As my contribution towards refocusing the 2011 elections towards the candidates qualifications, antecedents, policies and programmes, I have developed some questions which I (and I am sure many Nigerians) will like addressed by the candidates. I urge the media, civil society and all Nigerians to direct these questions to them and invite the candidates and their campaign organisations to provide responses.
General Muhammadu Buhari
1. Do you regret the killing of drug traffickers under retroactive legislation during your regime? 2. Do you now agree that retroactive criminal laws are an abuse of human rights? 3. Why did you lock up all political office holders, and set their leader, President Shehu Shagari free? 4. How did you arrive at the decision that you announced then that Vice President Alex Ekwueme and not President Shagari was responsible for the corruption witnessed during the 1979-1983 civilian regime? 5. What is your view about the Late General Sani Abacha’s regime? 6. Do you still hold the view which you and your other military colleagues announced sometime back at Abacha’s memorial that he did no wrong? 7. Why did you serve in the regime of General Abacha? 8. Did you ever complain to Abacha about corruption, human rights abuses, murder of Kudirat Abiola, or the jailing of your former Commander-in Chief, General Obasanjo? 9. Did you discuss the death of General Shehu Yar’adua with Abacha? 10. Do you think there is any veracity to allegations of corruption in the PTF which you headed during Abacha’s reign? 11. As Minister of Petroleum Resources during the so-called $2.8 billion affair, can you shed light on what really happened? 12. Do you believe in press freedom? 13. Do you regret enacting Decree 4 which restricted press freedom? 14. Do you regret jailing Nduka Irabor and Tunde Thompson of the Guardian under that obnoxious decree? 15. Do you agree that Decree 4 was obnoxious? 16. As military Head of State, you ruled out a transition to civil rule; indeed you are the only military ruler Nigeria has ever had, who never announced a transition to civil rule. Do you now believe in democracy? 17. Can you assure Nigerians that you will not abolish democracy in place of rule by Decree if you become President? 18. Is it a coincidence that you have been involved in Nigeria’s two most repressive military regimes- yours and Abacha? 19. Are you a democrat by instinct? 20. Do you believe in fundamental human rights? 21. During your regime, you showed little understanding of the economy. Are you now better equipped to deal with economic issues? 22. What is your economic philosophy? 23. Why have you never outlined a concrete economic or policy programme in your previous attempts at running for the Presidency? 24. Can you explain the”53 suit cases” matter which happened during your regime? 25. Your regime embarked on a controversial “counter-trade” scheme which reportedly became an avenue for corruption. Can you shed light on what really happened? 26. Why is it that you have never commented on the annulment of the June 12, 1993 elections? 27. Do you believe the annulment was wrong? 28. Did you ever discuss Abacha’s self-perpetration scheme with him? 29. Why is it that while Obasanjo and Yar’adua got into trouble with Abacha, you retained his confidence and trust, evidenced by the fact that you served in his government without any conflict between two of you? 30. How do you reconcile your reputation as incorrupt with your tenure as Minister of Petroleum under General Obasanjo; PTF Chairman, (PTF in particular was allegedly riddled with corruption) under General Abacha’a corrupt government; and the regime you headed as Head of State’s counter-trade scandal?
General Ibrahim Babangida
1. Your regime announced a transition to civil rule for 1990. Why did you shift it to 1992? 2. Why did you shift again from 1992 to 1993? 3. Do you believe Nigerians are entitled to know why the June 12, 1993 elections were annulled? 4. Will you explain that now? 5. You were Military President when Dele Giwa was killed through a parcel bomb, an unprecedented and unusual development in Nigeria. Was your government interested in finding out who killed him? 6. What did you discover and what can you tell Nigerian about the death of Dele Giwa? 7. When you were “stepping aside” you retired all the service chiefs but left General Sani Abacha in office. Why did you do this? 8. Why do you think Nigerians accuse you of institutionalising a culture of “settlement” in Nigeria? 9. Can you shed light to Nigerians and the family of Major-General Mamman Vatsa the events leading to his death? 10. The educational sector was virtually crippled due to strikes, cultism, brain drain and poor funding during your regime. Why did this happen? 11. The same factors in the education sector manifested in the health sector. Again can you shed light on why this happened? 12. Do you believe at 69 years of age, you are strong and sufficiently mentally alert to rule a complex and dynamic nation like Nigeria? 13. Why are you predicating your claim to power on an ethnic or regional claim to power, rather than policies and programmes? 14. Will you have a First Lady as President? 15. Your son’s generation are leaders in USA and UK. Why do you believe Nigeria’s case should be different? 16. Can you shed light on this vexed issue of the Okigbo Report and so-called Gulf war windfall? 17. General Salihu Ibrahim described the Nigerian Army under you, as “an army of any thing is possible” .Do you believe you contributed to de-professionalising the army when you were in power? 18. Many commentators accuse your regime of eroding national values. Why do you think phenomena such as corruption, 419, etc are traced and associated in popular consciousness with your regime? 19. What is your view about corruption? 20. Do you think you will have the credibility with Nigerians and the international community to fight corruption? 21. During your regime, professional and civil society institutions such as NBA, NMA, NANS, NLC and the media appeared to have been systematically subverted. Do you accept this viewpoint? 22. Do you accept responsibility for our present un-ideological party system due to the strenuous effects of your government to banish “extremists” and “old breed” politicians from the political space? 23. Do you believe in democracy? 24. Why did you ban certain categories of politicians from politics? 25. You threatened many times that you know those who will not succeed you and decreed into existence government sponsored political parties. Do you believe such actions are compatible with democracy? 26. You were referred to as “Maradona”, “evil genius” and you seemed to relish such characterizations. Do you believe a leader should dribble and manipulate the citizens? 27. Do you believe in transparency, openness and accountability in government? 28. In your view, why is it that in spite of relative domination of power by “Northern” leaders, such as yourself, poverty and illiteracy remains predominant in the Northern States? 29. You have ruled Nigeria for 8 years. Why do you want to rule again? 30. What is your vision for Nigeria? Is it different from the one you had while you were in power?
