The Malian Jihad

The Republic of Mali is a landlocked West African country bounded on the North by Algeria; Niger Republic on the East; Burkina Faso and Cote D’Ivoire to the South; and Senegal and Mauritania in the West. The territory occupied by Mali was part of three historical empires-Ghana, Mali and Songhai and it was a colony of France. The population of Mali is 50% Mande; 17% Fula; 12% Voltaic; 10% Tuareg and 6% Songhai. Like Nigeria, Mali became independent in 1960. In January 2012, a Tuareg rebellion started in the North by a group known as the Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA). Many of the Tuareg rebels had secured guns and fighting experience from the service of Gadhafi in Libya. On March 22 2012, junior Malian soldiers led by Amadou Sanogo, purportedly disgruntled at then President Amadou Toure’s handling of the Tuareg rebellion, overthrew the government and took power. Ironically it was the confusion (and incompetence) brought about by their coup that facilitated Tuareg victory! By April 6, the MNLA proclaimed the independence of AZAWAD in alliance with Islamist Jihadists of Ansaradine and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb unleashing a period of fundamentalist repression in Northern Mali. The marriage between MNLA and the Islamists would however turn out to be short-lived! The Islamists turned on the Tuaregs, over-running and sidelining them. Islamist strategy appeared to have prevailed and they now set about their objective of establishing an Islamist state allied to Al Qaeda in the deserts of Northern Mali. The naïve Tuaregs have since dropped their demand for secession, but no one trusts them anymore! The Islamists began to “purify” Northern Mali-destroying historic Islamic shrines and the ancient libraries of Timbuktu, imposing harsh punishments for smoking, on women and others. Alarmed, the international community at the levels of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), African Union and the UN Security Council eventually began to notice the step-by-step creation of another “Afghanistan”, this time in Mali with not-too-distant proximity to Europe! It was clear that left unchallenged, the emerging terrorist state would threaten the rest of West Africa, and imminently Europe as well! The UN Security Council duly passed Resolution No 2071 (2012) mandating the establishment of an International Military Force based on ECOWAS requests and resolutions transmitted through an ECOWAS letter of September 2012 to the Security Council requesting a Security Council Resolution authoring deployment of a stabilization force in Mali under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. The international community then dragged its feet for several reasons-funding, logistics, inertia, subtle pro-Islamist propaganda that encouraged dialogue while allowing the Malian Islamists to consolidate…..and as it later turned out, make a push southwards towards Konna and ultimately if unchallenged Bamako, the capital! That was the last straw, at least for France!!! On January 11, 2013, France launched a ferocious intervention “Operation Serval” with vigorous airstrikes to prevent the Islamists from taking over Bamako, and to drive them out of Northern Mali. Nigeria is a direct stakeholder in events in Mali. We already have our own Islamist rebellion concentrated in the North-Eastern parts of the country, but reaching across many parts of the entire North. Two terrorist groups are now known to be active-Boko Haram, with roots in Borno and Yobe, but with a portfolio of attacks in Abuja, Kano, Kaduna, Adamawa, Kogi, Bauchi, Taraba, Sokoto and elsewhere across Northern Nigeria. A new, more internationalist and potentially more dangerous group, “Ansarul” (notice the similarity with Mali’s Ansaradine!) has emerged. Ansarul has already claimed responsibility for an audacious attack on Nigerian troops deploying to Mali!!! In an article titled, “Today Mali, Tomorrow Nigeria”, Africa expert Richard Dowden warns, “the Sahara now looks like a springboard for the advance of militant Islam….the North of the country, the Sahara desert, has been home to Salafist rebels pushed out from Algeria in the late 1990s and targeted by militant Islamist movements inspired and funded by Saudi Wahhabi Islamic fundamentalists preaching Jihad against the West” (http://africanarguments.org) He also quotes African Confidential thus, “the Islamists are targeting Mauritania next, with its rich fishing grounds and mineral wealth, and then Niger, which has uranium and oil….but the biggest prize would be the destabilization of Nigeria to the South East” Obviously President Jonathan is privy to security information along the same lines! In his letter to the Senate requesting ratification of his deployment of Nigerian troops in support of the French-led intervention, Jonathan wrote, "if the crisis in Mali is not quickly contained, it may spill over to Nigeria and other West African countries with great security and political consequences”. In fact the Nigerian Army Chief, Lt. Gen Azubike Ihejirika affirmed on January 17, 2013 that “we have evidence that some of the terrorists operating in Nigeria today were trained in Mali. As of yesterday, we were aware of the influx of some terrorists trained in Mali into the country”. In effect Nigeria’s intervention in Mali is based on sensible self-interest. It is better to stop the terrorists in Mali, rather than wait until they are institutionalized and eventually confront us at home!!! It also projects Nigeria positively in the international community and sends the right message to our domestic terrorists-you will not prevail!

