Friday, May 23, 2008

Three Years to Go!

By next week, the Yar’adua Presidency will have spent one quarter of its term, and will have three quarters (i.e. three years out of the initial four year term) left. In real life politics however the mathematics is really different. The last eighteen months to one year of any presidential term is often not available for any serious work of governance. If a sitting president is running for re-election, he naturally devotes that time to securing his party’s re-nomination, and most importantly to his re-election campaign for the general elections. If on the other hand, the sitting president is either not interested or not eligible for a further term, he becomes as they say, a “lame duck” president-still in office, but already in the process of being overrun by the momentum of history.

So in political terms, rather than the three years which this column says is left for the Yar’adua Presidency, there is only about one and a half to two years, all things being equal! That means the next few months will be critical in determining what history will say about the regime. Will it be recorded as a government that actually positively affected the nation’s course or will this time be defined as a missed opportunity? As the regime marks its first anniversary in office, there can be little controversy over the fact that today, there is little to celebrate.

The regime can of course claim as achievements its acclaimed adherence to the rule of law and “due process”, the lowered political tension in the country, the on-going effort to reform our electoral system, and some level of separation of powers (between the executive, legislature and judiciary) and institution-building and strengthening that may result thereby. However each of these claims can be fairly tenuous. As I have argued before, the rule of law while desirable, indeed required for an economy to attract and retain both domestic and foreign investments, and to function in an orderly manner, does not exist in an ideological or policy vacuum. A regime will first have to determine what vision of society it has, before designing the rules and laws to protect and entrench that vision, and ensuring that all authorities and persons abide with that “rule of law”.

We can also argue that while the president’s political profile and personality has indeed lowered political tension, there are yet no substantive actions of the regime which contribute towards institutionalising long term political stability in Nigeria. A good example are the elections (whether re-run state governorship/legislative elections that have been organised by INEC or more scandalously, the local government elections) that have been organised in all the states. Those elections in spite of the rhetoric about electoral reform have not been different, in some cases actually worse than the 2007 elections. For those of us who found Ahmadu Ali’s postulations about democracy as a “military garrison” objectionable, the loud boasts of the new PDP Chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor that his party will rule for the next 60 years (irrespective it seems of whether the administrations elected to office under the party banner perform or not) were an unpleasant surprise, and remind us sadly that the more things appear to change, the more they remain the same! It was also quite disappointing that in spite of the president’s earlier posturing, the PDP eventually shied away from elections (in favour of selection of so-called “consensus” candidates) to select its current party executives.

Lastly, it may appear that the president’s non-aggressive style in his relationship with the legislature and judiciary has allowed these other institutions, particularly the National Assembly to find their feet and begin to play the proper role of the legislature in a democratic society. The enhanced functioning and profile of the federal legislature could indeed have something to do with the president’s hands-off approach, and may indeed have the side-effect of enhancing legislative vibrancy and allowing other institutions to develop, (as nature abhors a vacuum), but it is doubtful if the president can truly claim this as an achievement.

On the other side of the balance sheet, the biggest problem remains the lack of policy clarity in the regime’s first full year in office. The government inherited a NEEDS and NEEDS 2 framework from the preceding government. The government campaigned on the basis of a seven point agenda and also articulated a Vision 20 20 objective of making Nigeria one of the top twenty economies in the world by 2020. And the president explicitly committed to treating the power sector (which was also one of the 7 point agenda priorities) as an emergency sector. Moreover there could not have been any doubt about the nation’s priorities at the time the President was elected into office. However if there was any doubt at all about what our nation’s priorities, this column in a series of “Memos to Yar’adua” defined and communicated those priorities to the then incoming president-electoral reform, Niger-Delta, power and infrastructure (particularly transportation), social sector (meaning education, health, urban mass transportation and rural infrastructure) etc.

