It is not easy to decide if Wikileaks and its leader Julian Assange are heros or villains? I support freedom of information, but is such freedom absolute or subject to some restraints or limits? Can international diplomacy, war, intelligence operations, multilateral cooperation and management of the modern corporation, be carried out in an environment in which all internal deliberations of diplomats, military commanders, intelligence agencies, multilateral organisations such as the United Nations, UNICEF or World Bank, and multinational corporations are liable to be splashed over the internet? As families and individuals, can we countenance a situation in which our private conversations with family members are splashed over public media?
On the other hand, isn’t it good for Nigerians to confirm some of our suspicions about the activities of some of our multinational corporations such as Julius Berger, Shell, Pfizer and others? Isn’t it nice that some of the stories which would have remained in the realm of speculation and deduction now have some credence-the things we wrote in our columns about say the provincial character of the Yar’adua administration; the rumours we heard about our erstwhile Attorney-General, Michael Aondoakaa’s penchant for demanding payment for official services; the allegations of corruption right at the top of the Yar’adua regime reaching according to US embassy officials right to first lady, Turai Yar’adua, Chief Economic Adviser, Tanimu Yakubu and Agriculture Minister, Sayaddi Abba Ruma. Now at least, these people have an obligation to deny the Wikileaks allegations or perhaps take them up with the US embassy? In short hasn’t wikileaks advanced the course of good governance and anti-corruption in Nigeria by these leaks?
These are the complex questions that the whole world will have to answer in the post-Wikileaks world! Surely, there are no easy answers. I would like diplomats to continue to offer accurate (and therefore sometimes unpleasant from the point of view of the subject) descriptions and evaluations of world leaders and other international actors in order that their nations can take the right decisions. If diplomats know that their vivid descriptions could one day show up in an internet blogsite, wouldn’t they circumscribe their communications? As some have pointed out, could Wikileaks inadvertently lead to a less-open and therefore less-transparent world as companies, organisations and nations carry out more and more of their internal decision-making orally rather than through diplomatic cables or fully-minuted meetings?
Concerning Nigeria, quite frankly beyond the corroboration, there is nothing that Wikileaks has revealed that should shock any observant Nigerian! Who would be surprised that Julius Berger flew the sick Umaru Yar’adua from Germany to Saudi Arabia? Didn’t they provide logistical support even for Sani Abacha’s self-perpetuation scheme? Why would anyone be surprised that Shell and the international oil companies would be dissatisfied with the initial draft of the petroleum industry bill, and would seek to improve the draft towards their own interests? Is that not what they have been doing since oil was discovered in Nigeria? Did the Nigerian government think Shell was a global do-gooder and Father Christmas when it agreed to second at its own expense several of its senior staff to our critical ministries and departments? Are there any enlightened Nigerians who are unaware of the role the British embassy played in pre-civil war Nigeria and which the US embassy played since then? Do we not know the roles played by US officials in “resolving” the “June 12” crisis? Is it strange to anyone that the US (and perhaps the EU as well) stressed their unwillingness to provide further bilateral or multilateral assistance to INEC if the discredited Professor Maurice Iwu remained its chair? For me, the really troubling revelation was the willingness of Pfizer to engage in dirty tricks and actual blackmail in order to compel Attorney-General Aondoakaa to back-off on his intended prosecution of the company.
With respect to President Goodluck Jonathan, I actually think the revelations cast him in better light than many critics have pointed out. As one newspaper analysis acknowledged, he comes across as sincere, committed to the national interest, statesmanly and not a desperate, self-seeking, politician like many of his contemporaries. When he acknowledges that he was not the best-qualified person for the vice-presidency in 2007 that is simply a statement of fact, but shows him off as high on emotional intelligence with a tendency to realistic self-assessment and self-deprecating nature. Contrary to what many Nigerian politicians believe, humility is a virtue, not a vice! While his assertion that he was selected to placate the Niger-Delta represents geo-political reality, his desire to focus on issues transcending the region casts him as a nationalist, rather than a sectional leader.
And of course, his comments about his level of experience were probably true in 2007 when he became the Vice-President. Surely since then the President has shown political dexterity in triangulating through the tension of the Yar’adua power vacuum and coming out with Nigeria in one piece. And since then Jonathan has consolidated his hold over the federal executive council, the military and security agencies and over large parts of the political space. What is interesting is to read the US ambassador’s mind as she continues to interact with Jonathan and concludes that perhaps it would not be a bad thing if he became Nigeria’s substantive president!