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Nigeria

I am quite pleased to be able to make these few remarks in honour of Dr Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (NOI), Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Minister of Finance (CME/MoF) of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and former Managing Director at the World Bank. I am her bona fide admirer reaching back to her time as Minister for Finance between 2003 and 2006 under the Obasanjo Presidency. Her successes in that era, (along with her colleagues in the economic team and the political will and backing offered by the then Presidency) can never be forgotten-budgetary and fiscal reforms enshrining the oil price based fiscal rule; publication of federal budget allocations; pension reforms; the enactment of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act in 2005; mining reforms enshrined in the Mines and Minerals Act 2007; the Fiscal Responsibility and Public Procurement Acts of 2007; Her role in the establishment of the Debt Management Office even before she came into government; and of course the culmination of all these reforms into the Paris Club debt write-off, were a turning point in Nigeria’s fiscal and macroeconomic management. She also represented a different value system-a confident and competent African, simple and natural individual, committed to excellence based on global standards, and creative and courageous policy maker! I hoped then, that as part of institutionalizing reforms, the ruling elite of the period, would consider inserting NOI in the succeeding administration as Vice-President or at worst, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF). Not only was that not going to happen, but she found herself out of government even before its terminal date! In this second coming however, things are different, and probably less auspicious! The first major difference of course is that her title is longer! CME and MoF! The structure of the National Economic Management Team is also different:- it has the President and Vice-President as Chair and Vice-Chair with NOI as Coordinator, which for various reasons I consider less optimal; It is a larger and in my view less compact and focused team; It contains several business men and may be open to charges of fostering an image, if not the reality of crony capitalism; It is not obvious to the external observer that there is a tight, committed core of real reformers, beyond one or two individuals; We doubt that sufficient political will and sagacity exists at the top, across the Cabinet and Government, within the ruling party etc. in favour of reforms. When NOI was seriously considered last year for the World Bank Presidency, I noted the almost total unanimity behind her candidacy, but I wasn’t deceived-many in government and outside saw her potential exit as an opportunity to put an end to reforms in Nigeria. I must say that while I felt pride in the credibility of her run for that position, I was one of the few who felt Nigeria needed her more than the World Bank! There are more substantial reasons why I say the times are less auspicious-social indicators are worse than in 2006-poverty over 60%; unemployment almost 24%; youth unemployment almost 40%; and insecurity and crime at alarming levels!!! We have a full-fledged insurgency and a major political crisis even though we conspire to act as if things are not as bad as they really are; fundamentalist terrorists have killed over 3,000 people since 2009; 2015 increasingly already appears like a zero sum game and this is just 2013; and the public believes in the perception or reality of escalating corruption, what I now describe as CONGENITAL CORRUPTION-the type that kills the patient!!! Finally is the unfortunate fact that NOI’s credibility on the Nigerian street has been unfairly eroded by last January’s fuel subsidy crisis and unrelenting social media propaganda. One of the supreme ironies of the times is that much of her adverse publicity may be generated from sources with which she was allied in earlier times! Macroeconomic indices still look good (GDP growth over 6%, FX reserves over $40billion; exchange rates stable around $155-160, with the key issues being inflation which is still over 12%, and interest rates, but my personal view is that given the defective structure of our GDP with sub-modern, low-value agriculture, crude oil and gas, wholesale and retail trade and telecommunications accounting for 80%, Nigeria must shift its focus from GDP to Human Development. Our critical objectives ought to be dealing with unemployment and poverty. I acknowledge small steps like the “You-Win” Programme, but the impact of others, including SURE-P have been less visible! We must focus on education-good quality education, healthcare, public mass transportation and transport infrastructure. Economic reforms and diversification to optimize sectors such as power, transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, mining, construction and hotels, restaurants and tourism will help create jobs and reduce poverty. And if we do not deal with crime and insecurity, whatever we do will be sub-optimal. Of course we must deal with corruption!!! I must acknowledge areas of progress-the imminence (hopefully!) of power privatization, agricultural sector reforms and works-in-progress regarding critical infrastructure while noting that as the nation embarks on the road to 2015, appetite for downstream petroleum sector deregulation may have been completely lost in government!!! On a different note, I recall hearing loud grumbles from sources close to the Lagos State Government about the management of external debt portfolios (and Ben Akabueze, who should be here, will probably concur!). I am sure that as Federal Minister for Finance, our honouree acts in the interest of all our states and peoples whether she’s arranging external debts or filling high positions of state and she will continue to support this state! And this feedback-I have a friend, a CEO who knowing my admiration for NOI regularly asks me whenever some controversial policy or news emerges from this administration, whether regarding aviation, pensions, petroleum or other sectors, “Opeyemi, are you sure NOI is coordinating all these things?” As I close, I note that when the global community focuses on Nigeria, they usually mention two outstanding individuals, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Lagos Governor, Babatunde Fashola (SAN). NOI epitomizes the best of Nigeria-knowledge, industry, creativity, confidence and resourcefulness, just as in a metropolitan sense, Lagos does! I congratulate Ndigbo for producing this pride of Nigeria and Africa and pray that she and Nigeria will fulfill their global destinies, an eventuality that may be inextricably linked. *This speech was prepared for the “Ndigbo Lagos” Reception for Okonjo-Iweala on January 11, 2013.

