Wednesday, June 30, 2010

"Super Eagles" and Nigerian Character

Our national football team the “Super (?) Eagles (?)” now fully embodies all that is wrong with Nigeria-corruption, nepotism, state capture, poor leadership, absence of vision and planning and mediocrity. Just like our nation, except we change these retrogressive attributes, our football will not progress. Has anyone wondered why Ghana is on the ascendancy in African football-winning the 2009 under-20 world cup in Egypt; qualifying easily for the on-going 2010 World Cup (unlike Nigeria which needed prayers and a miracle to get through); and now moving into the quarter final while Nigeria, Cameroun, Algeria, Cote D’Ivoire and hosts South Africa went out in the group stage? Well perhaps football mirrors national character. Remember Ghana is the same African nation US President Barack visited and commended for its “democratic consolidation” and relative good governance.
Nigeria lost twice and drew one game going down as one of the three worst performers along with North Korea and Honduras! See the company our nation keeps!!! Why have we come so low? Because like our country, our football is erected on lies and corruption! One fraudulent foundation, which ostrich-like we pretend to ignore, is age cheating. We have players who claim to be in their 20s and early 30s but everyone knows they are close to or over 40 years old. Most players in our national teams at all age grades have shaved off five, seven or more years off their ages. The result is a national squad with average age of probably thirty two years or more. When one man is expelled due to an unprofessional red card ala Sani Kaita, the team collapses like a pack of cards. How can ten men averaging 32 years old play against eleven 25-28 year olds? We saw other teams remain competitive and even win in similar circumstances, but the difference is that these are young and/or fit footballers unlike ours-Yakubu Aiyegbeni and Danny Shittu for instance are fat, flabby and tending towards obesity! Is it a coincidence that the better-performing teams-Ghana, Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Holland and Portugal-are all young teams?
But then we do not have the moral right to deal with age cheating as our civil services, judiciary and even the private sector is riddled with the same malaise! Remember sports mirrors national character! The administration of football just like the nation is plagued by corruption, hijacked by persons with no interest in the game because the objective is personal profit rather than service. I’m told NFF now means “Nigerians Feeding on Football”! They take a 200 man delegation to the World Cup at national expense. There are allegations that some persons are taking a “bung cut” from Coach Lars Lagerback’s income, just the same way the Halliburton, Siemens and other corruption scandals are structured.
Just like our nation is denied the services of its best in politics, governance and even the private sector, our sports officials impose mediocrity on the national team. Suddenly just before the games began we saw the NFF’s media propagandists manipulating public opinion-Yakubu Aiyegbeni is “enjoying the form of his life”; Victor Anichebe is injured; Obafemi Martins is indisciplined; Sani Kaita is in fact the best player in the team!!! I knew then that Peterside Idah and the NFF’s propagandists were preparing our minds for decisions that had already been taken regarding team selection. It was precisely those nepotistic (or purchased) decisions that proved to be the undoing of the Eagles! See the contribution of Aiyegbeni and Kaita to the team! We went to the tournament with at least five players who should not have been there-Aiyegbeni; John Utaka; Danny Shittu (who plays with all energy and no brains which explains his not playing a single match whether as starting player or substitute throughout the season for Bolton); Joseph Yobo and Kanu Nwankwo. Like our recycled leaders who think the nation belongs to them Kanu, Utaka, Yobo and Aiyegbeni will not go away until they either die on the field or are disgraced!
Lars Lagerback (or perhaps the insiders Sani Lulu, Daniel Amokachi, Taiwo Ogunjobi, Bolaji Ojo-Oba, Austin Eguavoen, Peterside Idah etc who decide for him) left Martins and Osaze Odemwingie on the bench and persisted on playing Aiyegbeni who contributed nothing throughout the competition. Even though Anichebe impressed during the friendlies, they ditched him claiming he was injured which was denied by his team doctor; they left out Olufemi Olubayo and Dele Adeleye who play regularly in good clubs; Utaka was selected but failed to play a single game; Mediocrity Writ Large!!! Ironically as the competition was slipping out of his hands in the game against South Korea, Lagerback replaced Kanu, Yobo and Aiyegbeni, but it was too late. A coach who doesn’t make independent decisions and may have agreed to pay “kickbacks” on his salary is off on the wrong foot!
Unfortunately the sports media (admittedly with some exceptions) are part of the problem. They disseminate NFF propaganda; act more or less like players’ agents; refuse to investigate obvious cases of age cheating and generally are complicit in the conspiracy of silence, falsehood and corruption destroying our football. And the legion of sports entrepreneurs, just like our politicians, can’t be bothered about the national interest as long as their pecuniary needs are satisfied! Like football; like the nation.