The fact that I believe it was, and remains very clear what the nation’s priorities are then makes it somewhat inexplicable why this government has taken up the first full year of its tenure trying to chart a policy direction for Nigeria. There appears to be so much tentativeness about policy direction since May 2007 that appears inconsistent with the weight of evidence which appears compelling in relation to what Nigeria should be doing. The power sector illustrates this bewildering situation in which we appear to be searching vigorously for a new policy for the sector. This as this column has written before is curious given that there exists a Power Sector Reform Act, passed since 2005 that clearly articulates a framework for power sector reform. I find it difficult given my knowledge of the contents of the Act to imagine that this search will lead to a better framework for the sector.

There are other areas in which a policy stagnancy and drift appears to be unfolding. Why for instance has there been no single privatisation since May 2007, while on the other hand several concluded by the former regime have been reversed. For instance, we recall that the privatisation of the refineries was reversed soon after the president’s inauguration. It was significant that no alternative process of privatisation was embarked upon when those privatisations were reversed or in any other case. However the best news one has heard in the policy arena in recent times is the suggestion that a draft Vision 2020 document and a harmonisation draft of NEEDS 2 and the 7 point agenda are now been debated in Abuja. It would be useful if those drafts are urgently finalised so that implementation can commence in the time remaining.

Agbaje is Senior Consultant/CEO of Resources and Trust Company (RTC) a strategy, consultancy and business advisory firm. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy arm of the firm.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

What Did We Say About Power?

Like other Nigerians, I have observed with outrage the revelations about the goings-on in the power sector in the last eight years. My anger is not just at all that had been wilfully done wrongly in the sector, but because it was all so avoidable-if only policy makers took some of the things written on this pages seriously. This week, we will do no more than highlight extracts of some of our past articles touching on the power sector, and leave our readers and policy makers to learn whatever lessons they wish.

The first extract is taken from an article published in 2006-“The contrast with Power has been nothing short of embarrassing. For several years, the attempt to solve the problems in NEPA followed the typical “action government” model-plenty of money, said to be in the region of $1billion pumped into NEPA between 1999 and 2003 with no discernible result, until government realized the folly of that course of action and then returned to a search for right models. While the Naira rain was going on, there was a rational model encapsulated in an Electric Power Sector Reform Bill sitting on the shelves of the National Assembly for four years! I’m told the Bill was submitted in 2001 while the Act was passed in March 2005! Whose job was it to ensure passage of this law? Was there a conspiracy to hold up the bill while huge resources continued to be appropriated? Has there been any accountability for these resources, especially as Nigerians have received no value corresponding therewith?

I am a believer in the new model finally captured in the Act passed in March 2005-unbundling NEPA into generation, transmission and distribution arms, privatization of generation and distribution and investments in transmission accompanied with concessioned private sector management and a new regulatory institution-the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission. So I personally think we finally got the model right, but as we saw with telecommunications, there is more beyond the model. There are people, regulators and institutions, private investments to be attracted, issues of transparency and accountability and there is political will!

Are these other variables right? Do we have the right people in charge in the power sector-at the Ministry, at the PHCN, in the new NERC? Have the managers of the sector been held to account for its performance? Is anyone actually explaining to Nigerians what is going on in that sector? …Recently millions of dollars have again been injected into public sector power projects in the Niger-Delta. With predictable results!!!” The article was titled “POWER FAILURE”, published on May 19, 2006.

At the end of the Obasanjo regime we published an assessment of the regime in June 2007. We said, “Beyond the oil marketing and telecommunications sectors however, the government in its first term had no clear direction concerning economic policy. The regime failed to address two major imperatives of the Nigerian economy-power and transportation infrastructure. It failed to apply the lessons of the telecommunications sector to power and transportation and simply put more money into the incompetent structures existing in the sector, money for which no discernible value can be seen today.” THE OBASANJO SCORECARD Part 3-Economy

