Adventures of a Nation

Had Arik not rescheduled its 9.45am flight to Kaduna on Sunday, June 17 to 10.30am, and then delayed till 11.30am, I would have flown into the city just as bombs were exploding in churches in Kaduna and Zaria and violent reprisals were launched. The delay meant that I learnt about the situation in Kaduna while on the bus from the terminal to the aircraft. Consequently, we had to wait for several hours at Kaduna Airport for things to calm down before proceeding into town. But the respite was temporary as violence resurged again on Monday/Tuesday and, even though I was done with my activities by noon Tuesday, it was impossible to leave Kaduna. The twenty-four hour curfew, which was imposed and lifted after peace returned momentarily, had to be re-instated as fresh killings and maiming resumed on Tuesday. I have read virtually all accounts of Nigerian history, especially the events of 1966 and the ensuing civil war, and I must say I caught a fleeting image of desperate Igbos seeking to leave Northern cities as the pogrom intensified in that era. That image convinced me this country is once again playing with fire and I considered myself lucky to have been able to leave Kaduna by road the next day for Abuja under armed escort, before catching a flight to Lagos. I was fortunate, but hundreds were not – they were killed and maimed needlessly, and the country moved one notch nearer the precipice as Kaduna Christians responded for the first time since Boko Haram terror commenced. Earlier the country was consumed by the bribery scandal that enveloped influential four-term House of Representatives member Farouk (now nicknamed “Farcrook”) Lawan! It turned out, courtesy of video recordings which some prominent Nigerians appear to have seen, that Lawan visited rich oil trader Femi Otedola on two separate occasions, collecting $250,000 each time. During one trip reportedly conducted before dawn, Farouk is said to have stuffed foreign currency into all available pockets in his large “Babariga” and ended up putting the excess into his long cap! The clerk of Lawan’s controversial ad hoc committee on fuel subsidies is also said to have collected an additional $120,000 from the same oil businessman. Not surprisingly, the House seemed less embarrassed by the shameful conduct of their leading member and angrier that the executive may have collaborated with Otedola in exposing their greedy colleague. Based on the tantrums thrown by House members at its special meeting, this was not really about corruption, but about losing one soldier in their self-declared “war” with the executive! As death and destruction raged in Kaduna, the president had flown to Brazil for the Rio+20 conference and had come under attack from the opposition for seeming insensitivity in leaving the nation as a major city in his country was consumed by terror and insecurity. The already angry House of Representatives issued an unprecedented (and unwise) summons to the president. It was clear something had to give upon the president’s return. And it did! I had written just a few weeks back in relation to the comments of now fired National Security Adviser, Andrew Owoye Azazi, at the South-South “BRACED” Summit: that Azazi’s outburst probably signified “evidence of exasperation by the NSA that his views about how to deal with BH has so far not been acted upon by his boss, President Jonathan.” I projected that it could “suggest Azazi’s imminent exit from government as the presidency chooses an alternative route, perhaps the ‘poverty and appeasement option’ propounded by some local and international lobbies.” That is exactly what has now happened! The appointment of Sambo Dasuki, a retired colonel and a Prince of the Sokoto Caliphate, as new National Security Adviser may be considered either appeasement or pragmatism, considering that threats to national security are currently from the Hausa/Fulani/Kanuri axis of Northern Nigeria. President Jonathan and his international advisers may have concluded that the only realistic solution may be to find a credible Hausa-Fulani military figure able to resolve the security logjam. It also accedes to a longstanding Northern demand for the NSA position, which they have come to view as a preserve. The appointment by President Jonathan may turn out to be either prescient or foolhardy depending on how events unfold, but certainly his action carries risks and has implications for the nation’s power structure. I will wait for the replacement of the Minister of Defence, Haliru Bello Muhammed, before making final conclusions. My final comments will be on the president’s Democracy Day broadcast. It is unfortunate that the only aspect of that speech that has received any attention was the re-naming (actually purported re-naming) of the University of Lagos after MKO Abiola. I thought the presidential seal of recognition on Abiola’s martyrdom and role in securing our democracy was a positive step by the president, but support the need for consultation and proper legal measures since we now live in a constitutional democracy. Nevertheless, I was sad to observe Nigerians, particularly of the South-West, rejecting and splitting hairs over honour done MKO, which we have incessantly demanded for. As a policy analyst, I have also been quite alarmed that no space was given to the president’s policy pronouncements, especially on agriculture, power, ports and customs reforms and critical infrastructure.

