For more than a decade, the Nigerian state has been in retreat with multiple signs of state failure or even imminent collapse. Communal, ethnic, sectarian and religious riots in Warri, Aguleri-Umuleri, Sagamu, Ife-Modakeke, Andoni, Okrika, Bauchi, Kafanchan, Kaduna, Jos, Maiduguri and other parts of Nigeria were intermittent. The almost complete take-over of the Niger-Delta by so-called “militants”-in reality illiterate or poorly-educated, unemployed, misguided youths who had resorted to criminality partly in protests at state neglect but also for pecuniary sustenance in the absence of proper jobs illustrated state weakness. Outbreaks of religious violence across the North, most recently the “Boko Haram” crisis were recurrent.
The Niger-Delta crisis started with agitations by Ken Saro-Wiwa’s Ogonis against environmental devastation by Shell and Nigeria, but was soon followed by ethnic and communal crises as Urhobos, Itsekiris, Ijaws, Nembe etc fought against each other. Soon pure gangsterism took over as politicians deployed these veterans of inter-communal wars as political thugs and enforcers. In the Niger-Delta states, especially Rivers, Delta and Bayelsa, there was a clear link between violence and victory in the 1999 elections and thereafter. Once the politicians were settled in office, the thugs became autonomous gang leaders and later “militants”. The Nigerian government eventually offered a hastily-conceived “amnesty” basically admitting a balance of power with rag-tag armies of disparate and ill-organised “militant” groups.
Eastern Nigeria became a den of robbers and kidnappers with the Igbo elite abandoning their communities to criminal coalitions of emergency traditional rulers, kidnappers and armed robbers and their informants and watchmen (and women and children) to seek refuge in Abuja, Lagos, Port-Harcourt and Calabar. The two most important commercial centres in the East-Aba and Onitsha lost their vibrancy as banks, petrol stations and even markets closed under the onslaught of criminals. As armed robbers fled Fashola’s security measures in Lagos, they moved to neighbouring Ogun and Oyo states filling the vacuum in governance and policing, raiding banks at will and occasionally perhaps acting as part-time political assassins. In Ibadan, violent road transport workers became the state!
Highways in the North, especially around Kogi, Nasarawa, Abuja and other parts were seized by armed robbers with prominent citizens falling victim. Alhaji Abubakar Rimi died as a result of one such incident. The official response was to engage non-state vigilantes and powerful “medicine men” to keep the roads safe, again demonstrating the impotence of the state. Some years back, the Ajah area of the aspiring Lagos mega-city regularly erupted in urban warfare as “Olumegbon” and contending landowners battled for supremacy with guns, cutlasses, axes and charms usually in broad day light with residents fleeing for their lives and the police keeping a safe distance. Newspaper reports suggest a recent recurrence of the Ajah violence.
There were also more fundamental challenges to the powers of the state-declaration of Sharia by then Zamfara Governor Sani Yerima which spread across eleven states in Northern Nigeria in defiance of the Nigerian Constitution; suspicions that some “militants” and regional elite in the Niger-Delta perhaps desired not just “resource control” but may have been questioning the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as well; “MASSOB” whose name made its strategic intent explicit-“Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra”; the Odua Peoples Conference (OPC) and other “self-determination” groups which in the aftermath of “June 12” and Abacha’s despotism questioned the rationale for Yorubas staying within Nigeria.
In recent times, labour (and even regional irredentists desperate for power to be “rotated” back to their “zone”) regularly threaten to “make the country ungovernable”. Power sector workers are eager to confront state policy and have shut down national electricity supply twice in the last three months. However the biggest act of contempt for the Nigerian state however was the Independence Day bombing, a dangerous escalation of the slide towards anarchy and an ineffective and impotent Nigerian state. However it does appear that the Jonathan administration and the new National Security Adviser, General Andrew Owoye Azazi may have recognised that the rationale for the existence of the Nigerian state is increasingly being lost and the introduction of bombings directed against the state may, if not checked, represent the final chapter in the process of state disempowerment and failure.
The Jonathan Presidency seems to have offered a strong response-routing kidnappers in the East who seized a bus load of school children, ensuring safe release of all the children; subsequent action by the military and police against kidnappers and criminals in eastern Nigeria that has reportedly led to the arrest of over 400 persons; the meticulous manner the State Security Services has been assembling evidence relating to the independence day (and the previously unresolved Warri) bomb blasts and arresting those implicated in these actions; detection of the Iranian armaments and heroine imports and strong security and diplomatic follow-up; and most recently the very successful (so far) military onslaught by the Joint Task Force (JTF) against the revival of “militancy” in the Niger-Delta, wiping out of militant camps, freeing of hostages and the surrender of several militant leaders and their men.
The early signs are that the Jonathan/Azazi/Petinrin/Ihejirika team is surprisingly shaping out as an effective national security team. Is it too soon to hope they can keep up this momentum and restore the powers, effectiveness and credibility of the Nigerian state?
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Obama's "Shellacking"!!!
I did not expect to find “shellacking” in a conventional dictionary so I went online. Dictionary.com defined it as “an utter defeat”, “a sound thrashing” or “to defeat or trounce” while the World English Dictionary notes that it is a mainly US or Canadian slang meaning a “complete defeat” or “sound defeat”. I was subsequently surprised to find my good old New Webster’s Dictionary with essentially the same meaning-“to defeat by a very large margin”! By his own admission, that was what President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats got from the Republicans in the recent US mid-term elections.
It was a stinging chastisement as Republicans picked up (at least) 60 House seats and 6 in the Senate taking the Republican tally to a House majority of 239 displacing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, and narrow minority of 47 in the Senate, to the Democrats 186 and 52 respectively. It is clear that US voters delivered a categorical thumping to Obama who they had elected overwhelmingly just two years earlier. What is not so clear is why? The usual explanation is that it was about jobs and the economy; that US voters always punish incumbents for poor economic conditions; that Obama had done too little to convince voters he would restore jobs and prosperity. I would love to accept this conventional logic, but it just doesn’t seem to me like the whole truth!
I don’t believe American voters are so unsophisticated that they did not appreciate the scale of the economic and financial calamity Obama inherited from the Republicans. Did US voters really expect that the destruction of output, wealth and jobs wrought during the US Great Recession of 2008-2009 could be reversed in just two years? Could the voters have so completely forgotten that Republicans created the mess with their combination of wars, deficits and hands-off deregulation such that in anger, they would return power to the same Republicans? Could US voters be so angry about slow progress towards recovery that they would in effect vote for no progress at all that the new gridlock would lead to? Did Obama’s fundamental actions on economic stimulus, healthcare reform and financial sector regulation count for nothing at all? If this is the whole truth, would it not reflect badly on the utilitarian value of democracy and suggest that the masses may often act against their own enlightened self-interest?
But as I mentioned earlier I am not convinced this was all about jobs and the economy! For one I suspect a major failure of political strategy and communication on the part of the Democrats who appeared tentative, timid and lacking self-assurance as they abandoned the political space to the “Tea Party” onslaught. Obama himself continues in pursuit of his idealistic but elusive America that is neither red nor blue; neither Democratic nor Republican; neither liberal nor conservative. Of course political realities may be different as angry conservatives deployed everything in their vast political and financial arsenal towards undermining and destroying him.
I suspect this was also about campaign finance. The US Supreme Court may have delivered an enduring strategic advantage to the Republicans with the ruling removing caps on corporate political donations. So while individuals, who form the bulk of Democratic donors, have restrictions on their political donations, companies who favour mostly Republicans may make unlimited campaign contributions. That advantage may have had decisive impact on this race, and except that ruling is reversed, future races as well.
Deploying their financial advantage in organisation and advertising, the Republicans and their Tea Party allies successfully but unjustifiably demonised Obama as an anti-business liberal engaged in wealth re-distribution and seeking to over-tax and over-regulate businesses; a socialist who wanted to nationalise the economy and spend his way to recovery; and a statist who through healthcare and other policies would foster big government and lead a government take-over of citizens’ rights and lives. All these supported with barely-disguised racism and “we want our America back” posturing from the pulpit, conservative rallies and Fox News Channel! The Democrats never quite rose to the propaganda challenge and failed to summon the energy and enthusiasm to confront Republican and Tea Party scaremongering. Unfortunately Obama was professorial rather than engaging. He assumed that the facts would speak for him, and that reason would prevail over disinformation and fear, and failed to connect at an empathic level with independents and even Democrats.
I suspect right-wing demonization of Obama proved devastating due to a “pre-existing condition”-American voters were themselves increasingly unsure of Obama on the issue of “American values” even if they couldn’t say so to pollsters. What did Obama really believe in? Who is he? Is he an American or Kenyan? A Christian or Muslim? A centrist or far-left liberal? Why does he seem overtly focused on the Islamic world? Why does he support the “Ground Zero” mosque? Why did he bow waist-level before the Saudi King? Will he abandon Israel under pressure? Is he determined to elevate the place of gays and lesbians in US society? I suspect that not being sure of where Obama seeks to lead US society on these “cultural” issues, American Republicans and Independents voted to impose restraints on his power. And many Democrats, acquiesced by staying at home!
