko Haram has now killed twelve thousand innocent citizens!!!

Chibok, WEFA and #BringBackOurGirls

In the wake of GDP rebasing, what was meant to be Nigeria’s “coming-out party”, the World Economic Forum for Africa (WEFA) held in Abuja from May 7-9, 2014 was over-shadowed by Nyanya bombings 1 and 2 on April 14 and May 1, and the global #BringBackOurGirls campaign over the 234 Chibok school girls abducted by “Boko Haram” also on April 14. What could have been our moment of glory became less glory and more embarrassment due to a combination of cynical deployment of “political terrorism” and government naivety and incompetence. President Jonathan’s governing credibility suffered massive domestic and global erosion and his administration was left looking callous, insensitive and detached from reality! The Nigerian government’s shocking tolerance (even inoculation borne out of timidity, political naiveté and apparent internal sabotage) and ambivalence for terror, kidnapping and death by “Boko Haram” and “Fulani Herdsmen” since 2009 came home to haunt at its most vulnerable moment-with global media attention focused on Nigeria for WEFA 2014. The sensible hypothesis has to be that terror was deployed as an instrument of political strategy in Nigeria and an out-of-touch and distracted government fell right into it! Government dithered and vacillated over appropriate responses to Boko Haram terrorism when it started in 2009 and only after 4,000 people were dead years later, and massive destruction wrought by the bloodthirsty terrorists that a state of emergency was declared in the North-East in May 2013. At a point the Nigerian government was actually persuaded (along with the US State Department under Hillary Clinton) that its best interest was served by not designating Boko Haram a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) apparently on the contradictory logic that doing so would alienate the North from the Nigerian and United States governments. That logic made no sense since leading Northerners had stressed over and over again that Boko Haram represented neither Northern Nigeria nor Islam! It was only after severe escalation and Clinton left the State Department that the US declared the terrorist group a FTO! Ditto “Fulani Herdsmen” which killed thousands across central Nigeria for several years before a serious military onslaught was authorised just weeks ago! In 2014 alone, Boko Haram has murdered an estimated 2,000 additional citizens plus a rising death toll from mysterious “herdsmen” who carried AK 47s and in at least one case in Benue State, allegedly chemical weapons! The combined casualty from both groups (the military now say they were really one group (!) which like a multi-product company adopted two different brands for different geographical markets-“Boko Haram” in the North-East and “Fulani Herdsmen” in Central Nigeria) may now have topped 10,000 unfortunate Nigerians in less than five years!!! In the particular case of the Chibok schoolgirls’ abduction, it seems evident that security agencies convinced the Presidency that the abduction may have been an opposition (Borno State Government) hoax to stop its Kano PDP rally and derail its political momentum prompting initial nonchalance and absence of a robust military response. It also appears that the military may have been (deliberately?) tardy in its response perhaps an indication of frustration over perceived politicisation of terrorism and may have subtly ignored Chibok to demonstrate its unhappiness, except of course if the army simply lacked the men and materials to respond appropriately. The President’s comments in his media interview two weeks after the abductions; his wife’s public comments; and statements by leading government people, including Akwa Ibom Governor Akpabio all suggest they were not convinced an abduction really took place. No one expected the matter to degenerate into a global campaign! Today there seems to be no doubt that 276 girls were actually captured by the Islamic terrorists and 234 remain unaccounted for. It also seems clear that the abducted girls were predominantly if not entirely Christians while most of those who were reported to have “escaped” may have been Moslem girls released by the terrorists. The saga raises questions about the integrity of our security infrastructure and the quality and veracity of intelligence and information reaching the presidency. It also calls to question the role of the National Security Adviser, Inspector General of Police and Defense Minister, as well as army GOC in the region in compromising the safety and security of our citizens and bringing this country to global disrepute. The President in particular has been advertised on the global stage as “derelict” in his responsibility to protect our citizens and his global reputation has been greatly dented. It remains to be seen how #Chibok234 and #BringBackOurGirls will affect the 2015 elections, but it is clear that President Jonathan may have lost a “few” votes. On the other hand, elections are still several months away and he can still win some back! Beyond the unfortunate Chibok affair, the WEFA Abuja 2014 appears to have gone reasonably well in the circumstances. Global investors will shrug off outrage over the Chibok affair and quietly continue investing (in Southern Nigeria (!) unfortunately, until terrorism ends) while aid money will accelerate the trend towards the Northern half. According to news reports, 1070 business and political leaders from 70 countries attended WEFA with the Chinese pledging additional $10bn credit (totaling $30bn) plus additional $2bn in China-Africa Development Fund (totaling $5bn) and a coastal rail project in Nigeria; development partners committed $2bn into Nigeria’s power sector; and agriculture commitments for Nigeria reached $4bn. For now however, the priority must be ensuring that each and everyone of the 234 girls who remain with Boko Haram are returned to their families.