Dana Crash...Beyond the Tears

On December 10, 2010, I moderated a roundtable discussion on the aviation sector organised by Loyola Jesuit College Abuja parents based in Lagos in commemoration of the fifth anniversary of the Sosoliso air tragedy in Port Harcourt five years earlier. The programme held at the Lagos City Hall, and was attended by Dr Harold Demuren, Director-General of the National Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) and members of his team, representatives of Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), aviation lawyers, officials of the Accident Investigation Bureau, victims parents and relatives, insurance sector representatives and other industry stakeholders. That session acknowledged the relative improvements in aviation safety and infrastructure as at that date; the passage of the Civil Aviation Act 2006; and the reduction in the average age of aircrafts operating in Nigeria, all of which culminated in US Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) Category 1 certification. However several ongoing challenges were also identified-persistent deficit in infrastructure-fire safety equipment and water hydrants, runway and runway lightings, ambulances, terminal buildings etc; issues with customer service standards and consumer protection; victims compensation, rehabilitation and counselling; and strengthening capacity in accidents investigation. Most importantly, the roundtable participants called attention to “a major emerging problem”-“the economic dimension of airline operations”-problems with profitability and operational viability of the sector which we warned “if not addressed lead to operational and safety issues”. As I reflected on the Dana Air disaster and the death and destruction occasioned thereby, my mind went back to that roundtable, and I wondered if perhaps focusing on those recommendations could have contributed towards preventing the June 3, 2012 Dana Air tragedy. My perception is that between December10 2010 when that roundtable held, and the Dana crash, standards and safety appear to have depreciated somewhat in the sector, and that may have been attributable to political interference in technical sector decisions and the economic dimension highlighted. In that interval for instance, a Minister has directed or condoned the arbitrary and forceful expulsion of a service provider (MAEVIS) from the airports contrary to all official and legal restraints. It is easy to imagine such a minister over-riding technical advice from industry regulators, in favour of whatever she deemed expedient. It is also on public record that a state governor, Godswill Akpabio of Akwa-Ibom, had based on passenger feedback, warned Dana Air management about endangering lives with allegedly defective aircraft. It is difficult to believe that no such complaints were received by the Minister and aviation authorities! My personal experience is somewhat instructive. I have since the EAS air crash of May 2002 maintained a very strict discipline about which airlines I fly on. I had been on that doomed EAS aircraft less than two weeks before it crashed and it was patently evident to everyone on that plane that it wasn’t airworthy. I sat with Tunde Ajijedidun on that Lagos-Abuja flight and we spent the whole flight time pensive and prayerful as it huffed and puffed, lunged, plunged and rose dramatically all through the flight!!! Until recently my shortlist was Air Nigeria, Arik and Aero Contractors. But by some strange co-incidence I flew Dana on two Abuja return trips for the first time ever in last month and for whatever reasons, I vowed not to repeat that venture. I can’t put a finger on why since the service was good, but perhaps I concluded that despite the service, I wasn’t comfortable with the aircraft, which appeared old and laboured. Now we have lost 153 or so dear souls and visited grief and sorrow upon families due to what appears to have been a preventable crash. As I pondered over the fate of the families who have lost dear ones, I have kept wondering why we continue to agree to live this way? Why is the black man, the African, the Nigerian willing to endure pain and suffering just because of our predilection to greed, selfishness, and mediocrity? Why are we so short-sighted and self-destructive in our determination to never do the right things, but continuously seek personal privilege over collective development? Why do we believe that we can defy the laws of nature-that you can only reap what we sow and corruption can only produce backwardness and retrogression? When will we learn that evil can only produce evil? How do we console the victims and their families? That it was the will of God? That it was unavoidable? How do we explain this to Mrs Rebecca Aikhomu, and all the others who lost family, relatives, colleagues and friends? I commend the government and public reaction to this unfortunate tragedy, but beyond current emotions, will we learn anything from this occurrence? Will we actually change our behaviour? Will we start enforcing regulations based on the public interest rather than private interests? Will management and staff of public agencies, not just in the aviation sector start understanding that the whole of society including sometimes themselves and their relations will always bear the consequences of our negative actions? Will we start enforcing rules and standards without fear or favour and based on standards and global best practices? Our tears, outrage and condolences will not transform Nigeria. Only our actions will.

