Wednesday, March 31, 2010

The Church in Nigeria

Archbishop Peter J Akinola recently retired as Primate of the Anglican Church of Nigeria after a very eventful and evidently successful tenure. He was also Bishop of Abuja; Chairman of the Council of Anglican Provinces in Africa; Chairman of the “South-South Encounter” of the Anglican Communion and President of the Christian Association of Nigeria”. Bishop Akinola was most known worldwide for his opposition to the ordination of homosexuals within the Anglican Communion. In 2003, he led a revolt against the planned ordination of Jeffrey John and Gene Robinson as Bishops of Reading and New Hampshire respectively precipitating a crisis in the Communion when the US Episcopals proceeded with Gene Robinson’s ordination. He became leader of a newly formed Convocation of Anglicans in North America, Anglicans who preferred to join with Akinola and the African Bishops who were irrevocably opposed to the ordain these homosexuals in the face of the explicit condemnation of homosexuality in several parts of the Bible.
Many true Christians in Nigeria, including non-Anglicans (and this columnist) were justifiably proud of, and encouraged by the leadership and principled position taken by Akinola. TIME Magazine was also impressed and nominated the Bishop as one of the 100 most influential people in the world in 2006, recognising him in the category of leaders and revolutionaries. Bishop Akinola chose fidelity to the scriptures rather than bending to the will of the western Anglican Church, which appears to have lost its way. I have however wished that Bishop Akinola would devote the same zeal he put to work against homosexuality towards issues which plague the church and society in Nigeria such as witchcraft and occultism, polygamy, election rigging, poor governance and most importantly corruption!
It is clear that there is a spiritual dimension to the problems we face in Nigeria! We have heard of politicians many of whom profess Christianity who kill hunchbacks, pregnant women and engage in other forms of human sacrifice to secure victory in elections! How can anything good come out of the reign of such a person if he indeed gets elected into office? How can an office holder who “won” his election through violence and intimidation of his constituents leading to the death and maiming of several govern in a manner acceptable to God or even men? Corruption has subverted Nigerian society and the church appears complicit in this regard. No one asks where the funds donated at Church events by political office holders, civil servants and even bankers come from. We shout “Praise the Lord…The Lord is good”, receive the fruits of corruption into the house of God (and thus defile the temple of God) and pray that God will replenish the (corrupt) source from which the resources came. Incidents of corruption, whether in banks or publicly-quoted companies, involve Christians, regrettably especially of the Pentecostal variety. When there is talk about an abuse of import duty waivers, the Church is implicated. When Ministers are accused of padding budgets, Christians are well-represented. In contemporary Nigerian Christianity, there seems to be no conflict between corruption and our faith!
An Anglican in the US or UK may scoff at our Bishops’ fervent denunciation of homosexuality and wonder why their voices are not heard in respect of many of these social problems bedevilling our own society and militating against the physical and spiritual well-being of our people. Fortunately towards the end of his tenure, Bishop Akinola began to speak strongly and powerfully against corruption, which is more than we can say about many of his ecclesiastical colleagues. At one event, where virtually the entire national political leadership elite were present, the Bishop railed and cursed those involved in corruption, much like Jesus Christ would have done against the Pharisees. Some others in the Church are also beginning to confront these issues and seeking to reclaim the credibility of the Church. Otherwise on-lookers would assume the Church is silent because it is compromised. Recently at the ceremony at which Bishop Akinola’s successor, Nicholas Okoh was installed as Primate, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan challenged the Church on such matters. He recounted an incident in which some crime was committed by an individual and the fellow’s church members immediately rallied to bail him out. Jonathan wondered whether the church had any moral duty to examine the allegations against the “brother” before the church got itself involved in the matter.
I have written before that the purpose of the Church is not to be conformed to the world, but to be the light or salt of the earth. That transformational role of the Church is not being fulfilled in our times. This Easter, as we reflect on the life of Christ who transformed mankind in his short mortal existence, perhaps we should seek to reclaim that mandate for societal transformation. Happy Easter!

