Has the “system” recognised that it was walking dangerously close to the precipice? Is the pull-back from the brink a decisive change in strategy by our ruling class, or is what we have seen just a temporary tactical reprieve? Will we like drunken sailors lunge once again towards self-destruction? I do not regard the current “acting” presidency of Goodluck Jonathan as the final chapter in our crisis over presidential health and succession. First of all, any “acting” state is by definition temporary-an interim arrangement while an enduring solution is investigated and implemented. Secondly there are substantive political considerations which suggest a need to resolve the larger question of whether Yar’adua is able to continue to function in the Presidency.
Our constitution envisages a presidency that includes a President and a Vice. In this acting scenario, there is only Goodluck Jonathan. The current situation holds its own dangers as the entirety of the political, regional and religious constituencies which Yar’adua represents may begin to feel wholly schemed out of the Presidency. It is thus in the interest of these constituencies to quickly resolve the issue, if as it appears clear now, Yar’adua is unlikely to return to power. The Hausa-Fulani political leadership thus has a clear interest in persuading Yar’adua to resign from office so that a Vice-President can be appointed to complete the Presidency. If he (or in effect the first lady) refuses to furnish the required letter of resignation, I imagine it would be imperative that the Executive Council of the Federation take action in conjunction with the National Assembly to declare him permanently incapacitated or as a last resort, the National Assembly should commence impeachment proceedings.
Indeed I recall that as we awaited the judgment of the Supreme Court over the electoral petitions of Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar, my personal analysis made it very clear to me that it was in the interest of the North to have that election nullified and a new one (in which relatively healthier Northern candidates could re-contest) conducted. In the event, the Supreme Court decided otherwise. I recall proclaiming then to a friend, prophetically now it seems, that the Supreme Court judgment merely removed the last obstacle to a Goodluck Jonathan Presidency! Another reason to find a permanent constitutional solution to the current situation is the tenuous legal basis for the resolutions of the National Assembly which declared Jonathan as Acting President. I argued last week that the actions of the Turai clique (which held on to power for 78 days in defiance of the constitution) and the National Assembly response (which proclaimed Jonathan acting President on the basis of the doctrine of necessity and his BBC interview), amounted to a coup and counter-coup respectively; even though the National Assembly actions are more legitimate having been effected by elected representatives of the citizens in order to restore constitutional rule.
In the circumstances, we may expect agents of the disaffected Turai clique to resort to the courts to test the legality of Jonathan’s Acting Presidency. If, as is possible, a federal high court in any part of Nigeria obliges then with a declaration that the National Assembly resolutions were unconstitutional, we would be right back to square one! The events in Niger Republic right next door to Nigeria, remind us once again of the dangerous possibilities when a political class acts in defiance of the will of the people and overriding national interest. Unfortunately we have a political leadership today many of whom are so lacking in a strategic appreciation of the political, social, economic, military and international dynamics of Nigerian history and evolution that they endanger the state itself. Imagine our nation being recklessly manipulated by a house wife, some second-rate provincial politicians and middle-level protocol and security officers who obviously have a very shallow understanding of power and its complexities and dangers in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious state like Nigeria! Like children playing with explosives, they do not understand the risk factors and minefields; all they see is a huge commercial opportunity!!!
Remember also that the issue of Yar’adua’s health and incapacitation has merely added another layer of complication to an electoral cycle which already contained elevated political risks. How would the 2011 elections be conducted? Will the elections be free and fair? Who would be the candidate of the ruling PDP? How will the opposition parties contest the elections? Will the opposition manage to build a credible opposition platform? Can the nation accept another rigged election in 2011, after the very flawed polls of 2003 and 2007? Will the conduct of governance and policy be re-invigorated to reduce public disaffection before the general elections? How will the international community react in the event of a 2011 election that is generally believed to lack credibility? Will the Niger-Delta crisis be resolved before the elections? What of concerns about religious conflict in Northern Nigeria?
All these unresolved issues mean there may still be challenges along the path to 2011 even if the Yar’adua obstacle is removed. The “system” still has some serious thinking to do!