In “Memo to Umaru Yar’adua” published on May 30, 2007 just after the President’s inauguration the previous day, we said, “The current state of things imposes three policy priorities on you-resolving the crisis in the Niger-Delta; addressing the failure in the power sector; and extending the economic reforms to the social sector-to the people… The power situation is one you have correctly described as an emergency. Indeed that emergency ought to have been declared in 1999. But what happened? While there were lofty declarations of an intention to radically address the situation, the basic tool for restructuring the sector-the Electric Power Sector Act (EPSA) was held up in parliament from 2001 and only passed in 2005. Meanwhile huge resources were sunk into a bottomless pit called NEPA. I believe there was a conspiracy by vested interests in the executive, legislature, NEPA, and industry groups against power sector reform, and in effect against Nigeria. Alhaji please note that you may be confronted by, or unwittingly drafted into this conspiracy. I am a believer in the basic model encapsulated in EPSA-unbundling NEPA, privatising generation and distribution, investing in the transmission network and finding private managers for it, creating a regulator-Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and adjusting tariffs through a Multi Year Tariff Adjustment (MYTA). The argument of course is that emergency measures may be required because many of these measures will bear fruit only in the medium to long term. While that may be true, I urge you to proceed firmly and resolutely with the framework in EPSA while seeking complementary short term remedies to increase generation and transmission capacity. I am very concerned about “value for money” from the so-called National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) which was rather hastily conceived and implemented based upon a yet untested model from the Rivers State Government Omoku Plant. While in principle I do not object to emergency efforts to boost generation through barge IPPs, and the ones being constructed in the Niger-Delta, I worry that corruption may reduce the value from such hasty contracts.”

Finally just last month (March 5, 2008 precisely) in “Unlocking Power and Solid Minerals Sectors”, we said, “On the other hand, rather than implement the power policy with the same speed displayed in telecommunications, we began a round of ‘government magic’ and elaborate abracadabra which ensured that the more we looked, the less power we saw! The Electric Power Sector Reform Bill which was sent to the National Assembly in the same year-2001-stayed there until it was passed into law in 2005, four whole years later, which is equivalent to the full term in office of a democratic regime! Meanwhile the government made motions of carrying out the preliminary steps which could be executed administratively, before the Bill was passed into law, such as the administrative unbundling of NEPA as a precedent to the legal unbundling after the bill became law. The significant thing is that while the Bill was held down at the National Assembly seemingly by mutual consent of the Presidency, the people in charge of the power sector and the legislature, contracts could be awarded by the bureaucrats in NEPA and the Ministry of Power and Steel. Today while we know that huge sums of money were expended, it is less clear where the money went, or what value Nigeria has derived there from. Eventually when the Power Sector Reform Act was passed, industry watchers (such as your columnist) naively heaved a sigh of relief thinking alas, we had a sustainable model for power sector reform that government was legally mandated to implement. Well we should have known better! Since that Act was passed, the matter has gotten curiouser and curiouser.”
We wait to see if the new power policy direction being considered by President Yar’adua will benefit from history.

Agbaje is Senior Consultant of Resources and Trust Company (RTC) a Strategy, Consultancy and Business Advisory Firm. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy arm of RTC.

Will Lagos be Transformed Again?

Early in 2007, many registered voters in Lagos were in some dilemma over whom to vote for. To the credit of Lagos democracy and politics, we had quite a good field to choose from-the Action Congress with the incumbency advantages arising from its facilitation by then outgoing Governor Bola Tinubu was the front runner and had nominated Babatunde Raji Fashola, previously Chief of Staff to the Governor as its candidate. However, Fashola was not, it appeared going to coast home unchallenged. The AC had in the run up to the elections splintered in some way, and many erstwhile cabinet members in Tinubu’s government and senior party men were running against his designated successor. Even Tinubu’s deputy-governor was running against his nominee on the platform of another party.

I had personal knowledge, and indeed a personal relationship with several of the candidates on offer, but after listening to Fashola, I sensed that he had a thorough understanding of the issues confronting Lagos, and was determined to put in his utmost towards the transformation of Lagos. This column subsequently published an endorsement, then titled “A Morning with Fashola”. I remember that several people vigorously and angrily contested that endorsement, and someone asked me why I did not think it was better in the circumstances to stand aside and watch events unfold rather than take a position that could turn out to be ill-advised. Given my background, experience and relationships, several people actually expected an endorsement of other candidates, rather than Fashola, whom I was accused of so tactlessly endorsing. My response then was that, it has never been our style not to take a position regarding fundamental matters, and that was the line this column was also going to take.