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Memo to Goodluck Jonathan

Dear Acting President

I have refrained from offering my views on what your priorities should be as President until you offered signals that your Presidency would be a real and not notional one. The strategy of your adversaries has been to delay or diminish your ascension to power in order to render you at best a transitional leader-a regent who occupies the throne in a caretaker and ceremonial manner until a substantive head is chosen. Please Dr Jonathan, do not accept this job description! Irrespective of how long or short your reign is, you are the defacto Head of State and Government of Nigeria, and history would judge you on that basis.

Some of your initial actions demonstrate that you understand what is required-removing Michael Aondoakaa as Attorney General; constituting an Advisory Council headed by General T.Y Danjuma (giving you credibility within the military) and composed generally of accomplished persons; replacing General Sarki Muhktar with Lt. Gen Aliyu Gusau as National Security Adviser; and now dissolving the cabinet, all suggest that you understand the dynamics of power in Nigeria. I am sure you recognise that there are some critical institutions whose leadership you must still replace for your hold on power to be complete and assured. In reconstituting the cabinet, while you cannot ignore political constituencies, you must not allow yourself to be blackmailed into appointing as Ministers persons whose loyalties are to other people.

Apart from loyalty, the critical criteria should be performance and integrity. The time left is short, and so you cannot afford to have ministers who will not hit the ground running. Your ministers should be people with a clear understanding of the sectors to which they would be posted. This condition will be particularly critical for power, Niger-Delta, defence, finance, education, health, aviation, transportation, solid minerals and agriculture ministries. You may also need someone with a credible international voice for the external affairs ministry. Many commentators are advising you to forget about running for office in 2011. I think you should ignore such advice, which is probably offered at the behest of persons who intend to discourage you from running in order that they or their sponsors might run! However your actions in this stint in power must be motivated not by any desire to contest for office, but by the desire to transform Nigeria. The irony will be that transform Nigeria, and all options may be open to you!!!

Given the limited term, you need to be focused on a narrow agenda. I suggest that your priorities have been defined by providence-resolving the crisis in the Niger-Delta; finding a sustainable solution to our embarrassing power shortages; and conducting credible, free and fair elections in 2011. I will personally hope you can also accommodate strong action on the anti-corruption front. This does not mean that other areas of governance will be immaterial, but your priorities will have to be limited to these few to maximise your impact. Your best bet will be to appoint extremely competent and honest ministers so that they may also deliver progress across the board.

As a Niger-Deltan, you are well-placed to deal with the situation in the region. I have written several times that the crisis requires massive investment in infrastructure, especially road, rail and marine transportation, provision of skills training and jobs for the youths, better governance by the state and local governments in the region and security and law enforcement. But the fundamental problem relates to the structure of our federalism which arguments about “resource control”, “true federalism”, revenue allocation etc hint of. I suspect however that dialogue around these fundamentals are better deferred till the post-2011 environment. Concerning power, please be assured that there is no mystery about solving our self-imposed crisis. In 2001, a power policy was produced at the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) at around the same time a Telecommunications Policy was also produced.

Both the telecommunications and power policies in fact became laws-the NCC Act 2003 and the Electric Power Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) 2005 respectively. Nigeria has implemented the telecommunications policy almost to the letter and transformed its communications sector. In contrast, entrenched interests first delayed promulgation of the power policy into law by four years (!) and thereafter frustrated the implementation of the law even after its passage. Instead they have thought up several ruses-National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) and huge government sponsored spending all of which have made no impact. The model in EPSRA will work-privatise the generation and distribution units in PHCN; appoint a credible management for the transmission company, encourage private investment in generation and distribution and allow the regulator, National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) to function. Since 2007, the government has pretended EPSRA does not exist and wasted national resources in a fake search for alternative solutions!

Your other challenge is to conduct a free and fair election in 2011. Many in your party will put you under pressure to reject such a notion. I am convinced that Nigeria cannot survive another rigged election in 2011 after the 2003 and 2007 fiascos. Do not let history record you as the one who presided over the final nail in our nation’s coffin. Conducting credible elections requires you to immediately reconstitute INEC with fair-minded persons of integrity. Professor Iwu and his colleagues cannot command the trust of Nigerians and the international community.

As I mentioned earlier I hope you can also accommodate effective action against corruption. Without that, the resources, will power, as well as local and international support to transform Nigeria will not be available. I wish you and our nation well.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

What About The Economy?