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
The Asiwaju Phenomenon
Some analysts are ambivalent about Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former Lagos State Governor and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) grandmaster. He has been embroiled in the rough and tumble of Nigerian politics such that it may be difficult to extricate him from the associated deal making, graft, cronyism and gerrymandering. While core ACN members revere him, some voters, intellectuals and civil society may resent the perception that he almost single-handedly selects majority of ACN candidates for elected and appointive officers. The suspicion that he and/or his loyalists may consider dispensing with popular Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola upsets many, especially non-career politicians. The old controversies about his education, background and EFCC/US legal problems lurk in some minds.
I can understand that ambivalence. On one hand, in both elections Tinubu contested as Alliance for Democracy (AD) governorship candidate, I voted for him and legislative candidates presented by the parties. Incidentally I also voted for Tinubu as Senator during the Babangida transition.I supported Fashola, his nominee for the governorship in 2007. Ideologically I consider myself a progressive social democrat and endorse the focus on education, health, urban mass transit, infrastructure and social investment, the traditional AG/UPN/SDP/AD/ACN platform. And I have always recognised especially after Obasanjo’s sleight-of-hand against the AD in 2003 that Tinubu was the sole force that could roll-back the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) undemocratic control of Yoruba land, especially during the Yar’adua Presidency when the South-West became de facto political orphans!
But I was also concerned that ACN has not sufficiently distinguished itself from the PDP and ANPP-lack of internal democracy; corruption and abuse of office; electoral malpractices; and failure to institute true people-oriented politics and governance are unfortunately common to all our major political parties. In my view, while PDP clearly did not win elections in the South-West in 2003 and 2007, it got away with stealing power because the AD leadership had taken the voters for granted. Majority of AD governments were incompetent, complacent, arrogant and uninspiring thus providing space to the PDP.
With current developments, we must all re-evaluate the Bola Tinubu phenomenon. Since his entry into politics, Tinubu has exercised decisive influence on his environment. I recall a brother who participated in the Sarumi faction during the tumultuous Sarumi/Agbalajobi battles in the Lagos State Social Democratic Party (SDP), always spoke about a certain Bola Tinubu’s whose entry galvanised the group and strengthened the faction’s hand. Tinubu was subsequently elected to the Senate in 1992 reportedly with the largest votes nationwide and became one of the most influential senators as Chairman of the powerful omnibus Banking, Finance, Appropriations and Currency Committee. Another brother who attended the SDP convention at which Chief MKO Abiola was chosen as presidential candidate in 1993 spoke about a hyperactive and ubiquitous Senator from Lagos whose presence could not be missed!
Tinubu subsequently became a pillar of the “June 12 Movement” which sought to actualise Abiola’s annulled June 12 mandate and later the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) which fought Abacha’s dictatorship. He was a foremost NADECO strategist and leader-in-exile and was compensated by the NADECO/Afenifere leadership which formed the Alliance for Democracy (AD) as Lagos State Governor in 1999. To Tinubu’s credit, he has always seemed comfortable in the midst of intellectuals and accomplished professionals, putting together a cabinet which included Yemi Osinbajo, Olawale Edun, Yemi Cardoso, Dr Leke Pitan, Dele Alake, Tunji Bello, Dr Adebayo Adewusi etc. Perhaps it is partly access to robust quality debate and strategic advice that accounts for his administration’s policy initiatives, his political survival and the ACN’s recent successes.
Tinubu took on many political battles-quarrels with his deputies-Kofo Bucknor-Akerele and Femi Pedro, and the Afenifere leadership, who then opposed his re-election in 2003 through Ganiyu Dawodu and the Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA); since 2003 he has sponsored friends and associates seeking political positions throughout the South-West; unending political and legal battles with Obasanjo and the PDP; taking on the responsibility of building a national opposition party; and his choice of Fashola as successor angered some wealthy supporters who sponsored Jimi Agbaje to run instead. These activities may have distracted his administration from accomplishing its ambitious development goals, but they are now clearly bearing fruit!
Fashola has vindicated his judgment; relentless battles to regain the South-West from PDP has seen Kayode Fayemi and Rauf Aregbesola take over in Ekiti and Osun States respectively; the take-over of Adams Oshiomole (ACN) and Segun Mimiko (Labour Party) in Edo and Ondo States bear his imprint; PDP is now effectively a minority party in Yoruba land holding vulnerably to Oyo and Ogun States; Tinubu is believed to be aiding DPP’s efforts to win the Sokoto governorship through the courts; and ACN is gaining membership across the country. Tinubu is now undoubtedly the pre-eminent political leader in Yoruba land and effective leader of opposition nationally, in effect laying claim to the mantle of Awolowo!