General Aliyu Gusau
1. Your entire career has been in the military and security services and Nigerians know very little about you or what you believe in. Do you think it is necessary in a democracy for the people to know who their prospective leaders are? 2. Can you share your social, political, economic and other views and programmes with us? 3. Your ambition seems predicted entirely on “zoning” and the “North’s” entitlement to the presidency. Why are you not basing your ambition on your competences, qualifications and programmes for the presidency? 4. There was a recent newspaper report which stated that there was an agreement between you, IBB and Abacha for each of you to rule Nigeria in turns. Is this claim true? 5. Can you shed light in your role in the events leading to, and the aftermath of the June 12 1993 elections? 6. You were a major player in the Murtala/Obasanjo, Buhari, Babangida, Abdulsalam and Obasanjo regimes even though Nigeria know little about your role in these governments. Can you explain what actions, policies and initiatives you carried out during these regimes? 7. Do you believe military rule was a disservice to Nigeria? 8. Would you support, in any circumstances, a return to military rule in Nigeria? 9. Do you think your advocacy of power returning to the north as a MUST can compromise the unity of Nigeria? 10. What concrete policies and programmes can Nigeria expect from your government?
Dr Bukola Saraki
1. You were defacto CEO in your family bank, Societe Generale Bank which is now distressed. Can you explain to Nigerians what happened to that Bank? 2. There are allegations that the EFCC conducted an investigation which indicted you and some other members of your family regarding management of the Bank. Is there any truth to these allegations? 3. You are the out going governor of Kwara state. Do you consider Kwara State a democracy? 4. Most Nigerians perceive Kwara state as ruled exclusively by your family. Is this a fair allegation? 5. Can Nigerians expect that as President you will seek to replicate the system of politics in Kwara state all over Nigeria? 6. Some analysts suggest that you have indeed attempted through your activities as Chairman of the Governors Forum to export the “Kwara Style” of politics to the national level. How would you react to this accusation? 7. Do you believe in openness and transparency in governance? 8. If yes, can you explain in details the structure, ownership, operations and financing of the so –called” Zimbabwean White farmers” transaction? 9. As a “new generation” aspirant, do you believe leaders should be selected on the basis of their character, qualifications, antecedents and performance? 10. If yes, why are you joining the coalition of “Northern aspirants in the PDP in coming out with a “Northern” consensus candidate to oppose President Jonathan? 11. Do you believe such actions advance unity and cohesion in the Nigeria Federation? 12. Do you believe such actions reflect a new way of thinking? 13. Many Nigerians regard you as a member of the “Cabal” that tried to prevent President Jonathan from taking office doing the late President Yar’adua’s illness. Can you shed light on your role during this trying period in Nigeria is history? 14. How do you think the issue of your successor in Kwara state should be handled? 15. Do you believe your sister is the best person to succeed you as Kwara state Governor?
Mallam Nuhu Ribadu
1. What are your plans and programmes if you are elected President of Nigeria? 2. As a lawyer, do you respect human rights and fundamental freedoms of the citizens? 3. While your commitment to the anti-corruption crusade in Nigerian is commendable, can you defend all your activities as EFCC chairman? 4. Do you believe it was right to use EFCC as a tool for securing impeachment of Governors as you once did? 5. Do you think it was right to use the EFCC to attempt to bar ex-President Obasanjo‘s “enemies” from contesting elections? 6. Can you assure Nigerians that as President, you would not abuse the power of the office in dealing with your opponents and critics? 7. What criteria would you adopt in selecting your running mate, ministers and other appointees? 8. What is your vision for Nigeria? 9. Do you believe you have the maturity and disposition to govern Nigeria? 10. Why did you select the ACN as your platform for seeking the Presidency?
Alhaji Abubakar Atiku
1. You were elected Governor of Adamawa State, before your elevation to the Vice Presidency, whereupon your Deputy and protégé, Bonnie Haruna took over as Governor. What were the achievements of the PDP government of Haruna, which you established in Adamawa State during its 8- year tenure? 2. Do you agree that as then leader and inspiration for the PDP in Adamawa, the performance or non-performance of Haruna’s government in Adamawa reflects on you? 3. It is curious that in spite of having been at or near top of Nigeria’s politics and government for almost two decades, Nigerians cannot clearly define your political philosophy, principles, policies and programmes. What do you believe in as a leader and politician? 4. Do you believe you are a principled politician? 5. Can you be validly accused of expediency, opportunism and lack of principle given your movement from PDP to AC and back to PDP again? Does this suggest that you will do anything or go anywhere to get power? 6. Why do you think you have a reputation with most Nigerians as a corrupt politician? 7. How did you amass, what is believed to be your vast wealth? 8. What is your net worth as an individual? 9. Do you believe Nigerians are entitled to know how rich you are and how you obtained your wealth? 10. Do you believe in the Freedom of Information Bill? 11. Do you believe in openness, transparency and accountability in governance? 12. Some analysts believe that predicating your 2011 presidential ambition on “Northern” claim to power has damaged your reputation as a nationalist. Will you govern as a national or “Northern” president if elected as president? 13. Do you believe corruption is probably Nigeria’s most important challenge? 14. How will you deal with the issue of corruption? 15. Nigerians remain unclear about the “Jefferson Affair” in the US in which you were mentioned. Can you clarify what happened? 16. What is your vision for Nigeria? 17. What policies, programmes and initiatives will you pursue if elected Presidents? 18. Some analysts argue that the Obasanjo regime made more progress in the second term when you were more-or-less marginalised. Do you agree with this observation? 19. Nigerians believe the customs service is a corrupt organisation. As a former customs officer, how will you reform this vital institution? 20. Why should Nigerians elect you President?