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Back from the Brink?
Nigeria has this dangerous habit of perpetually getting close to the edge of the precipice before stepping or being dragged back. Our political leaders have elevated brinkmanship to an art form, and sometimes their stunts blow up in all our faces. In the first republic, the imposition of the Akintola Premiership on the West against the ruling of the Privy Council in England and against the will of the majority of his Action Group members; the subsequent declaration of state of emergency in that region; the controversy over the organisation of the 1964 Census; the dissolution of the NPC/NCNC federal coalition; attempts to suppress the Tiv and other minority elements in Northern Nigeria; and the blatant rigging of the 1964 federal elections and 1965 Western region voting eventually resulted in a disastrous civil war.
The dribbles of the clever General Ibrahim Babangida over the return to civil rule programme between 1989 and 1993 (and Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) membership) eventually resulted in the Orkar Coup of April 1990 and later Abacha’s ascension to power. Abacha himself was an expert at brinkmanship. He seemed to get his high from danger and confrontation and soon took Nigeria very close to a second civil war, or perhaps an implosion of the country itself. Even President Obasanjo, perhaps the most senior member of a clique which may be regarded as self-appointed guarantors of Nigeria national unity (along with Generals T.Y Danjuma, Abdulsalam Abubakar, IBB and Aliyu Gusau-and others on the periphery) also practiced the art with his “third term” bid and the conduct of the 2007 general elections.
Now the latest people to take us close to the brink is a small clique of Turai Yar’adua, Tanimu Yakubu, Sayyadi Abba Ruma and others around the President. Probably the narrowest power clique to attempt a monopoly over power in Nigeria’s history, the group mostly hails from Katsina. They are essentially defined by personal ties to President Umaru Yar’adua (UMY)-his wife, his ex-appointees while he was Katsina State Governor who have followed him into the federal government, his personal security aides and child hood friends and his business man friend. Their power base derives completely from their dependency on the president-on their own they do not have any political legitimacy, and in a sense, it is this knowledge that without presidential cover they are politically naked that explains their determination to preserve UMY’s regime beyond its medical expiry date!
In constitutional terms, the rule by this clique beyond a point at which it was clear that UMY was in control of his faculties amounted to a coup-an unconstitutional take-over of power by persons, and in a manner not envisaged by the constitution. The constitution does not recognise a first lady, any minister or other appointee of a president and certainly not his personal security aides and childhood friends as legitimate inheritors of political power in the event of the absence, indisposition, medical leave or incapacitation of a president. In this understanding, what the Senate and House of Representatives then did by their actions of last week, to the extent that it also did not accord strictly with the terms of the 1999 Constitution may also be interpreted as a counter-coup! Of the two coups, the one by the Turai Clique and the National Assembly one, it is clear which ought to enjoy better legitimacy!!!
At least the actions of the National Assembly restore constitutional rule in Nigeria after 78 days of the Turai Coup. Clearly the interpretation of the purported interview on BBC by a voice resembling Yar’adua as amounting to a transmission of a letter under the terms of Section 145 of the Constitution was an innovative stretch designed to outwit the Turai Clique and beat them at their game. The invocation of the doctrine of “necessity” rather than the explicit terms of the constitution confirms the stretch of the intendment of the framers of the 1999 constitution. But then, as I said earlier, that action of the National Assembly may be supported as helping to restore constitutional rule as others constitutionally entitled to act-the Executive Council of the Federation (under section 144) and the President (under Section 145) had wilfully refused to do so. The only other option open to the National Assembly-impeachment (under Section 143) may have been politically unfeasible. While I support the insistence of civil society elements on full observance of the constitution, they must do nothing that puts them unknowingly in support of the Turai Coup.
I regarded the tensions we were enduring since November 23 2009 as perhaps a move towards self-destruction by Nigeria’s corrupt ruling class. It may have been interesting as I wrote in a recent article to watch the “system” prepare its own wake-keeping. Perhaps that is why everyone-Obasanjo, Shagari, Shonekan, Bola Tinubu, media owners and editors, Justice Kutigi (who a few weeks earlier had become a de facto accomplice in the Turai Coup) and everyone else sought to exculpate themselves from the dangerous direction the country was drifting towards. Perhaps the “system” has stepped back from the brink? Perhaps not?
