Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Naivety and Statecraft

I have previously written about President Goodluck Jonathan’s simplicity and naïveté. In Nigeria’s dysfunctional politics and system, being relatively inexperienced and simple-minded can be an advantage in a political career especially in two particular contexts-when you wish to be deputy, Deputy Governor or Vice President, and when you have a powerful Godfather! There is no doubt that Governors pick their deputies for their lack of political clout, naiveté and submissiveness…and after Obasanjo’s experience with Atiku Abubakar, Presidents have also followed suit! Yar’adua’s minders fought very hard to prevent Peter Odili or Donald Duke from becoming Vice President, preferring Jonathan who they must have seen as weaker and likely to be more pliable! These characteristics may be tolerable in deputies, but when a CEO, either in politics or business retains those attributes, the consequences may be tragic, even fatal!!! Godfathers of course also prefer obedient godsons! Most Nigerians when they voted overwhelmingly for him in 2011 were aware of that Goodluck Jonathan weakness, but they hoped that once he won a substantive presidential election on his own merit, he would rise to the occasion and express the powers of his office. So far he hasn’t. Instead of growing in the office of President, President Jonathan apparently seeks to elevate naiveté into strategy, with him and his inner circle consoling themselves that he knows what he is doing and is actually executing some grand strategic maneuver! Meanwhile as he panders to adversarial constituencies, alienates himself from otherwise friendly ones, puts his political and economic legacies into perpetual jeopardy, and endangers the lives of himself and his associates, they delude themselves that they are “on top of the situation”! I read a report in the wake of the tragic helicopter crash that killed former NSA Azazi and Kaduna State Governor Yakowa that Azazi was assuring one Ross Alabo-George that Jonathan was smarter than people credited him for, as he walked to his death!!! Contrary to that illusion, four instances convince me that the president often does not act in his own self-interest! That cannot be strategy!!! Take the recent attempted cancellation of the Manitoba transmission concession. Since the exit of Professor Barth Nnaji from the power ministry, it has become very clear that it is possible, even easy for Jonathan’s enemies who seek to destroy his possible sole legacy, to run rings around him!!! Even regarding Nnaji’s resignation, administration insiders convinced themselves it was a strategy to preserve the gains of the PHCN privatization. Subsequently the President was almost swindled and deceived into unraveling the whole exercise by cancelling concession of the transmission system to Canada’s Manitoba Hydro until powerful insiders intervened to save him from himself! As it pushed by some demonic powers (in human flesh), the President then fired the DG of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) while the privatisations were yet to be concluded! Then take Boko Haram! Today I doubt that the Jonathan government can ever solve this problem, even if you gave them ten years so to do! It has allowed the terrorist too much latitude such that the matter has gone from an episodic to an epidemic state. In the early stages, when the terrorist network could have been crushed and obliterated, it appeared that the president was convinced not to take firm actions against it, probably by the sponsors of Boko Haram, or their agents! He couldn’t even make firm statements instead mouthing inanities like “terrorism is a global phenomenon”, “it is now our turn to live with it” “Boko Haram is in my government” etc. It got to the point where the Nigerian and US governments united to argue against designating Boko Haram a Foreign Terrorist Organisation for political reasons. Today BH is emboldened and terror in Nigeria has been de-regulated! Few doubt given the impunity with which it operates, that BH enjoys some covert (or even overt) support within official, political, military and security circles. Today BH’s menace can only be tamed with great and decisive effort! There is no evidence that this President will offer such leadership. And then consider Jonathan’s post-election regional strategy! A President who was elected with overwhelming support from four geo-political zones (South-South; South-East; South-West; and Middle-Belt) with additional support in the North-West and North-East) has shrunk his support base, seemingly deliberately into South-South and South-East! He now completely lacks support in the Northern zones and even the Middle-Belt and Northern Christians who have paid a very high price for voting for him are weary! As they endure the consequences of voting Jonathan, he rewards those who did everything possible to prevent him for becoming president! Again, this cannot be strategy of any sensible sort, but extreme naivety!!! His emerging attitude to the South-West is inexplicable and will certainly exact a significant pay-back, except something changes very soon. How for instance can a President intending to win an election in 2015 decide to alienate both Asiwaju Tinubu and ex-President Obasanjo, both of whom supported his election in 2011? The fourth illustration I was going to use-the dismissal of General Andrew Owoye Azazi as National Security Adviser now speaks for itself!!! When I put my notes for this article down in Providence, Rhode Island, USA on November 10, the poor gentlemen was alive!

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Progress on Power Privatisation-Repeat

*Note* This article was first published on October 24, 2012 and is repeated due to current unfortunate developments as anti-reform elements seek to undermine power sector privatisation by cancelling the Manitoba Transmission Concession. It would be a monumental tragedy if President Jonathan allows the unravelling of electricity sector transformation. (*Happily this appears to have been overtaken by events as the President has decided to affirm the Manitoba contract) President Jonathan moves closer by the week to probably his greatest legacy as Nigeria’s elected leader – completing the privatisation of the power sector. Fate perhaps has destined that it was Jonathan’s lot to transform power sector dynamics in Nigeria, as the template for what he is now executing had really been put in place in 2000/2001 at the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) when the Power Policy was written. It was the same period that a Telecommunications Policy was also designed at the Bureau, except that the telecommunications one became law two years later in 2003 in form of the National Communications Commission Act. Indeed, even before the legislation was passed, the policy had been meticulously implemented starting with the 2001 digital mobile licence auctions which kicked off the transformation of the telecommunications sector in Nigeria. The power sector was, however, a totally different kettle of fish. First of all, the policy was half-heartedly implemented even by those who should have been its advocates and custodians. Indeed, the executive and legislature appeared to have entered into a conspiracy against the Nigerian people as they kept the draft bill to provide legal basis for policy implementation in the shelves of the National Assembly from 2001 till 2005 when the Electric Power Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) was eventually, and apparently reluctantly, passed. When EPSRA became law, I rejoiced hoping that perhaps the sector bureaucracy and the relevant political elite were now ready to relax their grip on the sector, but as usual, we underestimated the Nigerian capacity for self-destruction. Instead of proceeding with swift implementation of the new framework encapsulated in the new law, the then administration made a 180-degree about-turn with a new National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) which has turned out to be one of the most notable policy scandals in the Nigerian nation. NIPP was philosophically the direct opposite of the framework envisaged in EPSRA, which sought a private sector-controlled power sector, with generation and distribution sold to private investors, while transmission, which was a natural monopoly, concessioned to private managers. The law also provided for an independent regulator, the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), and unbundling of PHCN into multiple distribution and generation entities. NIPP, on the other hand, was sold (probably by enemies of the impending reform and bureaucrats and politicians who wished to award contracts!) to the government as an emergency intervention by government, which was required to invest in emergency power. Unfortunately, anyway, by the time EPSRA was enacted, the government of the day had embarked on a major national distraction called “third term”, and probably the NIPP could play some role in oiling the wheels of the third term project! It was only after the failure of the third term project that government sought a rushed completion of the privatisation and concessioning of the PHCN entities, a process that could not be concluded until late President Umaru Yar’Adua took office and (illegally) suspended EPSRA implementation. Yar’Adua and his chief adviser on energy, Rilwanu Lukman, were completely opposed to the notion of privatisation of the power sector, most probably in defence of perceived, but in my view misguided, regional interests. Even though EPSRA, a law enacted by the National Assembly and assented to by ex-President Obasanjo, remained the law of the land, Yar’Adua and Lukman disavowed it, and Lukman came up with a bogus and unrealistic alternative based on continued government control which required the public sector to invest $85 billion into the power sector. No lessons were learnt from the failures of the NIPP scheme, even as it appeared that the Yar’Adua regime actually partly orchestrated its failure by first stalling it and then deliberately misinforming the public about the amount spent. Given this tortuous background of power sector reforms since the 1999 return to civilian rule, President Jonathan deserves commendation for seeing through the subterfuges and re-instating the process of sector reform based on the framework envisaged in EPSRA. That was what the president’s Power Sector Roadmap purposed to do and, as the countdown to the end of the process looms, appears set to accomplish. Credit must also go to the former power minister, Bartholomew Nnaji, who fought tooth and nail to escape all the traps laid out by highly-placed anti-reform elements, though he was eventually consumed. We eagerly await the operational takeover of the transmission company to Manitoba of Canada who won its management contract; conclusion and handover of the privatised power generating entities; and conclusion of the process in relation to the distribution companies as well. But no one should take those who oppose power sector privatisation for granted. For them, it is not over until it is over, and they will continue to mount rearguard actions against its successful conclusion to the very end. President Jonathan and the folks at BPE and the National Council on Privatisation (NCP) must be vigilant and must sustain the admirable political will demonstrated so far in the sector.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

The "Okada" Society (2)

