Until the protests in Tunisia and Egypt, it was safe to surmise that there was some incompatibility between Arab (and perhaps) Islamic societies and democracy. With few exceptions (Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq), Arab countries were either monarchies, military or one-man dictatorships. Those three exceptions actually re-enforced the argument-Iraqi democracy was imposed by US neo-conservatives and remains unstable; democracy was forced on the Palestinians by the Arab-Israeli peace process; and Lebanon is hardly an example of how democracy is supposed to work. In all three, democracy carries a very high price tag-chaos, instability, political assassinations, the presence of an Islamic movement that threatened to overthrow or undermine the democratic system etc.
Until Tunisia! Tunisia is not yet a democracy, but its people have chased erstwhile President Ben Ali into exile. The ancien regime struggled to hijack the revolution, but the people have stayed steadfast, insisting that the former president’s entourage leave the incipient cabinet. What I found striking is that the whole Arab/Islamic revolutionary democratic wave was sparked by the actions of one desperate Tunisian, Muhammad Bouazizi who, fed up with unemployment, poverty and capricious government , set himself on fire! I do not support suicide in any form, even as an incitement to revolution or as a form of political protest, but his action proves one point-change cannot come except people are willing to pay the price. On international broadcast channels on Sunday February 20, I saw a man who had lost a son in the Bahraini crisis declare he was willing to sacrifice not just that son, but himself and four others for change and reform in his country!
I have called attention in the past to the Nigerian contrast which Fela sang about-“I no wan die, papa dey for house, mama dey for house, I wan build house, I wan buy car…” Like Fela also sang, our people fear those things they see, and even those they don’t see! And the prospect of popular revolution in Nigeria may be short-circuited by any hint of ethnic or religious colouration or agenda to the revolt or its leadership. But back to the Arabs whose turn it is to capture global imagination by their courage and desire for reform. I must confess I did not think Hosni Mubarak could be toppled by the protesters, until after the crowds continued to increase in Tahrir Square in Cairo after more than two weeks of the revolt. No analysis of Egyptian politics or history could have predicted the turn of events, precisely because it was a revolutionary and unprecedented moment! All templates for projecting scenarios in Egypt and indeed the Arab world were rendered redundant because this was a new, uncharted Egypt!
In spite of the distance I shared the pride and sense of accomplishment of many ordinary Egyptians who spoke to CNN, BBC, Al Jazeerah and other global media and sensed as they did that indeed, Egypt and the whole of Arabia may have changed for ever! But it is not over! The old order is giving way, but the new is yet to be defined. Western, Israeli and democratic activists’ fears that the revolution may be hijacked by elements of the departing regimes, the military or Islamists for instance are not completely unfounded. Some analysts have noted that the popular revolution against the Shah of Iran was taken over by the clerics and essentially today’s Iran is as undemocratic as pre-revolutionary Iran. It was ironic observing Iranian ambiguous response to the Egyptian crisis-on the one hand, they may have been happy to see Mubarak’s back and to increase pressure on Israel; on the other hand, revolutionary ferment was rising in Iran itself and the demonstrations in Cairo were likely to be repeated in Teheran!
Now the call for democracy and change is being heard across other Arab societies-Yemen; Bahrain; Morocco; Libya; Algeria; and Jordan. Most surprisingly the loudest noises are in Libya where one may have felt the strongman Ghaddafi had successfully silenced all opposition; and Bahrain where living standards were high and the country’s monarchy would have been considered safe. The protesters who were crushed in post-election demonstrations in Iran last time are also stirring again having received encouragement. Clearly the model of the strongman appears to be expiring in Arabia and the regimes will have to look to non-Arab Islamic examples like Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia which have prospered as democratic societies whether of the secular model (Turkey) or more sectarian options (Indonesia and Malaysia). Hopefully they would not evolve into dysfunctional democracies ala Pakistan!