The dribbles of the clever General Ibrahim Babangida over the return to civil rule programme between 1989 and 1993 (and Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) membership) eventually resulted in the Orkar Coup of April 1990 and later Abacha’s ascension to power. Abacha himself was an expert at brinkmanship. He seemed to get his high from danger and confrontation and soon took Nigeria very close to a second civil war, or perhaps an implosion of the country itself. Even President Obasanjo, perhaps the most senior member of a clique which may be regarded as self-appointed guarantors of Nigeria national unity (along with Generals T.Y Danjuma, Abdulsalam Abubakar, IBB and Aliyu Gusau-and others on the periphery) also practiced the art with his “third term” bid and the conduct of the 2007 general elections.
Now the latest people to take us close to the brink is a small clique of Turai Yar’adua, Tanimu Yakubu, Sayyadi Abba Ruma and others around the President. Probably the narrowest power clique to attempt a monopoly over power in Nigeria’s history, the group mostly hails from Katsina. They are essentially defined by personal ties to President Umaru Yar’adua (UMY)-his wife, his ex-appointees while he was Katsina State Governor who have followed him into the federal government, his personal security aides and child hood friends and his business man friend. Their power base derives completely from their dependency on the president-on their own they do not have any political legitimacy, and in a sense, it is this knowledge that without presidential cover they are politically naked that explains their determination to preserve UMY’s regime beyond its medical expiry date!
In constitutional terms, the rule by this clique beyond a point at which it was clear that UMY was in control of his faculties amounted to a coup-an unconstitutional take-over of power by persons, and in a manner not envisaged by the constitution. The constitution does not recognise a first lady, any minister or other appointee of a president and certainly not his personal security aides and childhood friends as legitimate inheritors of political power in the event of the absence, indisposition, medical leave or incapacitation of a president. In this understanding, what the Senate and House of Representatives then did by their actions of last week, to the extent that it also did not accord strictly with the terms of the 1999 Constitution may also be interpreted as a counter-coup! Of the two coups, the one by the Turai Clique and the National Assembly one, it is clear which ought to enjoy better legitimacy!!!
At least the actions of the National Assembly restore constitutional rule in Nigeria after 78 days of the Turai Coup. Clearly the interpretation of the purported interview on BBC by a voice resembling Yar’adua as amounting to a transmission of a letter under the terms of Section 145 of the Constitution was an innovative stretch designed to outwit the Turai Clique and beat them at their game. The invocation of the doctrine of “necessity” rather than the explicit terms of the constitution confirms the stretch of the intendment of the framers of the 1999 constitution. But then, as I said earlier, that action of the National Assembly may be supported as helping to restore constitutional rule as others constitutionally entitled to act-the Executive Council of the Federation (under section 144) and the President (under Section 145) had wilfully refused to do so. The only other option open to the National Assembly-impeachment (under Section 143) may have been politically unfeasible. While I support the insistence of civil society elements on full observance of the constitution, they must do nothing that puts them unknowingly in support of the Turai Coup.
I regarded the tensions we were enduring since November 23 2009 as perhaps a move towards self-destruction by Nigeria’s corrupt ruling class. It may have been interesting as I wrote in a recent article to watch the “system” prepare its own wake-keeping. Perhaps that is why everyone-Obasanjo, Shagari, Shonekan, Bola Tinubu, media owners and editors, Justice Kutigi (who a few weeks earlier had become a de facto accomplice in the Turai Coup) and everyone else sought to exculpate themselves from the dangerous direction the country was drifting towards. Perhaps the “system” has stepped back from the brink? Perhaps not?
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Absurdity in Lagos
What is wrong with Nigeria? Are our people allergic to progress and development? Do we actually abhor goodness and anything with any trace of the positive? Why do we struggle so hard to subvert, abort or destroy any person, group or movement that shows any signs of departing from the retrogressive norms that we have become so accustomed? Are we actually cursed?