An opponent of the Lagos State government’s restriction on “Okada” operations, in trying to convince me to reverse my support for the measure, mentioned that several countries allow commercial motorcycles to operate – Benin Republic, Rwanda, Uganda and Cameroun. He also speculated that some unspecified nations in Latin America and South-East Asia also use motorcycles for public transportation. These countries, you will observe, are exclusively from the most backward and poorest regions of the world. My response should be predictable to any regular reader of this column – those are not the type of nations Lagos State should be benchmarking! The vision the government in Lagos articulated at some of the Lagos Economic Summits I’ve attended (Ehingbeti) is to build Lagos into Africa’s model megacity comparable with the best in the world! One of my biggest concerns about the socio-economic implications of “the Okada society” for our people is the impact on distribution of skills and competences. Ask yourself the question – if we didn’t have “Okadas”, what jobs would the typical indigenous Nigerian commercial motorcyclist be doing? These would be the profile of persons who would be auto mechanics, plumbers, electrical technicians, vulcanisers, welders, bricklayers and masons, carpenters, etc. Some could be transport and haulage assistants, chauffeurs, barbers, etc. Already, these categories of tradesmen and artisans are increasingly hard to find in Nigeria and we are already importing a large number from neighbouring countries. It is not difficult to find out why. All of these activities require training and apprenticeship, sometimes for more than two or three years. All the training riding an “Okada” requires may be accomplished in three days. The consequence is that Nigeria is steadily destroying its base of middle-level skilled technical manpower. We are building up a large population of persons who do not have any skills and competences beyond riding a motorcycle and who will sooner than later have families and societal obligations as they advance in age – in short, we are building up a large army of unskilled, frustrated and disconnected population groups. God help us when that situation matures into the predictable social explosion that can be expected! I gathered that the Lagos State government made three offers of alternative employment to the leadership of the “Okada” associations, all of which they rejected – an invitation to form cooperatives and operate BRT buses which would allow them to participate in a sustainable element of the government’s transport model; involvement in the various farming schemes which the state had developed; and sending the “Okada” riders to the 17 skill acquisition centres which the state government had set up to acquire skills in trades and vocations, with the opportunity of accessing microfinance upon the conclusion of their training. It is instructive that the motorcyclists were not interested in any of these offers! The continued influx of uneducated and unskilled persons with no roots in the community, many of them undocumented foreigners into the country in an unchecked wave of net migration, cannot be a sensible thing to encourage. Migration may be desirable and certainly people should be able to decide to relocate to another society whenever they feel economic or other opportunities lie elsewhere, but doesn’t that have to be moderated by clearly thought-out policy and laws? Is there any policy or research that supporters of “Okadas” can point to that has evaluated the Obama: Hope, change, developing world implications of the current “Okada” migration? Has anyone prepared for the implications on social services, housing and slums, neighborhoods, health and education? In short, are we content to walk blindly into the next generation of social disasters that Africa so regularly creates because no one is prepared to think towards the future? There is even a health and lifestyle dimension to the matter – our people no longer walk. Anywhere in the world, except you take a personal car or taxis, commuters will expect to be dropped at a bus-stop and then to walk, say, for about 10-15 minutes on average to their home. In the mornings as well, workers and businesspersons will typically walk some minutes to their closest train or bus stations. I personally have found that anytime I travel outside Nigeria, I come back healthier – I eat less and I walk more! However, in Nigeria, with the “Okada” phenomenon, a large percentage of people do not walk at all. They take an “Okada” to the bus-stop, or indeed straight to their destinations, and vice versa. No matter how short the distance is, people simply hop on a motorcycle. In effect, we are in the early stages of building an unhealthy generation that never walks! Medical and health practitioners will understand that, given the level of stress and tension in our society, perhaps we are building up a health time-bomb as well! As I wrote last week, commercial motorcycles are a social concern for reasons of health and safety, security, transportation economics, urban and city planning and effects on population and demography. They were the highest single source of road accidents and security breaches in the state with lost lives and limbs running into thousands. They are a sign of under-development and they perpetuate it, denying people and the community of skills and competences required in a modern society.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

The "Okada" Society

I am aware that several state governments (virtually the entire South-South and South-East in addition to Plateau) as well as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja have placed total bans on operation of commercial motor-cycles, otherwise known as “Okada” in their jurisdictions. These decisions were implemented without as much as a whimper from indigenes and residents of those states, with the exception of Plateau where it was politicized due to the ongoing conflict between the indigenes and the settler community, which were preponderantly the “Okada” operators. Apparently our people respond quietly and compliantly to militaristic bans! In Lagos, I am aware the State Government agonized for years on the menace (yes, menace!) of hundreds of thousands of commercial motorcycles riding in an uncontrolled and uncontrollable manner all over the state. They were a societal concern for several reasons-health and safety, security, transportation economics, urban and city planning and even the effects on population and demography. They were the highest single source of road accidents in the state, with daily fatalities, lost limbs and orthopedic incidents all across the state. One single day last year or so, I witnessed three such accidents-one right inside my estate and one fellow lay dead; minutes later blood and tears on the Lekki-Epe Expressway approaching Victoria-Island, and later in the afternoon in Lagos Island, a third incident in which people had suffered grievous injury! One Saturday morning while jogging, a lone “Okada” rider, probably intoxicated and underage, and clearly untutored on the mechanics of the machine, fell down unconscious practically at my feet. It took us a few minutes to revive him. I wondered what would have happened if he had a passenger! They were also a security issue. The Police and State Government have both confirmed that the preponderance of armed robberies are carried out by commercial motorcyclists, who enjoy key strategic advantages over their victims and law enforcement-mobility; flexibility in traffic; possibility of escape through alley ways and un-motor able areas. Those bothered about potential terrorism also had cause for concern! In the North-East, commercial motorcycles are the main facilitators of terrorist activities, for similar reasons that armed robbers have also found them convenient! Among Okada riders are a large number of foreigners-Nigeriens, Burkinabe, Camerounians and Malians, just about the same nations the “Boko Haram” group has been associated with! Beyond these negative side effects, the fundamental issue of course is that motorcycles were not designed for public mass transportation! The logic of mass transit is clearly that the more passengers a “vehicle” can carry, the more economically sensible and sustainable the mode of mass transit. That’s why buses, aeroplanes, ships and trains have developed as the primary means of public transport. Cars, which are used as taxis generally carry the least number of people, and are hence usually more expensive. In Nigeria, we managed somehow to zero in on the most inefficient, most dangerous, least sustainable option-motorcycles as our dominant means of public transport! And some of our educated and articulate citizens insist this gross anomaly must continue!!! And these are people who kept quiet when the FCT and other states imposed a complete ban on the operations of Okadas!!! As I mentioned earlier, Lagos State unlike these others spent years thinking through a more rational solution-they introduced a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system with bus routes to Mile 12, CMS and other (Lagbus) buses all over the state. I am aware the BRT routes are being extended to Ikorodu and Mile 2; they are building a light rail system as well as a ten-lane expressway along the Mile 2 corridor; they have built so many roads and highways all over the state; and then they settled only on a partial restriction of the Okada system on 475 out of the 9,100 roads in the state, and introduced sensible rules for their operations wherever they were not restricted. It’s a complete mystery that it is in Lagos where the government invested in a negotiated and sensible compromise, rather than a total ban that protests have been loudest!!! Is Lagos in some people’s conception some sort of jungle, an urban “no man’s land” where there can and should be no laws, and where people can do whatever they wish? And I notice that every time we attempt to examine the reasoning (actual lack of it!) behind the pro-Okada argument, the resort is to blackmail-the elite do not want “Okadas” because they have cars or similar posturing! The point is when Lagos State built BRT routes, were they for the elites? When they provided BRT and Lagbus buses, were these for the elites? The people who are killed or maimed daily due to accidents involving “Okadas”, are they elites? The victims of robberies carried out on “Okadas”, aren’t they preponderantly our poorer compatriots? Is it elites that will use the light trains being constructed? Are elites the users of the numerous passenger overhead walk bridges constructed all over the state? That accusation is of course pure blackmail and underserving of response! I support the Lagos State Government’s restriction on the operation of commercial motorcycles in Lagos State. A good government cannot allow their continued operation on expressways, bridges and major highways. Indeed a proactive government will continue to work towards their eventual replacement by more modern, efficient, safer, more sustainable and indeed cheaper means of public transportation.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The US Elections

Four years ago, this columnist was probably one of the most enthusiastic pro-Obama platforms you could find. From the day I read The Audacity of Hope, and as the implications of a historic Barack Obama presidency dawned, my support for Obama became unqualified and resolute! Ironically, I had started off supporting Hillary Clinton rather than Obama when the Democratic primaries started, until I read Obama’s books and switched my support based not just on racial affinity, but for the inspiring and bold ideas enunciated in those books. By and large, I’ve been disappointed by Obama (and Clinton!). I do not know what he stands for! Obama has attempted to run a presidency that takes no risks. I recall that even during the period leading to the passage of his signature legislation – the healthcare reform – Obama passed the “transaction risks” to the House Democratic Caucus as he tried to minimise any negative impact on him if the legislation failed. It was the same attitude (or is it a strategy?) during the mid-term elections as he tried to distance himself and his presidency from the fortunes of his party’s congressional candidates, resulting in the famous “shellacking” which his party received resulting in the loss of the House of Representatives to the Republicans. It is in the area of foreign policy that Obama’s strategy has caused the most harm, in my view, resulting in a more chaotic global political and security environment. America has been right or wrong many times in history, but never has the world been unclear about what the US stood for! Under Obama, one cannot quite say the same. Obama has taken the strategy of passing the risks of global policymaking to others whenever the outcome was not predictable, resulting in a situation in which American leadership has been missing at critical moments. There are many illustrations of this, especially as the so-called Arab Spring developed. The US has not sufficiently stood by its values in Egypt (until after the recent Libyan debacle exposed the folly of that strategy) seemingly willing to tolerate marginalisation of women and religious minorities. Across the Middle East and North Africa, the US ignored the obvious presence of Al Qaeda and other terrorist-inclined forces seeking to gain ascendancy in the newly “liberated” countries again until the explosion in Libya consumed an American ambassador and three US embassy officials. Iran is four years closer to a nuclear bomb as Obama appeared to send mixed signals to Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs about America’s resoluteness to prevent an Iranian bomb. When the citizens of Iran protested on the streets after a fraudulent election, Obama hedged his bets, and the Iranian regime crushed its protesters! Pakistan continues to play tricks with the US, collecting billions of dollars in US aid and yet acting like the US were an enemy! The Egyptians do the same, and the newly elected Muslim Brotherhood president, Mohammed Morsi, has visited China, Iran and Saudi Arabia, while Egyptians have heckled and booed Hillary Clinton when she visited Cairo! Even in Nigeria, the US seemed to hedge its bets on Boko Haram! I also am quite uncomfortable with Obama’s social policies. I often wonder whether Obama, Clinton and other US liberals believe it is possible to build a successful society solely on the basis of homosexuality, abortion, welfare and taxing the rich! Surely, society must be built on more substantive values! What are those substantive values which these liberals believe America must be built upon? It is impossible to tell. Now the US Democrats have indeed taken the unprecedented step of taking out any reference to God from their party’s platform, a final confirmation perhaps that their vision of society, despite occasional pretensions, is one in which faith plays no part! Already, it is possible to detect that the next liberal agenda in the US (once gay marriage is out of the way!) is likely to be legalising marijuana! On their part, the Republicans have not fared much better! They have often acted as though they preferred that Obama fail, rather than do anything to assist in prompting recovery of the US economy, at some point looking like a nasty party that just said “No!” Often, their positions were just plain unreasonable and there are elements within the party who really seemed like racists who would go to any lengths to make sure a black man failed as president. However, the Republicans are different from Obama in one important respect – we always know where they stand! And I suspect that some of their values are a more sustainable basis of organising society – enterprise, a strong economy, an America that leads in the world, an opportunity society and strong relationships with allies. As the Americans go to vote next Tuesday, the choice before them is quite clear. Obama seems to want to move the US towards a more European welfare society with higher taxes, lower faith and more social safety nets. The Republicans are strongly resisting that journey and want to promote enterprise, individual responsibility, lower taxes and a traditional view of US society. Four years ago, I strongly endorsed Barack Obama. This time, I abstain!