But my most memorable personal encounter in that matter was with a lady, a long term friend, who had before my endorsement made up her mind as to whom she was voting for. Like most urban middle class voters, she was going to vote for another candidate of course, different from Fashola. Unfortunately this individual was accustomed to respecting my views on public affairs and my endorsement put her in some confusion. For the first time, she was inclined to disagree with me, and toe an independent line, but in the end, she made me promise to publish an open apology to her and other Lagos voters, if after one year, Fashola ended up disappointing Lagosians. I made the pledge as requested, silently hoping that I had not gotten myself into some serious trouble, as it now a matter of honour-if Fashola turned out bad, I would have had to publish that public apology.

Thankfully after one year, I sincerely believe that the Fashola administration in Lagos might yet turn out to be one which would transform Lagos into the Lagos of our dreams. I attended the recently concluded 4th Lagos Economic Summit and like most participants, I was suitably impressed with the work (and most importantly the thinking) going on in the current Lagos administration. First of all, the attendance at the Summit demonstrated that the business and international community and indeed other stakeholders take the Lagos State Government seriously. Many bank CEOs, senior representatives of the federal government, leaders of industry and commerce, and the organised private sector were very strongly represented. The attendance from the international community-embassies, international organisations particularly the World Bank and other multilaterals and other foreign businessmen and speakers was pleasantly surprising. Frankly the attendance at the summit was not incomparable to that at the typical Nigerian Economic Summits that have held in Abuja for many years.

In terms of the content, the summit was also quite remarkable. I attended a particular session on transportation and listened to presentations by many speakers notably Dr Dayo Mobereola of Lagos Metropolitan Transport Authority (LAMATA), and was quite impressed with the ideas he expressed for dealing with the challenges of creating a multi-modal transport system in Lagos. The session addressed by a respected former Mayor of Bogota was also quite profound. I also caught part of the discussions on Finance and Housing as well, and it is clear that at the very least there is strong commitment in the administration to launching Lagos into a truly modern mega-city status. The fact that the summit was attended by the leadership of the state civil service hopefully will ensure that the bureaucracy understands the requirements of the envisaged Lagos. Many participants, not least your columnist were happy to see that some planning is going on towards transforming Lagos.

But I did not have to wait for the Summit to know that Governor Fashola and his administration is a serious-minded one. The state cabinet contains several quality people with useful private sector experience such as Jide Sanwoolu, Rotimi Oyekan, Supo Shasore, Ben Akabueze and others whose presence in government suggests an inclination to blend the politicians with some experienced technocrats and infuse governance in Lagos with some professionalism. To the credit of Bola Tinubu, he had shown the way in this regard with a very qualitative cabinet that had the likes of Yemi Cardoso, Wale Edun, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, Dr Leke Pitan and such personalities. The governor himself is a very focused and visionary person and he has the values and the orientation required for true leadership.

Most importantly, in terms of activity, Fashola’s government has been incredibly hyper-active-awarding multiple road contracts all over the state, beautifying and greening Lagos, developing a new Atlantic City, rebuilding educational and health infrastructure and investing in training teachers and civil servants. But there is yet a lot more to do. The challenge of infrastructure, education, health, insecurity, power supply and even the environment in Lagos is immense. In the process of financing all its initiatives, the government risks alienating the voters through over-taxation, and the AC is isolated within the political space, putting pressure politically on the government. Nevertheless, Fashola must follow through on all the initiatives and ideas canvassed at the Summit and implement all the items on its very loaded agenda. On the opening day of the summit, I listened to a very articulate vote of thanks by my namesake, Opeyemi Bamidele who asserted that perhaps Tinubu’s greatest legacy to Lagosians would turn out to be his nomination of Fashola as his successor. That is a compliment I completely share.

Agbaje is the Senior Consultant/CEO of Resources and Trust Company (RTC), a strategy, consultancy and business advisory company. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy arm of the firm.