It was a stinging chastisement as Republicans picked up (at least) 60 House seats and 6 in the Senate taking the Republican tally to a House majority of 239 displacing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, and narrow minority of 47 in the Senate, to the Democrats 186 and 52 respectively. It is clear that US voters delivered a categorical thumping to Obama who they had elected overwhelmingly just two years earlier. What is not so clear is why? The usual explanation is that it was about jobs and the economy; that US voters always punish incumbents for poor economic conditions; that Obama had done too little to convince voters he would restore jobs and prosperity. I would love to accept this conventional logic, but it just doesn’t seem to me like the whole truth!
I don’t believe American voters are so unsophisticated that they did not appreciate the scale of the economic and financial calamity Obama inherited from the Republicans. Did US voters really expect that the destruction of output, wealth and jobs wrought during the US Great Recession of 2008-2009 could be reversed in just two years? Could the voters have so completely forgotten that Republicans created the mess with their combination of wars, deficits and hands-off deregulation such that in anger, they would return power to the same Republicans? Could US voters be so angry about slow progress towards recovery that they would in effect vote for no progress at all that the new gridlock would lead to? Did Obama’s fundamental actions on economic stimulus, healthcare reform and financial sector regulation count for nothing at all? If this is the whole truth, would it not reflect badly on the utilitarian value of democracy and suggest that the masses may often act against their own enlightened self-interest?
But as I mentioned earlier I am not convinced this was all about jobs and the economy! For one I suspect a major failure of political strategy and communication on the part of the Democrats who appeared tentative, timid and lacking self-assurance as they abandoned the political space to the “Tea Party” onslaught. Obama himself continues in pursuit of his idealistic but elusive America that is neither red nor blue; neither Democratic nor Republican; neither liberal nor conservative. Of course political realities may be different as angry conservatives deployed everything in their vast political and financial arsenal towards undermining and destroying him.
I suspect this was also about campaign finance. The US Supreme Court may have delivered an enduring strategic advantage to the Republicans with the ruling removing caps on corporate political donations. So while individuals, who form the bulk of Democratic donors, have restrictions on their political donations, companies who favour mostly Republicans may make unlimited campaign contributions. That advantage may have had decisive impact on this race, and except that ruling is reversed, future races as well.
Deploying their financial advantage in organisation and advertising, the Republicans and their Tea Party allies successfully but unjustifiably demonised Obama as an anti-business liberal engaged in wealth re-distribution and seeking to over-tax and over-regulate businesses; a socialist who wanted to nationalise the economy and spend his way to recovery; and a statist who through healthcare and other policies would foster big government and lead a government take-over of citizens’ rights and lives. All these supported with barely-disguised racism and “we want our America back” posturing from the pulpit, conservative rallies and Fox News Channel! The Democrats never quite rose to the propaganda challenge and failed to summon the energy and enthusiasm to confront Republican and Tea Party scaremongering. Unfortunately Obama was professorial rather than engaging. He assumed that the facts would speak for him, and that reason would prevail over disinformation and fear, and failed to connect at an empathic level with independents and even Democrats.
I suspect right-wing demonization of Obama proved devastating due to a “pre-existing condition”-American voters were themselves increasingly unsure of Obama on the issue of “American values” even if they couldn’t say so to pollsters. What did Obama really believe in? Who is he? Is he an American or Kenyan? A Christian or Muslim? A centrist or far-left liberal? Why does he seem overtly focused on the Islamic world? Why does he support the “Ground Zero” mosque? Why did he bow waist-level before the Saudi King? Will he abandon Israel under pressure? Is he determined to elevate the place of gays and lesbians in US society? I suspect that not being sure of where Obama seeks to lead US society on these “cultural” issues, American Republicans and Independents voted to impose restraints on his power. And many Democrats, acquiesced by staying at home!
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Fela's Foresight
I have always wanted to write about Fela! Fela Anikulapo-Kuti. In the wake of this year’s “Felabration”, I found enough incentive so to do, even though politics and business disturbed my timeline. Why would an otherwise serious column dedicated to “Economy, Polity, Society” find Fela a worthwhile subject? The answer is that Fela transcended all of these spheres. Indeed my basic thesis is that Fela was ahead of his time and his generation in his pioneering thinking in relation to Nigeria’s socio-political development, and oftentimes in relation to global politics as well.
Consider Fela’s song, “Zombie”, a stinging rebuke of the Nigerian military institution and rejection of military rule which had turned Nigeria and many other African and third world nations into huge military garrisons. At this time when Fela found military incursion into civilian life and national leadership an abominable desecration, professors of law, political science and other intellectuals, lawyers and civil servants were happily serving under the military. It was not until the progressive (or rather regressive) march of military rule turned full circle with the Abachas that intellectual thought in our universities, professional associations and chambers of commerce evolved into a consciousness that military rule could no longer be tolerated-decades after Fela!
Or consider Fela’s “Authority Stealing” which was a frontal assault on corruption and the selfish abuse of office by Nigerian political office holders and civil servants. Fela recognised that “…authority stealing pass armed robbery” in its destruction of the national economy, denial of social services and infrastructure to millions of Nigerians and its ultimately deleterious impact on the nation and the destiny of its masses. As Fela argued while one armed robber could destroy one or two lives at a time, a pen robber by one stroke could destroy a million lives, denying them schools, hospitals, social welfare, power and other necessities of a fulfilled life. It took us several decades after Fela before corruption came unto the national agenda with the ICPC and EFCC.
Our people’s docility and lack of political activism also engaged Fela’s attention long before NGOs and so-called “civil society organisations” and at a time when the foreign ministries of the western powers thought the best way to protect their interests was through African strong men or their corrupt civilian counterparts. In “Suffering and Smiling”, Fela railed against the abject conditions of public transportation (“…49 sitting 99 standing…”) and other aspects of the standard of living of our people and wondered why they continued to smile and tolerate the wickedness of their rulers. But then Fela understood. As he sang, our people will do anything to stay alive, even if they were living an existence which was next to sub-human. “I no wan die, mama dey for house; papa dey for house; I wan build house; I wan buy car”, Fela sang, recognising the endless, sometimes unrealistic hope for a better tomorrow which push our people against radical political or social action to improve their conditions. Fela anticipated the peculiar bastardisation of “demo-crazy” that we would later see from 1999 to date. He regarded the mockery of democracy that we witnessed during the Shagari regime and the Babangida experiments as a demonstration of madness (craze).
Fela’s thinking also explored economics, international relations and even aspects of sociology. He sang for instance about inflation and its effects on the purchasing power and living standards of the people, illustrating with the story of the unfortunate Nigerian who was saving to buy some appliance, whose price kept moving up, as our victim manages to assemble enough funds to buy the coveted item. He sang about the menace of multinational corporations which encouraged corruption in third world countries using MKO Abiola’s ITT as the example. “International Thief Thief” he parodied. At this time the US and other developed nations had no problems with their corporations bribing and corrupting third world nations. It is significant that such activities as Fela sang about are now illegal under the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and even private sector organisations from developed nations are obliged under laws such as Sarbannes-Oxly to adopt higher and more noble standards of conduct. Many years after Fela!
Fela sang about the United Nations, about the oddity of the veto wielded by the US, UK, China, Russia and France, wondering how united an assembly that harboured Britain and Argentina; Libya and the US; and Iran and Iraq could be. Fela of course dismissed the UN as a “disunited United Nations”! He sang about Africa as the “centre of the world” projecting the mantra later adopted by our foreign policy establishment as “Africa as the centre piece of our foreign policy”. Fela also sang about social phenomenon-the inferiority complex and neo-colonial mindset fostered by “colonial mentality”; about the penchant of ladies to do “shakara" when propositioned by men; the critical role of water in human existence in “water no get enemy” (today global NGOs are also on to that); about the desire of Africans to look fair-skinned (still that inferiority complex) in “yellow fever” and other social tensions in “palava”!
Fela was ahead of his time. Unfortunately as happens to geniuses who can’t understand why the environment around them can’t see what they see, Fela may have snapped and become a social, economic and political rebel. His ultimate vindication is that decades after his songs, we have finally found our way to accept all his arguments.
Consider Fela’s song, “Zombie”, a stinging rebuke of the Nigerian military institution and rejection of military rule which had turned Nigeria and many other African and third world nations into huge military garrisons. At this time when Fela found military incursion into civilian life and national leadership an abominable desecration, professors of law, political science and other intellectuals, lawyers and civil servants were happily serving under the military. It was not until the progressive (or rather regressive) march of military rule turned full circle with the Abachas that intellectual thought in our universities, professional associations and chambers of commerce evolved into a consciousness that military rule could no longer be tolerated-decades after Fela!
Or consider Fela’s “Authority Stealing” which was a frontal assault on corruption and the selfish abuse of office by Nigerian political office holders and civil servants. Fela recognised that “…authority stealing pass armed robbery” in its destruction of the national economy, denial of social services and infrastructure to millions of Nigerians and its ultimately deleterious impact on the nation and the destiny of its masses. As Fela argued while one armed robber could destroy one or two lives at a time, a pen robber by one stroke could destroy a million lives, denying them schools, hospitals, social welfare, power and other necessities of a fulfilled life. It took us several decades after Fela before corruption came unto the national agenda with the ICPC and EFCC.