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Progress on Power Privatisation

President Jonathan moves closer by the week to probably his greatest legacy as Nigeria’s elected leader-completing the privatization of the power sector! Fate perhaps has destined that it was Jonathan’s lot to transform power sector dynamics in Nigeria, as the template for what he is now executing had really been put in place in 2000/2001 at the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) when the Power Policy was written. It was the same period that a Telecommunications Policy was also designed at the Bureau, except that the telecommunications one became law two years later in 2003 in form of the National Communications Commission Act. Indeed even before the legislation was passed, the policy had been meticulously implemented starting with the 2001 digital mobile license auctions which kicked off the transformation of the telecommunications sector in Nigeria. The power sector was however a totally different kettle of fish! First of all, the policy was half-heartedly implemented even by those who should have been its advocates and custodians. Indeed the executive and legislature appeared to have entered into a conspiracy against the Nigerian people as they kept the draft bill to provide legal basis for policy implementation in the shelves of the National Assembly from 2001 till 2005 when the Electric Power Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) was eventually, and apparently reluctantly, passed. When EPSRA became law, I rejoiced hoping that perhaps the sector bureaucracy and the relevant political elite were now ready to relax their grip on the sector, but as usual we underestimated the Nigerian capacity for self-destruction. Instead of proceeding with swift implementation of the new framework encapsulated in the new law, the then administration made a 180-degree about-turn with a new National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) which has turned out to be one of the most notable policy scandals in the Nigerian nation. NIPP was philosophically the direct opposite of the framework envisaged in EPSRA which sought a private sector controlled power sector, with generation and distribution sold to private investors, while transmission which was a natural monopoly concessioned to private managers. The law also provided for an independent regulator, the National Electricity Regulatory Commission and unbundling of PHCN into multiple distribution and generation entities. NIPP on the other hand was sold (probably by enemies of the impending reform and bureaucrats and politicians who wished to award contracts!) to the government as a required emergency intervention by government which was required to invest in emergency power. Unfortunately anyway, by the time EPSRA was enacted, the government of the day had embarked on a major national distraction called “third term” and probably the NIPP could play some role in oiling the wheels of the third term project! It was only after the failure of the third term project that government sought a rushed completion of the privatization and concessioning of the PHCN entities, a process that could not be concluded until late President Umaru Yar’ adua took office and (illegally) suspended EPSRA implementation! Yar’adua and his Chief Adviser on Energy, Rilwanu Lukman were completely opposed to the notion of privatization of the power sector, most probably in defense of perceived, but in my view misguided regional interests! Even though EPSRA a law enacted by the National Assembly and assented to by ex-President Obasanjo, remained the law of the land, Yar’adua and Lukman disavowed it, and Lukman came up with a bogus and unrealistic alternative based on continued government control which required the public sector to invest $85billion into the power sector. No lessons were learnt from the failures of the NIPP scheme, even as it appeared that the Yar’adua regime actually partly orchestrated its failure by first stalling it and then deliberately misinforming the public about the amount spent. Given this tortuous background of power sector reforms since the 1999 return to civilian rule, President Jonathan deserves commendation for seeing through the subterfuges and re-instating the process of sector reform based on the framework envisaged in EPSRA. That was what the President’s Power Sector Roadmap purposed to do, and as the countdown to the end of the process looms, appears set to accomplish. Credit must also go to the former Power Minister, Bartholomew Nnaji who fought tooth and nail to escape all the traps laid out by highly-placed anti-reform elements, though he was eventually consumed. We eagerly await the operational take-over of the transmission company to Manitoba of Canada who won its management contract; conclusion and handover of the privatized power generating entities; and conclusion of the process in relation to the distribution companies as well. But no one should take those who oppose power sector privatization for granted. For them it is not over until it is over and they will continue to mount rearguard actions against its successful conclusion to the very end. President Jonathan and the folks at BPE and the National Council on Privatisation (NCP) must be vigilant and must sustain the admirable political will demonstrated sor far in the sector.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

The Imperative of State Police

Evidence of the near complete breakdown of law and order accumulates all over Nigeria-over forty students are killed, mostly by slitting their throats, probably by fundamentalist religious groups in Mubi, Adamawa State; four undergraduates are lynched by a community mob in Aluu, near Port Harcourt; in Kaduna more than twenty citizens are murdered early in the morning allegedly by armed bandits for having the effrontery to challenge their activities; in Jos killings of indigenous villagers by so-called Fulani herdsmen resumed with twenty killed last week-all these in the last two weeks only! The notion that a single national police force will successfully police all 910,770 square kilometres of this nation, more than four times the size of the United Kingdom, covering the activities of our 165 million people, double the population of Germany and Egypt is doomed to failure! It is the same way the concept of PHCN or NITEL failed simply because it is an inefficient way of organising delivery of service! Beyond its inevitable ineffectiveness, a federation in which you have state and federal legislatures, laws, courts and governments which has only a federal police is a major constitutional aberration! Even unitary Britain does not have a single unitary policing system!!! It devolves policing to the community level. Why do we think we can defy common sense and produce positive outcomes? The essence of the state’s law making power is the ability to enforce compliance with the law. A government which has constitutional power to make laws, but lacks a police force to enforce those laws is a constitutional toothless bulldog! The governors in the twelve Northern “Sharia” states understood this logic, which is why when they passed Sharia laws early in this republic, they created Sharia State Police (called Hisbah) to enforce it! It is one of the supreme ironies of Nigerian political sophistry that having created religious state police, the same Northern governors are the main opponents of other states establishing their own state policing systems!!! Globally, federal states have federal police (such as the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)) as well as state, town, city, university and even borough police forces. As I mentioned earlier, even an otherwise unitary state like the United Kingdom recognised the need for an exception in terms of the devolved structure of policing simply because the alternative of a centralised UK police would neither be effective or efficient. Policing is a community-based activity-the police officers should have a thorough knowledge of the communities they police, its customs, neighbourhoods, roads and alleys etc. sending a stranger to police a community is simply a colonial approach to policing (which may have been tolerable from the colonialist’s point of view since he was more interested in intimidating the natives and suppressing dissent) which could never succeed in a modern democratic system. One of the silliest arguments being proffered against state police is that the state governors will abuse it! Is the federal government not abusing federal police? Has it not been used to rig elections? Do our federal police not engage in routine extra-judicial killings? Does it not often act as a service provider offering escort and protection services to anyone rich enough to afford it? As far as I can see, the propensity for a state police composed mostly of indigenes and long term residents of an area to abuse its own citizens is far less than that of a colonial, imported police alien to the culture and beliefs of its host community! And that is our daily, practical experience!!! In any event, I believe that state governors already have considerable scope to abuse their powers against opponents or non-indigenes if they were so inclined. They have powers over land, state judiciary, civil service, building and planning approvals, state universities, radio and TV stations, taxation etc. To their credit, I have not seen any significant incidences of systematic abuse of these powers by most state governors. More importantly we have the courts to check abuses of citizen’s rights by any government, state or federal. Fortunately the court charged with enforcement of fundamental human rights under our constitution is the federal high court!!! The other argument offered often is that states cannot afford to run a police force of their own! This of course flies in the face of the reality that across the country, any state that seeks minimal improvements in policing effectiveness has by-and-large taken over funding of their state police commands from the federal government! We know of the Lagos State Security Trust Fund (Ogun, Oyo and other South-West states have followed suit) and the significant spending by Rivers and other Niger-Delta states on the federal police. But then the substantive issue of devolving more powers and revenue to the states and local governments to better empower these tiers which are most relevant to our people’s lives remain a necessity. I also believe using the example of Lagos State that any serious state will include non-indigene, resident groups in the manning of any state police, simply from the standpoint of effectiveness. Lagos state has non-indigene teachers, civil servants, judges, commissioners and other political appointees. Why won’t they employ non-indigenes in their state police? There is a peculiarly Nigerian absurdity in which current and retired police officers are shouting loudest against state police. Given the non-effectiveness of the model they have presided over, why should we listen to them?