Nigeria has been distracted since November last year by the ill-health of our elected President; his trip to Saudi-Arabia for medical treatment without transmitting a letter to the Parliament; the claim by his then Attorney-General that the president could rule from any where(!); uncertainty over his actual condition, including speculation at one point by one newspaper that he was “brain dead”; confusion over his interview on BBC; debates over whether the Executive Council of the Federation should declare him permanently incapacitated, or the National Assembly should impeach him, or perhaps he should be encouraged to resign from office; arguments over the constitutionality of the declaration of Goodluck Jonathan as Acting President by the National Assembly; outrage at Yar’adua’s pre-emptive return to Nigeria in the dead of night; the deployment of soldiers to receive him without the knowledge or authorisation of the acting President; worries over the country’s democracy, political stability and even national integrity; the “summary judgment” announced by our “Governors’ Forum” that “Yar’adua remains President; and Goodluck remains Acting President”; two religious/ethnic riots in Jos and one in Bauchi before then; etc.
While we focus on all these self-inflicted problems, is anyone thinking about economic development, employment, output, macroeconomic stability (e.g. inflation), private sector growth, financial sector conditions and other such “irrelevances”? The only economic “activities” (at least at the Federal Government level) going on since November 2009 have been award of mega contracts by the Federal Executive Council, the still mysterious signing of Supplementary Appropriation Bill purportedly by the sick President and releases of a total of $3billion from the “Excess Crude Oil Reserves” Account! No wonder inflation has now climbed to 12.3%!
At the same time, the financial sector appears to be grinding to a halt. Any doubts that we were in the midst of a severe monetary and credit contraction have been laid to rest by figures released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) itself at the end of it’s recent (March 1-2, 2010) Monetary Policy Committee meeting. According to the CBN, money supply (M2-Broad Money) declined by 3.11% as against a benchmark growth of 29.26%; aggregate domestic credit contracted by 22.44% instead of a projected benchmark expansion by 82.8%; and credit to the private sector fell by 16.2% as against a benchmark growth of 31.54%. These figures are alarming, and confirm that we are now in the middle of a full scale credit crunch!
Anyone in government interested in the economy will also be worried that inflation which in September 2009 appeared headed for single digits has turned in the other direction. My firm, Resources and Trust Company Ltd is now projecting that inflation may reach 15% in 2010 except the projected level of fiscal expansion is curtailed. So far, there are no indications that anyone worries about that! This is an election year, and the wheels of politics must be oiled! And political uncertainty also has its direct impact on value-for-money on government procurement contracts, as office holders prepare for premature retirement, Nigerian style!!! Meanwhile interest rates are rising as Average Maximum Lending Rate (MLR) and Prime Lending Rate reached 23.18% and 18.38% respectively in January 2010. The nation’s foreign reserves have now fallen to $41.54billion in spite of oil prices averaging between $70 and $80 per barrel. At current run rates, our reserves by year end may be below $35billion!
Critical economic initiatives are stalled. The proposed deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector remains a proposal. With an Acting President finally in power, he seems to want to resolve the issue one way or another, but the risky and uncertain political environment makes such a decision less, not more likely. The upstream petroleum sector is also suffering as the proposed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) remains at the National Assembly. The energy majors have reportedly suspended further investment as the investment environment in Nigerian Energy is completely shrouded in confusion. The Asset Management Company Bill which is critical to restoring liquidity and capital to the beleaguered banking sector also remains at the National Assembly. The solid minerals sector has not received an apparent attention since this administration came into office in 2007 rendering the Mines and Minerals Act passed just before the Yar’adua regime’s now ill-fated entry into power. The Electric Power Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) of 2005 has also been basically ignored by the regime, as the government insists in throwing money, rather than correct strategy after our power problem. The tragedy is that the same government appointed a Minister for Power who was a central part of defining a correct strategy encapsulated in EPSRA, but who lacks the courage to push that law into regime policy. So power generation remains below 3,000 MW and Nigeria remains economically uncompetitive.
Meanwhile global economic conditions are improving. The IMF in January revised its global economic growth projection from 3% in its October 2009 World Economic Outlook (WEO) to 4% in the WEO January 2010 Update. Even though risks remain and global growth is projected to remain uneven, the portents are that global capital and investment flows will slowly resume. The shame is that Nigeria is not positioned to benefit!