When we had Chief Awolowo, they threw him into jail, and then waited until he was safely in the grave before declaring him “the best president Nigeria never had”. As a secondary school student, I recall watching General Obasanjo in a national television interview just before the 1979 elections actually telling Nigerian voters that they did not have to vote for the best candidate! When Murtala Muhammed showed signs that he was breaking with a developing pattern of drift and corruption, determined to move Nigeria down a more radical and progressive path, we quickly shot him dead after only six months! Very recently we saw how Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was first removed from the finance ministry, and then from headship of the economic team in 2006 forcing the lady to bow out honourably before she was disgraced from office. That was her reward for getting Nigeria the landmark debt forgiveness deal from our creditors!
The latest example of the Nigerian abhorrence for progress is the strenuous efforts being made to rubbish the highly-acclaimed Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN). While the Governor was receiving an international award from the Martin Luther King Foundation in the US for outstanding leadership, some adversaries were putting finishing touches to a carefully scripted effort to impugn his reputation. It is increasingly difficult to dispel the view that powerful forces probably within the governor’s own Action Congress party are determined at the very least, to tarnish his reputation, possibly remove him from office through impeachment or forced resignation, and as a strategic objective ensure he does not run for a second term in 2011. If this absurd strategising is true, it will amount to a disrespect and disregard for the citizens and voters in Lagos!
We have observed the absurdity of a Speaker of the House of Assembly from the same party acting as if he was in effect leader of opposition to the Governor! While the media, citizens, professionals, and even opposition politicians acknowledge the Governor’s excellent performance, the speaker is constantly sniping at the governor, and recently complained about “praise singers” who were celebrating BRF’s administration. According to the speaker, Fashola is not the only performing governor as others were also doing well. Apparently the AC Speaker in Lagos is prepared to advertise Governors elected on the platform of opposing parties as a counterpoise to that of his own fellow party member? Absurd politics, I dare say!
Last week some people calling themselves “The True Face of Lagos” published allegations of financial impropriety against Fashola. Almost immediately, the House set up a committee to probe the allegations. Some newspaper reports suggest that the committee is the first stage of impeachment proceedings against Fashola! Now I do not support corruption and no allegations of corruption should be ignored. And I am sure Fashola and his administration is perfectly capable of defending itself against the specific allegations. But isn’t it incongruous that Fashola, by all standards the best-performing governor since the return to civil rule in 1999 is the only governor facing a trial for corruption by his state assembly? Of course we know it is all politics! The Speaker implies in his comments that the citizens and voters in Lagos do not matter-only members of the party do. That is why he constantly complains about people who are not members of their party who are praising the governor, as if only party members are entitled to comment about governance. May be he thinks the citizens exist only to vote and pay taxes so that the party members can live a worthy existence, and when we appreciate a governor who is making life better for Lagos residents, we are stepping beyond our bounds. Quite Absurd!!!
Fears that there is indeed some disaffection between the Governor and his predecessor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu have been fuelled by the adverts placed by Dele Alake, Tinubu’s former Commissioner for Information and Strategy. Why was it necessary two and a half years after Tinubu left office to re-advertise his achievements while in office? And to do so on so many pages, in so many newspapers? What was the point? Some of us fear the AC in Lagos State may be preparing for a classic “unforced error” which should gladden the hearts of the PDP as we draw closer to 2011! Lagos voters may decide as all this unfolds that it is all politics; they don’t care about us; it is all about themselves, and their interests. And in politics, as in life, pride comes before a fall! That is how the AD/AC lost Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo and Osun. They got arrogant and over-confident and took the people and voters for granted, such that when the PDP stole their coveted offices, our people left them to fight for themselves. Now Lagos?
We pray that good sense will prevail and the AC in Lagos will reconcile themselves for the greater battle ahead in 2011 rather than dissipate the goodwill of the people of Lagos State.