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Diversity and Shared Vision

I am writing this from Prague, Czech Republic, the nation rescued from totalitarian rule by the poet Vaclav Havel and his colleagues in the “Velvet Revolution” of 1989. It is a landlocked country in Central Europe bordered by Poland, Germany, Austria, and its former “other half” in the old Czechoslovakia, Slovakia. This is a historic town and place of culture, though I haven’t had time to do my tourism. I will, though, once I’m done with my primary purpose of coming here. I intend to see the Old Town, River Vlatara, Jewish Ghetto, Lesser Quarter, the Iconic Prague Castle, Charles Bridge, and ride on the classic tram. I intend to also see the legacies of communism and the Cold War – the former communist police headquarters, a real nuclear bunker, and the biggest statue of Lenin. After the Velvet Revolution, the old Czechoslovakia was peacefully dissolved on January 1, 1993 into independent Czech and Slovak Republics. The Czech have benefitted from democracy, enterprise and independence – Czech is the first former COMECON (the pro-Soviet Council for Economic Assistance grouping of Socialist and Eastern bloc countries) nation to become a developed country with the highest human development in Central and Eastern Europe and ranked as the third most peaceful country in Europe. But back to my reason for being in Prague! I am attending the 32nd Annual Conference of the Strategic Management Society (SMS). I arrived in Prague Saturday morning and the conference commenced with a welcome cocktail that evening. Sessions commenced 8am on Sunday (!) and I’m taking time out midway into Monday to write this, but what has most caught my attention was not any of the academic presentations but the speech given this afternoon by Carlos Ghosn, the winner of the SMS Lifetime Achievement Award at this year’s conference. Ghosn is the chairman and chief executive of Nissan Motor Co. Ltd, chairman and chief executive officer of Renault, and head of the Renault-Nissan Alliance, an unprecedented case of a single individual heading two separate companies with combined annual global sales of 7.2 million vehicles. I was fascinated not just by Carlos Ghosn’s business profile and achievements, but by his background – Ghosn by his own words was an embodiment of global diversity. He was born in Brazil of Lebanese origin; studied in France and is essentially a French citizen; and he again unusually became CEO of a Japanese company, Nissan! I will leave out the very important business and strategy issues Ghosn raised in his speech, but let me talk about the part of his speech which relates to this article. In commencing his speech, Ghosn reminded us of his multi-national background, his birth in Brazil and return to Lebanon, and contrasted Brazil in which he learnt about harmony in diversity and Lebanon where he noticed that diversity involved significant risk and conflict. In spite of this potential for risk and conflict, Ghosn celebrated diversity (race, ethnic, gender, age) and endorsed it particularly in the context of the firm, but also in the national and global contexts. At the end of his really powerful and thought-provoking speech, I asked Carlos Ghosn a question that perhaps would naturally occur to a Nigerian worried about the problems of ethnicity, religion and perpetual conflict in Nigeria, and remembering that I was visiting a country that had found peace and development only after shrinking into its ethnic and cultural authenticity – “What factors, in your view, accounted for the harmonious diversity in Brazil contrasted with Lebanon in which diversity was a source of war and crisis? And what lessons can we learn from this contrast in the corporate and national contexts?” The award winner’s response drew on his experience in the Nissan-Renault Alliance, an alliance, we must remember, of culturally, ethnically and nationally divergent Japanese and French/European businesses. He noted that at the inception of the relationship when a vision and project was yet to be defined, the collaboration looked sub-optimal as both partners focused on each others’ negatives. The French managers complained about Japanese attitudes and vice versa. However, once the leadership created a compelling vision and inaugurated a tough project, both sides focused on the goal, and indeed leveraged each other’s strengths and unique perspectives. The Japanese took planning, strategy, systematic thinking from the Europeans; the French took execution and commitment from the Japanese; and both sides benefitted from each other, creating synergistic outcomes. He warned – “Don’t ever promote diversity where there is no vision and project!” That is the problem with Nigeria. We have assembled very diverse ethnicities and religions into a country but we have not defined a shared vision of what the essence is, where we are going and how we would live together. There is no shared vision; and there is no shared project. The outcome is a dysfunctional state in which each individual takes care of himself and his family; each ethnic group distrusts the other; communities war against their neighbours; and people kill others in the name of religion. If we refuse to agree to a common purpose and project, this situation will get worse, not better!

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Madam Aviation and the President's Friends

Last week Thursday Arik Air, Nigeria’s de facto “national carrier”, was in limbo, with all its domestic flights grounded. I was a victim, stuck in Port Harcourt “International” Airport for many hours, until good fortune intervened in the form of an Aero Contractors plane diverted from Owerri late in the day (night actually), which evacuated many of us stranded Lagos-bound passengers. Arik’s domestic operations had been disrupted by the aviation unions, but there was no doubt in anyone’s mind who had ministered the instigation! At the time of Arik’s grounding, the airline was responsible for perhaps seventy percent or more of domestic flights with the exit of DANA Airlines, Air Nigeria, First Nation Airways and Chanchangi Airlines. The only alternatives to Arik – Aero and IRS – accounted for less than thirty percent of domestic passenger traffic. And once Arik was grounded, aviation services effectively came to a halt within Nigeria! Only an irresponsible manager could have conspired to foist such a situation on Nigerians. The cost in economic and social terms to the Nigerian nation was incalculable! The political goodwill lost by President Jonathan was not quantifiable! As I sat along with hundreds other frustrated Nigerians AND EXPATRIATES in shabby and uncomfortable airport terminals, I wondered how Nigeria got this way. The apparent offence of Arik was that it owed aviation agencies some amount which was itself a subject of disagreement between the airline and the aviation authorities. How come the sector unions woke up one day and proceeded to disrupt airline operations? Is that one of the functions of trade unions? Was there any connection between the action taken against Arik and the request by a National Assembly committee that Arik be designated the nation’s official national carrier? I recall that the current minister of aviation, Stella Oduah (Ogiemwonyi), has a pet project of creating a national carrier for the country? I also recall Air Nigeria’s proprietor, Jimoh Ibrahim, declaring in the wake of the airline’s troubles that he would not be blackmailed into being part of any national carrier project? Is there any truth to these blackmail allegations? We have since heard rumours of demands by someone for five percent of Arik’s shareholding. Is there any truth in these allegations? Who made such demands? We have also heard rumours that the purported demands were expressed to have been on behalf of a higher authority? Is this true? These are allegations that require immediate investigation by law enforcement agencies – the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) and the police – so that the confidence of Nigerians and the international community in our government and aviation sector will not be irreparably damaged! Now we have numerous controversies in the sector, including the forceful ejection of MAEVIS Limited, FAAN’s erstwhile revenue concessionaire, from the Murtala Mohammed International Airport, Lagos; the ministry’s troubles with Bi-Courtney, the concessionaire who built the MM2 domestic terminal; the banning and unbanning of DANA Airlines in the aftermath its air crash; the grounding and exit from the industry of Air Nigeria; and now the current problems of Arik Air. Are the officers in charge promoting or destroying the fortunes of the sector? Given reports that the minister is very close to President Jonathan, I have a suspicion that the presidency may sooner than later suffer grave embarrassment on account of the activities of this ministry! “Madam Aviation” is not the only friend of the president that may cause him serious headache. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has recently released a list of AMCON debtors whom it has restrained Deposit Money Banks from extending further credit to. At the very top of the list is a notable friend of Mr President and member of the regime’s National Economic Management Team (NEMT), Femi Otedola. According to the CBN, Otedola’s company owes AMCON N192.4bn. Other major debtors who may be considered proximate to the presidency include Patrick Ifeanyi Uba’s Capital Oil and Gas (N48bn); Arumemi-Ikhide’s (also owner of Arik!) Rockson Engineering which owes N60.4bn; recently resigned power minister, Barth Nnaji, whose Geometric Engineering owes N19.7bn; Wale Babalakin whose three companies – Bi-Courtney Limited, Roygate Properties, and Resort International are indebted to the combined total of N54.2bn; former minister of interior, Emmanuel Iheanacho, whose Integrated Oil and Gas owes N6.7bn; and Gitto Construzioni whose debt stands at N11.83bn. I recall warning on these pages about the dangers of crony capitalism, a path we now seem to be treading. This style will only get our president into trouble, in office or afterwards! Talking about the NEMT and the president’s friends, I was amused to notice the president deploying three “billionaire” members of the team (Atedo Peterside; Femi Otedola; and Aig-Imoukhuede) to persuade Nigerians about the merits of Sanusi Lamido’s N5,000 note. Did the presidency think these very rich men could persuade poor and angry Nigerians to support the policy? Anyway, while Otedola and Imoukhuede were a bit circumspect, Peterside blasted: “If I was the one, I would have printed N10,000!” or words to same effect. How does he feel now that the policy has been “suspended”? Someone should please beg our respected Atedo Peterside to stay out of public advocacy – it is evidently not his calling!