President Goodluck Jonathan
1. What were your achievements as Deputy Governor and Governor of Bayelsa State and as Acting President and Substantive President? 2. What programmes and policies would you execute if elected in 2011? 3. I personally believe your power sector roadmap is credible. What assurance can you give Nigerians on its implementation? 4. What criteria will you adopt in selecting your ministers and other appointees if elected? 5. Why did you acquiesce in the demands by Governors to deplete the “excess crude account”? 6. When will the Sovereign Wealth Fund which you promised be established? 7. How do you propose to tackle crime, insecurity, kidnapping and other vices that detract from security in Nigeria? 8. What is your programme on anti-corruption? 9. Do you believe the current EFCC is doing a good job? How will you re-invigorate the activities of the organisation? 10. Your appointment of Professor Jega as INEC Chair and the prompt release of funds to him are commendable. What assurances can you give Nigerians on the 2011 elections? 11. You have taken a good step towards government openness, transparency and communication with citizens by engaging with Nigerians through facebook. Do you believe the freedom of Information Bill will further entrench public communication and accountability? 12. What are your programmes for the social sector -Education, Health, Employment Generation, Social Welfare, etc? 13. What are your thoughts on leveraging Nigeria’s potential as a transportation hub in West Africa and Africa? Do you have any plans to revitalise the rail sector? 14. Have you read the Mines and Minerals Act 2007? Do you agree that if properly administered, solid minerals can bring huge amount of investments, jobs and public revenue? What are you doing to realize this potential? 15. What are your views on modernising agriculture and land reform? 16. Do you have a plan for urban housing and mass transit? 17. What are your views on Nigeria’s foreign policy and national defence strategy? 18. Some commentators have accused you of making changes in the armed forces, police and SSS for political reasons. Can you explain why you changed the service chiefs? 19. In your view, what should be the role of “first ladies” in national life? 20. What is your vision for Nigeria by 2015?
Monday, September 27, 2010
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Nigeria: Forward or Backward? Part 3
I wrote parts 1 and 2 of this series on April 28 and May 5 2010 concerned at our predilection for “looking backwards rather than forward in our national life”. I reviewed the interest of different candidates in the post-2011 presidency and challenged Nigerians to “look forward, carefully and meticulously for a new, more promising leadership” as looking backwards will not provide the quality of leaders we need. Don’t they say that madness is doing the same thing continuously and hoping to get different results? Now as 2011 electoral battlefield formations become clear, I have chosen to return to the subject.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential line-up may be complete-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, former military ruler General Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; former Chief of Army Staff and two-time National Security Adviser General Aliyu Gusau and outgoing Kwara State Governor Dr Bukola Saraki. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is the only party whose candidate is certain-former military dictator, General Muhammadu Buhari! The renamed Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) may feature Dr Usman Bugaje or Mallam Nuhu Ribadu but Ribadu may also opt to contest through another party. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) may feature MKO Abiola’s opponent in the 1993 election Alhaji Bashir Tofa, Kano State Governor Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, or Babangida, Atiku or Gusau if, as seems likely they lose the PDP’s nomination to Jonathan. Others in the frame may be ex-Governor Donald Duke, Professor Pat Utomi (who may also make the controversial move of running as Buhari’s deputy), Pastor Kris Okotie, Mr Dele Momodu and Mrs Sarah Jubril.
In this line-up, Babangida, Atiku, Gusau, Buhari and Tofa represent backward-looking options. I would argue that Nigeria has since July 1998, when General Abdulsalam Abubakar became transitional military head of state, being engaged in a transition from an old to a new Nigeria. Abdulsalam played his part by returning the country swiftly to civilian rule in May 1999. President Obasanjo contributed by embarking on telecommunications deregulation, pension reform, banking consolidation, securing the Paris Club debt write-off thus giving the nation a new economic lease of life and restoring Nigeria to its place in the comity of nations after our Abacha-induced international isolation. Obasanjo of course also set us back some steps with the quality of elections conducted in 2003 and 2007.
Late President Yar’adua chipped in through the Niger-Delta amnesty. He however failed to advance economic development, particularly the power sector where he abandoned the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 in favour of a failed state-led strategy designed by Rilwanu Lukman. In his short stay in office, President Goodluck Jonathan has moved ahead through his power sector roadmap; the prospect of credible elections and constitution of a credible INEC led by Professor Attahiru Jega and its increased financial autonomy; fostering government-citizen communication and accountability through his Facebook page and other actions; equalisation of opportunities in political, military and security positions for all geo-political regions in the country through balanced appointments and particularly with his appointment of an Igbo officer as Chief of Army Staff.
The biggest error Nigeria can make is to take forward movement for granted and risk reversal with the election of IBB, Buhari, Atiku, Gusau and Tofa! And this is not about their age!!! These candidates have a template for thinking about Nigeria that is shaped by the regional/ethnic politics and turmoil of the first republic; the bloody 1966 coup and its aftermath; the civil war of 1967 to 1970; military rule and the development of the unitarist Nigerian state; oil boom and revenue “sharing”; contractor-capitalism and the prebendal, distributive, consumption economy; and the lack of political and citizen accountability of the Buhari, Babangida and Abacha years. They seem incapable of relating to the new Nigeria as evidenced by for instance, defence of regional platforms; power claims based on irredentist paradigms; and the arrogance involved in their assumption that they can intimidate President Jonathan out of the race. They appear not to understand the changes in Nigeria’s civil society, impact of telecommunications, broadcast, internet and social networking revolutions on Nigeria’s emerging politics and emerging role of youth, media and civil society in defining national direction.
Unfortunately even a young candidate like Bukola Saraki demonstrates similar failure to understand the emerging new Nigeria, when he joins in building a “Northern” coalition with other anti-Jonathan candidates within the PDP. That mindset is set in Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and National Party of Nigeria (NPN) politics and not in the Nigeria of 2010! Not surprisingly accomplices in such out-dated strategy include Adamu Ciroma, Lawal Kaita, Tanko Yakassai, Bello Kirfi and other pre-millennial, septuagenarian, regional champions!!! Such attitudes reflect a fixation on the unhelpful and discredited ways of our past!
I think Nigerians should move on and refuse to acquiesce in the abortion of the transition to a new Nigeria by ignoring those steeped in the old one. When Ambassador John Campbell writes about a “Muslim North” and “Christian South” and exaggerates the possibility of a military coup, he talks about the old Nigeria. Yes the new is still emerging, but Nigerians have no reason to accept a return to the fading old Nigeria!