State of the Nation

In May, global economic uncertainty returned. The Economist wrote about the “return of fear” and the words “double-dip recession” began to feature on economic analysts’ lexicon. There were multiple worries-will there be war between the two Koreas? Will Spain, Portugal and other European nations follow the Greek precedent? Will the crisis snowball into a wider European financial crisis? What will become of the Euro? There were also wider worries over global economic recovery. Will the Chinese asset price bubble burst or will the authorities succeed in carefully controlling or deflating property values? How will Europe cope with low growth and high sovereign debt levels? As stimulus spending wears out in America, is private demand strong enough to take its place? How will governments manage the challenge of fiscal deficits, austerity, unemployment and financial sector reform?
The MSCI index of global stocks fell over 15 percent between mid-April and end of May. After breaching the $80 per barrel threshold and actually testing $85, oil prices have fallen to around $70. At some point in April, the price actually fell to $66.84 reminding Nigerian budget planners and legislators that oil is a commodity whose price rises and falls! Government has wisely (as this columnist and my firm, Resources and Trust Company has advocated) decided to review downwards the imprudent assumptions contained in the 2010 budget. The budget had been predicated on aggressive price ($67 per barrel) and production (2.5million barrels per day) targets. The downward review will restore fiscal responsibility and slow the rate of foreign exchange reserves depletion. It may also moderate inflation even though other actions (such as gas, electricity and petrol price hikes) may work in the opposite direction.
In the political environment, President Jonathan may be succeeding in persuading several key constituencies to support his possible run in 2011. While we don’t expect agitation over adherence to the ruling PDP’s zoning formula (which its proponents argue mandates a candidate from Northern Nigeria) to disappear, there is an increasing probability of a consensus around the pragmatic recognition of the reality of Jonathan’s incumbency. His choice of Namadi Sambo (a professional architect and erstwhile Kaduna State Governor who is not a core politician) as Vice-President may be a pointer to the fact that Jonathan may indeed run as he has selected someone who is unlikely to threaten his position in that event. The President’s easy and consensual style may also help defuse opposition to his candidacy, even though the risk is that it may also be perceived as a sign of weakness. The choice of Professor Attahiru Jega as INEC Chair has also won the regime credibility domestically and internationally.
Policy preferences appear to be concretizing around Niger-Delta development, fair elections (though not radical electoral reform), power and energy sector reform, anti-corruption and security. The government is sensibly fast-tracking implementation of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 and has raised gas and electricity tariffs to attract private investment. There is a possibility of petroleum subsidy removal as well. The government is expected to amend the draft Petroleum Industry Bill to take into account the concerns of the international oil majors and privatisation may be back on the policy agenda. It is likely that a higher minimum wage may be allowed especially for public sector workers. Inflation has averaged over 12.2 percent in the last six months confirming our firm’s view that inflation in 2010 may hover between 12 and 15 percent.
While capital market fundamentals are reasonably attractive, sustained price rises may not happen as traumatised investors take out profits intermittently and a new regulatory environment rattles operators and investors. The CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of May 10 and 11, 2010 in its communiqué claimed that “domestic financial markets have recovered remarkably faster than expected…” The committee did not offer any evidence in support of this assertion. Rather the available data (from MPC itself!) confirms the continuation of adverse credit and monetary aggregates indicative of a credit crunch. Broad money is below target by over 20 percent; net aggregate domestic credit is below target by 31percent; and net credit to the private sector is below target by over 38 percent. The only sector receiving credit is government which grew by an annualised 113.6 percent indicative (as MPC admitted) of a crowding out of the private sector by government borrowing. The definitive confirmation that financial market conditions remain sub-normal is the extension of CBN guarantees of inter-bank transactions, foreign credit lines and pension fund placements with banks till June 2011!
Overall domestic political risk has continued to abate as President Goodluck Jonathan consolidates, but significant risks remain around the Jos crisis and the 2011 nominations and elections. The policy posture of government is however more rational and the prospect of advancement of macroeconomic reforms which were basically suspended for three years is better. The government’s decision to fast-track EPSRA implementation is most welcome. The budget review will re-instate more rational fiscal assumptions and fiscal stability. It would be helpful also if the hopes for a sovereign wealth fund are accomplished. However financial sector stabilisation and an exit plan from the eight banks under CBN control remain key imperatives.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Jonathan and the Azikwe Syndrome