Friday, September 21, 2012

Obama's Failed Appeasement Strategy

President Obama’s foreign policy has centred on improving relations with Arab and Muslim nations. He appears to proceed from an assumed guilt complex and seems apologetic for America’s (or Republican?) exercise of global power. He went to Cairo to “speak” with the Arab/Islamic world; he bowed waist-level before the Saudi King, a curious gesture that still requires interpretation given his off-handed, almost superior posture with Western dignitaries (e.g. The Queen of England); he tolerated the notion of a Mosque at the World Trade Centre bombing site against majority US opinion; and has consistently shown irritation with Israel. Indeed Obama’s body language suggests willingness to sacrifice the US-Israeli relationship for a US-Arab/Islamic one! As Iran marches determinedly towards nuclear weapons, it seems in spite of his words and reluctant sanctions, that Obama is willing to countenance Iranian nuclear arms. While the Israelis, for good reason given Ahmedinejad’s genocidal rhetoric, are paranoid about the Iranian nuclear threat, Obama seems unperturbed and if one focuses on actions rather than words, one would think that Obama really does not mind Iran getting the bomb! As the Arab “Spring” developed, Obama quickly sacrificed US allies in Egypt (Hosni Mubarak) and elsewhere. While this columnist sympathised with America’s decision to side with Tunisians, Egyptians and Libyans against their erstwhile dictators, I wondered at the complete loss of US initiative as events unfolded! America was being led down a path it did not define; could not influence or control; and yet its power and resources were deployed in support of the protesters, activists and rebels, including a diverse crowd of Islamists, former terrorists, far right Salafists, Al Qaeda extremists, and other dangerous groups with barely-disguised hatred of America. As the Arab uprisings progressed, the US did not insist on projecting its values-would the emerging states make an irrevocable commitment to democracy? (In Egypt some former protesters later carried banners saying, “We don’t want democracy, only Islam!!!”); would they protect religious minorities? (Such as Egypt’s Coptic Christians who have subsequently been victims of religiously-inspired violence); would they protect women? would they adopt secular constitutions? In short US policy makers, often led by their noses by people like Fareed Zakaria and Christiane Amanpour, did not define their objectives based on US values and interests! It is a sign of the shocking naiveté of US policy that the new Muslim Brotherhood leader in Egypt, has since visited Saudi Arabia, Iran and China! Meanwhile Hillary Clinton was heckled and booed as she visited Cairo, presumably to remind Morsi of America’s role in his emergence! Remember also that in spite of America’s help, the transition government arrested and prosecuted US NGOs for spying against Egypt! It is the same helplessness and confusion that defines US policy in Pakistan! This is the nation that harboured Osama Bin Ladin and much of the leadership of the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the Haqqani Network, all undisguised American enemies. Like Egypt which collects well over a billion dollars in US military and non-military aid annually, Pakistan is a major recipient of US aid, yet at best ambivalent about its US relationship. Reports suggest that Osama Bin Ladin regularly evaded the US trail whenever it shared intelligence with the Pakistanis. Eventually the US learnt to keep its plans to itself and killed him at a location proximate to a major Pakistani military facility! The Pakistanis have subsequently put the medical doctor who assisted the US CIA on trial for treason! US appeasement and political correctness is also evident in Nigeria! Recall that Ambassador Johnnie Carson, Susan Rice, Hillary Clinton and other members of the sentimental, liberal crowd in the State Department have urged a strategy of appeasement on the Nigerian government in response to “Boko Haram”. They have agonised and dithered over designating our local terrorists as a “foreign terrorist organisation” despite its bombing the UN building in Abuja, killing thousands of civilians, bombing countless Churches across Northern Nigeria and attacking newspaper houses. The State Department’s overriding consideration has been that designating “Boko Haram” as a terrorist organisation would portray the US as against Nigeria’s Northern Muslims! The US Congress has had to take the initiative in that regard. This past week, Obama and Clinton’s appeasement strategy has fully come home to roost!!! There are fierce anti-American demonstrations in twenty states across the Middle-East and North Africa; the US Ambassador to Libya who helped the rebels take power (and performed sentimental gestures such as eating in his Arab-Muslim driver’s home with his wife to show America’s love for the romanticised “new Libya”) and three of his officers have been killed; the Egyptians nearly allowed a similar occurrence as US Cairo embassy was attacked; Sudan and Yemen would not even allow US marines in to protect US lives and assets; President Morsi would not issue an unequivocal condemnation of the Cairo attack! While Egyptian officials expressed sympathy in English tweets, their Arabic version justified the US embassy attacks! Obama now reminds of Jimmy Carter during the Iranian hostage crisis in 1980! Anyone who thinks this was a spontaneous reaction to a stupid film is irredeemably naïve!!! In his eagerness to build friendly relations with Arab and Middle-East nations, Obama ended up projecting weakness and simple-mindedness. Hopefully he (and Clinton) will snap out of romantic delusions and begin to define US foreign policy based on substance, geo-politics, interests, shared values and pursuit of global peace.

Friday, September 14, 2012

The Lagos Road Traffic Law

I alluded to the new Lagos State Road Traffic Law in my article “A law and order state” a few weeks back. In a recent interaction with the Lagos State attorney-general, Ade Ipaye, he asserted that “the law fundamentally goes beyond road traffic to issues of how we use our roads and the unacceptable road culture in Lagos; impact of road traffic behaviour on economic productivity; impact of road traffic culture on social relations and society as a whole” or words to the same effect. I agree with the honourable attorney-general and more! My personal view has always been that the way we manage traffic in Lagos affects our livelihoods, mobility, quality of life, economic productivity, mental and physical health, safety, environment and life expectancy, tourism prospects and security. Indeed, it fundamentally defines us as a people – the type of culture and civilisation we are trying to bequeath to our children, and whether we seek to build a society based on law and order. As Ade Ipaye argued, let’s examine where we are coming from and what unfortunately we have come to accept – a society in which the average citizen wakes up at 4am every working day and goes to bed around 11 o’clock every night essentially due to traffic constraints! That Citizen Ade, Olu or Ola leaves his or her home by 4.30-5am to escape excruciating traffic, yet spends the next two hours in traffic, arriving the office drained and exhausted. Those who leave their homes later than 6am will usually spend hours sitting in slow moving (or no moving) traffic and essentially go to the office to rest from their daily ordeal while dreading their inevitable return journey home. The impact on economic productivity is severe, and there is no doubt that traffic and road usage are significant contributing factors to low national productivity. There are many obstacles on the way – commercial motorcycles in their thousands (some statistics say millions, in Lagos State alone!) ridden by untrained, illiterate, often under-age riders weave in and out of traffic causing accidents and daily deaths and injury; bus drivers high on “paraga”, “ogogoro”, and, I heard a new one recently, “seven-seven”, drive recklessly and irresponsibly like mad men causing obstructions and scratching cars as they go; some guy in a hurry suddenly opts to drive against traffic, and as he gets away with it, hundreds other motorists follow his example leading to predictable gridlock, and everyone coming thereafter is condemned to spend one hour at the spot before the confusion tapers off! Meanwhile, as they wait, armed robbers on “okada” take advantage, robbing people as they are stuck immobile in traffic. During the day these robbers operate; at night, they have a field day! In a modern society, we accept all these and worse – we accept that motor parks should be places where alcohol and drugs are sold; indeed, we laugh and joke at the notion that virtually all bus drivers and their conductors are high on intoxicating substances, and yet we proceed to enter those same buses; we see people die and maimed every day from “okada” accidents, yet we act like it’s an unavoidable state of affairs; we see these “okadas”, despite the high accident rate, carry pregnant women and children or people carrying heavy luggage, yet we think society can or should be organised in this manner; street traders add hours to our travel time and we don’t complain – indeed, some of us buy meat, pepper, electronics, textiles and virtually all our household provisions in traffic! We struggle for right of way with “omolanke” and refuse cart pushers who inevitably scratch our cars and buses, but I guess we say “that’s life”! Some big man gets fed up with all the bedlam and seeks to insulate himself by equipping his car with a siren and patrol vehicle, with which he drives all of us off the road, and we say “that’s life”! Trailers park on one lane of a two-lane road, and that’s life? Windscreen wipers, often under-age children who should be in school, intimidate and blackmail us on the road, and that’s life! We hear that most robberies are now conducted on “okada”; we hear that the overwhelming proportion of injuries and fatalities reported at outpatient wards of general hospitals are caused by “okadas” and “that’s life”? What type of people are we? What type of society and culture are we trying to create? What civilisation is this that we are willing to live in? And then people focus on the punishments! I have a friend who has lived in Canada until recently and yet complains about the punishment for one-way driving. Have you ever seen someone drive against traffic in Canada, United Kingdom, USA, Ghana, or South Africa? If someone does, he would clearly be presumed to be insane. What is inevitable about such behaviour that all we complain about is the punishment? Why should we condone drunk and or reckless driving in spite of the high price that society pays in economic and social costs? Why should we accept road behaviour that would be inconceivable in other parts of the world? Why should we keep talking about the good things in other societies when we are unwilling to pay the price they paid, and still pay?

Monday, August 27, 2012

As The Spirit Leads!

