Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Yar'adua's Renaissance Part 2

So it appears that since his return from Saudi Arabia, President Yar’adua is revving up his administration’s engines; he has asked his flight engineer (some will say control tower) out of the craft and selected a new one, he is engaging the gears and is now seeking to re-assemble a new flight crew. But he still has to define the destination. And the definition of the destination must also influence the choice of a crew. In simple terms, while it appears that the regime is looking more decisive, it is not yet clear in what direction that decisiveness proposes to go. The regime’s policy direction is yet to be fully clarified and in the absence of that clarification, it is not clear what type of people the regime would be looking for in its proposed cabinet re-shuffle.

One worrying indicator was the Channels Television closure which suggested a possible intent towards a more authoritarian inclination. It is clear like most commentators have noted that Channels TV made a professional error in not cross-checking the report that the president may resign before airing it. In spite of this error however, there was more than enough mitigation in the whole circumstances. The station quoted a third-party international news agency which had been similarly deceived by whoever sent those hoax reports. They immediately reported the rebuttal and apologised rather than stick to a wrong position. Clearly the government’s action was an over-reaction and reflects probably a desire to send a message of a tougher posture in relation to the media. Someone in government or the security agencies is clearly uncomfortable with the media’s open discussion of matters they would prefer to be handled behind closed doors. In any event, the resort to arbitary actions rather than an adherence to the rule of law, has damaged the regime’s democratic credentials.

More importantly, the Channels affair reminds us that there are some constituencies who are interested in formenting national disorder and who will do anything to achieve their desires. The real issue is, who were the people who sent the hoax e-mails in the name of the News Agency of Nigeria, and what was their objective? And why do the PDP national executives continue to make reckless allegations of treason in response to every press statement issued by opposition parties? My suspicion is that all we are seeing (including the scape-goating of Channels) are symptoms reflective of deeper tensions over more fundamental concerns relating to political power and succession scenarios.

But back to the Yar’adua regime and the prospects for policy invigoration. The most important role of a leader is to provide a vision and direction, and them to assemble a team that he can influence, manage, motivate, and lead to actualise that vision. And then the leader must communicate the vision and secure support of the people for the vision. And the leader must be bold, courageous and decisive in removing obstacles and facing challenges in the path. And the vision, direction and policies charted by the leader must be the right one. It is perfectly possible (as Hitler for instance demonstrated) for a leader to lead a whole nation on a path that is not quite right.

The 7-Point Agenda provides a basis for identifying areas of government priorities. But it does not define what is to be done with any of the matters contained in the agenda. Like the power sector for instance has demonstrated, a policy that understands the issues in the sector and that provides a road map for dealing with those issues is indispensable. The NEEDS document was an example of a detailed economic strategy document that analysed the issues, defined objectives, solutions and policies, provided an action plan and identified targets and deliverables. Underlying any vision or strategy is a philosophy-some coherent beliefs and first principles that provide a frame of reference for the details in the plan. So what is the regime’s philosophy of governance?

Does the regime believe in a private-sector driven economy? Does the regime want to see an economy operating on free enterprise principles but with strong regulation and an effective competition and anti-trust regime? What are its views about education, health and social services? What is President Yar’adua’s position on some of the major political and constitutional issues confronting Nigeria-devolution of power, fiscal federalism, Niger-Delta and other matters relating to the structure of our federal system? What does the President really think about corruption and economic crimes? What kind of nation does President Yar’adua want to create? What national identity does he hope to forge out of Nigeria’s many ethnic groups and peoples, if any? What is the regime’s attitude to the world that defines its thinking on foreign, defence and security policy? Government and leadership cannot operate in a philosophical vacuum and where there is no clarity about an entity’s philosophical orientation, something emerges to fill the space. Nature as they say abhors a vacuum!

The point of this all-the regime must urgently define its philosophy, vision and direction, and policy orientation and select ministers who understand and can implement actions to realise that vision.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Yar'adua's Renaissance?