How will Tinubu use this power? Will he mold ACN into a truly progressive, social democratic alternative to the PDP? Will he be an enduring transformational leader, a transitional or situational figure or tragic hero? Will his protégés deliver governance that differentiates ACN from others and attracts other Nigerians to the party? Will he make the right choices in 2011 or might he make grave strategic miscalculations? How will history record him? Whatever you think about him, there must be something about this Bola Tinubu!!!
I can understand that ambivalence. On one hand, in both elections Tinubu contested as Alliance for Democracy (AD) governorship candidate, I voted for him and legislative candidates presented by the parties. Incidentally I also voted for Tinubu as Senator during the Babangida transition.I supported Fashola, his nominee for the governorship in 2007. Ideologically I consider myself a progressive social democrat and endorse the focus on education, health, urban mass transit, infrastructure and social investment, the traditional AG/UPN/SDP/AD/ACN platform. And I have always recognised especially after Obasanjo’s sleight-of-hand against the AD in 2003 that Tinubu was the sole force that could roll-back the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) undemocratic control of Yoruba land, especially during the Yar’adua Presidency when the South-West became de facto political orphans!
But I was also concerned that ACN has not sufficiently distinguished itself from the PDP and ANPP-lack of internal democracy; corruption and abuse of office; electoral malpractices; and failure to institute true people-oriented politics and governance are unfortunately common to all our major political parties. In my view, while PDP clearly did not win elections in the South-West in 2003 and 2007, it got away with stealing power because the AD leadership had taken the voters for granted. Majority of AD governments were incompetent, complacent, arrogant and uninspiring thus providing space to the PDP.
With current developments, we must all re-evaluate the Bola Tinubu phenomenon. Since his entry into politics, Tinubu has exercised decisive influence on his environment. I recall a brother who participated in the Sarumi faction during the tumultuous Sarumi/Agbalajobi battles in the Lagos State Social Democratic Party (SDP), always spoke about a certain Bola Tinubu’s whose entry galvanised the group and strengthened the faction’s hand. Tinubu was subsequently elected to the Senate in 1992 reportedly with the largest votes nationwide and became one of the most influential senators as Chairman of the powerful omnibus Banking, Finance, Appropriations and Currency Committee. Another brother who attended the SDP convention at which Chief MKO Abiola was chosen as presidential candidate in 1993 spoke about a hyperactive and ubiquitous Senator from Lagos whose presence could not be missed!
Tinubu subsequently became a pillar of the “June 12 Movement” which sought to actualise Abiola’s annulled June 12 mandate and later the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) which fought Abacha’s dictatorship. He was a foremost NADECO strategist and leader-in-exile and was compensated by the NADECO/Afenifere leadership which formed the Alliance for Democracy (AD) as Lagos State Governor in 1999. To Tinubu’s credit, he has always seemed comfortable in the midst of intellectuals and accomplished professionals, putting together a cabinet which included Yemi Osinbajo, Olawale Edun, Yemi Cardoso, Dr Leke Pitan, Dele Alake, Tunji Bello, Dr Adebayo Adewusi etc. Perhaps it is partly access to robust quality debate and strategic advice that accounts for his administration’s policy initiatives, his political survival and the ACN’s recent successes.
Tinubu took on many political battles-quarrels with his deputies-Kofo Bucknor-Akerele and Femi Pedro, and the Afenifere leadership, who then opposed his re-election in 2003 through Ganiyu Dawodu and the Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA); since 2003 he has sponsored friends and associates seeking political positions throughout the South-West; unending political and legal battles with Obasanjo and the PDP; taking on the responsibility of building a national opposition party; and his choice of Fashola as successor angered some wealthy supporters who sponsored Jimi Agbaje to run instead. These activities may have distracted his administration from accomplishing its ambitious development goals, but they are now clearly bearing fruit!
Fashola has vindicated his judgment; relentless battles to regain the South-West from PDP has seen Kayode Fayemi and Rauf Aregbesola take over in Ekiti and Osun States respectively; the take-over of Adams Oshiomole (ACN) and Segun Mimiko (Labour Party) in Edo and Ondo States bear his imprint; PDP is now effectively a minority party in Yoruba land holding vulnerably to Oyo and Ogun States; Tinubu is believed to be aiding DPP’s efforts to win the Sokoto governorship through the courts; and ACN is gaining membership across the country. Tinubu is now undoubtedly the pre-eminent political leader in Yoruba land and effective leader of opposition nationally, in effect laying claim to the mantle of Awolowo!