Our people’s docility and lack of political activism also engaged Fela’s attention long before NGOs and so-called “civil society organisations” and at a time when the foreign ministries of the western powers thought the best way to protect their interests was through African strong men or their corrupt civilian counterparts. In “Suffering and Smiling”, Fela railed against the abject conditions of public transportation (“…49 sitting 99 standing…”) and other aspects of the standard of living of our people and wondered why they continued to smile and tolerate the wickedness of their rulers. But then Fela understood. As he sang, our people will do anything to stay alive, even if they were living an existence which was next to sub-human. “I no wan die, mama dey for house; papa dey for house; I wan build house; I wan buy car”, Fela sang, recognising the endless, sometimes unrealistic hope for a better tomorrow which push our people against radical political or social action to improve their conditions. Fela anticipated the peculiar bastardisation of “demo-crazy” that we would later see from 1999 to date. He regarded the mockery of democracy that we witnessed during the Shagari regime and the Babangida experiments as a demonstration of madness (craze).
Fela’s thinking also explored economics, international relations and even aspects of sociology. He sang for instance about inflation and its effects on the purchasing power and living standards of the people, illustrating with the story of the unfortunate Nigerian who was saving to buy some appliance, whose price kept moving up, as our victim manages to assemble enough funds to buy the coveted item. He sang about the menace of multinational corporations which encouraged corruption in third world countries using MKO Abiola’s ITT as the example. “International Thief Thief” he parodied. At this time the US and other developed nations had no problems with their corporations bribing and corrupting third world nations. It is significant that such activities as Fela sang about are now illegal under the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and even private sector organisations from developed nations are obliged under laws such as Sarbannes-Oxly to adopt higher and more noble standards of conduct. Many years after Fela!
Fela sang about the United Nations, about the oddity of the veto wielded by the US, UK, China, Russia and France, wondering how united an assembly that harboured Britain and Argentina; Libya and the US; and Iran and Iraq could be. Fela of course dismissed the UN as a “disunited United Nations”! He sang about Africa as the “centre of the world” projecting the mantra later adopted by our foreign policy establishment as “Africa as the centre piece of our foreign policy”. Fela also sang about social phenomenon-the inferiority complex and neo-colonial mindset fostered by “colonial mentality”; about the penchant of ladies to do “shakara" when propositioned by men; the critical role of water in human existence in “water no get enemy” (today global NGOs are also on to that); about the desire of Africans to look fair-skinned (still that inferiority complex) in “yellow fever” and other social tensions in “palava”!
Fela was ahead of his time. Unfortunately as happens to geniuses who can’t understand why the environment around them can’t see what they see, Fela may have snapped and become a social, economic and political rebel. His ultimate vindication is that decades after his songs, we have finally found our way to accept all his arguments.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Which "MEND" is this?
Several readers have wondered why I have had nothing to say (till now) about the Independence Day bomb blasts in Abuja on October 1, 2010. The answer is not far-fetched-it was clear to me that whoever planned the incident was selling us a storyline which they hoped we would swallow uncritically. I can detect choreography when I see one, and I can tell the difference between truth and propaganda! So it was wise and prudent in my view to suspend judgment, analyse the facts and see what pattern emerges.
A pre-bomb warning and post-bomb claim of responsibility was attributed to the so-called “Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger-Delta” (“MEND”). The objectives of MEND should thus include economic emancipation (in terms of resources, employment and wealth creation, infrastructure and economic development), environmental remediation and advancing political interests of the Niger-Delta. It is difficult to see how the Abuja bomb blasts could have been in pursuit of these objectives! For the first time in Nigeria’s history, a Niger-Delta indigene was at the helm of affairs in the country, and had been in that position for less than six months, a period in which he had appointed Niger-Deltans to the petroleum, foreign affairs and Niger-Delta ministries and had already awarded major infrastructural contracts in the region.
What can we deduce instead as the strategic objectives of the Abuja bombers? It would seem these were to prevent the 50th independence anniversary celebrations from holding and thus prevent Jonathan from having his day in the sun; discredit the Jonathan administration; undermine Jonathan politically by seeking to show that he lacked home support in the Niger-Delta and would be unable to resolve the Niger-Delta crisis; and weaken his chances of winning the 2011 presidency. How on earth can these be consistent with the interests of the Niger-Delta? Why would a movement seeking Niger-Delta emancipation pursue these objectives? I think we can dismiss altogether the possibility that the bombings had anything to do with the Niger-Delta!
But it appears clear that Henry Okah was involved in the bombings. From my investigations (information which is at least one year old) Henry Okah was an arms dealer who sold arms to all the militant factions in the Niger-Delta. His primary motivation appears always to have been commercial though by virtue of his positioning as “logistics supplier” to the less-educated militants, he may have secured some influence over them. It is thus not inconceivable (especially as the Niger-Delta amnesty has in effect undermined his thriving arms sales operation) that Okah’s involvement was motivated by commerce rather than any emancipatory considerations! So the focus of enquiry perhaps should be who has the motives, incentives and capacity to engage Okah’s services if indeed he had been contracted to provide terrorist services by some employers? Alternatively was Okah attempting to blackmail the Jonathan presidency into providing him an “amnesty subsidy” to replace the revenue flow from the sales of weapons and ammunition to militants?
There are concerns however beyond Henry Okah. There does seem, as I mentioned earlier some choreography around the bomb blasts in particular involving Al Jazeerah, which broadcast a news item purporting to show a MEND camp and demonstrate that MEND was re-arming around the time of the blasts; and followed up with an interview with Henry Okah in which he claimed that President Jonathan had tried to induce him to implicate “Northerners” in the bomb blasts. Who organised and facilitated these Al Jazeerah activities? Was the correlation between the timing of the bomb blasts and the Al Jazeerah story “happenstance, co-incidence or enemy action”? Why would Okah who is purportedly seeking Niger-Delta emancipation (presumably from Nigerian hegemony exercised mostly by “Northerners”) become the spokesperson and defender of “Northerners” against a Niger-Delta President? Why would Okah appear to be going out of his way to seek to destroy the Jonathan presidency? Who will be the beneficiaries if the Jonathan presidency is destroyed? MEND? The Niger-Delta? Who? Again the focus of enquiry should also be around these questions.
Subsequent to the bomb blasts, over 60 former MEND field commanders including all the known militant leaders visited Jonathan and disclaimed any connection to the bombing. “Tompolo” in particular asserted categorically that he was the leader of MEND, and that MEND had nothing to do with the blasts.
Any doubts about the explicitly political objectives of the independence day “MEND” appear to have been dissolved by the latest “MEND” statement issued a few days ago which sought to scare people away from Goodluck Jonathan/Namadi Sambo campaigns and accused Jonathan of disuniting the country. It is very probable from the language and content of that release that the writer was not even from the Niger-Delta! The mind-set is of an individual or group aggrieved by the Jonathan presidency and his intent to contest in 2011!!!
So while it has been politically correct to blame President Jonathan for trying to delink the bomb blast and MEND from the bomb blast, I would in fact affirm strongly that even though Jonathan was angered, rattled or incensed by the bomb blasts and therefore spoke prematurely, his basic instincts were correct! It is impossible based on rational analysis to conclude that the bombs were detonated on behalf of the Niger-Delta.
The truth may be closer to Abuja than Port Harcourt, Warri or Yenagoa!!!
A pre-bomb warning and post-bomb claim of responsibility was attributed to the so-called “Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger-Delta” (“MEND”). The objectives of MEND should thus include economic emancipation (in terms of resources, employment and wealth creation, infrastructure and economic development), environmental remediation and advancing political interests of the Niger-Delta. It is difficult to see how the Abuja bomb blasts could have been in pursuit of these objectives! For the first time in Nigeria’s history, a Niger-Delta indigene was at the helm of affairs in the country, and had been in that position for less than six months, a period in which he had appointed Niger-Deltans to the petroleum, foreign affairs and Niger-Delta ministries and had already awarded major infrastructural contracts in the region.
What can we deduce instead as the strategic objectives of the Abuja bombers? It would seem these were to prevent the 50th independence anniversary celebrations from holding and thus prevent Jonathan from having his day in the sun; discredit the Jonathan administration; undermine Jonathan politically by seeking to show that he lacked home support in the Niger-Delta and would be unable to resolve the Niger-Delta crisis; and weaken his chances of winning the 2011 presidency. How on earth can these be consistent with the interests of the Niger-Delta? Why would a movement seeking Niger-Delta emancipation pursue these objectives? I think we can dismiss altogether the possibility that the bombings had anything to do with the Niger-Delta!
But it appears clear that Henry Okah was involved in the bombings. From my investigations (information which is at least one year old) Henry Okah was an arms dealer who sold arms to all the militant factions in the Niger-Delta. His primary motivation appears always to have been commercial though by virtue of his positioning as “logistics supplier” to the less-educated militants, he may have secured some influence over them. It is thus not inconceivable (especially as the Niger-Delta amnesty has in effect undermined his thriving arms sales operation) that Okah’s involvement was motivated by commerce rather than any emancipatory considerations! So the focus of enquiry perhaps should be who has the motives, incentives and capacity to engage Okah’s services if indeed he had been contracted to provide terrorist services by some employers? Alternatively was Okah attempting to blackmail the Jonathan presidency into providing him an “amnesty subsidy” to replace the revenue flow from the sales of weapons and ammunition to militants?