At independence, Dr Nnamdi Azikwe, Nigeria’s foremost pre-independence nationalist and politician had the opportunity of becoming Nigeria’s first Prime Minister. At the conclusion of the 1959 federal elections, none of the major parties had enough seats in parliament to solely form government, like in the recently concluded British elections. Sir Ahmadu Bello’s Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) had the largest parliamentary contingent by virtue of the defective structure of the Nigerian federation bequeathed by the British which created a Northern region larger than the two other regions in the federation. Azikwe’s NCNC (National Council of Nigerian Citizens) and Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s Action Group (AG) were strongest in Eastern and Western Nigeria respectively. Mallam Aminu Kano’s Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) controlled the Kano/Kaduna axis of Northern Nigeria and Joseph Tarka’s United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC) was influential in the non-Hausa/Fulani, largely Christian middle-belt of Nigeria.
Chief Awolowo offered an alliance as junior partner to the NCNC conceding the prime ministerial position to “Zik” (as Azikwe was popularly known) while “Awo” wanted the finance ministry. It would thus have been possible for Zik to weld together a ruling coalition involving NCNC/NEPU (NEPU was already an NCNC alliance partner) and AG/UMBC (ditto AG and UMBC). But for confounding reasons, Zik chose junior partnership in an alternative alliance offered by the NPC and became ceremonial Governor-General and later President. It would be one of the rare occasions in political history where a politician at the peak of an otherwise brilliant political career, scorns an opportunity for real political power in favour of a completely nominal and sinecure role in his nation’s affair! This must not be confused with cases in which an undisputed leader such as Ahmadu Bello or Sonia Ghandi and Ichiro Ozawa in contemporary India and Japan respectively allowed surrogates occupy political office, while they retained effective political power.
Zik would later regret his strange choice, as he struggled for influence over military command with Bello’s deputy who became Prime Minister-Abubakar Tafawa Balewa; as his NCNC turned to the AG for political coalition-United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) in 1964; and as he would later run for Presidency in vain in 1979 and 1983. Several explanations have been offered for Zik’s self-defeating choice in 1960-anger and spite at Awolowo who had prevented him from becoming Premier of Western Nigeria through the “carpet crossing” incidence; the non-inclination of NCNC leaders to go into alliance with Awo who they regarded as an “enemy”; the influence of the British who steered Zik in their preferred direction; fear of political and regional instability if the “North” was denied power etc. Whatever reason, the outcome was that Azikwe was cajoled into becoming titular head rather than substantive head of government which was well within his grasp.
It is clear that Zik made a sub-optimal choice, both in terms of personal political strategy and national interest. An NCNC/NEPU/AG/UMBC (plus Bornu Youth Movement of Ibrahim Imam) alliance would have been comprehensively nationalistic and more progressive and development-oriented than the NPC government we inherited at independence. The evolution of Nigerian political economy may have diverged from the conservative (or even retrogressive) path we have followed if this alternative platform had been forged with Zik, Awo, Aminu Kano, J. S Tarka and Imam at its head. In any event, if Zik had sacrificed power for national unity and cohesion, the Gods evidently did not accept his offering as Tiv riots, “wetie”, deadly coups and counter-coups, pogroms and later a genocidal civil war in which Zik’s own Igbo ethnic group were the main victims ensued over the next decade! Some argue that General Olusegun Obasanjo as military head of state was similarly intimidated into governing almost as nominal head of the military junta while real power was exercised beneath him. Indeed some accounts suggest that in order to convince strategic military and political constituencies of his loyalty, Obasanjo distanced himself from fellow Yoruba officers and political leaders. Fortunately for Obasanjo, unlike Zik, he had a second opportunity at power between 1999 and 2007 when he ruled substantially (at least for a while) as he thought fit.
Dr Goodluck Jonathan is called upon to make a decision similar or divergent from Azikwe’s in the run up to the 2011 elections. Essentially if Jonathan fails to run, it would be because he has been scared out of the race-choosing to lay his hand on the plough and then to take it off again! The argument that the PDP had zoned the office to the North for the next eight years is off course non-sequitur. If Obasanjo had died in 2002 and Abubakar Atiku had become President by virtue of the constitution, would Atiku have handed power back to Olu Falae, Bola Ige or Opeyemi Agbaje in 2003 in the name of zoning? In my view, even though the PDP zoning arrangement subsists (as Ade Ogunsanya argued recently it was scrupulously honoured such that a Northerner succeeded Obasanjo in 2007), the concept and sequence must necessarily be amended due to an act of God (the death of Umaru Yar’adua) and the provisions of our national constitution (which elevated Jonathan into the Presidency). Zoning was made for the country and not the country for zoning!
What would Jonathan do? Would he choose the path of power for national development or the sinecure course that Azikwe followed?