It is amazing how the prognosis has shifted concerning the Yar’adua Presidency in just one week! When it was first reported that President Yar’adua had undertaken a trip to Saudi Arabia for the lesser hajj, just after replacing the service chiefs, I immediately started asking myself questions, even before the escalated rumours about his health began to circulate. Why did he replace the service chiefs? Was there more to the decision? Wasn’t he supposed to be quite close to General Azazi? Why did he feel compelled to fire him as defence chief? And of course I wondered whether it was just lesser hajj, or whether a trip to some Saudi hospital was not on the cards.

So I was not terribly surprised when I saw an on-line report in Sahara Reporters suggesting that our president was really in hospital. And then the president went quiet…and quiet… and still quiet, while Nigerians and the whole world wondered what was going on. In the information vacuum, the rumour mill and “scenario planning” began to swirl. I was a guest on CNBC Africa last Monday precisely to discuss those matters and of course this column last week began to examine leadership succession scenarios. And of course, it does appear that most of the “succession planning” was happening right inside the presidency, with the president’s own cabinet and government secretary touted to be the planner-in-chief!

When it was reported that the president had essentially (as one newspaper put it) sneaked into the country at 3am, some speculated not unreasonably that perhaps our dear leader had been on a wheelchair or stretcher, or at least he was not in a state to be seen by the public. Well we would never really know. By the time it was reported that the president would be at work last Monday I was clear in my mind that no such thing was likely to happen. I dismissed it as another doubtful statement that would prolong the uncertainty and lack of clarity about the true state of things concerning Yar’adua’s condition. And then the blitz. That morning, Yar’adua truly turned up at work and swore in the new service chiefs. And then fired Babagana Kingibe!

There was one part of me that had always wondered whether after Kingibe completed the accumulation of government power in the SGF’s office, someone else was not going to inherit the immense powers so amassed. And so it now turns out. Like I warned in this column last week, sometimes the best schemes blow up in the face of the schemer! And then the presidency announced a new government structure. By and large, I support the new structure, especially the creation of a ministry on Niger-Delta, which I hope will accelerate infrastructural development and youth empowerment in the region. And of course also provide badly-needed political oversight for the NDDC.

I suspect the “unbundling” of the other ministries including power, police affairs, works, aviation, water resources, environment etc, was also probably justified. However I make the point that the underlying logic for the previous mergers remain valid-there is need for policy integration at the ministerial level in those ministries, and a new mechanism will have to be found to achieve that integration. For example, the minister of power needs coordination with the petroleum affairs ministry, particularly the gas segment of it, and the same can be said of all the others. I concede however that given the state of the Nigerian bureaucracy, the merged ministries may have become too unwieldy to move at the required speed.

And then the vice-president has inaugurated the Niger-Delta technical committee, and there appears to be finally some hope of the type of multi-track engagement-infrastructural investment, youth empowerment, dialogue and law enforcement that hopefully may make a difference in the troubled region. At the very least, this multi-track approach should reduce civil support for the militants and criminals who have now taken over in the Delta. Now the whole buzz is about an impending cabinet reshuffle. It appears Yar’adua has finally had enough of cabinet largely imposed on him by the governors and party chieftains and now seeks to create his own team that may share the new found sense of urgency.

The President can move quickly to reconstitute the cabinet, ensure prompt approval of his nominees for the Infrastructure Concessioning and Regulatory Commission (ICRC) and Fiscal Responsibility Commission, constitute the National Procurement Commission and then commence a rapid implementation of his government’s agenda. He can revert to a faith in private sector mechanisms particularly in respect of the power sector, ensure quick execution of his oil sector reforms and remove any impressions about a reducing commitment to anti-corruption. a lot can be done in just under three years, or whenever, and the president appears to have made up his mind to shake things up a bit. Now that Yar’adua appears to be finding his rhythm, let’s hope he will sustain the pace. opeyemiagbaje.blogspot.com

Agbaje is CEO of Resources and Trust Company Ltd, a strategy, consultancy and business advisory firm. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy division of the co

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Nigerian and American Scenarios Part 2