Beyond the current centres of agitation, the effects of the current wave will be felt elsewhere-Kuwait like Bahrain and other Arab monarchies will have to move towards becoming constitutional monarchies; Iraq and Afghanistan will have more incentive to proceed as democracies rather than follow the Taliban option; the strongmen in Syria and Sudan will in due course receive their own pressure; and Israel will have to quickly resolve the Palestine question or else it will have a potentially explosive and defining “Intifada” on its hands! One day the wave of reform and democracy will spread to Saudi Arabia! Newly democratic Arab countries may become more enterprising and vibrant and should secure a greater voice in global politics and economics. The conclusion from all of these is clear-Freedom is universal and even China may have to make some decisions!
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Nigeria in 2011
It does not require any genius to declare that politics will define Nigeria this year. The intelligent analyst and investor will divide 2011 into two and assume that H1 will be dominated by party nominations, campaigns and elections….and then the aftermath! In short politics will determine the first half of the year; and the outcome of that politics will shape the second half. But there will be other underlying drivers. Globally the pace and sustenance of global recovery; global financial stability; global oil demand and oil (and other commodity) prices; and in West Africa, the crisis in Cote D’Ivoire will also shape developments in Nigeria. The worst of global recession appears over but risks remain, with sovereign debt and its link with financial sector stability. Oil demand appears strong enough to push prices up, but the question is up to what point? And for how long?
Cote D’Ivoire can evolve in many ways-civil war; partition into North or South; military intervention led by ECOWAS but with US, UN and EU support; or most likely Gbagbo is squeezed out through sanctions and adverse economics. Many of these scenarios will affect the region, especially Ghana and Nigeria. Domestically fiscal behaviour is the major concern-will we continue to spend recklessly and continue reserves depletion , or will we adopt more conservative oil price benchmarks and enact a sovereign wealth fund that allows us save for stabilisation, future generations and infrastructure as proposed in the draft bill. If we don’t reverse the rate of foreign reserves depletion and actually begin to build up again, there will be a high price to pay, sooner or later!
The financial sector will also be critical. Last year, the CBN admits credit to the private sector shrank by 4.92%, effectively crowded out by credit to federal, state and local governments which grew by 68% and 19% respectively. In 2011, financial sector conditions will be important. Last year the CBN succeeded in birthing AMCON which promised to help reflate the financial sector and revive the flow of credit to the private sector. The CBN and its Monetary Policy Committee may have snuffed out such hopes! Its concerns about inflation were however legitimate as far as raising the MPR from 6.25% to 6.5%; but I question the wisdom of raising the banks’ liquidity ratio to 30%, and cash reserve requirement to 2%, just so soon, especially before any discernible rise in private sector lending. The lending crunch may yet continue!!!
It will be critical that President Jonathan secures at least two achievements in the energy sector-passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill before the elections and privatisation of the PHCN unbundled entities. It is very possible, with political will, for the president to coax the National Assembly into passing the petroleum bill, but essentially the power privatisation is out of his hands-will rational investors, especially foreign ones put their money in Nigeria just before elections? I expect GDP to grow around 6.5%, with a little political risk discount, but as we have previously pointed out, that will have little or no effect on unemployment, poverty and purchasing power, until we diversify the economy, fix power so that manufacturing and services can grow and improve policy and execution in transportation, solid minerals and agriculture.
In Q4 2010, the NBS data reveals that crude petroleum and gas (15.7%), wholesale and retail trade (16.19%) and agriculture (42.32%) together contribute 74% of our GDP! If we don’t increase, value-adding activities into our national output, then poverty and under-development will continue to prevail, in spite of the macroeconomic picture, which may appear positive. Exchange rates may come under threat in the second half of the year, as government becomes free to act having (hopefully) put elections behind it! Downstream oil sector deregulation may also be a post-election reality. The implication as the CBN fears may be that efforts to achieve single digit inflation may flail in 2011. The telecommunications sector remained by far the fastest growing sector in Nigeria, with hotels and restaurants, building and construction, solid minerals and wholesale and retail trade following behind. Some of these sectors will experience lower growth in 2011.