The Season of Probes

It is now clear that a de facto comprehensive probe of the administration of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo has been launched by the National Assembly. This is not the first time a former government has had its activities examined by a succeeding administration. In the 1960s, the Coker Commission examined the affairs of Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s government during his reign as Premier of the Western Region. The government of General Murtala Muhammed launched a series of enquiries into the conduct of military governors and civil servants during the administration of General Yakubu Gowon. In the end, many civil servants were compulsorily retired while only two (Generals Mobolaji Johnson and Oluwole Rotimi in Lagos and the Western States respectively) were exonerated out of the twelve military governors of the time.

Ex-President Obasanjo himself set up the Christopher Kolade Enquiry into contract awards and transactions carried out under the administrations which preceded his election to office in 1999. At the State level, many succeeding governors, military or civilian have often set up review panels to examine general or specific matters carried out under previous regimes. However this is the first time the legislature is pioneering a probe of a previous civilian administration. No one has formally declared that the Obasanjo regime is in the dock, but only someone who is deaf, dumb and blind will not perceive that Obasanjo is in the process of undergoing a most exhaustive examination of his activities as President between 1999 and 2007.

The unfolding scenario is at first curious given that Obasanjo was President under the same Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) platform as his successor, President Umaru Musa Yar’adua. Indeed Yar’adua as we all know was the personal choice of Obasanjo, as PDP candidate and Nigeria’s President, and he went around the nation campaigning vigorously for his endorsed successor. Both chambers of the National assembly are exhaustively dominated by members of the same party and in deed many of them were the products of elections which the whole world (apart from Professor Maurice Iwu) believes were thoroughly rigged in favour of Obasanjo’s party’s candidates. The fact that many of the PDP candidates emerged as party candidates through a process many have characterised as selection by governors and party chieftains rather than through a system of internal party democracy was supposed to guarantee the loyalty of the legislators to Obasanjo’s legacy. This is so especially because before the 2007 elections, the Ahmadu Ali and Bode George-led PDP had carried out a de-registration of party members whose loyalty to Obasanjo could not be guaranteed. It now appears that in spite of their best efforts, not a few disloyal elements appear to have made it into elected offices!

Actually this illustrates more than anything else Obasanjo’s failure to internalise the nature of true and enduring leadership. You can not secure loyal supporters through any means other than shared values and aspirations and through a process of mutual respect and loyalty between the leader and his followers. Leadership especially in politics flows from a belief that the leader understands the interests of the followers and will protect those interests even when it may not be convenient or expedient. True leadership is securing the spontaneous cooperation and commitment of the led, because they trust and believe in the integrity and commitment of the leader. A true leader will elevate the motives of his supporters rather than descend to the base motivations of the crowd, not to talk of exploiting their fears and weaknesses. True power derives from influence over people, whether or not formal sanctions of political or bureaucratic office are attached thereto.

The probes also confirm that Obasanjo never quite fully understood the nature of political power in Nigeria, in spite of having being a military Head of State for three years and an elected President for eight. Obasanjo believed it is possible to erect a power base on the infrastructure of an artificial political creation such as the PDP. He did not quite figure out how shallow the PDP’s roots are politically speaking, nor did he appreciate that real power in Nigeria is constructed on structures with deeper connections with the people-their communities, ethnic and religious organisations and subliminal loyalties. If Obasanjo understood this, he would have understood that it is impossible to build a national political power base merely based on personal interests and alliances, without a superstructure with deeper roots. Perhaps the ex-President’s greatest error was insulting the young speaker of the House of Representatives (and in effect the whole House) at a time when he had many reasons not to attract their ill will.

Anyway, the ex-President has made his mistakes and now, for good or for ill, his legacy is in question, less than one year after leaving office. The House of Representatives has destroyed whatever remains of Obasanjo’s public goodwill with the revelations at the power sector probe. The national anger over the management of the power sector between 1999 and 2007 is well justified. I personally believe the government abused the trust and expectations of the people in its management of the sector. Power was a major national priority, but instead of doing what it knew was required to deliver power, many cynical measures were introduced time and again designed in my view not to give us power, but to award lucrative contracts. I believe the real questions the House of Representatives should be asking is examining the cost of those contracts relative to similar contracts in other parts of the world.