The phrase and context of this column’s title belongs to Remi Babalola, former Minister of State for Finance who was reported to have wondered in bewilderment, whether there was a holistic, coherent and well thought-out strategy behind Lamido Sanusi’s unfolding banking sector reforms or whether the “reforms” were proceeding “as the Spirit leads”!!! Several incidents appear to offer corroboration for the perception that the latter possibility is supportable-CBN introducing clearly unconstitutional Islamic banking guidelines in January, and then replacing with less blatantly unconstitutional ones in June 2011; and ordering banks to remove all Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) installed in public places; then months later introducing a “cashless” policy under which it encouraged banks to rapidly restore them, being prominent examples! And true, no one has seen any document articulating an integrated philosophy, plan and programme for the CBN’s overall financial sector agenda. The frequency of new policy announcements and amendments is so perplexing that one worries whether banks themselves are successfully keeping track!!! The recent CBN announcement that it would introduce a N5,000 note in 2013 unfortunately reinforces the impression that it acts tactically rather than based on a comprehensive strategy! I do not support the proposal which also includes converting currency N20 and below into coins; and re-designing all others for several reasons-it is unnecessary and diversionary, and does not amount to a substantial policy action; it will cost us significant resources (which in the light of its doubtful value or purpose means such expenditure is wasteful and profligate); it contradicts the “cashless” direction the CBN has embarked on at great cost to the industry and customers; it suggests an arbitrary and weak policy analysis process at the CBN; and it is unclear what motives, logic and economic imperatives have necessitated the policy. The best one can say on the matter is that it is inconsequential and of no effect on the economy or financial sector, and that is only if one ignores the costs and disruptions that would result there from. Please note that I do not subscribe to the popular, but misplaced argument that the policy would cause inflation! To the best of my knowledge, there is no scientific and/or economic evidence that mere introduction of higher currency denominations while retaining lower ones, without more will cause inflation. Inflation is a monetary (and not currency) phenomenon, usually caused by money supply dynamics and would not result simply because of introduction of a higher value currency note. Inflation may be caused by excess demand, high costs, or excessive increase in money supply. If the CBN combined this policy with too much money in circulation; Naira depreciation; or very low interest rates for instance, we may observe higher inflation, but that may be due more to those other variables, than the new note. That said, the basic underpinning of the “cashless” policy was to make financial and payments systems more efficient and less costly, the argument being that cash handling costs are excessive in our cash heavy economy and that migrating to cashless platforms would help reduce transaction costs and introduce better payments efficiency. Other benefits of the cashless system (which I personally supported in various media) included reducing corruption and money laundering, both of which are better facilitated through cash transactions! Significantly, the cashless policy is more relevant and impactful precisely in relation to higher value payments! To introduce N5,000 note just months into the cashless regime undercuts and contradicts the CBN’s logic! Admittedly processing N5,000 is cheaper for banks relative to lower denominations, but it still costs MUCH more than an electronic transfer, card or Point of Sale (PoS) payment! And will be big boon to corrupt officials and money launderers!!! In any event, the CBN had two policy alternatives in seeking to deal with cash processing costs-“cashless” banking or higher denominations! It couldn’t logically choose both!!! Beyond these, it is unclear what economic benefits are sought by the policy! Yes higher currency denominations don’t cause inflation; but they don’t reduce or mitigate inflation either! They do not retard economic growth; but they don’t spur it either!! They don’t necessarily increase money in circulation; but they don’t necessarily constrain it either!!! Instead they facilitate corruption and money laundering!!!!!!! The highest currency denomination in the British currency system is the fifty pound note! In the US, even though they have $1,000 notes, no one (except the mafia and other criminals!) sees it!!! The highest denomination regularly encountered in America is the $100 note!!! And this change costs money! Lots of money!!! Considering immediate past CBN Governor, Soludo implemented a comprehensive currency change which included converting some notes to polymer, introducing a N1,000 note etc between 2005 and 2007, it is difficult to justify a change at this time especially as the last one actually spurred controversy over its procurement and cost!!! The best that can be said for this change is that it is unnecessary and cosmetic. It adds no value and is not supported by any apparent economic rationale. The substantive economic policy imperatives facing Nigeria are clear-sustaining and increasing economic growth; diversifying the economy; improving infrastructure; improving fiscal and macroeconomic management; reducing inflation and interest rates; combating corruption; redressing poverty, unemployment and social exclusion; improving Human Development Indices; and improving investment climate and business competitiveness. Tinkering with currency does not help in advancing any of these and may actually hurt some!

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The Ghanaian Transition

President John Atta-Mills of Ghana died on July 24, 2012 and was succeeded by his Vice-President John Dramani Mahama on the same day. Atta-Mills, who was aged 68, served as President of Ghana from 2009 when he took over from ex-President John Kufuor till his death. He had previously been Vice-President under Jerry Rawlings from 1997-2001 and unsuccessfully contested the presidency in 2000 and 2004 as candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). He was the first Ghanaian president to die in office. Born on July 21, 1944, Atta-Mills was Fante from Ekumfi Otuan and attended Achimota School and University of Ghana, Legon where he obtained his law degree in 1967. He studied at London School of Economics and the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London obtaining a PhD in law based on a doctoral thesis in taxation and economic development. He lectured at his alma mater in Legon for twenty-five years and served as Visiting Professor at Temple Law School, Philadelphia, USA. He was in charge of Ghana’s Internal Revenue Service from 1986 to 1996 and remarkably won the presidency in 2009 with only 50.23% of the vote against the equally formidable candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Nana Akufo-Addo. He was married with a son. (Source: Wikipedia) Upon Mills death, his erstwhile Vice-President, John Dramani Mahama was promptly sworn-in as mandated by the Constitution of Ghana. Born in November 29, 1958, Mahama is described by Wikipedia as a communications expert, historian and writer. He was a Member of Parliament from 1997 to 2009 and Minister for Communications from 1998 to 2001. Born in Damongo in Damongo-Daboya Constituency of Ghana, Mahama’s father was also a Member of Parliament. Like Atta-Mills, he attended Achimota and Legon, and obtained a degree in History and post-graduate qualification in communications. He also studied social sciences in the old Soviet Union and worked in Ghana’s diplomatic service and the development sector. He is now the presumptive nominee of the NDC in the next presidential elections and is expected to be confirmed as candidate in a party congress scheduled for September 1, 2012. Nigeria and Ghana share many historical similarities-British colonialism and its legacies of the English language, legal system and civil service amongst others; military interventions early in the country’s post-independence history; return to civil rule after multiple military rulers and coups; and transition from parliamentary to presidential system of governance. Remarkably both countries now share the experience of losing sitting, civilian leaders post-return to democracy-Yar’adua in Nigeria in 2010 and Atta-Mills in Ghana in 2012! But that is where the similarity ends! We can draw several distinctions between the processes of democratic deepening and national cohesion in the two countries as evidenced by the reaction to the demise of these two leaders. In Nigeria, as we all recall, Yar’adua’s illness and subsequent death almost led to the truncation of democracy in Nigeria. There was a long period of denial of his illness; there were several attempts by some to rule by proxy in his stead; there were numerous subterfuges around his illness, medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, re-entry into Nigeria and his eventual death. On the night he was brought back to the country, it was done in the dead of night and all lights were reportedly switched off at the airports during the “operation” conducted by senior military officers without the knowledge of the then Vice-President! Many attempts were made to intimidate then Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan from accepting the position of President and we needed an extraordinary action by the National Assembly to invest Jonathan as Acting President while Yar’adua lay gravely ill in Arabia!!! In the end, it is clear that only the fact that an attempt to prevent Jonathan from taking power as mandated by the Constitution would have resulted in serious danger to our national unity and cohesion prevented such desperation from some cliques! Indeed many would argue that we are still dealing with the consequences of Jonathan then seeking and accepting the nomination of the ruling PDP and winning the subsequent elections in 2011!!! The response in Ghana has been starkly different! Immediately Atta-Mills died, there was no question about what should and would follow-immediate swearing-in of his deputy Mahama in line with the Constitution. No one from Fante quarrelled that there was a presumption that the office was “zoned” to them for eight years! No one threatened fire and brimstone if Mahama goes ahead to contest the forthcoming election. There were no powerful politicians from Atta-Mills region promising to make the country ungovernable if another Fante man was not found to replace him! No one has had the effrontery to demand that the now sitting president, John Mahama must NOT contest the next polls; Atta-Mills wife and entourage did not attempt to hide his death from Ghanaians in a vain hope of grabbing power and national resources for themselves! Insecurity and indeed terrorism has not erupted in Mills’ Fante region to bring Mahama’s government to its knees for having the audacity to declare his intention of contesting!!! The evidence is clear that Ghana’s process of democratic deepening and nation-building is proceeding in a more qualitative manner than in her West African neighbour. Here rather than deepening democracy, we are endangering it and drawing our people further apart than we’ve ever been!!!

Thursday, August 9, 2012

A Law and Order State!

I attended a “thank you” dinner hosted by Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) for donors to the Lagos State Security Trust Fund on Saturday July 7, 2012 at a restaurant in Victoria-Island, Lagos. The dinner was underwritten by First Bank, one of the bigger donors (financially and by “donating” its CEO to serve as a fund trustee. The event was not designed to raise funds, but to thank organisations and individuals who had contributed to the cost of securing Lagos State. Those donors were being appreciated for their civic citizenship and for endorsing the new paradigm in which rather than wealthy individuals and businesses trying (in vain) to secure themselves only, they contribute towards a bigger fund which can leverage scale and synergy, and thus be more effective in securing society as a whole. I am a big admirer of the idea behind the establishment of the trust fund idea (cynics would say “why wouldn’t you since you were appointed a trustee in 2011! But I could disappoint them!!! The role is unpaid; attracts a sitting allowance of only N50,000; and imposes a heavy responsibility since one has in effect accepted the obligation to account, jointly with other trustees and fund management, to very enlightened business, professional and individual donors) since BRF introduced it in 2007. It’s a unique public-private partnership between the state, which has the responsibility for security, and its corporate and private citizens who recognise themselves as stakeholders in the enterprise of creating a conducive environment for business, living and leisure and who are ready for put their money where the mouths lie! It is not supposed to be the ideal-the state should ordinarily have the capacity-constitutionally, financially and operationally, to create its own police and to fund it through its revenues and citizens’ taxes, but Nigeria continues to insist on the dysfunctional irrationality of a federal monopoly on policing while law and order breaks down all over the country! But rather than helplessly wringing his arms, the Lagos State Government created this intervention to bridge the massive funding gap which had rendered the Nigerian police basically impotent in the face of a rising crime wave, now compounded by new phenomenon of fundamentalist terrorism, kidnapping and our old nemesis-corruption and financial crime. Until the fund was created, Lagos was taken over by daily armed robberies on the roads and in our homes (as I can personally testify) and daily fatalities, and even though crime has not been banished from our state, the contrast with the pre-2007 period and with other states, including neighbouring ones is stark! But back to the dinner! With the tension of being asked to make further contributions (in the very short term!!!) removed, it was a relaxed and amiable evening, with Gbenga Adeyinka 1st making the evening a very entertaining one as well-until BRF announced a major change in policy direction in Lagos State! The Governor declared a new emphasis on zero tolerance for unlawful behaviour in the state. There was pin-drop silence as the lawyer-governor cited examples-fraudulent and back-dated documents to support applications for land title perfection, non-tax compliance, gross traffic infractions, building and planning violations etc. Many may have perhaps shifted uncomfortably in their seats, and when Fashola asked the distinguished audience for a voice vote in support of the new direction, the response did not appear to be overwhelmingly enthusiastic! But I think we should support the Governor. If we want development, we must be willing to pay the price! Why should we be happy to visit and/or live in Europe, USA, Singapore, China and other nations and cities who have built successful societies on the back of strict rule of law and refuse to accept the imperative of doing so in our own country? Why should our compatriots be willing to pay taxes in the UK or USA while they join in not paying taxes back at home? Why should we flagrantly breach traffic and urban planning regulations in Nigeria, while admiring the progress other societies which act otherwise are making? I ask these questions not out of self-righteousness; but can’t we all accept the need to change? Of course these changes will also have implications for the ruling classes-if you insist on tax compliance for instance, you will have to be accountable to the tax payer on how the money is spent; if you insist on strict law enforcement, then the leaders will be carefully watched on how they (and their family and friends) relate to the law. But hasn’t BRF earned the right to make higher demands on the citizens? I think he has! And isn’t it in our enlightened self-interest? I think it is!!! That is why I support the new Lagos State Road Traffic Law 2012 recently enacted by the state legislature and signed into law by the Governor. Compliance will involve a culture change by all citizens, but change we must. The government has also enacted a Land Use Act Title Document Regulations 2012 which may also signify a new and stricter regime in respect of land titles. I suspect others may follow. I would personally like to see a law that mandates registration of all domestic staff-drivers, housemaids, cooks, security men, washermen and women; prohibits employment or demands notice of illegal immigrants in household employment and makes employers liable for non-compliance.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Ramadan Kareem