There are concerns however beyond Henry Okah. There does seem, as I mentioned earlier some choreography around the bomb blasts in particular involving Al Jazeerah, which broadcast a news item purporting to show a MEND camp and demonstrate that MEND was re-arming around the time of the blasts; and followed up with an interview with Henry Okah in which he claimed that President Jonathan had tried to induce him to implicate “Northerners” in the bomb blasts. Who organised and facilitated these Al Jazeerah activities? Was the correlation between the timing of the bomb blasts and the Al Jazeerah story “happenstance, co-incidence or enemy action”? Why would Okah who is purportedly seeking Niger-Delta emancipation (presumably from Nigerian hegemony exercised mostly by “Northerners”) become the spokesperson and defender of “Northerners” against a Niger-Delta President? Why would Okah appear to be going out of his way to seek to destroy the Jonathan presidency? Who will be the beneficiaries if the Jonathan presidency is destroyed? MEND? The Niger-Delta? Who? Again the focus of enquiry should also be around these questions.
Subsequent to the bomb blasts, over 60 former MEND field commanders including all the known militant leaders visited Jonathan and disclaimed any connection to the bombing. “Tompolo” in particular asserted categorically that he was the leader of MEND, and that MEND had nothing to do with the blasts.
Any doubts about the explicitly political objectives of the independence day “MEND” appear to have been dissolved by the latest “MEND” statement issued a few days ago which sought to scare people away from Goodluck Jonathan/Namadi Sambo campaigns and accused Jonathan of disuniting the country. It is very probable from the language and content of that release that the writer was not even from the Niger-Delta! The mind-set is of an individual or group aggrieved by the Jonathan presidency and his intent to contest in 2011!!!
So while it has been politically correct to blame President Jonathan for trying to delink the bomb blast and MEND from the bomb blast, I would in fact affirm strongly that even though Jonathan was angered, rattled or incensed by the bomb blasts and therefore spoke prematurely, his basic instincts were correct! It is impossible based on rational analysis to conclude that the bombs were detonated on behalf of the Niger-Delta.
The truth may be closer to Abuja than Port Harcourt, Warri or Yenagoa!!!
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Another 50 Years of Elite Failure???
On October 1, 2010 Nigeria celebrated fifty years of national independence. What should we celebrate? Success? The absence of failure? That we did not break up and remain one (dis) united country? We are better than Liberia, Sierra Leone, Burundi, Haiti etc? We always step back from the brick? We have huge size, large population, big cities, many states, capital market, NNPC, many universities, polytechnics, teaching hospitals, general hospitals, airlines, seaports and airports, refineries and industries?
But then what is the point of many universities which don’t teach much? And whose graduates can hardly find jobs? Hospitals without drugs? Refineries which don’t work? A poorly-regulated capital market? Big unplanned urban slums? Large population, seventy percent of whom live in poverty and semi-poverty? Why stay as one country if every decision is subject to “zoning”, “federal character”, “quota” or “rotation”? Why stay together and kill yourselves every now and then? In short even those things which we claim to celebrate are questionable! Nevertheless I think we can celebrate our RESILENCE as a people …OUR SELF –CONFIDENCE, UNBROKEN SPIRIT …OUR ABILITY TO LAUGH AT OURSELVES. And to keep going!!!
Unfortunately, we celebrate SUB-OPTIMALITY! Why not channel these attributes to achieving success, rather than merely avoiding failure, disaster or even tragedy? My fundamental diagnosis is that Nigeria’s problem is ELITE FAILURE!!! A bureaucratic elite that merely stepped into the shoes of departing colonial civil servants; A political elite that retained all trappings of colonial government and failed to build an integrated national elite; A traditional elite who traded off their people’s interests first to slave traders…then colonial masters… and now their new indigenous political elite; A professional elite that adapted quickly to the demands of the new rulers-for bribes, complicity, silence, co-option…whatever!; A military elite that regarded their compatriots as “bloody civilians” just like the colonial army regarded us as “bloody natives”; a business elite that is rent-seeking rather than entrepreneurial; Ethnic and regional elites who prevented the creation of a nation and sense of national purpose; An academic elite that allowed its will to be crushed, its dignity to be eroded and became civil servants or politicians!
Are the elite the president, legislators and governors, politicians and civil servants, and the very wealthy? No. That failed elite includes all those who can read this article!!! As the Bible says, “For all have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God” (Romans 3: 23). We all think in ethnic, nepotistic and self serving perspectives! Most do not vote or even register to vote! We all do not want to die so we compromise, or keep quiet! As Fela sang, ‘I no wan die, mama dey for house; papa dey for house; pickin dey for house; I wan build house; I wan buy car’’. Most pay and receive bribes. We all go for holidays in London, NY, Dubai and never take local holidays! We accept mediocre services from public and private sector organisations! Most shun politics, civil society, NGO s etc and dismiss those who do as “social critics” We all acquiesce (and some actively participate) in election rigging!!! People embezzle IKOYI CLUB, Residents Association, PTA or other community funds! Most do not know their councillors, LG chairmen, House of Assembly members, Representatives or Senators! Some bribe teachers, swimming instructors at Ikoyi Club, school principals etc to favour our children! I hear some spend immense resources on primary and secondary school prefects’ elections to ensure their children win! We send our kids to school in other countries, and complain about the quality of education in Nigeria. At the very least, we usually do nothing except complain, or worse still just keep quiet.
In 2060, will we “celebrate’’ 100 years of avoiding failure, stepping back from the brick, being big and populous or just remaining one nation? Will our elite remain blind to its own self –interest and destructive in its short-termism and selfishness? Will we still embezzle health and education budgets hoping to send our family members to school or hospitals abroad? Will we refuse to put in place train systems and free up the roads for our exotic cars? Buy the latest jeeps and salons, but drive them on potholed roads because another jeep owner has stolen the money meant for road maintenance? Destroy financial and capital markets through sharp practices making everyone, rich and poor, loose massive amounts of capital in the process?
That is the challenge of the Nigerian elite as we ‘celebrate’’ this 50 year independence anniversary. Will the next 50 years be different……and better? Whether we like it or not, we are a part of that elite. By parenthood, education, professional attainment, employment, income and social status, we are part of the upper 5% of the Nigerian population that has failed to lead this nation in the right direction, The Bible says, ‘ By their fruits, you shall know them’’ So far, after 50 years, our fruits are not savoury. May be we can pull out the bad seeds, and plant again…. this time better seeds? Or may be, as usual, we will pray that somehow, miraculously, God will transform the bad seeds into goods fruits, which I believe he can choose to do, but I also know he says “faith without works is nothing!” Or may be we will just complain, or keep quiet and do NOTHING. Or MAY BE NOT!
But then what is the point of many universities which don’t teach much? And whose graduates can hardly find jobs? Hospitals without drugs? Refineries which don’t work? A poorly-regulated capital market? Big unplanned urban slums? Large population, seventy percent of whom live in poverty and semi-poverty? Why stay as one country if every decision is subject to “zoning”, “federal character”, “quota” or “rotation”? Why stay together and kill yourselves every now and then? In short even those things which we claim to celebrate are questionable! Nevertheless I think we can celebrate our RESILENCE as a people …OUR SELF –CONFIDENCE, UNBROKEN SPIRIT …OUR ABILITY TO LAUGH AT OURSELVES. And to keep going!!!
Unfortunately, we celebrate SUB-OPTIMALITY! Why not channel these attributes to achieving success, rather than merely avoiding failure, disaster or even tragedy? My fundamental diagnosis is that Nigeria’s problem is ELITE FAILURE!!! A bureaucratic elite that merely stepped into the shoes of departing colonial civil servants; A political elite that retained all trappings of colonial government and failed to build an integrated national elite; A traditional elite who traded off their people’s interests first to slave traders…then colonial masters… and now their new indigenous political elite; A professional elite that adapted quickly to the demands of the new rulers-for bribes, complicity, silence, co-option…whatever!; A military elite that regarded their compatriots as “bloody civilians” just like the colonial army regarded us as “bloody natives”; a business elite that is rent-seeking rather than entrepreneurial; Ethnic and regional elites who prevented the creation of a nation and sense of national purpose; An academic elite that allowed its will to be crushed, its dignity to be eroded and became civil servants or politicians!
Are the elite the president, legislators and governors, politicians and civil servants, and the very wealthy? No. That failed elite includes all those who can read this article!!! As the Bible says, “For all have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God” (Romans 3: 23). We all think in ethnic, nepotistic and self serving perspectives! Most do not vote or even register to vote! We all do not want to die so we compromise, or keep quiet! As Fela sang, ‘I no wan die, mama dey for house; papa dey for house; pickin dey for house; I wan build house; I wan buy car’’. Most pay and receive bribes. We all go for holidays in London, NY, Dubai and never take local holidays! We accept mediocre services from public and private sector organisations! Most shun politics, civil society, NGO s etc and dismiss those who do as “social critics” We all acquiesce (and some actively participate) in election rigging!!! People embezzle IKOYI CLUB, Residents Association, PTA or other community funds! Most do not know their councillors, LG chairmen, House of Assembly members, Representatives or Senators! Some bribe teachers, swimming instructors at Ikoyi Club, school principals etc to favour our children! I hear some spend immense resources on primary and secondary school prefects’ elections to ensure their children win! We send our kids to school in other countries, and complain about the quality of education in Nigeria. At the very least, we usually do nothing except complain, or worse still just keep quiet.