When we had Chief Awolowo, they threw him into jail, and then waited until he was safely in the grave before declaring him “the best president Nigeria never had”. As a secondary school student, I recall watching General Obasanjo in a national television interview just before the 1979 elections actually telling Nigerian voters that they did not have to vote for the best candidate! When Murtala Muhammed showed signs that he was breaking with a developing pattern of drift and corruption, determined to move Nigeria down a more radical and progressive path, we quickly shot him dead after only six months! Very recently we saw how Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was first removed from the finance ministry, and then from headship of the economic team in 2006 forcing the lady to bow out honourably before she was disgraced from office. That was her reward for getting Nigeria the landmark debt forgiveness deal from our creditors!
The latest example of the Nigerian abhorrence for progress is the strenuous efforts being made to rubbish the highly-acclaimed Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN). While the Governor was receiving an international award from the Martin Luther King Foundation in the US for outstanding leadership, some adversaries were putting finishing touches to a carefully scripted effort to impugn his reputation. It is increasingly difficult to dispel the view that powerful forces probably within the governor’s own Action Congress party are determined at the very least, to tarnish his reputation, possibly remove him from office through impeachment or forced resignation, and as a strategic objective ensure he does not run for a second term in 2011. If this absurd strategising is true, it will amount to a disrespect and disregard for the citizens and voters in Lagos!
We have observed the absurdity of a Speaker of the House of Assembly from the same party acting as if he was in effect leader of opposition to the Governor! While the media, citizens, professionals, and even opposition politicians acknowledge the Governor’s excellent performance, the speaker is constantly sniping at the governor, and recently complained about “praise singers” who were celebrating BRF’s administration. According to the speaker, Fashola is not the only performing governor as others were also doing well. Apparently the AC Speaker in Lagos is prepared to advertise Governors elected on the platform of opposing parties as a counterpoise to that of his own fellow party member? Absurd politics, I dare say!
Last week some people calling themselves “The True Face of Lagos” published allegations of financial impropriety against Fashola. Almost immediately, the House set up a committee to probe the allegations. Some newspaper reports suggest that the committee is the first stage of impeachment proceedings against Fashola! Now I do not support corruption and no allegations of corruption should be ignored. And I am sure Fashola and his administration is perfectly capable of defending itself against the specific allegations. But isn’t it incongruous that Fashola, by all standards the best-performing governor since the return to civil rule in 1999 is the only governor facing a trial for corruption by his state assembly? Of course we know it is all politics! The Speaker implies in his comments that the citizens and voters in Lagos do not matter-only members of the party do. That is why he constantly complains about people who are not members of their party who are praising the governor, as if only party members are entitled to comment about governance. May be he thinks the citizens exist only to vote and pay taxes so that the party members can live a worthy existence, and when we appreciate a governor who is making life better for Lagos residents, we are stepping beyond our bounds. Quite Absurd!!!
Fears that there is indeed some disaffection between the Governor and his predecessor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu have been fuelled by the adverts placed by Dele Alake, Tinubu’s former Commissioner for Information and Strategy. Why was it necessary two and a half years after Tinubu left office to re-advertise his achievements while in office? And to do so on so many pages, in so many newspapers? What was the point? Some of us fear the AC in Lagos State may be preparing for a classic “unforced error” which should gladden the hearts of the PDP as we draw closer to 2011! Lagos voters may decide as all this unfolds that it is all politics; they don’t care about us; it is all about themselves, and their interests. And in politics, as in life, pride comes before a fall! That is how the AD/AC lost Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo and Osun. They got arrogant and over-confident and took the people and voters for granted, such that when the PDP stole their coveted offices, our people left them to fight for themselves. Now Lagos?
We pray that good sense will prevail and the AC in Lagos will reconcile themselves for the greater battle ahead in 2011 rather than dissipate the goodwill of the people of Lagos State.
Interesting Times
Why are the cornerstones of the present system beginning to reposition themselves on the side of the people of Nigeria? Do they sense that change is around the corner? A few months ago, General David Mark in effect told off the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and those of us who he obviously regards as unpatriotic and disgruntled Nigerians who continue to insist that things were not right with Nigeria. According to the retired officer, Nigeria was doing very well and things were going in the right direction. I am not so sure Senator Mark has not recently modified his position.