How will Tinubu use this power? Will he mold ACN into a truly progressive, social democratic alternative to the PDP? Will he be an enduring transformational leader, a transitional or situational figure or tragic hero? Will his protégés deliver governance that differentiates ACN from others and attracts other Nigerians to the party? Will he make the right choices in 2011 or might he make grave strategic miscalculations? How will history record him? Whatever you think about him, there must be something about this Bola Tinubu!!!
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
The Atiku Consensus
The “Northern Political Leaders Forum” (NPLF) led by Mallam Adamu Ciroma did not surprise me with their choice of Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as their “Northern consensus candidate” to challenge President Goodluck Jonathan for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential ticket in 2011. I recall a senior editor friend mentioning some weeks back that the NPLF was an Atiku stratagem to outwit his likely Northern rivals and Jonathan in grabbing Nigeria’s Presidency. My own review of most of the so-called “wise men” charged with selecting the NPLF’s candidate showed in most cases a clear link with Atiku. The Forum’s selection criteria also seemed designed to produce only one outcome-Atiku’s candidacy. The surprise is that perennial National Security Adviser General Aliyu Gusau, outgoing Kwara State Governor and Chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum Dr Bukola Saraki and particularly ex-President Ibrahim Babangida (IBB), fell for it! Has the “maradona” magic been lost or was it in reality a “maradona” myth?
I hope the NPLF’s consensus marriage will live happily ever after, even though quite frankly I don’t expect it to! Ciroma and his colleagues adopted a model of leadership selection previously used by the Afenifere which in the run up to the 1999 elections picked Chief Olu Falae over Afenifere Deputy Leader, Chief Bola Ige. The parallels are striking-an ethnic grouping (NPLF/Afenifere) empanels a committee which purports to pick a candidate for a nationally-registered political party (PDP/Alliance for Democracy-AD). The aspirants are regional giants one of whom (IBB/Ige) is entitled to regard himself as presumptive nominee by virtue of seniority, long relationship with the selectors and entrenchment within the ethnic power structure. The “wise men” however select a “junior” aspirant (Atiku/Falae) and the perceived betrayal leads to accusations of treachery, bitterness and distrust which destroy the ethnic grouping’s internal cohesion. That exercise sowed the seeds for the end of Afenifere as we knew it. Let’s hope the NPLF’s fate will be different!
The other consequence was that the rest of the country declined to accept the Afenifere’s choice as national president been tainted irretrievably with an ethnic brush. President Jonathan quite wisely has started reminding the nation to “support the Nigerian consensus candidate” instead of accepting a “Northern consensus” or even the more narrow “NPLF Consensus” since it is probable that the choice of Atiku (unlike Afenifere’s choice of Falae) may not command unanimous Northern support. The NPLF’s process may also be strategically inferior to Afenifere’s in that Afenifere controlled the AD and already had an understanding with then All Peoples Party (APP) now All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) that AD’s candidate would be the AD/APP alliance’s joint presidential candidate. The NPLF does not control the PDP and their nominee will yet have to overcome an incumbent president (and a Northern Vice-President) to secure the party ticket!
Having said that I hope the Goodluck-Sambo team does not overdo their jubilation over what they view as the NPLF’s sub-optimal selection of Atiku. IBB may have been formidable due to his national network of relationships; and a contest against Saraki may have been particularly unpredictable due to his hold over the Governors; but Atiku is no less formidable. Atiku has a vast political network; he is a pragmatic political strategist; and can easily build a nationwide organisation. He is good at cutting back-room political deals and while he and his Yar’adua Group have never quite built strong grassroots popularity, they have always been successful at intra-party scheming and manoeuvring. That is why General Yar’adua’s Peoples Front outwitted the Progressives within the Social Democratic Party (SDP) during the Babangida transition and the renamed Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) led by Atiku after Yar’adua’s death, sidelined other groups in the PDP until the quarrel between Obasanjo and Atiku weakened the PDM base.
Atiku’s disadvantages-perceived lack of principle and consistency; and unending allegations of corruption are likely to be more harmful in a general election rather than intra-party primaries. Some may even argue that having a reputation for corruption may in fact be an advantage in the PDP primaries!!! If I were President Jonathan and his campaign strategists, we would cut short our celebrations, return to our war room and begin to reach out to actual convention delegates. Nevertheless while the NPLF route has strengthened Atiku’s chances as a PDP aspirant, it may have weakened his long-term positioning as a potential Nigerian president. Why should the school teacher in Oshogbo vote for Northern consensus? Why should a fisherman in Warri or Calabar accept that the Nigerian President should be selected by nine Northerners? Is the Middle-belt civil servant or Southern Kaduna farmer likely to endorse this choice? What stake has the lawyer or medical doctor in Enugu in this choice? And why should Northerners outside the NPLF accept its self-appointed role as leadership selectors for the whole region or the country?