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential line-up may be complete-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, former military ruler General Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; former Chief of Army Staff and two-time National Security Adviser General Aliyu Gusau and outgoing Kwara State Governor Dr Bukola Saraki. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is the only party whose candidate is certain-former military dictator, General Muhammadu Buhari! The renamed Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) may feature Dr Usman Bugaje or Mallam Nuhu Ribadu but Ribadu may also opt to contest through another party. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) may feature MKO Abiola’s opponent in the 1993 election Alhaji Bashir Tofa, Kano State Governor Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, or Babangida, Atiku or Gusau if, as seems likely they lose the PDP’s nomination to Jonathan. Others in the frame may be ex-Governor Donald Duke, Professor Pat Utomi (who may also make the controversial move of running as Buhari’s deputy), Pastor Kris Okotie, Mr Dele Momodu and Mrs Sarah Jubril.
In this line-up, Babangida, Atiku, Gusau, Buhari and Tofa represent backward-looking options. I would argue that Nigeria has since July 1998, when General Abdulsalam Abubakar became transitional military head of state, being engaged in a transition from an old to a new Nigeria. Abdulsalam played his part by returning the country swiftly to civilian rule in May 1999. President Obasanjo contributed by embarking on telecommunications deregulation, pension reform, banking consolidation, securing the Paris Club debt write-off thus giving the nation a new economic lease of life and restoring Nigeria to its place in the comity of nations after our Abacha-induced international isolation. Obasanjo of course also set us back some steps with the quality of elections conducted in 2003 and 2007.
Late President Yar’adua chipped in through the Niger-Delta amnesty. He however failed to advance economic development, particularly the power sector where he abandoned the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 in favour of a failed state-led strategy designed by Rilwanu Lukman. In his short stay in office, President Goodluck Jonathan has moved ahead through his power sector roadmap; the prospect of credible elections and constitution of a credible INEC led by Professor Attahiru Jega and its increased financial autonomy; fostering government-citizen communication and accountability through his Facebook page and other actions; equalisation of opportunities in political, military and security positions for all geo-political regions in the country through balanced appointments and particularly with his appointment of an Igbo officer as Chief of Army Staff.
The biggest error Nigeria can make is to take forward movement for granted and risk reversal with the election of IBB, Buhari, Atiku, Gusau and Tofa! And this is not about their age!!! These candidates have a template for thinking about Nigeria that is shaped by the regional/ethnic politics and turmoil of the first republic; the bloody 1966 coup and its aftermath; the civil war of 1967 to 1970; military rule and the development of the unitarist Nigerian state; oil boom and revenue “sharing”; contractor-capitalism and the prebendal, distributive, consumption economy; and the lack of political and citizen accountability of the Buhari, Babangida and Abacha years. They seem incapable of relating to the new Nigeria as evidenced by for instance, defence of regional platforms; power claims based on irredentist paradigms; and the arrogance involved in their assumption that they can intimidate President Jonathan out of the race. They appear not to understand the changes in Nigeria’s civil society, impact of telecommunications, broadcast, internet and social networking revolutions on Nigeria’s emerging politics and emerging role of youth, media and civil society in defining national direction.
Unfortunately even a young candidate like Bukola Saraki demonstrates similar failure to understand the emerging new Nigeria, when he joins in building a “Northern” coalition with other anti-Jonathan candidates within the PDP. That mindset is set in Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and National Party of Nigeria (NPN) politics and not in the Nigeria of 2010! Not surprisingly accomplices in such out-dated strategy include Adamu Ciroma, Lawal Kaita, Tanko Yakassai, Bello Kirfi and other pre-millennial, septuagenarian, regional champions!!! Such attitudes reflect a fixation on the unhelpful and discredited ways of our past!
I think Nigerians should move on and refuse to acquiesce in the abortion of the transition to a new Nigeria by ignoring those steeped in the old one. When Ambassador John Campbell writes about a “Muslim North” and “Christian South” and exaggerates the possibility of a military coup, he talks about the old Nigeria. Yes the new is still emerging, but Nigerians have no reason to accept a return to the fading old Nigeria!
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Operation Sweep!!!
President Jonathan carried out a clean sweep of the military and security leadership on Wednesday September 8, 2010 replacing the Army, Navy, Air Force, Police and State Security Service (SSS) heads and promoting the former Air Force Chief Air Marshall Oluseyi Petinrin to Chief of Defence Staff. With that action, Jonathan’s transition to the full powers of the executive presidency of Nigeria, which started when his predecessor took ill in November 2009, is now complete. Some might argue, with some justification that the transition actually began in 2007 when the PDP named a candidate with a known history of serious illness as presidential candidate and selected a young and healthy Jonathan as his running mate.
The military and the security system represent the ultimate manifestation of state power anywhere in the world. In the US, the power to wage war is perhaps the most potent and historically significant (for good or for bad) a president can exercise. President Barrack Obama had no choice but to fire his Afghanistan war commander General Stanley McChrystal in June 2010 when he made comments which appeared to disparage the country’s civilian leadership. Ultimately what separates mature democracies from unstable or evolving ones and military dictatorships is civilian control over the military and security. In “Memo to Goodluck Jonathan” (March 24, 2010), I wrote in this column “…I am sure you recognise that there are some critical institutions whose leadership you must still replace for your hold on power to be complete and assured.” The President has now followed that advice!!!
President Jonathan’s presidency, especially in a period of complex and tense transition could not be said to be fully established if he is unable to replace the service chiefs inherited from his predecessor. This is so especially as it was clear that he could not be assured of the loyalty of some of them, indeed perhaps the most critical ones. Observers will remember how the security services kept then Acting President Jonathan in the dark about late Yar’adua’s health status; flew him back into Abuja from Saudi Arabia without Jonathan’s knowledge, deploying military troops in Abuja and environs in the process; and prevented Jonathan from seeing the dying Yar’adua in Aso Rock after his return. The president has indeed been gracious in leaving some of the military chiefs in place for four months after he assumed the full presidency! But then that is consistent with the President’s emerging calm, conciliatory and consensus-building approach. It is a style as I have pointed out earlier that is liable to be interpreted as evidence of fear or weakness, but the decision regarding the military chiefs proves that Jonathan can be tactical, strong and decisive when the occasion demands. I suspect that the man’s opponents may now understand that they underrate him at their own peril!