Certainly our friend, Ojo Maduekwe has! I did not watch his BBC interview but those who did, appear to have been thoroughly unhappy after the episode. From newspaper reports, it appears that Maduekwe was not his usual articulate self and appears to have had some difficulty rationalising and justifying the present state of affairs in our country. The Guardian (Friday, January 22, 2009) reports Ojo as admitting that Nigeria is passing through tough times and quoted him thus “ the leadership will no longer act in denial…We must accept that all is not well with us and that we missed opportunities to turn the corners”. Interesting times! So the leadership were in denial? After the Christmas day Detroit terror incident involving Umar Farouk Abdul Muttalab, we proclaimed that terrorism is not in our character. Less than thirty days later, over thirty people have died in religious violence in Bauchi and now perhaps up to a thousand in Jos. Interesting!
When Professor Wole Soyinka, Pastor Tunde Bakare and others in the “Save Nigeria Group” organised their Abuja rally, our ruling class as usual brimming with false and unfounded confidence would typically have ignored them. Spokespersons of the system would have derided them as unpatriotic elements and perpetual agitators who did not command the support of the people. But guess what, the Speaker of the House of Representatives attempted to actually address the rally. And then the establishment rallies its own assemblage of “currently displaced ex-politicians” led by Anyim Pius Anyim and gets them to address the Senate President and Federal Speaker. Yet this group, even while seeking to discredit protest as a means of ending the present crisis, made essentially the same points the protesting group were making.
The biggest sign yet that something is about to give is General Olusegun Obasanjo’s call on the President he essentially forced on Nigerians, Umaru Yar’adua to toe the path of honour and resign from office due to his health challenges. Does Obasanjo know something we don’t know? Or why do you think Obasanjo, who would otherwise have insisted “I dey Kampe” in response to any criticisms by those he would have dismissed as ignorant Nigerians, is now bothering to extricate himself from the possible backlash from the present contrived crisis and explaining himself? Even our Senators and Representatives are now hedging their bets, as reportedly many of them are getting worried that the present drift is dangerous and unsustainable.
The usually shadowy and silent Yarádua Clique is also explaining itself to Nigerians through “anonymous” media briefings even though their narrative is strange. Banking on Obasanjo’s unpopularity, they claim that the reason they don’t want to hand over to Goodluck Jonathan is because of him. They remind us that Obasanjo does not believe in democracy, and that once Jonathan takes office, Obasanjo will be the de facto power behind the throne. Pray, is this not the same Obasanjo who put their principal in power? Is this not the same Obasanjo, Turai Yar’adua went to thank in Abeokuta immediately her husband was successfully imposed on Nigerians? Is that not the same Obasanjo who appointed Sayaddi Abba Ruma as Minister of State for Education, and Tanimu Yakubu as CEO of Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria? When and why did Obasanjo become their enemy? When did they become the apostles and protectors of democracy? I tell you fellow Nigerians, these are indeed interesting times!
Even President Umaru Yar’adua (UMY) is evidently rattled. He had no choice but to issue an official explanation for his absence that apparently has some basis in reality even though clearly not the whole truth-acute pericarditis. And then he would have liked to ignore all the complaints from civil society and opposition elements about the resultant power vacuum but when his office appears threatened by protesters and an imminent debate in the National Assembly, he quickly appears on BCC (well he doesn’t really appear, but his voice does “appear”) to pre-empt any adverse actions and deflate the momentum building against him. I interpret UMY’s action to mean that contrary to the impression of many observers that he is being forced by his inner circle to hang on to power contrary to his personal desire, perhaps he actually will do whatever is possible to remain president.
These indeed are interesting times. Sad; depressing sometimes; possibly moving towards a comedy, tragedy or tragic-comedy; embarrassing as the world looks at us in amazement wondering what sort of people or nation we are; and increasingly resembling a farce. The system has put its thumb on the self-destruct button, and despite all admonition continues to press down hard. It will be interesting to see how all these resolves itself.