The Senate probe of Abuja land deals has being more problematic. I agree that clearly it seems that much arbitrariness characterised the previous administration’s policies in the FCT administration, and politically-connected individuals appear to have benefited from the confusion. Many others have had their buildings destroyed, their allocations revoked and re-allocated to better-favoured persons all in questionable circumstances. There was neither transparency nor consistency, it seems clear in the sale of the federal government’s properties in Abuja and in other parts of the country. However there are good grounds to agree with those who have questioned the credibility of some of the panel members. It is against the rules of natural justice for individuals who appear to have conflicts of interests to sit over matters in which those interests may be called to play. Already there is talk of a probe into the aviation sector and road construction contracts during the Obasanjo years and a potentially explosive enquiry into the oil sector is about to be launched.

Whatever happens, we hope all the reports of these panels will be handed over to the EFCC, ICPC and the Police to see if any crimes were committed by any individuals so that after all the drama, the law will then take its course.

Agbaje is the Senior Consultant/CEO of Resources and Trust Company (RTC) a strategy, business advisory and consultancy services firm. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy arm of RTC

The Travails of Iyabo Obasanjo

When it rains, it pours. That must be the frame of mind of Iyabo Obasanjo as all sorts of tribulations have afflicted her since May 2007. This was not how the script was written! She had been elected a Senator in the 2007 general elections. Upon the inauguration of the Senate, she had being named Chair of the Senate Health Committee. She is also a member of other committees-Security and Intelligence, Land Transport, Science and Technology, Education, Inter-Parliamentary and National Planning. Before her election to the Senate (some dispute that she won a free contest in the Abeokuta Senate race), she had been the Ogun State Commissioner for Health and an influential participant in Ogun State and national politics. It was not part of the plan that Iyabo Obasanjo would be a wanted person, sought by the EFCC to face allegations of corruption before a Federal High Court. No, that was not the plan!

She is the powerful daughter of the departing ex-President who by virtue of his position as Chairman of the ruling party’s Board of Trustees was billed to continue in control of the party, and perhaps government. She had probably known President Umaru Yar’adua from childhood. Remember that while her father was Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters-in effect the Prime Minister of Nigeria from 1975 to 1976, President Yar’adua’s elder brother was Federal Minister for Transport, and indeed it got better. Her father moved into Dodan Barracks as Head of State, from 1976 to 1979 after the assassination of General Murtala Muhammed, and President Yar’adua’s elder brother, the late General Shehu Musa Yar’adua became his deputy. She was unlikely, the scriptwriters must have reasoned to be in any danger under such a Presidency?

When we first knew her she was known as Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello, married to a certain Mr Akeem Bello who she had married in September 1999 before she had absorbed the full implications of her family’s returned to fame and power a few months earlier. In the period since her father last controlled the reigns of power in 1979, she had grown from childhood, had secured a first class education and had actually gotten to the pinnacle of educational attainment earning a Doctorate in 1994. Iyabo is not an intellectual light weight. She attended the best schools locally and internationally-Corona School, Victoria-Island, Capital Schools, Kaduna, University of Ibadan where she graduated in Veterinary Medicine in 1988, and Cornell University in New York where she earned her PhD in epidemiology in 1994.

If her father had died in Abacha’s prison or had come out of prison to a private life like General Gowon or Alhaji Shagari, we probably would not have known anything about Iyabo. She would probably have remained in the United States; she may have remained the quiet intellectual pursuing a distinguished research, medical or academic career; she may have remained married to Mr Bello; and she most probably would not have had anything to do with politics. When I observed Iyabo at some relatively close quarters as recently as early in 2003, she was still that quiet, even shy doctor. I thought she still had some of her baby fat on her even! But then power changeth all things!!!