Buhari: Myth and Mystery

I have never been a fan of General Muhammadu Buhari. When he took power in December 1983 as military Head of State, I was already a third-year law student at Ife. He headed a brutal and unthinking dictatorship-one that jailed journalists, abolished civil liberties and declared it wasn’t interested in democracy-the only military government that never announced a democratic transition programme! His regime was headed for the only time in Nigeria’s history by two Northerners, indeed two Fulanis according to some reports about Idiagbon’s ancestry. He rushed to exonerate ex-President Shagari from wrongdoing while appearing determined to pin all blame on his deputy, Alex Ekwueme and the opposition parties! Curiously the pattern of trials and convictions by his military tribunals suggested that second republic corruption was led by the opposition parties-in particular the UPN and NPP, rather than the ruling NPN. He sought to humiliate Chief Awolowo, sending soldiers to ransack his residence. Yet his “War against Indiscipline” had its exceptions-his ADC helping to clear an Emir’s 53 suitcases through the airports during a currency exchange programme. He ran a government of no more than four or five people-his deputy Idiagbon; his notorious National Security Organisation Head, Ambassador Rafindadi; his Minister of Internal Affairs, Mohammed Magoro; and himself to the exclusion of his colleagues on the Supreme Military Council and everyone else. He was easily overthrown, having thoroughly isolated himself from every power centre. In a sense, his government was precursor to the murderous Abacha regime, seeking absolute power, committing judicial murder, promulgating retroactive laws, terrorising and proscribing civil society organisations and professional groups. Before becoming military dictator, Buhari had served serially as military governor and Minister for Petroleum under Murtala/Obasanjo, and GOC in Jos from where he and others orchestrated the 1983 toppling of democracy. The myth of outsider to the Nigerian ruling class is strange given his CV! How could someone who occupied those positions and ran our corrupt oil sector under the military be excluded from Nigeria’s problems? As Head of State, Buhari did not make any dent in Nigerian corruption! Indeed the counter-trade scam which happened under his watch was no different in scope and scale, from the petroleum subsidy and other corruption scandals that have since plagued Nigeria. And what about the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) which Buhari led under his mentee, Abacha? Anyone who was an adult during Abacha’s reign can testify that PTF was the biggest source of patronage and corruption in the Nigerian economy in its time! One is also entitled to wonder whether Buhari cared about human rights abuses under Abacha, such as the killing of Kudirat Abiola, shooting of Alex Ibru and Abraham Adesanya or the several concocted coup plots of that era? I may be willing to concede, in the absence of contrary information, that Buhari may not be personally corrupt, but corruption thrived below and around him due probably to a major personal deficiency-his inclination to abdicate the powers of offices he occupied to some one, usually a subordinate! Most people attribute the running of the “Buhari/Idiagbon” regime to Idiagbon; it is believed that subordinates (Salahijo/Tayo Akpata etc) managed the PTF; even his Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is managed by Sule Hamma and Buba Galadinma and they may have perpetrated activities in Buhari’s name which he was unaware of and which have destabilised that party. How will such a “leader” fight corruption? That trait encourages politicians to seek to be his deputy hoping they would be beneficiaries of the “Buhari Power Abdication Syndrome”. But there could, especially in a presidential system, be an alternative model-the Abacha/Diya model, in which a deputy ends up in prison rather than power!!! An Executive President could, for instance simply appoint Hamma as SGF and Galadinma as Chief of Staff, while marginalising any Vice President!!! Ask Diya about Aminu Saleh, Auwalu Yadudu and Major Mustapha; or ask Jonathan about his powers under Yar’adua!!! There could be a third model of course-the Goodluck model!!! Buhari’s other shortcoming, which feeds the abdication syndrome is his lack of interest and competence in policy and administration. This was aptly demonstrated on national television during the pre-election presidential debates as he displayed stunning lack of depth on virtually all aspects of policy! His other limitation has consistently been displayed since return to democracy in 1999-parochialism and a narrow world view! While aspiring to power in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious nation where political stability and national integration cannot yet be taken for granted, his public statements have included advocacy for implementation of Sharia all over Nigeria; advising Muslims not to vote for persons who won’t protect their faith; accusing an Oyo State governor in the aftermath of a Fulani herdsmen and indigenous farmers dispute that “your people are killing my people”, a claim that turned out to be unfounded and perhaps the reverse; incitement to violence and “lynching” before the 2011 general elections and petulance thereafter; and recent but not surprising threat of bloodshed and “dogs and baboons” over the 2015 elections which is three years away! It is a mystery that Buhari gets consideration in the context of national leadership. He clearly lacks the competences and temperament required for the office and his supporters might be well-advised to seek alternatives.