The three most strategically important of the appointments relate to the choice of Major-General A. O Ihejirika as Chief of Army Staff; Alhaji Hafiz Ringim as Inspector-General; and Mr Ita Ekpenyong as SSS Director-General. General Ihejirika is the first Igbo after General J. T. U Aguiyi-Ironsi and the civil war to be appointed as army chief. As many have pointed out, his gratifying elevation represents the final shattering of the glass ceiling over Igbo officers in the military establishment. Coming after Ogbonnaya Onovo, another Igbo earlier appointed by Jonathan as Inspector General of Police (IGP), we may now be seeing the final levelling of career opportunities in the military and security for all Nigerians. Alhaji Ringim as IGP will have the duty of reducing crime and insecurity and helping to organise credible elections in 2011. Having worked with Jonathan as Bayelsa Governor, he is likely to enjoy the President’s trust and confidence. The fact that the Air and Navy Chiefs, Air Vice Marshall Mohammed Dikko Umar and Rear Admiral Ola Sa’ad Ibrahim, as well as the IGP are Northerners communicates the fact that the president retains (or intends to retain) the trust and support of the North and will work to establish inclusive governance. Mr Ekpenyong, a Niger-Deltan will now take charge of the security services. Air Marshall Petinrin is now the most senior military chief with oversight over all the services.
The appointments will have important political consequences. They strengthen the president’s hand and send the signal that he takes seriously the duty of maintaining law, order and constitutional government in Nigeria. Jonathan now fully holds the levers of state power and can deploy them in the unfolding power game. Many will now think more carefully about attempting to intimidate him! His action is likely to have sent some jitters down the spine of his political adversaries who might have imagined that they were dealing with a president who is naive about power, and who can be confronted, cowed and overawed. He communicates to the Igbos that he is prepared to complete the re-integration of the Igbo into the Nigerian state and may have scored points in that geo-political zone by this action. The appointments represent the equalisation of opportunities for Nigerians of all ethnic groups and geo-political zones not just in the military and security establishment, but in all other government positions.
This action cannot hurt the president’s effort to stay in office beyond 2011!
The military and the security system represent the ultimate manifestation of state power anywhere in the world. In the US, the power to wage war is perhaps the most potent and historically significant (for good or for bad) a president can exercise. President Barrack Obama had no choice but to fire his Afghanistan war commander General Stanley McChrystal in June 2010 when he made comments which appeared to disparage the country’s civilian leadership. Ultimately what separates mature democracies from unstable or evolving ones and military dictatorships is civilian control over the military and security. In “Memo to Goodluck Jonathan” (March 24, 2010), I wrote in this column “…I am sure you recognise that there are some critical institutions whose leadership you must still replace for your hold on power to be complete and assured.” The President has now followed that advice!!!
President Jonathan’s presidency, especially in a period of complex and tense transition could not be said to be fully established if he is unable to replace the service chiefs inherited from his predecessor. This is so especially as it was clear that he could not be assured of the loyalty of some of them, indeed perhaps the most critical ones. Observers will remember how the security services kept then Acting President Jonathan in the dark about late Yar’adua’s health status; flew him back into Abuja from Saudi Arabia without Jonathan’s knowledge, deploying military troops in Abuja and environs in the process; and prevented Jonathan from seeing the dying Yar’adua in Aso Rock after his return. The president has indeed been gracious in leaving some of the military chiefs in place for four months after he assumed the full presidency! But then that is consistent with the President’s emerging calm, conciliatory and consensus-building approach. It is a style as I have pointed out earlier that is liable to be interpreted as evidence of fear or weakness, but the decision regarding the military chiefs proves that Jonathan can be tactical, strong and decisive when the occasion demands. I suspect that the man’s opponents may now understand that they underrate him at their own peril!
The three most strategically important of the appointments relate to the choice of Major-General A. O Ihejirika as Chief of Army Staff; Alhaji Hafiz Ringim as Inspector-General; and Mr Ita Ekpenyong as SSS Director-General. General Ihejirika is the first Igbo after General J. T. U Aguiyi-Ironsi and the civil war to be appointed as army chief. As many have pointed out, his gratifying elevation represents the final shattering of the glass ceiling over Igbo officers in the military establishment. Coming after Ogbonnaya Onovo, another Igbo earlier appointed by Jonathan as Inspector General of Police (IGP), we may now be seeing the final levelling of career opportunities in the military and security for all Nigerians. Alhaji Ringim as IGP will have the duty of reducing crime and insecurity and helping to organise credible elections in 2011. Having worked with Jonathan as Bayelsa Governor, he is likely to enjoy the President’s trust and confidence. The fact that the Air and Navy Chiefs, Air Vice Marshall Mohammed Dikko Umar and Rear Admiral Ola Sa’ad Ibrahim, as well as the IGP are Northerners communicates the fact that the president retains (or intends to retain) the trust and support of the North and will work to establish inclusive governance. Mr Ekpenyong, a Niger-Deltan will now take charge of the security services. Air Marshall Petinrin is now the most senior military chief with oversight over all the services.
The appointments will have important political consequences. They strengthen the president’s hand and send the signal that he takes seriously the duty of maintaining law, order and constitutional government in Nigeria. Jonathan now fully holds the levers of state power and can deploy them in the unfolding power game. Many will now think more carefully about attempting to intimidate him! His action is likely to have sent some jitters down the spine of his political adversaries who might have imagined that they were dealing with a president who is naive about power, and who can be confronted, cowed and overawed. He communicates to the Igbos that he is prepared to complete the re-integration of the Igbo into the Nigerian state and may have scored points in that geo-political zone by this action. The appointments represent the equalisation of opportunities for Nigerians of all ethnic groups and geo-political zones not just in the military and security establishment, but in all other government positions.
This action cannot hurt the president’s effort to stay in office beyond 2011!