So back to politics, which will define everything else, both before and after elections. We now know who the major contenders are-President Goodluck Jonathan, of the PDP who is fresh, enjoys incumbency powers and adopts a conciliatory approach that allows him win over adversaries; ex-military ruler, General Mohammadu Buhari of the CPC who is popular in the Hausa-Fulani, Islamic North, and is seeking support down South; outgoing Kano governor, Ibrahim Shekarau who has a populous home base and a slightly resurgent ANPP; and Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the ACN. Though there are scenarios that could conceivably produce a victory for any of these four, the more likely scenario remains a Jonathan victory. Opposition alliances, even if forged in desperation may be fractious and lack internal coherence; and Jonathan’s style may yet see him rally critical stakeholders like former President Ibrahim Babangida, General Aliyu Gusau, Dr Bukola Saraki and former Vice-President Abubakar Atiku, and indeed important Northern constituencies behind him.
Yet crisis scenarios are not impossible! The elections may be fought on the basis of ethnicity, religion and region. And the closer the results, the higher the potential for instability. The best-case scenario as in the PDP conventions will be a clear margin for whoever is the victor!
Cote D’Ivoire can evolve in many ways-civil war; partition into North or South; military intervention led by ECOWAS but with US, UN and EU support; or most likely Gbagbo is squeezed out through sanctions and adverse economics. Many of these scenarios will affect the region, especially Ghana and Nigeria. Domestically fiscal behaviour is the major concern-will we continue to spend recklessly and continue reserves depletion , or will we adopt more conservative oil price benchmarks and enact a sovereign wealth fund that allows us save for stabilisation, future generations and infrastructure as proposed in the draft bill. If we don’t reverse the rate of foreign reserves depletion and actually begin to build up again, there will be a high price to pay, sooner or later!
The financial sector will also be critical. Last year, the CBN admits credit to the private sector shrank by 4.92%, effectively crowded out by credit to federal, state and local governments which grew by 68% and 19% respectively. In 2011, financial sector conditions will be important. Last year the CBN succeeded in birthing AMCON which promised to help reflate the financial sector and revive the flow of credit to the private sector. The CBN and its Monetary Policy Committee may have snuffed out such hopes! Its concerns about inflation were however legitimate as far as raising the MPR from 6.25% to 6.5%; but I question the wisdom of raising the banks’ liquidity ratio to 30%, and cash reserve requirement to 2%, just so soon, especially before any discernible rise in private sector lending. The lending crunch may yet continue!!!
It will be critical that President Jonathan secures at least two achievements in the energy sector-passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill before the elections and privatisation of the PHCN unbundled entities. It is very possible, with political will, for the president to coax the National Assembly into passing the petroleum bill, but essentially the power privatisation is out of his hands-will rational investors, especially foreign ones put their money in Nigeria just before elections? I expect GDP to grow around 6.5%, with a little political risk discount, but as we have previously pointed out, that will have little or no effect on unemployment, poverty and purchasing power, until we diversify the economy, fix power so that manufacturing and services can grow and improve policy and execution in transportation, solid minerals and agriculture.
In Q4 2010, the NBS data reveals that crude petroleum and gas (15.7%), wholesale and retail trade (16.19%) and agriculture (42.32%) together contribute 74% of our GDP! If we don’t increase, value-adding activities into our national output, then poverty and under-development will continue to prevail, in spite of the macroeconomic picture, which may appear positive. Exchange rates may come under threat in the second half of the year, as government becomes free to act having (hopefully) put elections behind it! Downstream oil sector deregulation may also be a post-election reality. The implication as the CBN fears may be that efforts to achieve single digit inflation may flail in 2011. The telecommunications sector remained by far the fastest growing sector in Nigeria, with hotels and restaurants, building and construction, solid minerals and wholesale and retail trade following behind. Some of these sectors will experience lower growth in 2011.
