Political Scenarios

Where is our politics going? As President Umaru Yar’adua approaches the mid-point of his four-year term, this question is not irrelevant! Why is Abubakar Atiku engineering reconciliation with his erstwhile boss and latter-day foe, Olusegun Obasanjo? Why is Muhammadu Buhari seeking a more trustworthy base for his political adventures or trying to seize the reins of the present one which has proven to be unreliable under its present leadership? Why is there a silent repositioning and re-alignment in Yoruba politics? Why are the Governors organising themselves into a potent and powerful political pressure group? Everyone can pretend not to notice, but clearly there is an elephant in the room! The jostling for 2011 has begun!!!

As unlikely as it may appear, the first assumption must be that the President will be (or will attempt to be) a candidate in 2011. A sitting president is always a formidable opponent in an election, especially in a political system that is dependent on patronage and in which all prosperity flows from the government. And in a presidential system in which the president basically controls the ruling party, which controls an overwhelming majority of state governments and seats in the federal legislature. But several factors will militate against the President’s attempt to seek a second term, and significant constituencies-locally and perhaps internationally as well, may be inclined to discourage him from pursuing that course of action. On the other hand, current beneficiaries of the power vacuum in Abuja will insist that he ignores such voices. It remains to be seen how fate and destiny will play out!

Of course you can expect Atiku Abubakar to be a candidate as well, either by challenging Yar’adua for the PDP ticket, by persuading him against running or by running on the platform of another party which may or may not be the AC. He will remain a formidable candidate. Many in the system are still sympathetic to him. If his negotiations with Obasanjo and others in the PDP are successful he may return to the PDP, but he may learn one or two lessons from others in the past who thought they had a deal with Obasanjo! But then it may be in the mutual interest of both to cooperate and PDP power blocks like James Ibori, Alamieyesegha and other politicians of the 1999 to 2007 era may swing to his side. Don’t write off Atiku.

Buhari will of course run. His preference will remain seizing the ANPP machinery, but if that fails, he can always concoct an alternative party platform. He remains the most popular Hausa/Fulani politician and remains favoured in the religious and traditional constituencies up north as well as amongst the masses who view him as pious and righteous, in contrast to the other suspects. If Yar’adua is not a candidate, Buhari can win, and even if he is, Buhari will still be a threat. But the average Nigerian politician is afraid of entrusting power to him, and Southerners and Christians will still be uncomfortable with a Buhari presidency, especially as crisis in Jos and other places revive inter-religious suspicion.

By 2011, several governors will have completed their two terms-Bukola Saraki of Kwara, Danjuma Goje of Gombe, Modu Sherrif of Borno, Ibrahim Shekari of Kano and Idris of Kogi. As has become the pattern, many of these gentlemen will seek to remain relevant by becoming Senators, Ministers or party leaders. Expect some of them to challenge for the presidency. And some may actually be formidable, Buki Saraki (and perhaps Goje) being an obvious one. Down South, Gbenga Daniel and Olagunsoye Oyinlola (all things being equal) will also be completing their second terms and will also be re-positioning. Daniel may offer himself as a candidate for Vice-Presidency and Oyinlola will not offer himself but may be offered. The real contest in Yoruba land will however be between Bola Tinubu and Obasanjo.

What will happen to the political parties? I have always believed the real problem of our democracy is not the Constitution, but the weak political party system. My hope has always been for a strong two party system, one “a little to the left and the other a little to the right”. Each of the two should transcend ethnic and religious boundaries and both ideally should be internally consistent with broadly compatible membership. Can this emerge? I hope so, but I do not know. The PDP always threatens to splinter, but the allure of money and power is a stronger glue. If Atiku goes back to the PDP with the core of the PDM, the AC will become fully Tinubu’s show and will attempt to provide that “left-of-centre” alternative to the PDP. And you can never underrate Bola Tinubu.

Ideally the AC-minus-Atiku would try to attract Segun Mimiko of Labour (who may yet be governor of Ondo State!), Peter Obi of APGA and others across the country. If the PDP splits, it should try to gain Governors Jang of Plateau, Sule Lamido of Jigawa and other progressives presently in the PDP. But then as already mentioned, the death of the PDP has always been greatly exaggerated!