Person of the Year 2012

I didn’t have too much difficulty selecting this column’s 2012 person of the year. I’ve been thinking a lot about the leadership deficit in Nigeria and in fact globally. The world used to have great leaders of courage and vision. These were not perfect individuals, but they were ready to fight for big ideals; willing to challenge their peoples; willing to pursue their vision for their nations; willing to lead even when their political careers might be endangered thereby…great men and women like Nelson Mandela, John F Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Winston Churchill. Today political leaders across the world have no deeply-held views, with public opinion polls telling leaders what to believe! If the polls say same-sex marriage will tip an election in your favour, then your views evolve in that direction! The “big” debates in the West now are over homosexual marriages, abortion, debts and deficits and marijuana! No leader is challenging his nation to go anywhere, like Kennedy audaciously did; no leader will consider staying in prison for 2 years, not to talk of 27 based on some conviction. Now leadership is all about the next election and projecting personal charisma lacking a backbone in vision and values. Nigeria has of course fared worse than the West in terms of leadership. At independence we got as national leader a second-in-command Balewa who became not Prime Minister, but arbitrator-in-chief followed by a succession of weak leaders with poor vision and low understanding of policy and power going right through Aguiyi-Ironsi (who could only lead a military battalion!), Gowon (who wondered what to do with all the resources at his disposal), Murtala Mohammed (bold, but also brash, reckless and often unthinking), Obasanjo 1 (who didn’t want to die!), Shagari (who should really have been a Senator!), Buhari (extremely limited in policy and administration as well as ethnic, religious and democratic tolerance), Babangida (politically sagacious but deficient in values and character), and Abacha (oh how low we sunk!). Shonekan, Abdulsalam (and even Yar’adua) were defacto and/or de jure interim administrations in the same mold as Balewa, Gowon and Shagari. Obasanjo 2 was the only instance of some leadership, but even that was blighted by his other political weaknesses! And there’s no point saying anything about Goodluck Jonathan’s leadership skills! If you look across the political and governance spectrum, it wouldn’t take you long to conclude that Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) of Lagos has offered a refreshing differentiation from our dismal record of visionless leadership, weak policy understanding and poor governance that has characterized the history of our nation and its sub-national constituents! He is this column’s Person of the Year 2012! In just five and a half years, he has changed the face of Lagos State in terms of roads and infrastructure, social investments in education, healthcare, sports and social welfare, culture and tourism etc. There is no sector in Lagos that has not experienced transformation. And contrary to some notions, development has been taken across the nooks and crannies of Lagos-in Alimosho, Ojuelegba, Mushin, Badagry, Ikorodu, Lekki, Obalende, Ifako-Ijaiye, Ilasamaja…everywhere there are new roads and bridges, new skills acquisition centres, new classrooms and courtrooms, sports centres, health centres and general hospitals and other infrastructure establishing the functionality of government and its impact on the people. The consequence in the context of overall national failure of governance is a continuous wave of migration into Lagos! He is an intellectual and an executor in government and has remained so, constantly reminding himself that he has a job to do, (not just an office to occupy) and he has limited time to do it. When you listen to him, you get the sense of something who has thought long and hard about the issues he speaks about. His government obviously seeks to govern on the basis of research and constant and intensive policy reviews, probably one of the few national or sub-national governments in Nigeria so to do. He has also proved willing to take unpopular decisions, once he’s convinced he’s acting in the public interest. His Okada ban is probably the best example of this attribute. Unlike many so-called leaders across the world, he’s willing to lead rather than be led by polls where appropriate! Those are the reasons I selected Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), Governor of Lagos State as this column’s Person of the Year. I considered other possibilities of course-federal agriculture minister, Dr Akinwunmi Adesina being his closest rival. He is transforming the agriculture sector based on sound knowledge and sensible policy and if he stays long enough on the job, our country will be the better for it. I also considered Professor Barth Nnaji who as Power Minister pushed power sector privatization and the regime’s Power Sector Road Map a considerable distance before Abuja got rid of him. Others included Nobel Laureate Professor Wole Soyinka who continues even as he advances in age, to be one of the strongest positive influences of our nation; Governor Chibuike Amaechi who has taken major developmental strides in Rivers State, but appears increasingly distracted by his role in the so-called Nigerian Governors Forum and his party’s unending power plays; Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger State, Aliko Dangote, Aig Aig-Imoukhuede, Tony Elumelu, re-elected Governors Adams Oshiomhole and Olusegun Mimiko and Ms Bola Onagoruwa, the departed Head of the Bureau of Public Enterprises. I didn’t consider President Goodluck Jonathan.