The Ironsi Syndrome (Repeat)

General J.T.U Aguiyi-Ironsi the unintended beneficiary of Majors Ifeajuna and Nzeogwu’s abortive coup of January 15, 1966, took power largely unprepared for its political and administrative implications. Outside the barracks and battle-field, he was out of his elements! Adewale Ademoyega in his book, “Why We Struck” wrote that Nzeogwu and himself quickly christened Ironsi’s a “do-nothing government”, described him as “non-revolutionary and reactionary” and noted that Ironsi’s primary governing strategy was the “ill-conceived notion of placating the Northerners”. His job admittedly wasn’t easy given prevailing circumstances! Max Siollun in “Oil, Politics and Violence: Nigeria’s Military Coup Culture 1966-1976” noted “as the pattern of killings in the January coup emerged, Northern soldiers became increasingly enraged by the murder of their two most senior politicians…and their four most senior soldiers by Igbo officers”. Being Igbo, Ironsi betrayed guilt complex in relations with the North and resorted to appeasement. Siollun documented Ironsi’s dilemma-“if Aguiyi-Ironsi bowed to Northern pressure and immediately tried the Majors, he would face a backlash from Southern officers, many of whom held sensitive military posts. If he went with Southern opinion and released them, he might be faced with a mutiny by Northern soldiers…Aguiyi-Ironsi was caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place…it proved impossible to keep both sides simultaneously content.” Both Lt. Col David Ejoor and “Black Scorpion” Benjamin Adekunle also stated they didn’t envy Ironsi’s position! Ironically even though Ironsi’s Supreme Military Council (SMC) eventually scheduled public trial of the mutineers for October 1966, he would be dead and buried before then! Ironsi appointed relatively junior Lt. Colonel Yakubu Gowon as Army Chief of Staff “based on a desire to redress the imbalance caused as a result of the killings of officers of Northern origin” but “however his good intentions were mistaken in certain quarters and he was seen as a weakling who sought to over-appease the Northern elements in the army and by implication, the Northerners in general” (General Phillip Effiong, Ojukwu’s eventual deputy in “Nigeria and Biafra: My Story”) Brigadier Ogundipe had been under the impression that he was summoned back from abroad to head the army and was initially unsure what his responsibilities at the “Supreme Headquarters” were. Effiong says, “in retrospect, it could be argued that this (Gowon’s appointment) was Ironsi’s palpable mistake”. Ironsi also appointed Kam Salem as Police Inspector General and M. D Yusuf as Head of Police Special Branch (Intelligence) placing his entire security in Northern hands!!! Ironsi’s personal orderly and bodyguard and one of his ADCs were also Northerners! In spite of appeasement however, Northern anger rose, rather than ebb! Apart from a desire to see the mutinous officers punished, the North was incensed by two other Ironsi decisions-planned rotation of military governors and battalions, and the infamous Decree 34 which purported to unify the civil services of the regions and federation. Even though all members of the SMC took part in these erroneous decisions, Northern leaders took it as Ironsi’s Igbo conspiracy to enslave the North! According to General Alexander Madiebo, General Officer of the Biafran Army, (“The Nigerian Revolution and the Biafran War”) “the plot to overthrow General Ironsi’s government was slow, deliberate and systematic” and Siollun concurs that “plotting by the Northern officers was carried out almost openly” with Lt. Colonel Murtala Muhammed, then Inspector of Signals and Majors Martin Adamu and Theophilus Danjuma as leaders. Danjuma and Lieutenant Walbe were part of Ironsi’s security detail!!! Madiebo believes that the plot was hatched at Ahmadu Bello University and executed by academics, civil servants, politicians and military officers of Northern origin. Madiebo agrees that Ironsi “aspired to rule successfully by compromise. For this reason, he tried to placate those who sought to destroy him and took no action on various substantiated reports available to it concerning plans to overthrow it”. Many senior Northern officers openly called for a coup, particularly Murtala Muhammed and Hassan Katsina. Muhammed openly called Ironsi a “fool” and Katsina declared that when Northerners were ready for their own coup, it would be very “bloody indeed” and conducted in broad daylight! Northern participants at a platoon commanders’ course in Kaduna (including one Lieutenant Abacha!) sent an anonymous letter to Gowon warning senior Northern officers to act or else they would; restiveness of Northern rank and file prompted a security review led by Ogundipe but no pre-emptive action was taken. A meeting of Emirs and Chiefs in June 1966 demanded abrogation of Decree 34 and return to the pre-coup regional status quo; punishment for participants in the January coup; and no investigations must be conducted into the May 1966 riots in which up to 3,000 Southerners were killed. These demands demonstrated that Ironsi’s emboldened adversaries now recognised he could be pushed around without consequences!!! On June 19, 1966, based on very credible reports of an imminent coup, Madiebo rushed to Lagos to inform Ironsi, who responded by inviting Gowon, Kam Salem and MD Yusuf to listen to Madiebo’s account. The three gentlemen naturally denied the report and Madiebo was chastised for rumour-mongering! In Madiebo’s words, “Ironsi had lost his last opportunity to survive by asking the very people who were alleged to be plotting to overthrow him to investigate their plot and report to him”. By July 29, 1966, Ironsi was dead and Gowon succeeded him!!! *Columnist’s Note-This article was first published on July 25, 2012. It is repeated by inspiration.