The fear in some quarters that the NPLF is merely using the zoning argument in seeking to retain hegemony has been aided by reports of NPLF leader, Mallam Adamu Ciroma’s role as Chairman of the Governing Council of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU). Ciroma apparently sought to prevent Professor Andrew Nok (a Northerner from a minority area), who came clearly tops in the selection process for ABU’s Vice Chancellorship from been appointed in favour of an unqualified person from his own ethnic group. Can such an individual be trusted to select Nigeria’s president?
I hope the NPLF’s consensus marriage will live happily ever after, even though quite frankly I don’t expect it to! Ciroma and his colleagues adopted a model of leadership selection previously used by the Afenifere which in the run up to the 1999 elections picked Chief Olu Falae over Afenifere Deputy Leader, Chief Bola Ige. The parallels are striking-an ethnic grouping (NPLF/Afenifere) empanels a committee which purports to pick a candidate for a nationally-registered political party (PDP/Alliance for Democracy-AD). The aspirants are regional giants one of whom (IBB/Ige) is entitled to regard himself as presumptive nominee by virtue of seniority, long relationship with the selectors and entrenchment within the ethnic power structure. The “wise men” however select a “junior” aspirant (Atiku/Falae) and the perceived betrayal leads to accusations of treachery, bitterness and distrust which destroy the ethnic grouping’s internal cohesion. That exercise sowed the seeds for the end of Afenifere as we knew it. Let’s hope the NPLF’s fate will be different!
The other consequence was that the rest of the country declined to accept the Afenifere’s choice as national president been tainted irretrievably with an ethnic brush. President Jonathan quite wisely has started reminding the nation to “support the Nigerian consensus candidate” instead of accepting a “Northern consensus” or even the more narrow “NPLF Consensus” since it is probable that the choice of Atiku (unlike Afenifere’s choice of Falae) may not command unanimous Northern support. The NPLF’s process may also be strategically inferior to Afenifere’s in that Afenifere controlled the AD and already had an understanding with then All Peoples Party (APP) now All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) that AD’s candidate would be the AD/APP alliance’s joint presidential candidate. The NPLF does not control the PDP and their nominee will yet have to overcome an incumbent president (and a Northern Vice-President) to secure the party ticket!
Having said that I hope the Goodluck-Sambo team does not overdo their jubilation over what they view as the NPLF’s sub-optimal selection of Atiku. IBB may have been formidable due to his national network of relationships; and a contest against Saraki may have been particularly unpredictable due to his hold over the Governors; but Atiku is no less formidable. Atiku has a vast political network; he is a pragmatic political strategist; and can easily build a nationwide organisation. He is good at cutting back-room political deals and while he and his Yar’adua Group have never quite built strong grassroots popularity, they have always been successful at intra-party scheming and manoeuvring. That is why General Yar’adua’s Peoples Front outwitted the Progressives within the Social Democratic Party (SDP) during the Babangida transition and the renamed Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) led by Atiku after Yar’adua’s death, sidelined other groups in the PDP until the quarrel between Obasanjo and Atiku weakened the PDM base.
Atiku’s disadvantages-perceived lack of principle and consistency; and unending allegations of corruption are likely to be more harmful in a general election rather than intra-party primaries. Some may even argue that having a reputation for corruption may in fact be an advantage in the PDP primaries!!! If I were President Jonathan and his campaign strategists, we would cut short our celebrations, return to our war room and begin to reach out to actual convention delegates. Nevertheless while the NPLF route has strengthened Atiku’s chances as a PDP aspirant, it may have weakened his long-term positioning as a potential Nigerian president. Why should the school teacher in Oshogbo vote for Northern consensus? Why should a fisherman in Warri or Calabar accept that the Nigerian President should be selected by nine Northerners? Is the Middle-belt civil servant or Southern Kaduna farmer likely to endorse this choice? What stake has the lawyer or medical doctor in Enugu in this choice? And why should Northerners outside the NPLF accept its self-appointed role as leadership selectors for the whole region or the country?
The fear in some quarters that the NPLF is merely using the zoning argument in seeking to retain hegemony has been aided by reports of NPLF leader, Mallam Adamu Ciroma’s role as Chairman of the Governing Council of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU). Ciroma apparently sought to prevent Professor Andrew Nok (a Northerner from a minority area), who came clearly tops in the selection process for ABU’s Vice Chancellorship from been appointed in favour of an unqualified person from his own ethnic group. Can such an individual be trusted to select Nigeria’s president?
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