In 2060, will we “celebrate’’ 100 years of avoiding failure, stepping back from the brick, being big and populous or just remaining one nation? Will our elite remain blind to its own self –interest and destructive in its short-termism and selfishness? Will we still embezzle health and education budgets hoping to send our family members to school or hospitals abroad? Will we refuse to put in place train systems and free up the roads for our exotic cars? Buy the latest jeeps and salons, but drive them on potholed roads because another jeep owner has stolen the money meant for road maintenance? Destroy financial and capital markets through sharp practices making everyone, rich and poor, loose massive amounts of capital in the process?
That is the challenge of the Nigerian elite as we ‘celebrate’’ this 50 year independence anniversary. Will the next 50 years be different……and better? Whether we like it or not, we are a part of that elite. By parenthood, education, professional attainment, employment, income and social status, we are part of the upper 5% of the Nigerian population that has failed to lead this nation in the right direction, The Bible says, ‘ By their fruits, you shall know them’’ So far, after 50 years, our fruits are not savoury. May be we can pull out the bad seeds, and plant again…. this time better seeds? Or may be, as usual, we will pray that somehow, miraculously, God will transform the bad seeds into goods fruits, which I believe he can choose to do, but I also know he says “faith without works is nothing!” Or may be we will just complain, or keep quiet and do NOTHING. Or MAY BE NOT!
Monday, September 27, 2010
Questions for the Candidates
As my contribution towards refocusing the 2011 elections towards the candidates qualifications, antecedents, policies and programmes, I have developed some questions which I (and I am sure many Nigerians) will like addressed by the candidates. I urge the media, civil society and all Nigerians to direct these questions to them and invite the candidates and their campaign organisations to provide responses.
General Muhammadu Buhari
1. Do you regret the killing of drug traffickers under retroactive legislation during your regime? 2. Do you now agree that retroactive criminal laws are an abuse of human rights? 3. Why did you lock up all political office holders, and set their leader, President Shehu Shagari free? 4. How did you arrive at the decision that you announced then that Vice President Alex Ekwueme and not President Shagari was responsible for the corruption witnessed during the 1979-1983 civilian regime? 5. What is your view about the Late General Sani Abacha’s regime? 6. Do you still hold the view which you and your other military colleagues announced sometime back at Abacha’s memorial that he did no wrong? 7. Why did you serve in the regime of General Abacha? 8. Did you ever complain to Abacha about corruption, human rights abuses, murder of Kudirat Abiola, or the jailing of your former Commander-in Chief, General Obasanjo? 9. Did you discuss the death of General Shehu Yar’adua with Abacha? 10. Do you think there is any veracity to allegations of corruption in the PTF which you headed during Abacha’s reign? 11. As Minister of Petroleum Resources during the so-called $2.8 billion affair, can you shed light on what really happened? 12. Do you believe in press freedom? 13. Do you regret enacting Decree 4 which restricted press freedom? 14. Do you regret jailing Nduka Irabor and Tunde Thompson of the Guardian under that obnoxious decree? 15. Do you agree that Decree 4 was obnoxious? 16. As military Head of State, you ruled out a transition to civil rule; indeed you are the only military ruler Nigeria has ever had, who never announced a transition to civil rule. Do you now believe in democracy? 17. Can you assure Nigerians that you will not abolish democracy in place of rule by Decree if you become President? 18. Is it a coincidence that you have been involved in Nigeria’s two most repressive military regimes- yours and Abacha? 19. Are you a democrat by instinct? 20. Do you believe in fundamental human rights? 21. During your regime, you showed little understanding of the economy. Are you now better equipped to deal with economic issues? 22. What is your economic philosophy? 23. Why have you never outlined a concrete economic or policy programme in your previous attempts at running for the Presidency? 24. Can you explain the”53 suit cases” matter which happened during your regime? 25. Your regime embarked on a controversial “counter-trade” scheme which reportedly became an avenue for corruption. Can you shed light on what really happened? 26. Why is it that you have never commented on the annulment of the June 12, 1993 elections? 27. Do you believe the annulment was wrong? 28. Did you ever discuss Abacha’s self-perpetration scheme with him? 29. Why is it that while Obasanjo and Yar’adua got into trouble with Abacha, you retained his confidence and trust, evidenced by the fact that you served in his government without any conflict between two of you? 30. How do you reconcile your reputation as incorrupt with your tenure as Minister of Petroleum under General Obasanjo; PTF Chairman, (PTF in particular was allegedly riddled with corruption) under General Abacha’a corrupt government; and the regime you headed as Head of State’s counter-trade scandal?
General Ibrahim Babangida
1. Your regime announced a transition to civil rule for 1990. Why did you shift it to 1992? 2. Why did you shift again from 1992 to 1993? 3. Do you believe Nigerians are entitled to know why the June 12, 1993 elections were annulled? 4. Will you explain that now? 5. You were Military President when Dele Giwa was killed through a parcel bomb, an unprecedented and unusual development in Nigeria. Was your government interested in finding out who killed him? 6. What did you discover and what can you tell Nigerian about the death of Dele Giwa? 7. When you were “stepping aside” you retired all the service chiefs but left General Sani Abacha in office. Why did you do this? 8. Why do you think Nigerians accuse you of institutionalising a culture of “settlement” in Nigeria? 9. Can you shed light to Nigerians and the family of Major-General Mamman Vatsa the events leading to his death? 10. The educational sector was virtually crippled due to strikes, cultism, brain drain and poor funding during your regime. Why did this happen? 11. The same factors in the education sector manifested in the health sector. Again can you shed light on why this happened? 12. Do you believe at 69 years of age, you are strong and sufficiently mentally alert to rule a complex and dynamic nation like Nigeria? 13. Why are you predicating your claim to power on an ethnic or regional claim to power, rather than policies and programmes? 14. Will you have a First Lady as President? 15. Your son’s generation are leaders in USA and UK. Why do you believe Nigeria’s case should be different? 16. Can you shed light on this vexed issue of the Okigbo Report and so-called Gulf war windfall? 17. General Salihu Ibrahim described the Nigerian Army under you, as “an army of any thing is possible” .Do you believe you contributed to de-professionalising the army when you were in power? 18. Many commentators accuse your regime of eroding national values. Why do you think phenomena such as corruption, 419, etc are traced and associated in popular consciousness with your regime? 19. What is your view about corruption? 20. Do you think you will have the credibility with Nigerians and the international community to fight corruption? 21. During your regime, professional and civil society institutions such as NBA, NMA, NANS, NLC and the media appeared to have been systematically subverted. Do you accept this viewpoint? 22. Do you accept responsibility for our present un-ideological party system due to the strenuous effects of your government to banish “extremists” and “old breed” politicians from the political space? 23. Do you believe in democracy? 24. Why did you ban certain categories of politicians from politics? 25. You threatened many times that you know those who will not succeed you and decreed into existence government sponsored political parties. Do you believe such actions are compatible with democracy? 26. You were referred to as “Maradona”, “evil genius” and you seemed to relish such characterizations. Do you believe a leader should dribble and manipulate the citizens? 27. Do you believe in transparency, openness and accountability in government? 28. In your view, why is it that in spite of relative domination of power by “Northern” leaders, such as yourself, poverty and illiteracy remains predominant in the Northern States? 29. You have ruled Nigeria for 8 years. Why do you want to rule again? 30. What is your vision for Nigeria? Is it different from the one you had while you were in power?
General Aliyu Gusau
1. Your entire career has been in the military and security services and Nigerians know very little about you or what you believe in. Do you think it is necessary in a democracy for the people to know who their prospective leaders are? 2. Can you share your social, political, economic and other views and programmes with us? 3. Your ambition seems predicted entirely on “zoning” and the “North’s” entitlement to the presidency. Why are you not basing your ambition on your competences, qualifications and programmes for the presidency? 4. There was a recent newspaper report which stated that there was an agreement between you, IBB and Abacha for each of you to rule Nigeria in turns. Is this claim true? 5. Can you shed light in your role in the events leading to, and the aftermath of the June 12 1993 elections? 6. You were a major player in the Murtala/Obasanjo, Buhari, Babangida, Abdulsalam and Obasanjo regimes even though Nigeria know little about your role in these governments. Can you explain what actions, policies and initiatives you carried out during these regimes? 7. Do you believe military rule was a disservice to Nigeria? 8. Would you support, in any circumstances, a return to military rule in Nigeria? 9. Do you think your advocacy of power returning to the north as a MUST can compromise the unity of Nigeria? 10. What concrete policies and programmes can Nigeria expect from your government?