Udo Udoma and the SEC Chairmanship

Apparently in our country public office is not supposed to accommodate accomplished professionals and persons of good character and integrity! Another example of this negative hypothesis is Senator Udoma Udo-Udoma’s recent travails as he endures some very uncharitable criticism simply because he accepted the public duty of chairing our Securities and Exchange Commission. Incidentally, Senator Udo-Udoma, the co-founder one of Nigeria’s most successful corporate law firms, Udo Udoma and Bello Osagie, is one of the few professionals who has gotten deeply involved in electoral politics and the national legislature in Nigeria and still has his integrity and reputation intact. Personally I consider him a model of the type of individuals we should encourage to get involved in policy and governance in Nigeria.
Yet it is Udoma who is now been buffeted by criticisms principally from legislators who have not been known to take up the less credible individuals who litter public office in Nigeria. Typical of this pattern of trying to bring down any one who holds himself out as standing for anything worthwhile, it is Senator Udoma who some now attempt to cast in the role of the bad guy. Senator Udo Udoma, in my view is probably one of the best qualified Nigerians to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission, if the criteria for filling that position include professional competence in a field related to Securities and Capital Markets, character and integrity, understanding of public policy issues and laws relating to securities, and independent-mindedness.
He is a partner of a leading corporate law firm with vast experience in Nigerian securities, financial transactions and capital markets; I have not heard anyone question or impugn his character and integrity, in spite of his having been an active player in the rough and tumble of Nigerian politics; he has been a Senator who is familiar with legislative procedure and rule-making; he sits on several important boards including UAC and Unilever; and he is someone who is generally regarded as objective and fair-minded. In any country, he would be an ideal Chair for a Securities and Exchange Commission.
It is necessary in line with this column’s policy that I make some disclosure so that readers can be fully informed. I sit on the board of Chemical and Allied Products Plc, which is a subsidiary of UACN Plc, now chaired by Senator Udoma. I do not however have any personal relationship with him and I do not believe we have ever had any direct personal conversation. We are not friends and have never been mutually involved in any business transactions. I make this disclosure to illustrate the expectation the law and corporate governance has of Senator Udo Udoma. The main ground canvassed by those opposed to his chairmanship of SEC is actual or potential conflict of interest between the SEC position and his UAC Chairmanship. What the law and best practice demands is that he discloses his interest in any matter involving him that come up before SEC and withdraw from decision-making on those matters. Why are the Senate and House Committee Chairs on capital markets seeking to prescribe a higher standard exclusively for Senator Udoma?
A review of global practices on the subject matter will reveal two different models. In the US, the SEC Chairman and Commissioners are executive, full time positions. Indeed S.4a of the US SEC Act 1934 provides that “…no commissioner shall engage in any other business, vocation, or employment than that of serving as commissioner, nor shall any commissioner participate, directly or indirectly, in any stock market operations or transactions of a character subject to regulation by the commission…” This is perfectly understandable since their positions are executive ones. If Senator Udoma were an executive chairman of the Nigerian SEC, he would clearly have to step down from the UAC and other boards. But he is not!
The other model is typified by the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA). Like others have pointed out, several of the non-executive members of the FSA board continue to sit on boards of publicly-quoted companies. Like the Nigerian practice, they would be required to declare their interest and excuse themselves from any matters coming before the FSA for consideration. If the legislature feels better attracted to the US model, of course they may propose legislation to that effect, or amend the current Investment and Securities Act. But they cannot write laws without first enacting them though the due process of law! Thus the hullabaloo over Udoma’s chairmanship of SEC is uncalled for. In my view, it is unlikely that any body who is worthy of appointment as SEC chairman will not sit on any public company boards. If they had to step down upon appointment, we would probably be restricting the pool of potential SEC Chairmen and Board members to neophytes who will not serve the market well.
The additional reason we must discourage the agitation against Udoma is its potential to discourage credible professionals, precisely the type of people we need in such technical positions, from accepting public office.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Back from the Brink? Part 3