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Bypassing Principle and Reason
Those familiar with Dr Chidi Amuta’s antecedents would not be surprised that his THISDAY article of Thursday, August 26 2010 titled “Babangida and the Western Bypass” amounted to probably the most extensive public advocacy in defence of his “friend” Babangida since the annulment of the June 12, 1993 election. Amuta is the author of the IBB apology, “Prince of the Niger” and intelligent contemporary readers may have already discerned some not-so-hidden agenda in his recent canvassing amongst others for “the imperative of zoning” and a “governors’ party”. The unexpected dimension this time is the wholesale vilification of an entire ethnic group, who Amuta derided as “the Western Bypass”; his glancing blows at the media (especially the so-called “Lagos Press”-a group I thought he belongs to!!!) who he accuses of acting “often at the instance of the Yoruba elite”; and talk of an “oppositional agenda of the media”.
Amuta lists virtually all Yorubas who in his words “benefitted” from IBB and accuses the South-West of ingratitude, for appearing not to support IBB’s 2011 presidential ambition. For a public intellectual which Amuta is or used to be, this is a curious charge. Is public service a favour to be dispensed by a kingly benefactor? What is wrong with Wole Soyinka for instance, availing the nation his services in creating the Federal Road Safety Corps, something he had done previously in Oyo State? Does serving his nation require him to remain eternally grateful and supportive of IBB’s leadership irrespective of principles and IBB’s subsequent actions? Can a Nigerian leader elect to exclude any ethnic group from public offices? For every Yoruba person who served or “benefitted” from IBB, couldn’t one produce an equivalent name from other “geo-political” zones?
(South-East-Ebitu Ukiwe, Kalu Idika Kalu, Chu S P Okongwu, Ike Nwachukwu, Professor Nzimiro, Iwuanyanwu, Clement Akpamgbo (SAN), Sunny Odogwu, Professors Eme Awa and Humphrey Nwosu and I presume Chidi Amuta! South-South-General Ogbemudia, Tam David-West, Admiral Aikhomu, A.K Horsfall, Tonye Graham-Douglas, Sam Oyovbaire, Raymond Dokpesi, Admiral Porbeni, Paul Omu, Anthony Ikhazobor, Larry Koinyan, Tony Momoh, Patrick Dele-Cole and Mike Akhigbe; Middle-Belt names-John Shagaya, Joshua Dogonyaro, Jerry Gana, General Domkat Bali, David Mark, Jerry Useni, Stephen Ikya, John Inienger etc; The “core” Northern zones-Ibrahim Dasuki, Coomasie, Umaru Shinkafi, Justice Muhammed Bello, AVM Hamza Abdulahi, Bamanga Tukur, Aliyu Attah, Muhammadu Gambo, Halilu Akilu, Umaru Ndanusa, Ibrahim Alfa, Murtala Nyako, Shehu Musa, General Abacha, Alhaji Abubakar Alhaji, AVM Nura Imam, Gado Nasko, Jubril Aminu, General Aliyu Gusau and numerous others.) Does it not amount to intellectual sophistry for anyone to present one group as having “benefitted” from Babangida’s regime requiring some life-long payback? The accusation in any event, proceeds from a certain mindset about the nature of public office, one that has been described as “come and eat” mentality!
Beyond this unfortunate ethnic arithmetic, Amuta dismisses the annulment of the 1993 election as done “for reasons of higher national security”; mocks Yorubas for Awolowo’s failure to attain national power; and attributes Abiola and Obasanjo’s subsequent victories exclusively to IBB’s grace and favour! Amuta’s closing argument is the most intriguing. He derides the ethnic group’s “oppositional essence”; describes the region as a “political bypass”; and threatens IBB will win without Yoruba votes. There may be some method behind the intellectual strangeness! The strategy (as with “June 12”) may be recast opposition to IBB as a Yoruba phenomenon, turn others against them, and isolate anger against IBB’s presidential run to the South-West. No one should fall for this tactic. Many Hausa-Fulanis are not passionate about “zoning” because IBB is positioned as beneficiary; Many Nigerians from South-South or South-East argue vehemently against IBB; And very few in the middle-belt are looking forward to an IBB presidency!
Anyone in opposition in Nigeria, given the very poor results after fifty years of independence should be proud of himself! There is no pride in being in the mainstream of corruption, election rigging, absence of vision and planning, infrastructure decay, power shortages, crime and insecurity, poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and profligacy! The media should be proud of acting in line with its moral and constitutional duty of opposing these tendencies. Unfortunately for IBB, I think Amuta’s pre-emptive strike at the PDP South-West meeting in Ibadan on August 28 which adopted Jonathan, was in fact a disservice to his campaign. I don’t think Yorubas hate IBB personally. They may oppose him (just like Obasanjo and even MKO Abiola), but that is based on some principles. They supported Murtala Muhammed and once supported IBB himself! Candidates for political office engage with opposing viewpoints (and as MKO proved they sometimes succeed) and not write them off or threaten to “bypass” them. If IBB wants the votes of all ethnic nationalities in Nigeria, his duty is to address their objections and present his record in office in as best a light as he can!
Instead of reason, Amuta resorts to power and expediency-“since you can’t stop us, you better join us”. It is a tragedy that this argument is presented not by some ex-military officer, policeman or customs officer friend of IBB, but a former university lecturer and newspaper columnist who earned a PHD! Perhaps proximity to the Nigerian brand of prebendal state power and its “benefits” has affected Dr Amuta’s notions about national values and how a people exercise their choices about their leadership.
Amuta lists virtually all Yorubas who in his words “benefitted” from IBB and accuses the South-West of ingratitude, for appearing not to support IBB’s 2011 presidential ambition. For a public intellectual which Amuta is or used to be, this is a curious charge. Is public service a favour to be dispensed by a kingly benefactor? What is wrong with Wole Soyinka for instance, availing the nation his services in creating the Federal Road Safety Corps, something he had done previously in Oyo State? Does serving his nation require him to remain eternally grateful and supportive of IBB’s leadership irrespective of principles and IBB’s subsequent actions? Can a Nigerian leader elect to exclude any ethnic group from public offices? For every Yoruba person who served or “benefitted” from IBB, couldn’t one produce an equivalent name from other “geo-political” zones?