Dr Bukola Saraki
1. You were defacto CEO in your family bank, Societe Generale Bank which is now distressed. Can you explain to Nigerians what happened to that Bank? 2. There are allegations that the EFCC conducted an investigation which indicted you and some other members of your family regarding management of the Bank. Is there any truth to these allegations? 3. You are the out going governor of Kwara state. Do you consider Kwara State a democracy? 4. Most Nigerians perceive Kwara state as ruled exclusively by your family. Is this a fair allegation? 5. Can Nigerians expect that as President you will seek to replicate the system of politics in Kwara state all over Nigeria? 6. Some analysts suggest that you have indeed attempted through your activities as Chairman of the Governors Forum to export the “Kwara Style” of politics to the national level. How would you react to this accusation? 7. Do you believe in openness and transparency in governance? 8. If yes, can you explain in details the structure, ownership, operations and financing of the so –called” Zimbabwean White farmers” transaction? 9. As a “new generation” aspirant, do you believe leaders should be selected on the basis of their character, qualifications, antecedents and performance? 10. If yes, why are you joining the coalition of “Northern aspirants in the PDP in coming out with a “Northern” consensus candidate to oppose President Jonathan? 11. Do you believe such actions advance unity and cohesion in the Nigeria Federation? 12. Do you believe such actions reflect a new way of thinking? 13. Many Nigerians regard you as a member of the “Cabal” that tried to prevent President Jonathan from taking office doing the late President Yar’adua’s illness. Can you shed light on your role during this trying period in Nigeria is history? 14. How do you think the issue of your successor in Kwara state should be handled? 15. Do you believe your sister is the best person to succeed you as Kwara state Governor?
Mallam Nuhu Ribadu
1. What are your plans and programmes if you are elected President of Nigeria? 2. As a lawyer, do you respect human rights and fundamental freedoms of the citizens? 3. While your commitment to the anti-corruption crusade in Nigerian is commendable, can you defend all your activities as EFCC chairman? 4. Do you believe it was right to use EFCC as a tool for securing impeachment of Governors as you once did? 5. Do you think it was right to use the EFCC to attempt to bar ex-President Obasanjo‘s “enemies” from contesting elections? 6. Can you assure Nigerians that as President, you would not abuse the power of the office in dealing with your opponents and critics? 7. What criteria would you adopt in selecting your running mate, ministers and other appointees? 8. What is your vision for Nigeria? 9. Do you believe you have the maturity and disposition to govern Nigeria? 10. Why did you select the ACN as your platform for seeking the Presidency?
Alhaji Abubakar Atiku
1. You were elected Governor of Adamawa State, before your elevation to the Vice Presidency, whereupon your Deputy and protégé, Bonnie Haruna took over as Governor. What were the achievements of the PDP government of Haruna, which you established in Adamawa State during its 8- year tenure? 2. Do you agree that as then leader and inspiration for the PDP in Adamawa, the performance or non-performance of Haruna’s government in Adamawa reflects on you? 3. It is curious that in spite of having been at or near top of Nigeria’s politics and government for almost two decades, Nigerians cannot clearly define your political philosophy, principles, policies and programmes. What do you believe in as a leader and politician? 4. Do you believe you are a principled politician? 5. Can you be validly accused of expediency, opportunism and lack of principle given your movement from PDP to AC and back to PDP again? Does this suggest that you will do anything or go anywhere to get power? 6. Why do you think you have a reputation with most Nigerians as a corrupt politician? 7. How did you amass, what is believed to be your vast wealth? 8. What is your net worth as an individual? 9. Do you believe Nigerians are entitled to know how rich you are and how you obtained your wealth? 10. Do you believe in the Freedom of Information Bill? 11. Do you believe in openness, transparency and accountability in governance? 12. Some analysts believe that predicating your 2011 presidential ambition on “Northern” claim to power has damaged your reputation as a nationalist. Will you govern as a national or “Northern” president if elected as president? 13. Do you believe corruption is probably Nigeria’s most important challenge? 14. How will you deal with the issue of corruption? 15. Nigerians remain unclear about the “Jefferson Affair” in the US in which you were mentioned. Can you clarify what happened? 16. What is your vision for Nigeria? 17. What policies, programmes and initiatives will you pursue if elected Presidents? 18. Some analysts argue that the Obasanjo regime made more progress in the second term when you were more-or-less marginalised. Do you agree with this observation? 19. Nigerians believe the customs service is a corrupt organisation. As a former customs officer, how will you reform this vital institution? 20. Why should Nigerians elect you President?
President Goodluck Jonathan
1. What were your achievements as Deputy Governor and Governor of Bayelsa State and as Acting President and Substantive President? 2. What programmes and policies would you execute if elected in 2011? 3. I personally believe your power sector roadmap is credible. What assurance can you give Nigerians on its implementation? 4. What criteria will you adopt in selecting your ministers and other appointees if elected? 5. Why did you acquiesce in the demands by Governors to deplete the “excess crude account”? 6. When will the Sovereign Wealth Fund which you promised be established? 7. How do you propose to tackle crime, insecurity, kidnapping and other vices that detract from security in Nigeria? 8. What is your programme on anti-corruption? 9. Do you believe the current EFCC is doing a good job? How will you re-invigorate the activities of the organisation? 10. Your appointment of Professor Jega as INEC Chair and the prompt release of funds to him are commendable. What assurances can you give Nigerians on the 2011 elections? 11. You have taken a good step towards government openness, transparency and communication with citizens by engaging with Nigerians through facebook. Do you believe the freedom of Information Bill will further entrench public communication and accountability? 12. What are your programmes for the social sector -Education, Health, Employment Generation, Social Welfare, etc? 13. What are your thoughts on leveraging Nigeria’s potential as a transportation hub in West Africa and Africa? Do you have any plans to revitalise the rail sector? 14. Have you read the Mines and Minerals Act 2007? Do you agree that if properly administered, solid minerals can bring huge amount of investments, jobs and public revenue? What are you doing to realize this potential? 15. What are your views on modernising agriculture and land reform? 16. Do you have a plan for urban housing and mass transit? 17. What are your views on Nigeria’s foreign policy and national defence strategy? 18. Some commentators have accused you of making changes in the armed forces, police and SSS for political reasons. Can you explain why you changed the service chiefs? 19. In your view, what should be the role of “first ladies” in national life? 20. What is your vision for Nigeria by 2015?
General Muhammadu Buhari
1. Do you regret the killing of drug traffickers under retroactive legislation during your regime? 2. Do you now agree that retroactive criminal laws are an abuse of human rights? 3. Why did you lock up all political office holders, and set their leader, President Shehu Shagari free? 4. How did you arrive at the decision that you announced then that Vice President Alex Ekwueme and not President Shagari was responsible for the corruption witnessed during the 1979-1983 civilian regime? 5. What is your view about the Late General Sani Abacha’s regime? 6. Do you still hold the view which you and your other military colleagues announced sometime back at Abacha’s memorial that he did no wrong? 7. Why did you serve in the regime of General Abacha? 8. Did you ever complain to Abacha about corruption, human rights abuses, murder of Kudirat Abiola, or the jailing of your former Commander-in Chief, General Obasanjo? 9. Did you discuss the death of General Shehu Yar’adua with Abacha? 10. Do you think there is any veracity to allegations of corruption in the PTF which you headed during Abacha’s reign? 11. As Minister of Petroleum Resources during the so-called $2.8 billion affair, can you shed light on what really happened? 12. Do you believe in press freedom? 13. Do you regret enacting Decree 4 which restricted press freedom? 14. Do you regret jailing Nduka Irabor and Tunde Thompson of the Guardian under that obnoxious decree? 15. Do you agree that Decree 4 was obnoxious? 16. As military Head of State, you ruled out a transition to civil rule; indeed you are the only military ruler Nigeria has ever had, who never announced a transition to civil rule. Do you now believe in democracy? 17. Can you assure Nigerians that you will not abolish democracy in place of rule by Decree if you become President? 18. Is it a coincidence that you have been involved in Nigeria’s two most repressive military regimes- yours and Abacha? 19. Are you a democrat by instinct? 20. Do you believe in fundamental human rights? 21. During your regime, you showed little understanding of the economy. Are you now better equipped to deal with economic issues? 22. What is your economic philosophy? 23. Why have you never outlined a concrete economic or policy programme in your previous attempts at running for the Presidency? 24. Can you explain the”53 suit cases” matter which happened during your regime? 25. Your regime embarked on a controversial “counter-trade” scheme which reportedly became an avenue for corruption. Can you shed light on what really happened? 26. Why is it that you have never commented on the annulment of the June 12, 1993 elections? 27. Do you believe the annulment was wrong? 28. Did you ever discuss Abacha’s self-perpetration scheme with him? 29. Why is it that while Obasanjo and Yar’adua got into trouble with Abacha, you retained his confidence and trust, evidenced by the fact that you served in his government without any conflict between two of you? 30. How do you reconcile your reputation as incorrupt with your tenure as Minister of Petroleum under General Obasanjo; PTF Chairman, (PTF in particular was allegedly riddled with corruption) under General Abacha’a corrupt government; and the regime you headed as Head of State’s counter-trade scandal?