The concept of sacrifice, whether by giving, service, keeping vigil, self-denial or fasting, is well-established in most religions. The importance of fasting, prayer and meditation pervades Christianity, African traditional religions, Buddhism, Judaism and Islam. In Islam, fasting during the entire lunar month of Ramadan is one of the religion’s five pillars and Muslims all over the world have remained, by and large, faithful to that injunction. Ramadan is the ninth month of the Islamic calendar, and the month in which Muslims believe that the Koran was revealed and wherein they are required to fast during the daylight hours from dawn to sunset. Muslims are taught that the Koran was sent down during Ramadan, and thus prepared for gradual revelation by Jibraeel (Angel Gabriel) to Muhammad, Islam’s Prophet, on the occasion called Laylat al-Qadr or “The Night of Power”. Muhammad is believed to have taught his followers that the gates of heaven are open all through Ramadan and gates of hell concurrently closed! The first three days of the next month (Shawwal) is spent in celebration of Eid-il-Fitri or the “festival of breaking fast”. Shia Muslims are reported to also believe that the gospel (Injil) was bestowed on Isa (Jesus) and the Psalms (Zabur) to David during Ramadan. Fasting is very important in the Christian faith. Indeed, our Lord Jesus Christ instituted the practice of fasting when he fasted for forty days and forty nights right at the inception of his ministry. It is probably not co-incidental that Jesus (unlike Adam and Eve) rebuffed the temptations of the devil at the end of this period of fasting, a demonstration perhaps of the power and grace obtained through the disciplining of body, soul and spirit and the tighter connection and communication with the will and mind of God enabled by humans through fasting. Indeed, Jesus Christ suggests in Mathew 17:21 that certain hierarchies of spiritual problems may be addressed only by prayer and fasting. In the contemporary church, while fasting remains very important, there has been a certain “democratisation” of the practice such that it often happens outside and beyond the Lenten season. Individuals, families, church groups and Christian ministers regularly embrace fasting in multiple seasons throughout the year, though Catholics and “Orthodox” churches retain the traditional Lenten fast as well. In Yoruba society, Ramadan is a season of fellowship, goodwill, giving, sharing, bonding and compassion. I have previously written in these pages on the lessons other Nigerians, particularly in Northern Nigeria, and even religious faithful all over the world can learn from the Yoruba about religious tolerance and harmony. I have also shared my personal experience as a child, teenager and youth with Ramadan in a peaceful multi-religious society. Ramadan was my favourite period of the year to visit my maternal grandparents in Sagamu, especially my grandmother, an Alhaja. Even though it was her period of fasting, for me, it was the season of abundance when you could eat your normal three meals a day and yet break fast with her at dawn and sunset. And, of course, the meals, compensatory of the abstention from eating throughout the day, were of higher quality and quantity! Even though the household was Islamic and I had a Christian upbringing and faith, I never felt out of place in any way. This atmosphere of unity was not peculiar to my family. It was the spirit you encountered everywhere in Yorubaland – in Sagamu, Ijebu-Ode, Abeokuta, Ibadan, Ikorodu, Lagos or anywhere else you went during Ramadan or “Ileya” or indeed at Easter or Christmas. In this season when extremists are seeking to destroy the nation on the altar of extremist religious ideology and politicisation of religion, I once again commend the Yoruba example to our brothers and sisters in other parts of the country. Incidentally, that spirit of tolerance and harmony has had positive impact on Yoruba (and Nigerian) society if only you look deeper. For instance, “ajiwere” music, which Muslim youths initially used to entertain the community during Ramadan, evolved into Fuji which was pioneered by Alhaji “Agba” Sikiru Ayinde Agbajelola “Barrister”, Ayinla “Kollington”, and now led by “King” Wasiu Ayinde Marshall (KWAM 1). I believe “Waka” music of “Queen Salawa Abeni” had similar roots. Today, a fusion of Fuji, Yoruba gospel (epitomised in the African Churches such as Cherubim and Seraphim, Celestial, CAC and African Church, but also present in Orthodox and Pentecostal variants), Juju music of King Sunny Ade (KSA) and Chief Commander Ebenezer Obey, US Hip Hop and Rhythm and Blues has emerged, such that you can see traces of these genres in the “Naija” music of initially Shina Peters and currently Nice, Wizkid, late Dagrin, Wande Coal, and even non-Yoruba stars like Ice Prince who sang “Oleku”. In effect, tolerance and harmony in Yoruba society have permitted a synthesis of multiple streams of music and contributed towards creating something greater than the sum of its parts. I suspect such positive fusion may have occurred in other spheres. I gather the greeting “Ramadan Kareem” means “a generous Ramadan”. May the spirit of material and spiritual generosity (in effect love, peace and unity) be restored in Nigeria and may hateful ideologies and violence be banished from our land. Amen. I wish all our Muslim brothers and sisters a generous Ramadan!  

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

The Ironsi Syndrome

General J.T.U Aguiyi-Ironsi the unintended beneficiary of Majors Ifeajuna and Nzeogwu’s abortive coup of January 15, 1966, took power largely unprepared for its political and administrative implications. Outside the barracks and battle-field, he was out of his elements! Adewale Ademoyega in his book, “Why We Struck” wrote that Nzeogwu and himself quickly christened Ironsi’s a “do-nothing government”, described him as “non-revolutionary and reactionary” and noting that Ironsi’s primary governing strategy was the “ill-conceived notion of placating the Northerners”. His job admittedly wasn’t easy given prevailing circumstances! Max Siollun in “Oil, Politics and Violence: Nigeria’s Military Coup Culture 1966-1976” noted “as the pattern of killings in the January coup emerged, Northern soldiers became increasingly enraged by the murder of their two most senior politicians…and their four most senior soldiers by Igbo officers”. Being Igbo, Ironsi betrayed guilt complex in relations with the North and resorted to appeasement. Siollun documented his dilemma-“if Aguiyi-Ironsi bowed to Northern pressure and immediately tried the Majors, he would face a backlash from Southern officers, many of whom held sensitive military posts. If he went with Southern opinion and released them, he might be faced with a mutiny by Northern soldiers…Aguiyi-Ironsi was caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place…it proved impossible to keep both sides simultaneously content.” Both Lt. Col David Ejoor and “Black Scorpion” Benjamin Adekunle stated they didn’t envy Ironsi’s position! Ironically even though Ironsi’s Supreme Military Council (SMC) eventually scheduled public trial of the mutineers for October 1966, he would be dead and buried before then! Ironsi appointed relatively junior Lt. Colonel Yakubu Gowon as Army Chief of Staff “based on a desire to redress the imbalance caused as a result of the killings of officers of Northern origin” but “however his good intentions were mistaken in certain quarters and he was seen as a weakling who sought to over-appease the Northern elements in the army and by implication, the Northerners in general” (General Phillip Effiong, Ojukwu’s eventual deputy in “Nigeria and Biafra: My Story”) Brigadier Ogundipe had been under the impression that he was summoned back from abroad to head the army and was initially unsure what his responsibilities at the “Supreme Headquarters” were. Effiong says, “in retrospect, it could be argued that this (Gowon’s appointment) was Ironsi’s palpable mistake”. Ironsi also appointed Kam Salem as Police Inspector General and M. D Yusuf as Head of Police Special Branch (Intelligence) placing his entire security in Northern hands!!! Ironsi’s personal orderly and bodyguard and one of his ADCs were also Northerners! In spite of appeasement however, Northern anger rose, rather than ebb! Apart from a desire to see the mutinous officers punished, the North was incensed by two other Ironsi decisions-planned rotation of military governors and battalions, and the infamous Decree 34 which purported to unify the civil services of the regions and federation. Even though all members of the SMC took part in these erroneous decisions, Northern leaders took it as Ironsi’s Igbo conspiracy to enslave the North! According to General Alexander Madiebo, General Officer of the Biafran Army, (“The Nigerian Revolution and the Biafran War”) “the plot to overthrow General Ironsi’s government was slow, deliberate and systematic” and Siollun concurs that “plotting by the Northern officers was carried out almost openly” with Lt. Colonel Murtala Muhammed, then Inspector of Signals and Majors Martin Adamu and Theophilus Danjuma as leaders. Danjuma and Lieutenant Walbe were part of Ironsi’s security detail!!! Madiebo believes that the plot was hatched at Ahmadu Bello University and executed by academics, civil servants, politicians and military officers of Northern origin. Madiebo agrees that Ironsi “aspired to rule successfully by compromise. For this reason, it tried to placate those who sought to destroy it and took no action on various substantiated reports available to it concerning plans to overthrow it” Many senior Northern officers openly called for a coup, particularly Murtala Muhammed and Hassan Katsina. Muhammed openly called Ironsi a “fool” and Katsina declared that when Northerners were ready for their own coup, it would be very “bloody indeed” and conducted in broad daylight! Northern participants at a platoon commanders’ course in Kaduna (including one Lieutenant Abacha!) sent an anonymous letter to Gowon warning senior Northern officers to act or else they would; restiveness of Northern rank and file prompted a security review led by Ogundipe but no pre-emptive action was taken. A meeting of Emirs and Chiefs in June 1966 demanded abrogation of Decree 34 and return to the pre-coup regional status quo; punishment for participants in the January coup; and no investigations must be conducted into the May 1966 riots in which up to 3,000 Southerners were killed. These demands demonstrated that Ironsi’s emboldened adversaries now recognised he could be pushed around without consequences!!! On June 19, 1966, based on very credible reports of an imminent coup, Madiebo rushed to Lagos to inform Ironsi, who responded by inviting Gowon, Kam Salem and MD Yusuf to listen to Madiebo’s account. The three gentlemen naturally denied the report and Madiebo was chastised for rumour-mongering! In Madiebo’s words, “Ironsi had lost his last opportunity to survive by asking the very people who were alleged to be plotting to overthrow him to investigate their plot and report to him”. By July 29, 1966, Ironsi was dead and Gowon succeeded him!!!