Last week I predicted that the swearing-in of Goodluck Jonathan as Acting President was not likely to be the final chapter of the “interesting times” we have been experiencing since November 23 last year. I expected a counter-strategy from the clique which I have described for two weeks running as carrying out “the Turai Coup”. I had thought the primary response of the group would be through the judicial system and that they were likely to take us right back to square one. In the event, the group exceeded themselves and actually almost took us back to square zero! When I got a text early that fateful Wednesday morning warning me to expect the ill Umaru Yar’adua to show up in Abuja, I knew Nigeria was going right back TO the brink!
When I later got reports that the plotters had actually deployed soldiers in and around Abuja; and flown Yar’adua in during the thick of night without the knowledge of the Acting President, it became clear that we were dealing not just with an on-going coup attempt against the constitution as I had previously argued, but with people who are actually prepared to deploy military power in pursuit of their (treasonable) objectives. The statement issued by Segun Adeniyi referring to Jonathan as Vice-President who would hold forte while the President recuperated was the final confirmation that the group expected a return to the scenario in which instructions would be issued by them in the name of Yar’adua which Jonathan, Ministers and other senior government officials were expected to obey without reflection. Last week I likened the plotters to children who ignorant of the risks involved were recklessly playing with explosives. Now they are actually moving dangerously close to pulling the pin from the grenade!
What happened last Wednesday was a reckless attempt by this narrow group of provincial politicians largely from Katsina (Tanimu Yakubu, Sayaddi Abba Ruma, Senator Kanti Bello etc); their collaborators (e.g. James Ibori) and their surrogates (Aondoakaa in particular), their military and security operatives (which according to newspaper accounts include the Army Chief, General Abdulrahman Dambazau; the President’s ADC, Colonel Mustapha Onoyvieta, the Commander of the Brigade of Guards, Abdul Mustapha and Yar’adua’s powerful Chief Security Officer (CSO), Yusuf Muhammad Tilde and led by the First Lady, Turai Yar’adua to subvert the National Assembly’s designation of Jonathan as Acting President and in effect foist Turai on the nation as a de facto President. Implicit in their actions was a willingness and actual deployment of soldiers from the Nigerian Army in aid of their dangerous moves.
It was a complete throw back to the Abacha days when the CSO Major Mustapha and his allies including then Army Chief, General Ishaiya Bamaiyi and other military and security officers isolated the Head of State and began to run the country in his name. Like in the Abacha days, such a stratagem could only be sustained by force and terror and soon that regime unleashed terror across the nation. If the Turai group had succeeded in their audacious power grab last week, they would sooner than later have had to shed any pretences of running a constitutional government and we would soon have returned to some form of military (or otherwise unelected) despotism. In the event, their moves were aborted substantially because of the strong statement issued by the US government and Jonathan’s caution in not holding the executive council meeting that day. It is probable that there were other powerful domestic stakeholders who moved to prevent Nigeria’s slide back into confusion and maybe tragedy.
It is now time for all those who have allowed this shameful set of circumstances to persist since November to step up and put an end to the unending manipulation of the destiny of 150 million Nigerians. It should be obvious now that we are not dealing with rational people. They are so consumed in their ambition and greed that they can’t understand what is possible and what is not achievable. They do not understand that Nigeria has changed since 1966, 1983, 1985 or 1993 when military coups were in vogue. The world itself has changed and in this age of global broadcasting and communications, international criminal courts and genocide indictments for sitting Presidents, no nation can be completely detached from the rest of the world.
But all this game-playing has continued for over three months because the National Assembly, the Courts and the Executive Council of the Federation have all failed in their responsibility towards Nigeria. Justice Dan Abutu of the Federal High Court had several opportunities but failed; the Ministers in the Executive Council (minus Dora Akunyili) continue to cower in cowardice and shirk their duty to the nation; the House Speaker, Dimeji Bankole is seemingly more interested in protecting Yar’adua rather than the nation; the ruling PDP leadership is afraid to act in the interest of the nation lest they lose their benefits from the ailing Presidency; the National Assembly remains timid and half-hearted-they left the loophole that power would return to Yar’adua once he returned to Nigeria, which Senator Iyabo Obasanjo actually pointed out to no avail; and the Governors continue to make selfish individual political calculations rather than recognise the collective threat to our democracy. While all others remain lily-livered, Turai and her group, continue to scheme and plot in so far as they see any glimmer of opportunity.
It is time for Nigeria to put an end to this shame.