So back to politics, which will define everything else, both before and after elections. We now know who the major contenders are-President Goodluck Jonathan, of the PDP who is fresh, enjoys incumbency powers and adopts a conciliatory approach that allows him win over adversaries; ex-military ruler, General Mohammadu Buhari of the CPC who is popular in the Hausa-Fulani, Islamic North, and is seeking support down South; outgoing Kano governor, Ibrahim Shekarau who has a populous home base and a slightly resurgent ANPP; and Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the ACN. Though there are scenarios that could conceivably produce a victory for any of these four, the more likely scenario remains a Jonathan victory. Opposition alliances, even if forged in desperation may be fractious and lack internal coherence; and Jonathan’s style may yet see him rally critical stakeholders like former President Ibrahim Babangida, General Aliyu Gusau, Dr Bukola Saraki and former Vice-President Abubakar Atiku, and indeed important Northern constituencies behind him.
Yet crisis scenarios are not impossible! The elections may be fought on the basis of ethnicity, religion and region. And the closer the results, the higher the potential for instability. The best-case scenario as in the PDP conventions will be a clear margin for whoever is the victor!
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
The Progressive Agenda
Who is a progressive? The term is used in Nigeria today in much the same way we abuse other terms-“reforms” or “reformers”, “Christian” or “Alhaji”, ”Honourable”, “Chief”, “Doctor”, “mega”, “Mogul” etc such that the term becomes almost meaningless! If a politician joins a party which has allocated to itself the tag of “progressives”, he or she immediately becomes one. When he decamps to the opposition, he ceases to be a progressive, and when he returns he retrieves the progressive logo. We have for instance seen a trend in which any party the ACN is negotiating a merger or alliance with becomes progressive while the partnership discussions are in progress, and stops being progressive once the discussions break down.
Today some people describe General Muhammadu Buhari as a progressive. Recently the ANPP, which in my view is the most conservative political grouping in Nigeria (it is in fact to the right of the PDP which is a centrist party), has also received the “progressive” toga once it commenced alliance talks with the ACN. Put in historical context, the ANPP would be to the right of the first republic Northern Peoples Congress (NPC). General Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is also a far right grouping (which is why most advisers and supporters of General Abacha would be comfortable therein) with no policy platform that would recommend it as progressive.
Perhaps I could suggest some individuals who most “progressives” would agree can use the term-Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Mallam Aminu Kano, Chief Anthony Enahoro, Professor Chike Obi, Chief J. S Tarka, Chief J. S Olawoyin and Alhaji Kashim Imam. What did these people have in common? They were socialists or social democrats. Their policy orientation was centred around social investments-mass education and health services and employment generation, for instance. They were concerned with egalitarian policies aimed at emancipating the “masses”. They typically were federalists recognising the fact that the best constitutional structure for a multi-ethnic, multi-religious nation like Nigeria would be a strong federal arrangement.
They were constitutionalists, who believed in law and order, constitutional supremacy, separation of powers and an independent judiciary and were always willing to use the judiciary to advance the constitutional order. They were democrats who believed in the supremacy of the popular mandate over other forms of power bases. Because of their need to communicate with the masses, they were usually close to the press, which they recognised as the major instrument of connecting and mobilising their audience. Many of them in fact worked as journalists, owned newspaper houses or at the first opportunity set up broadcasting outfits as an instrument of mass mobilisation and public education and communication. Chief Awolowo or Mallam Aminu Kano if they were raised from the dead, would fall down and die again if they saw some of the people we now describe as progressives!