General Ibrahim Babangida
1. Your regime announced a transition to civil rule for 1990. Why did you shift it to 1992? 2. Why did you shift again from 1992 to 1993? 3. Do you believe Nigerians are entitled to know why the June 12, 1993 elections were annulled? 4. Will you explain that now? 5. You were Military President when Dele Giwa was killed through a parcel bomb, an unprecedented and unusual development in Nigeria. Was your government interested in finding out who killed him? 6. What did you discover and what can you tell Nigerian about the death of Dele Giwa? 7. When you were “stepping aside” you retired all the service chiefs but left General Sani Abacha in office. Why did you do this? 8. Why do you think Nigerians accuse you of institutionalising a culture of “settlement” in Nigeria? 9. Can you shed light to Nigerians and the family of Major-General Mamman Vatsa the events leading to his death? 10. The educational sector was virtually crippled due to strikes, cultism, brain drain and poor funding during your regime. Why did this happen? 11. The same factors in the education sector manifested in the health sector. Again can you shed light on why this happened? 12. Do you believe at 69 years of age, you are strong and sufficiently mentally alert to rule a complex and dynamic nation like Nigeria? 13. Why are you predicating your claim to power on an ethnic or regional claim to power, rather than policies and programmes? 14. Will you have a First Lady as President? 15. Your son’s generation are leaders in USA and UK. Why do you believe Nigeria’s case should be different? 16. Can you shed light on this vexed issue of the Okigbo Report and so-called Gulf war windfall? 17. General Salihu Ibrahim described the Nigerian Army under you, as “an army of any thing is possible” .Do you believe you contributed to de-professionalising the army when you were in power? 18. Many commentators accuse your regime of eroding national values. Why do you think phenomena such as corruption, 419, etc are traced and associated in popular consciousness with your regime? 19. What is your view about corruption? 20. Do you think you will have the credibility with Nigerians and the international community to fight corruption? 21. During your regime, professional and civil society institutions such as NBA, NMA, NANS, NLC and the media appeared to have been systematically subverted. Do you accept this viewpoint? 22. Do you accept responsibility for our present un-ideological party system due to the strenuous effects of your government to banish “extremists” and “old breed” politicians from the political space? 23. Do you believe in democracy? 24. Why did you ban certain categories of politicians from politics? 25. You threatened many times that you know those who will not succeed you and decreed into existence government sponsored political parties. Do you believe such actions are compatible with democracy? 26. You were referred to as “Maradona”, “evil genius” and you seemed to relish such characterizations. Do you believe a leader should dribble and manipulate the citizens? 27. Do you believe in transparency, openness and accountability in government? 28. In your view, why is it that in spite of relative domination of power by “Northern” leaders, such as yourself, poverty and illiteracy remains predominant in the Northern States? 29. You have ruled Nigeria for 8 years. Why do you want to rule again? 30. What is your vision for Nigeria? Is it different from the one you had while you were in power?
General Aliyu Gusau
1. Your entire career has been in the military and security services and Nigerians know very little about you or what you believe in. Do you think it is necessary in a democracy for the people to know who their prospective leaders are? 2. Can you share your social, political, economic and other views and programmes with us? 3. Your ambition seems predicted entirely on “zoning” and the “North’s” entitlement to the presidency. Why are you not basing your ambition on your competences, qualifications and programmes for the presidency? 4. There was a recent newspaper report which stated that there was an agreement between you, IBB and Abacha for each of you to rule Nigeria in turns. Is this claim true? 5. Can you shed light in your role in the events leading to, and the aftermath of the June 12 1993 elections? 6. You were a major player in the Murtala/Obasanjo, Buhari, Babangida, Abdulsalam and Obasanjo regimes even though Nigeria know little about your role in these governments. Can you explain what actions, policies and initiatives you carried out during these regimes? 7. Do you believe military rule was a disservice to Nigeria? 8. Would you support, in any circumstances, a return to military rule in Nigeria? 9. Do you think your advocacy of power returning to the north as a MUST can compromise the unity of Nigeria? 10. What concrete policies and programmes can Nigeria expect from your government?
Dr Bukola Saraki
1. You were defacto CEO in your family bank, Societe Generale Bank which is now distressed. Can you explain to Nigerians what happened to that Bank? 2. There are allegations that the EFCC conducted an investigation which indicted you and some other members of your family regarding management of the Bank. Is there any truth to these allegations? 3. You are the out going governor of Kwara state. Do you consider Kwara State a democracy? 4. Most Nigerians perceive Kwara state as ruled exclusively by your family. Is this a fair allegation? 5. Can Nigerians expect that as President you will seek to replicate the system of politics in Kwara state all over Nigeria? 6. Some analysts suggest that you have indeed attempted through your activities as Chairman of the Governors Forum to export the “Kwara Style” of politics to the national level. How would you react to this accusation? 7. Do you believe in openness and transparency in governance? 8. If yes, can you explain in details the structure, ownership, operations and financing of the so –called” Zimbabwean White farmers” transaction? 9. As a “new generation” aspirant, do you believe leaders should be selected on the basis of their character, qualifications, antecedents and performance? 10. If yes, why are you joining the coalition of “Northern aspirants in the PDP in coming out with a “Northern” consensus candidate to oppose President Jonathan? 11. Do you believe such actions advance unity and cohesion in the Nigeria Federation? 12. Do you believe such actions reflect a new way of thinking? 13. Many Nigerians regard you as a member of the “Cabal” that tried to prevent President Jonathan from taking office doing the late President Yar’adua’s illness. Can you shed light on your role during this trying period in Nigeria is history? 14. How do you think the issue of your successor in Kwara state should be handled? 15. Do you believe your sister is the best person to succeed you as Kwara state Governor?
Mallam Nuhu Ribadu
1. What are your plans and programmes if you are elected President of Nigeria? 2. As a lawyer, do you respect human rights and fundamental freedoms of the citizens? 3. While your commitment to the anti-corruption crusade in Nigerian is commendable, can you defend all your activities as EFCC chairman? 4. Do you believe it was right to use EFCC as a tool for securing impeachment of Governors as you once did? 5. Do you think it was right to use the EFCC to attempt to bar ex-President Obasanjo‘s “enemies” from contesting elections? 6. Can you assure Nigerians that as President, you would not abuse the power of the office in dealing with your opponents and critics? 7. What criteria would you adopt in selecting your running mate, ministers and other appointees? 8. What is your vision for Nigeria? 9. Do you believe you have the maturity and disposition to govern Nigeria? 10. Why did you select the ACN as your platform for seeking the Presidency?
Alhaji Abubakar Atiku
1. You were elected Governor of Adamawa State, before your elevation to the Vice Presidency, whereupon your Deputy and protégé, Bonnie Haruna took over as Governor. What were the achievements of the PDP government of Haruna, which you established in Adamawa State during its 8- year tenure? 2. Do you agree that as then leader and inspiration for the PDP in Adamawa, the performance or non-performance of Haruna’s government in Adamawa reflects on you? 3. It is curious that in spite of having been at or near top of Nigeria’s politics and government for almost two decades, Nigerians cannot clearly define your political philosophy, principles, policies and programmes. What do you believe in as a leader and politician? 4. Do you believe you are a principled politician? 5. Can you be validly accused of expediency, opportunism and lack of principle given your movement from PDP to AC and back to PDP again? Does this suggest that you will do anything or go anywhere to get power? 6. Why do you think you have a reputation with most Nigerians as a corrupt politician? 7. How did you amass, what is believed to be your vast wealth? 8. What is your net worth as an individual? 9. Do you believe Nigerians are entitled to know how rich you are and how you obtained your wealth? 10. Do you believe in the Freedom of Information Bill? 11. Do you believe in openness, transparency and accountability in governance? 12. Some analysts believe that predicating your 2011 presidential ambition on “Northern” claim to power has damaged your reputation as a nationalist. Will you govern as a national or “Northern” president if elected as president? 13. Do you believe corruption is probably Nigeria’s most important challenge? 14. How will you deal with the issue of corruption? 15. Nigerians remain unclear about the “Jefferson Affair” in the US in which you were mentioned. Can you clarify what happened? 16. What is your vision for Nigeria? 17. What policies, programmes and initiatives will you pursue if elected Presidents? 18. Some analysts argue that the Obasanjo regime made more progress in the second term when you were more-or-less marginalised. Do you agree with this observation? 19. Nigerians believe the customs service is a corrupt organisation. As a former customs officer, how will you reform this vital institution? 20. Why should Nigerians elect you President?
President Goodluck Jonathan
1. What were your achievements as Deputy Governor and Governor of Bayelsa State and as Acting President and Substantive President? 2. What programmes and policies would you execute if elected in 2011? 3. I personally believe your power sector roadmap is credible. What assurance can you give Nigerians on its implementation? 4. What criteria will you adopt in selecting your ministers and other appointees if elected? 5. Why did you acquiesce in the demands by Governors to deplete the “excess crude account”? 6. When will the Sovereign Wealth Fund which you promised be established? 7. How do you propose to tackle crime, insecurity, kidnapping and other vices that detract from security in Nigeria? 8. What is your programme on anti-corruption? 9. Do you believe the current EFCC is doing a good job? How will you re-invigorate the activities of the organisation? 10. Your appointment of Professor Jega as INEC Chair and the prompt release of funds to him are commendable. What assurances can you give Nigerians on the 2011 elections? 11. You have taken a good step towards government openness, transparency and communication with citizens by engaging with Nigerians through facebook. Do you believe the freedom of Information Bill will further entrench public communication and accountability? 12. What are your programmes for the social sector -Education, Health, Employment Generation, Social Welfare, etc? 13. What are your thoughts on leveraging Nigeria’s potential as a transportation hub in West Africa and Africa? Do you have any plans to revitalise the rail sector? 14. Have you read the Mines and Minerals Act 2007? Do you agree that if properly administered, solid minerals can bring huge amount of investments, jobs and public revenue? What are you doing to realize this potential? 15. What are your views on modernising agriculture and land reform? 16. Do you have a plan for urban housing and mass transit? 17. What are your views on Nigeria’s foreign policy and national defence strategy? 18. Some commentators have accused you of making changes in the armed forces, police and SSS for political reasons. Can you explain why you changed the service chiefs? 19. In your view, what should be the role of “first ladies” in national life? 20. What is your vision for Nigeria by 2015?
