Wednesday, February 27, 2013

The Emerging APC

If you google “APC”, you will find references to “armoured personnel carriers” in a military context; the brand “American Power Conversion” owned by Schneider Electric which provides power protection products and services including UPS and surge suppressors; and a prominent political party in Sierra Leone, amongst others. The emerging “All Progressives Congress” in Nigeria thus seems to be in good company, at least in terms of lexicon! As an opposition party poised to take on Nigeria’s exclusive ruling party so far in this republic, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), APC, however, faces a more daunting challenge. Since return to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria’s democracy has recorded few successes and many failures. The major successes relate to telecommunications industry transformation which commenced in 2001; the economic reforms of 2003-2006 which culminated in the Paris Club debt write-off; enactment of the Freedom of Information Act; and the relatively fair elections of 2011. On the other hand, there are numerous low points – terrible elections in 2003 and 2007; increasing poverty and unemployment; massive corruption; the absolute erosion of democratic values, even in spite of civil rule; the challenges of power and infrastructure even fifteen years later; shocking levels of crime, insecurity and breakdown of law and order; the Yar’Adua crisis and power vacuum of 2009/2010, etc. The PDP’s report card can earn no better than a low score no matter how considerate one’s judgment. The absence of political competition and its near-total monopoly of power have encouraged sub-optimal performance from the ruling party and raise the imperative for alternative platforms. Unfortunately, until now, the Nigerian opposition has been complicit in the PDP’s mismanagement of Nigeria’s democracy and development – the voluntary and assisted suicide of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) which couldn’t decide whether it was in alliance with Obasanjo’s PDP government or it was an opposition party, and paid a mortal price for its consequently blurred identity; the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), formerly APP, which consistently acted to destroy its own fortunes and whittled its holding from nine to three states (its chairmen and leaders, as well as its elected governors and legislators have regularly acted as agents of the PDP!); even the Action Congress (AC), later Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), seemed also to suffer from a “PDP complex” acting as a default platform for disaffected PDP members (its presidential candidate and running mates in 2007 and 2011 as well as a large number of its governorship, Senate and House of Representatives candidates in the last two elections have come from the PDP). The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) seemingly conspired to subvert its own chances such that from a possibility of winning up to seven or more states in 2011, it ended up with only one! The incipient APC, however, appears to be the first serious challenge to the PDP’s hegemony – if the planned merger of the ACN, CPC, ANPP and elements from the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) is successfully consummated and the emerging entity is internally cohesive, prospects are that the PDP will face its toughest battle yet in 2015. It would be the first time the PDP would be competing against a party with a national outlook drawing from ACN’s South-West base, ANPP’s North-East core, and CPC’s North-West following and complemented by a South-East faction backed by an incumbent governor. The coalition may also have strengths in Benue and Nasarawa in the Middle-Belt and Edo and Akwa Ibom in the South-South. Moreover, the ACN, which has sought to facilitate the opposition meeting of minds, has appeared willing to foster the spirit of give and take required to create such a merger. Of course, the merger is far from being a done deal! Nigeria’s democratic history is littered with attempts to create a “progressive” alternative to our conservative ruling parties – United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) in the first republic; Progressive Parties Alliance (PPA) in the second; and the most recent failed efforts by the ACN and CPC to cobble together an alliance or merger to fight the 2011 election which effectively foreclosed the opposition’s challenge. On the positive side, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) under which M.K.O. Abiola won the aborted June 1993 elections was a “merger” of forces which resemble today’s APC. The only difference is that their coming together was forced by the Babangida military dictatorship which created two parties, the SDP and National Republican Convention (NRC). There will yet be fights over control of party structures and positions; and there will be severe jostling over selection of electoral candidates; the party runs the risk of presenting controversial candidates and inheriting voter prejudices and perceptions; and does the APC have strategic space to make merit-based choices at the presidential level, in which case there are some obvious candidates that should be on the ticket? The emerging party will face strenuous efforts at sabotage, from outside and within; and it could itself self-destruct! On the other hand, it stands to benefit from the developing crisis within the PDP (although leaving PDP may prove more difficult than people imagine) and the exhaustion of PDP goodwill with the people; but if its leaders manage to create a viable APC, they would have made a historic contribution to Nigeria’s political development.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Nigeria's AFCON Victory