Soon thereafter, she became Health Commissioner in Ogun State, and her rise to power, fame, (and now seeming notoriety) began. First, she displaced her brother, Gbenga as her father’s anointed child. Next it became clear that she was a major decision maker in Ogun State politics. She floated her “Iyaniwura” organisation and began to plan for the Senate. The previous occupant of that position, Senator Ibikunle Amosun who on his own was quite close to the Obasanjo household, was encouraged to seek the governorship, all designed it now appears clear, to create a vacancy for Iyabo to fill. In the end, Amosun was left in the lurch and Iyabo took his seat on a platter of gold. Or rather, not quite. Our friend, Lanre Tejuoso expressed interest in the same office. He was quickly discouraged, as a curious EFCC indictment surfaced against him. Lanre’s stay in the Senate race after that point became more muted as it became clear that nothing was going to stand in the way of the first daughter’s climb to the Senate. There are also those who claim that Mr Fola Adeola’s loss of his position as Transcorp CEO and National Pension Commission Chair had something to do with an interest in that same Senate seat.

Anyway come May 2007, Iyabo duly took her seat in the Senate. Since then she has known no rest! In April 2003, a reported armed robbery attack on Iyabo’s convoy had left her orderly, Corporal Dideon Duniya, and two children dead. The widow of the orderly continues to complain that all promises by Iyabo and her father to take care of the education of her four children remain unfulfilled. In divorce proceedings with Mr Bello, the court in the US had apparently granted custody of the only child of the short-lived marriage, Jimi, to her estranged husband. Apparently Iyabo would have none of that. She is reported to have illegally taken the child and fled to Nigeria. As a consequence, according to reports seen on the web, a district judge, Charles T.L Anderson has issued an arrest warrant against the Senator, mandating local, state and international law enforcement to commit Iyabo to custody if seen. The Judge specifically directed her commitment to the Chatham County Jail, Pittsboro, North Carolina if apprehended.

Prior to the April 2007 elections, the Abia State Government under Orji Kalu rushed through an indictment of Iyabo and other pro-Obasanjo politicians in an ‘Aba made’ version of the ridiculous EFCC indictment with which the Obasanjo government sought to keep out its enemies, principally Alhaji Atiku Abubakar from the 2007 general elections. If this was comic relief however, subsequent judicial encounters Iyabo has had since then have not quite been very funny. First it was the “Damilola Akinlawon” saga in which it appears Iyabo travelled to Austria to execute documents to cement a business relationship with M. Schneider GMBH posing as Damilola Akinlawon. That company subsequently won power contracts with the Nigerian government, which were revoked once Iyabo and other local partners fell out with the Austrians. Some believe that the removal of Nuhu Ribadu from the EFCC was related to his apparent reluctance to prosecute his benefactor’s daughter.

Iyabo’s current travails are however the most serious. She has been charged for corruptly receiving N10million from the Ministry of Health from proceeds of funds illegally diverted from the Ministry’s accounts. She has been declared wanted by the EFCC which says she is ‘at large’. Her colleagues in the Senate are looking for her, and the House of Representatives says she is embarrassing the entire legislature by becoming a fugitive from justice. Sooner than later, she will have to appear before the EFCC, who will be happy to slap handcuffs on her wrists! What is the lesson from all these? When you write your plans and schemes, remember that except the Lord builds, they labour in vain….

The Trial of Professor Grange

I regard the events going on in Abuja concerning the ongoing corruption trial of Professor Mrs Adenike Grange to be a tragedy of monumental proportions. When I saw the pictures of the distinguished professor of medicine at her arraignment in the morning papers on Wednesday 9th April (the arraignment had taken place the previous day), I wept! I do not know exactly why, but tears came to my eyes as I saw newspaper photographs of the 69-year old professor splashed on the front pages of all the major newspapers. Oh what a tragedy! For me this was actually a human story, more than anything else. At 69 years, I imagine, Professor Grange has grown up sons and daughters. I imagine she also has young grandchildren, some probably in their teens. She has students, many of them who were by now accomplished professionals in their own right.