What does this mean for Nigeria? Is the Obama phenomenon possible in Nigeria? If Barack had been born in Nigeria, would the system have given him the opportunity to project himself to his present position? Would he have been able to retain his principles while doing so? If Obama’s father had taken him back to Kenya, where would he be today? A frustrated law professor in University of Nairobi? An exiled dissident? A labour leader, social activist or civil society activist? A journalist or newspaper columnist crying like a lone voice in the wilderness? A disgruntled opposition leader? A depressed poet or intellectual who takes solace in alcohol and drugs? Or perhaps unable to beat them, might he have joined in corruption, election rigging, occultism, violence and maladministration forgoing previous lofty ideals? Nigeria and Africa must rise to the real lesson of the Obama revolution and begin to create a new, truly democratic society that gives opportunity through education and other social infrastructure to all their citizens, and allows the best of our society, and not the most venal, sycophantic, base and unprincipled to rise to positions of leadership.

Which brings me to the current outlook for Nigeria. If you were a scenario thinker, what scenarios would you be thinking about currently? Are they hopeful or troubling scenarios? First you would have to be projecting an end-game in the Niger-Delta. I have written recently (“The Trouble in the Niger-Delta”-August 13) about the situation in the region and stated my views about the way out. But the present state of things offers little hope. It looks increasingly like the Nigerian state is stumbling into disaster in the region. Possibilities include a total breakdown of law and order, full scale outbreak of military hostilities, or diminished or lost sovereignty. I suspect that one day, the Nigerian state will offer the region 75 per cent derivation and it may be too late.

The worst case “Sharia” scenario may appear to have receded somewhat, but perhaps appearances may be deceptive. It still seems to me that left to millions of people up north, having being denied education and prosperity; they will rather live in a society governed in line with full scale application of Islamic law as they increasingly equate their leaders’ inability to provide them a worthwhile existence with non-adherence to Allah’s injunctions. And today, the only context in which the northern urban poor have a voice is when they speak in the name of God. The governors in the region may have attempted to blunt and deflect this desire with half-hearted (what Obasanjo called “Political Sharia”) Sharia but may be the chicken will come home to roost someday. You either educate the children in the North, reduce poverty and improve the quality of life in the region or we will have to deal with some revolutionary upheaval tainted with religion someday.

More immediate scenarios revolve around the presidency. What will the Supreme Court say about the 2007 elections when it finally considers the petitions filed by Atiku Abubakar and Muhammadu Buhari? If the Court nullifies the election, Nigeria will be walking in uncharted waters as the Senate President may be called upon to conduct a fresh election. That would place Brigadier-General David Mark in Aso Rock at least for a while. David Mark was an insider in the shuffling, scheming and plotting of military politics that we saw from 1983 to 1999 spanning the Buhari, Babangida and Abacha regimes. And he emerged from it all a consummate survivor who has been a power broker in the Senate since the return to democracy. That would also give Buhari, Atiku, Babangida and perhaps others such as Babagana Kingibe, Olusola (or even Bukola) Saraki or Peter Odili an opportunity to mount a now or never challenge for the Presidency. In a context in which there is no legitimate regime-in-power such a scenario may have several levers of in-built instability.

What of issues of presidential succession if the office becomes vacant by other means? The Hausa-Fulani North has waited impatiently for Obasanjo’s eight years to “have our power back”. Will they have faith in the constitutionally prescribed mode of succession in which a Southern vice-president ascends to the Presidency? Would some seek to short-circuit the constitution and thus create a new “June 12” scenario? Would the Ijaws and the entire Niger-Delta not have a strengthened argument for “resource control” or even worse if the constitution is disregarded in such cavalier manner? What is the strategic import of the recent changes in the leadership of the Armed Forces? Do they have any bearing with these issues and possibilities? What of the abolishment of the office of Chief of Staff and cleaning up of the Aso Rock bureaucracy? Is there a strategic positioning of forces going on? Why? Why is the PDP’s own publicity secretary flying a kite about treason and threats against the state? On whose behalf is he testing which waters?