I was one of the many Nigerians who did not give the Super Eagles any chances at the recently concluded 29thAfrican Cup of Nations (AFCON) in South Africa, for many reasons – I did not think the Super Eagles coach, Stephen Keshi, was a good coach (my favourites were Samson Siasia and particularly Sunday Oliseh, whose analysis showed better technical depth); I wasn’t impressed with the team’s preparation for the competition; I believed that, consistent with his antecedents in Mali and Togo where he had previously worked as national football coach, Keshi had a penchant for having disputes with the better players in his teams (Emmanuel Adebayo in Togo and I believe Seidu Keita in Mali) over ethics issues, a syndrome which was being repeated with Osaze Odemwingie, Obafemi Martins and Taye Taiwo who were controversially excluded from the team, while Sola Ameobi curiously withdrew. I, however, liked the fact that Keshi included home-based players in the team.When the competition started, I watched the Eagles first match on TV and saw the Burkinabe equalise our single goal advantage in a display that saw Keshi act more like a spectator than a coach! He could not fashion a tactical approach to defend the goal advantage for just ten to fifteen minutes, which reinforced my view about Keshi’s technical competences, or lack thereof. After the draw with Zambia, I came to the conclusion, like most Nigerians, that the team was going nowhere! I happened to be in South Africa during the third group match with Ethiopia, on separate business, and watched the first half in my hotel room and the second in the restaurant. Again, it took the grace of God and two moments of Victor Moses’ brilliance and confidence for us to win with two penalty goals. Up to that point, I considered very few players – Moses, Mikel Obi, Emmanuel Emenike, and goalkeeper and real rather than notional team captain, Vincent Enyeama – as worthy of their place in the team. So when Nigeria qualified to meet the all-star Cote d’Ivoire side with Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou, Yaya Toure, Cheik Tiote, Gervinho and Kolo Toure, amongst others, I did not consider the prospect of Nigeria’s victory a realistic one. And I was not alone. The global media and not a few Nigerians, and as we have heard, even the Nigerian Football Federation, presumed it was time for Keshi and his boys to pack their bags. However, my current favourite Nigerian player, Mikel Obi, gave me hope when he proclaimed his readiness for a midfield “war” with Yaya Toure, which he duly proceeded to win on match day. Indeed, in my view, and as enlightened commentators on Supersports expected, Mikel turned out to be the best player in the competition. The authoritative and compelling manner of Nigeria’s 2-1 win over Cote d’Ivoire meant all bets were off, and from no-hoppers, Nigeria had become the cup favourites! We then proceeded to a similarly dominant victory over Mail and the cup beckoned as we met Burkina Faso for a second time, but this time in the final. At this point, it was difficult to conceive of Nigeria losing in the final to the Burkinabe, which is exactly what happened as star discovery, Sunday Mba’s goal made the difference and Nigeria were African champions for a third time. Whatever I thought of Keshi’s abilities (and I have not necessarily changed my assessment), you can’t argue with success. At least for the time being, Keshi has earned the right to boast! One member of the team who can’t say the same is notional Captain Joseph Yobo. He was clearly out of his depths and was supposed to have been omitted from playing, but for some curious reason, Keshi persisted in bringing Yobo on ten minutes to the end of every game. Yet Yobo was so uncharitable that he wouldn’t allow the other players hold the championship cup once it was won. A more charitable “captain” would have readily shared the moment with his colleagues, particularly Enyeama, Mikel, Moses, Mba, Emenike, Efe Ambrose and Kenneth Omeruo. Yobo at that moment behaved like a typical Nigerian politician! Nigeria, however, should not let this victory becloud our judgment. The key issues militating against sustainable success of Nigeria’s sports, and specifically football, remain – age cheating should be eliminated from our sports; we should find a model for turning over the financing and management of sports to the private sector and invest in our local leagues, not just as a means of boosting participation in sports, but as an economic strategy to increase employment and reduce poverty; and, concurrently, we must weed corrupt and incompetent administrators out of the federations and bring in those with genuine interest in sports to replace them. The current system in which football clubs are owned by state governments is not sustainable and welds official corruption too closely into our sports. Of course, our current rent-seeking administrators will say there is no alternative to government funding of sports. Don’t listen to them – so said their colleagues in NITEL and NEPA!