(South-East-Ebitu Ukiwe, Kalu Idika Kalu, Chu S P Okongwu, Ike Nwachukwu, Professor Nzimiro, Iwuanyanwu, Clement Akpamgbo (SAN), Sunny Odogwu, Professors Eme Awa and Humphrey Nwosu and I presume Chidi Amuta! South-South-General Ogbemudia, Tam David-West, Admiral Aikhomu, A.K Horsfall, Tonye Graham-Douglas, Sam Oyovbaire, Raymond Dokpesi, Admiral Porbeni, Paul Omu, Anthony Ikhazobor, Larry Koinyan, Tony Momoh, Patrick Dele-Cole and Mike Akhigbe; Middle-Belt names-John Shagaya, Joshua Dogonyaro, Jerry Gana, General Domkat Bali, David Mark, Jerry Useni, Stephen Ikya, John Inienger etc; The “core” Northern zones-Ibrahim Dasuki, Coomasie, Umaru Shinkafi, Justice Muhammed Bello, AVM Hamza Abdulahi, Bamanga Tukur, Aliyu Attah, Muhammadu Gambo, Halilu Akilu, Umaru Ndanusa, Ibrahim Alfa, Murtala Nyako, Shehu Musa, General Abacha, Alhaji Abubakar Alhaji, AVM Nura Imam, Gado Nasko, Jubril Aminu, General Aliyu Gusau and numerous others.) Does it not amount to intellectual sophistry for anyone to present one group as having “benefitted” from Babangida’s regime requiring some life-long payback? The accusation in any event, proceeds from a certain mindset about the nature of public office, one that has been described as “come and eat” mentality!
Beyond this unfortunate ethnic arithmetic, Amuta dismisses the annulment of the 1993 election as done “for reasons of higher national security”; mocks Yorubas for Awolowo’s failure to attain national power; and attributes Abiola and Obasanjo’s subsequent victories exclusively to IBB’s grace and favour! Amuta’s closing argument is the most intriguing. He derides the ethnic group’s “oppositional essence”; describes the region as a “political bypass”; and threatens IBB will win without Yoruba votes. There may be some method behind the intellectual strangeness! The strategy (as with “June 12”) may be recast opposition to IBB as a Yoruba phenomenon, turn others against them, and isolate anger against IBB’s presidential run to the South-West. No one should fall for this tactic. Many Hausa-Fulanis are not passionate about “zoning” because IBB is positioned as beneficiary; Many Nigerians from South-South or South-East argue vehemently against IBB; And very few in the middle-belt are looking forward to an IBB presidency!
Anyone in opposition in Nigeria, given the very poor results after fifty years of independence should be proud of himself! There is no pride in being in the mainstream of corruption, election rigging, absence of vision and planning, infrastructure decay, power shortages, crime and insecurity, poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and profligacy! The media should be proud of acting in line with its moral and constitutional duty of opposing these tendencies. Unfortunately for IBB, I think Amuta’s pre-emptive strike at the PDP South-West meeting in Ibadan on August 28 which adopted Jonathan, was in fact a disservice to his campaign. I don’t think Yorubas hate IBB personally. They may oppose him (just like Obasanjo and even MKO Abiola), but that is based on some principles. They supported Murtala Muhammed and once supported IBB himself! Candidates for political office engage with opposing viewpoints (and as MKO proved they sometimes succeed) and not write them off or threaten to “bypass” them. If IBB wants the votes of all ethnic nationalities in Nigeria, his duty is to address their objections and present his record in office in as best a light as he can!
Instead of reason, Amuta resorts to power and expediency-“since you can’t stop us, you better join us”. It is a tragedy that this argument is presented not by some ex-military officer, policeman or customs officer friend of IBB, but a former university lecturer and newspaper columnist who earned a PHD! Perhaps proximity to the Nigerian brand of prebendal state power and its “benefits” has affected Dr Amuta’s notions about national values and how a people exercise their choices about their leadership.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Jonathan's Route to Power!
President Goodluck Jonathan unveiled his “Roadmap for Power Sector Reform” last Thursday August 26, 2010 at the Eko Hotel and Suites in Lagos. Sitting in the hall watching proceedings, I got a feeling that I had experienced on two previous occasions in the last decade-at the dawn of the digital mobile license (GSM) auctions in 2001 and the launch of the pension reforms in Abuja in 2006. If the president and his team succeed, he will go down in history as the person who removed the last major obstacle on the path to Nigeria’s economic liberation! At the launch, Jonathan seemed to recognise what was as stake as he proclaimed an imminent “revolution” in the power sector. In the roadmap document, he declared “We have the will. This Roadmap shows the way”. We hope this bold talk will be matched with swift and effective execution!
To be fair, there are indeed signs of strong commitment by the regime to solve this power conundrum once and for all. The implementation mechanism is one such indicator. Consistent with his decision to take direct responsibility for the power ministry, President Jonathan personally chairs the Presidential Action Committee on Power (PACP) which includes the Vice-President, Secretary to Government of the Federation, Head of Service, Ministers of Finance, Petroleum Resources and National Planning, Minister of State for Power, CBN Governor and the Special Adviser on Power, Professor Barth Nnaji. Professor Nnaji heads the Presidential Task Force whose membership includes the Permanent Secretary in the Power Ministry, NNPC Group Managing Director, DG Bureau of Public Enterprises, DG Bureau of Public Procurement, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Special Projects and selected CEOs of PHCN unbundled entities amongst others.
The policy and legal underpinning of the roadmap is the 2001 National Electric Power Policy and the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 (EPSRA) while the Roadmap now provides an (updated) policy and implementation approach. The fact that it took four years for the 2001 policy to become law in 2005, and another five years for effective implementation of the law to commence suggests the existence of strong vested interests determined to perpetuate the status quo. Interestingly the power sector labour unions chose to go on strike two days before the launch of the road map, in spite of the government’s release of N57billion to pay the arrears of payments demanded by them, confirming that the enemies of power reform are yet to give up! The labour unions should not expect any sympathy from Nigerians. As one post on facebook asked, “haven’t they been on strike all the while?” If Nigerians had allowed NITEL workers to stall telecommunications sector deregulation, would we have moved from 400,000 telephone lines to over 100 million in nine years? I view their strike as an act of economic (and perhaps political) sabotage!