The import of these questions is that there are distinctly troubling possibilities if like me you enjoy projecting into the future. While America is preparing to elect as president a man whose father was a Kenyan student, we may actually be preparing to take a big step backwards, and endanger the gains we have recorded since 1999. As I was writing this, the Republicans who were praying for rain to disturb Obama’s open air speech are having to re-jig their own convention as Hurricane Gustav threatens Loiusiana reminding us to be careful what we pray or scheme for as our schemes sometimes blow up in our faces. God help Nigeria.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Nigerian and American Scenarios Part 1

I was inclined to re-focus on Nigeria this week. On the other hand, I have been watching the historic Democratic National Convention (DNC) and I thought it would be useful sharing my thoughts on that exercise with our readers. So necessity, as they say became the mother of invention. This week we will review the DNC, and see what lessons the Nigerian nation can learn from that remarkable democratic exercise. And we will do this against the background of possible short and medium term Nigerian scenarios.

The democrats put up a real show in Denver, Colorado last week. I stayed up between 1 and 4am (Nigerian time) on each of the convention days. I wanted to carefully notice all the nuances of the process that would determine whether Barack Obama would succeed in seizing the opportunity of the convention to fully reveal himself to the American people. At the end of the week, I believe he succeeded beyond measure, and victory in November is now a distinct possibility. Senator Ted Kennedy’s mere appearance on convention day one was itself a major boost to democratic spirits. The old Senator is ill and has had brain surgery, yet he flew to Denver and gave a powerful speech to the democratic partisans gathered. But the highlight of the night was Michelle Obama.

Her task was to introduce herself to the American people, persuade them she was first lady material and tell the story of herself and Barack such that America would trust them with power. She did excellently. I was impressed by her intellect, grace and grit, and at the end of the day, her story and that of her husband and two daughters was one all Americans of all races and backgrounds could identify with. Day 2 was Hillary Clinton show, and she seized the moment. Hillary in my view gave the best speech of her life-passionate, articulate, bold and strategic. She just about eliminated any Republican hopes of reaping from a divided Democratic house, and positioned herself as the major power broker in the Democratic Party no matter what happens in this election. This lady is sure going to be around!

Day 3 saw the return of the master-Bill Clinton! He defined the issues in this race very clearly-a republican party that had squandered both economic and security gains of the previous democratic regime, and whose ideas were just wrong, and endorsed Barack Obama as ready to rule. The Clintonite passion, empathy and depth of communication skills was brought to bear as Clinton reminded Americans that Republicans had questioned his “foreign policy credentials” before he was elected in 1992 just as they were doing with Obama now and basically tore to shreds the carefully designed republican attack platform to rapturous applause. Joe Biden also gave an enthusiastic speech attacking John McCain as only he had the credibility to do.

On the final convention night, over 80,000 enthusiasts were packed in the stadium and hundreds or thousands more were on queues outside trying to get in. The rest of America and millions elsewhere were watching on television sets all over the world-over 40 million Americans according to the New York Times, more than watched the Olympic opening ceremony or Academy awards this year. Barack Obama was ready. I’m convinced he completed the demolition of the case the republicans had prepared against him, which Bill and Hillary Clinton (and that night Al Gore who had reminded Americans that President Abraham Lincoln’s cumulative experience before his election to the US Presidency was just about equivalent to Obama’s) had already severely damaged.

He outlined a clear economic and energy plan, with details; he attacked McCain’s touted judgment on foreign policy outlining instances-the Iraq war, Afghanistan, timeline for troop withdrawal from Iraq etc in which he was right and McCain wrong, and challenged him to a debate precisely on that turf; he destroyed republican attempts to portray him as merely a celebrity leaning on his work as a social and community activist and brought the whole stadium to tears. There was no African-American in that stadium who was not teary-eyed. I can confirm that I was happily crying along in my family lounge. The co-incidence of that day with the 45th anniversary of the “I have a dream” speech of Martin Luther King was too pungent to be missed. Indeed America has come a long way, and no matter what happens in November, America has proven that indeed it is the land of the possible. I look forward to a Barack Obama presidency.