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Options for Nigeria

I am thoroughly disappointed that many young Nigerians, in thinking about potential options for Nigeria’s leadership, tend to revert to the history books, and indeed, if it were possible, to museums and even cemeteries. Once you talk about 2015, for instance, the usual names crop up – Muhammadu Buhari (who was head of state 30 years ago and is over 70 years old); Ibrahim Babangida (who ruled for eight years between 1985 and 1993 and left office 20 years ago); Atiku Abubakar (who was Obasanjo’s vice-president and left that office 6 years ago); Aliyu Gusau (a permanent fixture in Nigeria’s security infrastructure since 1966 to date), and similar historical people. There is little attempt to think about leaders for the future rather than men from our past. If these people had offered Nigeria excellent or inspirational leadership in their time, the nostalgia may have been understandable, but the current state of Nigeria is evidence of their collective failure! I propose to suggest that there are many options of a more futuristic hue that Nigeria can examine, instead of this retarded focus on failed leaders of the past. This attempt is more of a long list of possible leadership options rather than a short list of actual contenders. I do not endorse or attempt to endorse anyone, but simply seek to widen our horizon as we move towards 2015. Why, for instance, can’t Babatunde Fashola, Lagos State governor, be a strong contender for president or vice president in 2015? Wouldn’t he by then have had excellent preparation for 8 years as Lagos State governor, and to popular acclaim? That’s apart from being chief of staff for five years and being an accomplished legal practitioner and senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN). Hasn’t Aminu Waziri Tambuwal showed extraordinary leadership in holding together a cross-party coalition in the House of Representatives? Aren’t speakership and leveraging multiple terms in the House strong enough preparation for presidency? (I say this in spite of my disagreement with several positions adopted by the House, so remember these are not endorsements.) We may consider other governors – Ibrahim Shema of Katsina, a legal practitioner and former state attorney-general; Sule Lamido of Jigawa, who has been federal foreign minister, member of the House of Representatives and federal parastatal chairman; Babangida Aliyu of Niger, a former federal permanent secretary; Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom, a former state commissioner; Gabriel Suswan of Benue, who spent 8 years in the House of Representatives; Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso, also a former deputy speaker of the House of Representatives and former federal minister for defence; governor of Rivers State and chairman of Nigerian Governors’ Forum, Rotimi Amaechi, who has done a lot in his state in terms of education, health and transportation infrastructure; Governor Peter Obi of Anambra; former Governor Ahmed Muazu of Bauchi State; and current ANPP chairman, Ogbonnaya Onu. We may also consider former or serving senators – current Secretary to the Government of the Federation and former senate president, Anyim Pius Anyim; Senator Olorunnimbe Mamora, also a former speaker of the Lagos House; Senate President David Mark; Senator Abu Ibrahim; Senator Lawan Shuaibu; Senator Bode Olajumoke, etc. Several federal ministers, past or current, may also be qualified – Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Babatunde Osotimehin and Oby Ezekwesili, most certainly! There are other individuals who could be considered – Jimi Agbaje, a respected politician, pharmacist and civil society leader; or former CBN governor, Chukwuma Soludo. And there are many more! I am sure some of the names mentioned above can offer Nigeria significantly better leadership than those whom we reflexively fall back upon. These younger gentlemen have occupied high offices of state and have had their leadership competences and maturity tested, and by-and-large many have stood up to the test. There are many more distinguished Nigerian men and women from the pool of professors and vice-chancellors, legal practitioners and SANs, retired senior civil servants, corporate CEOs and directors in the business community (Won’t Tony Elumelu, Atedo Peterside, Jim Ovia, Fola Adeola, Jamodu, Aliko Dangote, etc., all be better presidents than Babangida, Atiku or Jonathan?), and the vast number of Nigerian professionals and academics? Nigerians need a new generation of leaders! The leadership class we have had till date was formed between 1966 and 1975. Their mindsets were shaped by the coups and counter-coups of 1966 and the civil war. They keep Nigeria in its past and do not allow the emergence of a new consciousness and identity. Their understanding of policy, economics and development is anchored in the past; even if they struggle to understand the present, they can never project into the future. They cannot relate to the demands of a world driven by technology, the world of Obama, Cameron, Putin; and even in Africa, all their contemporaries are long gone, replaced by younger men in their 40s and 50s. We need a new leadership that has “moved on” beyond primordial differences and historical grudges and divisions. The old has given its best and must now give way, and a new leadership class must be enthroned. Of course, the new leadership will have to, as individuals, earn their place, but let us start examining and testing these not-so-new new leadership so that we can rescue the future from the past!