Certainly our friend, Ojo Maduekwe has! I did not watch his BBC interview but those who did, appear to have been thoroughly unhappy after the episode. From newspaper reports, it appears that Maduekwe was not his usual articulate self and appears to have had some difficulty rationalising and justifying the present state of affairs in our country. The Guardian (Friday, January 22, 2009) reports Ojo as admitting that Nigeria is passing through tough times and quoted him thus “ the leadership will no longer act in denial…We must accept that all is not well with us and that we missed opportunities to turn the corners”. Interesting times! So the leadership were in denial? After the Christmas day Detroit terror incident involving Umar Farouk Abdul Muttalab, we proclaimed that terrorism is not in our character. Less than thirty days later, over thirty people have died in religious violence in Bauchi and now perhaps up to a thousand in Jos. Interesting!
When Professor Wole Soyinka, Pastor Tunde Bakare and others in the “Save Nigeria Group” organised their Abuja rally, our ruling class as usual brimming with false and unfounded confidence would typically have ignored them. Spokespersons of the system would have derided them as unpatriotic elements and perpetual agitators who did not command the support of the people. But guess what, the Speaker of the House of Representatives attempted to actually address the rally. And then the establishment rallies its own assemblage of “currently displaced ex-politicians” led by Anyim Pius Anyim and gets them to address the Senate President and Federal Speaker. Yet this group, even while seeking to discredit protest as a means of ending the present crisis, made essentially the same points the protesting group were making.
The biggest sign yet that something is about to give is General Olusegun Obasanjo’s call on the President he essentially forced on Nigerians, Umaru Yar’adua to toe the path of honour and resign from office due to his health challenges. Does Obasanjo know something we don’t know? Or why do you think Obasanjo, who would otherwise have insisted “I dey Kampe” in response to any criticisms by those he would have dismissed as ignorant Nigerians, is now bothering to extricate himself from the possible backlash from the present contrived crisis and explaining himself? Even our Senators and Representatives are now hedging their bets, as reportedly many of them are getting worried that the present drift is dangerous and unsustainable.
The usually shadowy and silent Yarádua Clique is also explaining itself to Nigerians through “anonymous” media briefings even though their narrative is strange. Banking on Obasanjo’s unpopularity, they claim that the reason they don’t want to hand over to Goodluck Jonathan is because of him. They remind us that Obasanjo does not believe in democracy, and that once Jonathan takes office, Obasanjo will be the de facto power behind the throne. Pray, is this not the same Obasanjo who put their principal in power? Is this not the same Obasanjo, Turai Yar’adua went to thank in Abeokuta immediately her husband was successfully imposed on Nigerians? Is that not the same Obasanjo who appointed Sayaddi Abba Ruma as Minister of State for Education, and Tanimu Yakubu as CEO of Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria? When and why did Obasanjo become their enemy? When did they become the apostles and protectors of democracy? I tell you fellow Nigerians, these are indeed interesting times!
Even President Umaru Yar’adua (UMY) is evidently rattled. He had no choice but to issue an official explanation for his absence that apparently has some basis in reality even though clearly not the whole truth-acute pericarditis. And then he would have liked to ignore all the complaints from civil society and opposition elements about the resultant power vacuum but when his office appears threatened by protesters and an imminent debate in the National Assembly, he quickly appears on BCC (well he doesn’t really appear, but his voice does “appear”) to pre-empt any adverse actions and deflate the momentum building against him. I interpret UMY’s action to mean that contrary to the impression of many observers that he is being forced by his inner circle to hang on to power contrary to his personal desire, perhaps he actually will do whatever is possible to remain president.
These indeed are interesting times. Sad; depressing sometimes; possibly moving towards a comedy, tragedy or tragic-comedy; embarrassing as the world looks at us in amazement wondering what sort of people or nation we are; and increasingly resembling a farce. The system has put its thumb on the self-destruct button, and despite all admonition continues to press down hard. It will be interesting to see how all these resolves itself.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)