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Genocide and Ethnic Cleansing

Ethnic Cleansing is “a purposeful policy designed by one ethnic or religious group to remove by violent and terror-inspiring means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographic areas” (Wikipedia). A Committee of Experts on the subject described it as "the planned deliberate removal from a specific territory, persons of a particular ethnic group, by force or intimidation, in order to render that area ethnically homogenous." The literature says ethnic cleansing may be carried out by means of “murder, torture, arbitrary arrest and detention, extra-judicial executions, rape and sexual assaults, confinement of civilian population in ghetto areas, forcible removal, displacement and deportation of civilian population, deliberate military attacks or threats of attacks on civilians and civilian areas, and wanton destruction of property” and declares that “those practices constitute crimes against humanity and can be assimilated to specific war crimes. Furthermore, such acts could also fall within the meaning of the Genocide Convention". Ethnic cleansing is different from genocide, but both exist “in a spectrum of assaults on nations or religio-ethnic groups. Ethnic cleansing is similar to forced deportation or population transfer whereas genocide is the intentional murder of part or all of a particular ethnic, religious, or national group.” According to Wikipedia, "literally and figuratively, ethnic cleansing bleeds into genocide, as mass murder is committed in order to rid the land of a people."!!! The United Nations (UN) defines ethnic cleansing as "rendering an area ethnically homogeneous by using force or intimidation to remove from a given area persons of another ethnic or religious group." Genocide is "the deliberate and systematic destruction, in whole or in part, of an ethnic, racial, religious, or national group”. While ethnic cleansing has been primarily associated with ethnic bloodletting unleashed in the former Yugoslavia between Serbs, Croats and Bosnians, genocide has had wider application-against the Jews, in Rwanda and even in the Yogoslav crisis. Genocide is legally defined in Article 2 of the 1948 United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (CPPCG) as "any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: killing members of the group; causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life, calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; [and] forcibly transferring children of the group to another group." The International Criminal Court (ICC) which was created in 2002 now has authority to try people from states that have signed the treaty. Genocide scholars regard the denial of genocide by its perpetrators and collaboration as a consistent pattern throughout history. Finally Crimes against humanity, are defined by the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court Explanatory Memorandum as "particularly odious offenses in that they constitute a serious attack on human dignity or grave humiliation or a degradation of one or more human beings. They are not isolated or sporadic events, but are part either of a government policy (although the perpetrators need not identify themselves with this policy) or of a wide practice of atrocities tolerated or condoned by a government or a de facto authority. Murder; extermination; torture; rape; political, racial, or religious persecution and other inhumane acts reach the threshold of crimes against humanity only if they are part of a widespread or systematic practice. Isolated inhumane acts of this nature may constitute grave infringements of human rights, or depending on the circumstances, war crimes, but may fall short of falling into the category of crimes under discussion." The point of all these definitions is this-the incidents that are going on in Northern Nigeria, particularly in Barkin Ladi, Riyom and other local governments in Plateau State; in Tafawa Balewa local government of Bauchi State and in parts of Nasarawa and Benue States in Nigeria’s middle-belt appear to have risen to the legal definition of ethnic cleansing, genocide and crimes against humanity!!! There is little disagreement over the facts-some people (lazily described by media and security agencies as “Fulani Herdsmen”, who bear powerful guns and wear bullet-proof vests) are killing large numbers of people of other ethnic and religious groups often in tens and hundreds in what looks definitely like a deliberate attempt to eliminate those ethnic groups from the areas in question. The attacks clearly have the intention of destroying at least in part if not whole those ethnic groups and have involved killing, maiming and raping members of the targeted ethnic groups. The attacks have eroded the dignity and humanity of the victims and may be organised by elements within local, state or federal governments. There is no doubting the fact that various levels of government have till date tolerated and condoned these acts and that these events are not isolated matters, but part of a consistent, deliberate and systematic strategy. The activities of “Boko Haram” which issued a public notice to all Christians and Southerners to leave Northern Nigeria and has taken actions through terror to execute such expulsion also rise to the level of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. It now remains to call on the UN and the ICC to investigate these events to ascertain whether these grievous activities are truly on-going in Northern Nigeria and to ascertain culpability.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

The Columnist's Vision

It is appropriate once in a while for any individual, firm, organisation (or even nation!) to re-examine its purpose, essence and mission and ask itself basic and essential questions – Why am I here? What am I trying to achieve? Is it worth it? What will I define as success? Why did I (we) embark on this enterprise or set up this business or organisation? Are our original goals still worth pursuing? Is there a need for a change or adaptation in mission, structure, direction, strategy or goals? Last week I asked myself such fundamental questions in relation to this column and I concluded that it would be worthwhile sharing the column’s vision of Nigeria with my readers. Perhaps an insight into what drives the column would help our audience appreciate more deeply the perspectives, values, preferences and inclinations of the columnist. I have a very clear definition of the kind of Nigeria I would love to see – “a nation of free, enlightened and equal citizens; living in an open, democratic, non-sectarian and progressive society; defined by economic development, social equity, federalism, constitutionalism and the rule of law; and in which all citizens are free and enabled to fulfil their lawful human, socio-economic, political and spiritual potential”. A deconstruction of that statement will reveal four distinct elements: • A nation of free, enlightened and equal citizens • An open, democratic, non-sectarian and progressive society • Economic development, social equity, federalism, constitutionalism and the rule of law, and • Freedom and enablement for citizens to fulfil human, socio-economic, political and spiritual potential. I can also share the reasoning and implications of each of these elements. 1. A nation of free, enlightened and equal citizens: This implies the existence of a fairly robust democracy and fully entrenched fundamental human rights, especially freedom of expression and the media. Citizens must be educated and enlightened and society must be a modern, thinking one. The vision does not permit of ethnic, religious or political hegemony and citizens must be equal and free in every respect. In Nigeria, this element clearly implies strong federal structures (or even con-federal arrangements) and all citizens must be fully free to express their cultural, religious, educational, economic and political aspirations and ideals. 2. An open, democratic, non-sectarian and progressive society: Such a society must have free, independent, ethical and credible media; free elections and freedom of electoral choice; absence of political hegemony or oligarchy; it forbids military rule, and frowns on exclusive ruling cliques and cabals, rule by religious priests, Islamic Mullahs or traditional secret societies, and cannot permit of a society organised on the basis of ethnicity, religion, communal ties or sectarian divisions, or one in which power is based on violence, intimidation or coercion. My ideal society will be focused on progress and development, and not anchored on a pre-modern mindset. 3. Economic development, social equity, federalism, constitutionalism and the rule of law: Given Nigeria’s current economic conditions, this would imply comprehensive structural economic reforms and diversification of the economy; sustained investments in quality public education and healthcare, rapid rural development and enhanced urban infrastructure and transportation, as well as social welfare, employment generation and the alleviation of poverty; abolition of corruption and abuse of power and increased public transparency and accountability would be imperative; it would require a private sector-driven economy, free enterprise and entrepreneurship; protection of private capital and property rights; effective regulation and prevention of market monopolies; and rapid but inclusive economic growth and human development. It would require political and constitutional reforms to strengthen Nigerian federalism, constitutionalism and the rule of law; and would abhor all forms of unconstitutional rule – military, oligarchy, religious, monarchical, fascist, totalitarian, communist or populist! 4. Freedom and enablement for citizens to fulfil human, socio-economic, political and spiritual potential: Such society cannot be oppressive; cannot allow for tiered citizenship of first-class, second-class or other subsidiary levels; all citizens and groups must have strong political freedoms and equality; individual freedom of religion and worship must be guaranteed; and the nation must reject ethnic, religious, sectarian, clique or class hegemony or other political ideology based on superiority of one group or class over others. Every sentence, paragraph, article, perspective or position presented or articulated in this column since inception in 2006 is motivated by this vision of the Nigerian society. Every judgment or preference proffered is driven by careful review and judgment as to what choices are more likely to take us towards that vision. That clarity of vision also makes it extremely easy to recognise people or positions that take or are likely to take Nigeria in the opposite direction! The columnist also enjoys one significant resource – deep familiarity with Nigerian pre- and post-independence history and the current global environment which enables scenario thinking, insight and foresight. I do not believe anyone who is ignorant or not sufficiently grounded in contextual history is competent to discuss or proffer solutions on any matter, no matter how much passion and good faith the person expresses. As they say, the road to hell may be paved with good intentions! Some readers may have a different view of the type of society they would like to inhabit; others, and I believe the overwhelming majority, would be at least broadly aligned with my societal ideal. Whichever, however, our choices and preferences can be easily understood, if not reconciled.