How can we recognise a true “progressive” in these times? I suggest that you can decipher a progressive politician in 2011 Nigeria by what his political and policy agenda are. In my view the progressive agenda is, or ought to be federalism and constitutional reform and restructuring to re-enthrone a true federal system in Nigeria; reform of the political party system in Nigeria to create at least one ideologically-oriented, internally-coherent and democratic, mass-based truly progressive political party; enactment of the freedom of information bill to strengthen public accountability and citizen control over their government; investments in the socio-economic rights of the citizenry especially public education and health services, full employment, mass housing and urban mass transit; improvement in public infrastructure particularly transport and power; agriculture and solid minerals reform including land reform; development of a mortgage finance system to finance housing to low and middle-income workers etc.
This is or should be the progressive platform, not just seeking to frame opportunistic and non-ideological alliances that cannot stand the test of time, and that at best would produce a fractious and unstable government.
Nigerian progressives should be negotiating on the basis of a clear progressive agenda. They should be seeking to persuade the Nigerian people that they are truly different from the rest of the pack, in substance rather than form or by mere propaganda. They should design a political platform and articulate clear policies and communication that can convince the Nigerian people that progressive politics is not dead in Nigeria.
Today some people describe General Muhammadu Buhari as a progressive. Recently the ANPP, which in my view is the most conservative political grouping in Nigeria (it is in fact to the right of the PDP which is a centrist party), has also received the “progressive” toga once it commenced alliance talks with the ACN. Put in historical context, the ANPP would be to the right of the first republic Northern Peoples Congress (NPC). General Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is also a far right grouping (which is why most advisers and supporters of General Abacha would be comfortable therein) with no policy platform that would recommend it as progressive.
Perhaps I could suggest some individuals who most “progressives” would agree can use the term-Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Mallam Aminu Kano, Chief Anthony Enahoro, Professor Chike Obi, Chief J. S Tarka, Chief J. S Olawoyin and Alhaji Kashim Imam. What did these people have in common? They were socialists or social democrats. Their policy orientation was centred around social investments-mass education and health services and employment generation, for instance. They were concerned with egalitarian policies aimed at emancipating the “masses”. They typically were federalists recognising the fact that the best constitutional structure for a multi-ethnic, multi-religious nation like Nigeria would be a strong federal arrangement.
They were constitutionalists, who believed in law and order, constitutional supremacy, separation of powers and an independent judiciary and were always willing to use the judiciary to advance the constitutional order. They were democrats who believed in the supremacy of the popular mandate over other forms of power bases. Because of their need to communicate with the masses, they were usually close to the press, which they recognised as the major instrument of connecting and mobilising their audience. Many of them in fact worked as journalists, owned newspaper houses or at the first opportunity set up broadcasting outfits as an instrument of mass mobilisation and public education and communication. Chief Awolowo or Mallam Aminu Kano if they were raised from the dead, would fall down and die again if they saw some of the people we now describe as progressives!
How can we recognise a true “progressive” in these times? I suggest that you can decipher a progressive politician in 2011 Nigeria by what his political and policy agenda are. In my view the progressive agenda is, or ought to be federalism and constitutional reform and restructuring to re-enthrone a true federal system in Nigeria; reform of the political party system in Nigeria to create at least one ideologically-oriented, internally-coherent and democratic, mass-based truly progressive political party; enactment of the freedom of information bill to strengthen public accountability and citizen control over their government; investments in the socio-economic rights of the citizenry especially public education and health services, full employment, mass housing and urban mass transit; improvement in public infrastructure particularly transport and power; agriculture and solid minerals reform including land reform; development of a mortgage finance system to finance housing to low and middle-income workers etc.
This is or should be the progressive platform, not just seeking to frame opportunistic and non-ideological alliances that cannot stand the test of time, and that at best would produce a fractious and unstable government.
Nigerian progressives should be negotiating on the basis of a clear progressive agenda. They should be seeking to persuade the Nigerian people that they are truly different from the rest of the pack, in substance rather than form or by mere propaganda. They should design a political platform and articulate clear policies and communication that can convince the Nigerian people that progressive politics is not dead in Nigeria.
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