The Roadmap will resume implementation of EPSRA by corporatizing the unbundled PHCN companies (constituting boards of directors, appointing company secretaries, auditors etc), privatising the distribution and generating entities and concessioning the transmission company which will remain a government-owned natural monopoly, but under private management and management contracts. The government will cede at least 51 percent of the equity of the generation and distribution companies to core investors, but will adopt a concession approach for the hydro power stations due to the water resources involved in their operation. At the post-launch dialogue, the BPE DG, Ms Bolanle Onagoruwa indicated an audacious intention of completing the privatisations and concessions by May 2011! I endorse the need to complete at least that part of the process next year since much of the groundwork had been done before the process was stalled in 2007.
The Roadmap clearly envisages a private-sector driven power sector. There is no sensible alternative to this approach if you note that Nigeria as at August 2010 only generates 3,804 MW of power for 150 million people contrasted with South Africa which generates 40,000 MW (50 million population) and Brazil (100,000 MW for 201 million people). Nigeria’s per capita electricity consumption is thus 3 percent of South Africa and 7 percent of Brazil! The vision 20: 2020 target of 40,000 MW according to the Roadmap requires annual investment of $3.5billion for the next ten years!!! Beyond finance, we also know our experience with value-for-money, managerial incentives and competence, and service delivery in the public sector. The cost of alternative power generation in financial and environmental terms, and the opportunity cost in terms of manufacturing output, jobs, industrialisation and quality of life of the present power deficit, is a major hindrance to development.
In order to encourage private investment, the president proposes to improve tariffs, establish a government-guaranteed bulk purchaser of electricity to carry out contract management and bulk trading until the industry develops its own settlement, accounting, managerial and governance mechanisms and government will also offer credit enhancements to simulate investment. Pricing and investment incentives will be offered for gas sector investments as well. The government seeks to improve service delivery, reduce aggregate distribution losses, and improve collection efficiency in the interim. The president also promised to immediately reconstitute the board of the regulator, Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). And government will ensure speedy completion of NIPP, PHCN and IPP power projects as well as repairs of existing infrastructure. All these measures are expected to yield about 7,000MW of power by 2012 and 14,000MW by December 2013. We are holding our breath!
To be fair, there are indeed signs of strong commitment by the regime to solve this power conundrum once and for all. The implementation mechanism is one such indicator. Consistent with his decision to take direct responsibility for the power ministry, President Jonathan personally chairs the Presidential Action Committee on Power (PACP) which includes the Vice-President, Secretary to Government of the Federation, Head of Service, Ministers of Finance, Petroleum Resources and National Planning, Minister of State for Power, CBN Governor and the Special Adviser on Power, Professor Barth Nnaji. Professor Nnaji heads the Presidential Task Force whose membership includes the Permanent Secretary in the Power Ministry, NNPC Group Managing Director, DG Bureau of Public Enterprises, DG Bureau of Public Procurement, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Special Projects and selected CEOs of PHCN unbundled entities amongst others.
The policy and legal underpinning of the roadmap is the 2001 National Electric Power Policy and the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 (EPSRA) while the Roadmap now provides an (updated) policy and implementation approach. The fact that it took four years for the 2001 policy to become law in 2005, and another five years for effective implementation of the law to commence suggests the existence of strong vested interests determined to perpetuate the status quo. Interestingly the power sector labour unions chose to go on strike two days before the launch of the road map, in spite of the government’s release of N57billion to pay the arrears of payments demanded by them, confirming that the enemies of power reform are yet to give up! The labour unions should not expect any sympathy from Nigerians. As one post on facebook asked, “haven’t they been on strike all the while?” If Nigerians had allowed NITEL workers to stall telecommunications sector deregulation, would we have moved from 400,000 telephone lines to over 100 million in nine years? I view their strike as an act of economic (and perhaps political) sabotage!
The Roadmap will resume implementation of EPSRA by corporatizing the unbundled PHCN companies (constituting boards of directors, appointing company secretaries, auditors etc), privatising the distribution and generating entities and concessioning the transmission company which will remain a government-owned natural monopoly, but under private management and management contracts. The government will cede at least 51 percent of the equity of the generation and distribution companies to core investors, but will adopt a concession approach for the hydro power stations due to the water resources involved in their operation. At the post-launch dialogue, the BPE DG, Ms Bolanle Onagoruwa indicated an audacious intention of completing the privatisations and concessions by May 2011! I endorse the need to complete at least that part of the process next year since much of the groundwork had been done before the process was stalled in 2007.
The Roadmap clearly envisages a private-sector driven power sector. There is no sensible alternative to this approach if you note that Nigeria as at August 2010 only generates 3,804 MW of power for 150 million people contrasted with South Africa which generates 40,000 MW (50 million population) and Brazil (100,000 MW for 201 million people). Nigeria’s per capita electricity consumption is thus 3 percent of South Africa and 7 percent of Brazil! The vision 20: 2020 target of 40,000 MW according to the Roadmap requires annual investment of $3.5billion for the next ten years!!! Beyond finance, we also know our experience with value-for-money, managerial incentives and competence, and service delivery in the public sector. The cost of alternative power generation in financial and environmental terms, and the opportunity cost in terms of manufacturing output, jobs, industrialisation and quality of life of the present power deficit, is a major hindrance to development.
In order to encourage private investment, the president proposes to improve tariffs, establish a government-guaranteed bulk purchaser of electricity to carry out contract management and bulk trading until the industry develops its own settlement, accounting, managerial and governance mechanisms and government will also offer credit enhancements to simulate investment. Pricing and investment incentives will be offered for gas sector investments as well. The government seeks to improve service delivery, reduce aggregate distribution losses, and improve collection efficiency in the interim. The president also promised to immediately reconstitute the board of the regulator, Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). And government will ensure speedy completion of NIPP, PHCN and IPP power projects as well as repairs of existing infrastructure. All these measures are expected to yield about 7,000MW of power by 2012 and 14,000MW by December 2013. We are holding our breath!
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