I realised as I looked at those photos that she was indeed older than the age at which my late mum died in 2004 at 68 years of age. I could not imagine my mother facing such a tribulation in the twilight of her days. Those were the thoughts that came to my mind as those involuntary tears came to my eyes. Mrs Grange has a CV that every Nigerian should be proud of. She attended Methodist Girls High School, Yaba, Lagos, a school we were very familiar with as secondary school students at Igbobi College! Indeed my own wife is an alma mater of that institution. She graduated in medicine from Scotland in 1964, before I was born! She has worked in all the major health institutions in Lagos-Lagos Island Maternity, Creek Hospital, Massey Street Children’s Hospital and the Lagos University Teaching Hospital (LUTH).

She was appointed a Professor in 1995, thirteen years ago! Indeed she is the first female professor of Paediatrics at the College of Medicine, University of Lagos. She has been a Head of Department of Paediatrics and Dean of the School of Clinical Sciences at the Institution. She has served as Consultant to the Federal Ministry of Health, WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA and USAID. She is a very highly respected academic with over 50 scientific papers and serves on the Board of many international committees such as the Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunization and was president of the International Paediatrics Association. In short Mrs Grange is one of the products of this nation that we should showcase on the global stage. See how the corrupt Nigerian system consumes its best!

The Minister of State who was caught up in the same unfortunate matter is similarly distinguished. Architect Gabriel Aduku is an Officer of the Order of the Niger. He is a past President of the Nigerian Institute of Architects and a respected politician. One recent report indicated that the respected architect has embarked on fasting (the reporter thought it was a hunger strike) and prayer as he petitions Almighty God to let this cup pass over him. Many others may have come to the end of their civil service careers by virtue of the N300million funds in the coffers of the Ministry of Health which was supposed to be returned to the Central Bank of Nigeria on the instruction of the President, but which the ministry officials persuaded Mrs Grange they could successfully divert and share as Christmas bonus. I’m told in the civil service, such schemes are regarded simply as ‘welfare’. The list includes the Permanent Secretary-another Professor, Samuel Ogamdi, and Directors of Administration and Finance amongst other top officials of the Federal Health Ministry. Oh how corruption destroys our most capable citizens!
Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello has also been roped into the mess. The Obasanjo family has been going through very tense moments in the last few months. Gbenga their oldest son has become so disgruntled that he is prepared to disgrace his father, father-in-law and estranged wife. How could the former President have so alienated his son to such extent? Now Iyabo faces accusations on many fronts. The on-going probes of the ex-President’s activities in the power sector have made nonsense of any notions of transparency, anti-corruption and fiscal responsibility under the former regime. They also call into question the regime’s basic managerial competence. The FCT probe is already leading to revelations of multiple land allocations to members of the Obasanjo family. Now the Senator stands accused of receiving N10million out of the stolen funds. Even if she escapes from this present travail, it is fairly certain that Iyabo (and her father) will face many others, in the fullness of time. She will be lucky to escape unscathed!

What lessons will Nigerians learn from this episode? Will other political office holders simply conclude that the unfortunate professor was exposed because of her inexperience and naivety? Will the civil servants simply design more foolproof ways of siphoning such funds? Will any legislators who are inclined to partake of corrupt disbursements just concoct new mechanisms for such schemes that the EFCC will not know about? Or will political office holders, especially those ones who have some reputation to protect be careful to ensure that their hard-earned reputations are not destroyed on account of a few millions of Naira? Are those moneys worth the possible consequences if it all goes wrong as in this case? Is it worth the embarrassment to your family and children? Is it worth the risk of conviction or prison?

I know many will be scoffing and mocking at the Professor and her erstwhile junior minister, in their moment of tribulation. Are we laughing at her because she collected N10million, or because she was caught? How many of us can subject our private business practices to examination by EFCC and come out clean? He who thinks he stands should take heed, lest he falls! We should weep instead for a country in which citizens are exemplary-honest, brilliant and competent on the global stage, but get sucked into a system of incompetence, dishonesty, graft and mediocrity once they return into the Nigerian space. I only wish the EFCC and the Presidency will expose just six more cases like this within the next one year, irrespective of the personalities involved, and prosecute them, and believe it or not corruption will beat a hasty retreat from our public life.

Agbaje is Senior Consultant/CEO of Resources and Trust Company (RTC), a Strategy, Business Advisory and Consultancy Services Firm. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy arm of RTC.