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Nigeria: Forward or Backward? Part 3
I wrote parts 1 and 2 of this series on April 28 and May 5 2010 concerned at our predilection for “looking backwards rather than forward in our national life”. I reviewed the interest of different candidates in the post-2011 presidency and challenged Nigerians to “look forward, carefully and meticulously for a new, more promising leadership” as looking backwards will not provide the quality of leaders we need. Don’t they say that madness is doing the same thing continuously and hoping to get different results? Now as 2011 electoral battlefield formations become clear, I have chosen to return to the subject.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential line-up may be complete-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, former military ruler General Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; former Chief of Army Staff and two-time National Security Adviser General Aliyu Gusau and outgoing Kwara State Governor Dr Bukola Saraki. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is the only party whose candidate is certain-former military dictator, General Muhammadu Buhari! The renamed Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) may feature Dr Usman Bugaje or Mallam Nuhu Ribadu but Ribadu may also opt to contest through another party. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) may feature MKO Abiola’s opponent in the 1993 election Alhaji Bashir Tofa, Kano State Governor Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, or Babangida, Atiku or Gusau if, as seems likely they lose the PDP’s nomination to Jonathan. Others in the frame may be ex-Governor Donald Duke, Professor Pat Utomi (who may also make the controversial move of running as Buhari’s deputy), Pastor Kris Okotie, Mr Dele Momodu and Mrs Sarah Jubril.
In this line-up, Babangida, Atiku, Gusau, Buhari and Tofa represent backward-looking options. I would argue that Nigeria has since July 1998, when General Abdulsalam Abubakar became transitional military head of state, being engaged in a transition from an old to a new Nigeria. Abdulsalam played his part by returning the country swiftly to civilian rule in May 1999. President Obasanjo contributed by embarking on telecommunications deregulation, pension reform, banking consolidation, securing the Paris Club debt write-off thus giving the nation a new economic lease of life and restoring Nigeria to its place in the comity of nations after our Abacha-induced international isolation. Obasanjo of course also set us back some steps with the quality of elections conducted in 2003 and 2007.
Late President Yar’adua chipped in through the Niger-Delta amnesty. He however failed to advance economic development, particularly the power sector where he abandoned the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 in favour of a failed state-led strategy designed by Rilwanu Lukman. In his short stay in office, President Goodluck Jonathan has moved ahead through his power sector roadmap; the prospect of credible elections and constitution of a credible INEC led by Professor Attahiru Jega and its increased financial autonomy; fostering government-citizen communication and accountability through his Facebook page and other actions; equalisation of opportunities in political, military and security positions for all geo-political regions in the country through balanced appointments and particularly with his appointment of an Igbo officer as Chief of Army Staff.
The biggest error Nigeria can make is to take forward movement for granted and risk reversal with the election of IBB, Buhari, Atiku, Gusau and Tofa! And this is not about their age!!! These candidates have a template for thinking about Nigeria that is shaped by the regional/ethnic politics and turmoil of the first republic; the bloody 1966 coup and its aftermath; the civil war of 1967 to 1970; military rule and the development of the unitarist Nigerian state; oil boom and revenue “sharing”; contractor-capitalism and the prebendal, distributive, consumption economy; and the lack of political and citizen accountability of the Buhari, Babangida and Abacha years. They seem incapable of relating to the new Nigeria as evidenced by for instance, defence of regional platforms; power claims based on irredentist paradigms; and the arrogance involved in their assumption that they can intimidate President Jonathan out of the race. They appear not to understand the changes in Nigeria’s civil society, impact of telecommunications, broadcast, internet and social networking revolutions on Nigeria’s emerging politics and emerging role of youth, media and civil society in defining national direction.
Unfortunately even a young candidate like Bukola Saraki demonstrates similar failure to understand the emerging new Nigeria, when he joins in building a “Northern” coalition with other anti-Jonathan candidates within the PDP. That mindset is set in Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and National Party of Nigeria (NPN) politics and not in the Nigeria of 2010! Not surprisingly accomplices in such out-dated strategy include Adamu Ciroma, Lawal Kaita, Tanko Yakassai, Bello Kirfi and other pre-millennial, septuagenarian, regional champions!!! Such attitudes reflect a fixation on the unhelpful and discredited ways of our past!
I think Nigerians should move on and refuse to acquiesce in the abortion of the transition to a new Nigeria by ignoring those steeped in the old one. When Ambassador John Campbell writes about a “Muslim North” and “Christian South” and exaggerates the possibility of a military coup, he talks about the old Nigeria. Yes the new is still emerging, but Nigerians have no reason to accept a return to the fading old Nigeria!
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential line-up may be complete-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, former military ruler General Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; former Chief of Army Staff and two-time National Security Adviser General Aliyu Gusau and outgoing Kwara State Governor Dr Bukola Saraki. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is the only party whose candidate is certain-former military dictator, General Muhammadu Buhari! The renamed Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) may feature Dr Usman Bugaje or Mallam Nuhu Ribadu but Ribadu may also opt to contest through another party. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) may feature MKO Abiola’s opponent in the 1993 election Alhaji Bashir Tofa, Kano State Governor Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, or Babangida, Atiku or Gusau if, as seems likely they lose the PDP’s nomination to Jonathan. Others in the frame may be ex-Governor Donald Duke, Professor Pat Utomi (who may also make the controversial move of running as Buhari’s deputy), Pastor Kris Okotie, Mr Dele Momodu and Mrs Sarah Jubril.
In this line-up, Babangida, Atiku, Gusau, Buhari and Tofa represent backward-looking options. I would argue that Nigeria has since July 1998, when General Abdulsalam Abubakar became transitional military head of state, being engaged in a transition from an old to a new Nigeria. Abdulsalam played his part by returning the country swiftly to civilian rule in May 1999. President Obasanjo contributed by embarking on telecommunications deregulation, pension reform, banking consolidation, securing the Paris Club debt write-off thus giving the nation a new economic lease of life and restoring Nigeria to its place in the comity of nations after our Abacha-induced international isolation. Obasanjo of course also set us back some steps with the quality of elections conducted in 2003 and 2007.
Late President Yar’adua chipped in through the Niger-Delta amnesty. He however failed to advance economic development, particularly the power sector where he abandoned the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 in favour of a failed state-led strategy designed by Rilwanu Lukman. In his short stay in office, President Goodluck Jonathan has moved ahead through his power sector roadmap; the prospect of credible elections and constitution of a credible INEC led by Professor Attahiru Jega and its increased financial autonomy; fostering government-citizen communication and accountability through his Facebook page and other actions; equalisation of opportunities in political, military and security positions for all geo-political regions in the country through balanced appointments and particularly with his appointment of an Igbo officer as Chief of Army Staff.
The biggest error Nigeria can make is to take forward movement for granted and risk reversal with the election of IBB, Buhari, Atiku, Gusau and Tofa! And this is not about their age!!! These candidates have a template for thinking about Nigeria that is shaped by the regional/ethnic politics and turmoil of the first republic; the bloody 1966 coup and its aftermath; the civil war of 1967 to 1970; military rule and the development of the unitarist Nigerian state; oil boom and revenue “sharing”; contractor-capitalism and the prebendal, distributive, consumption economy; and the lack of political and citizen accountability of the Buhari, Babangida and Abacha years. They seem incapable of relating to the new Nigeria as evidenced by for instance, defence of regional platforms; power claims based on irredentist paradigms; and the arrogance involved in their assumption that they can intimidate President Jonathan out of the race. They appear not to understand the changes in Nigeria’s civil society, impact of telecommunications, broadcast, internet and social networking revolutions on Nigeria’s emerging politics and emerging role of youth, media and civil society in defining national direction.
Unfortunately even a young candidate like Bukola Saraki demonstrates similar failure to understand the emerging new Nigeria, when he joins in building a “Northern” coalition with other anti-Jonathan candidates within the PDP. That mindset is set in Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and National Party of Nigeria (NPN) politics and not in the Nigeria of 2010! Not surprisingly accomplices in such out-dated strategy include Adamu Ciroma, Lawal Kaita, Tanko Yakassai, Bello Kirfi and other pre-millennial, septuagenarian, regional champions!!! Such attitudes reflect a fixation on the unhelpful and discredited ways of our past!
I think Nigerians should move on and refuse to acquiesce in the abortion of the transition to a new Nigeria by ignoring those steeped in the old one. When Ambassador John Campbell writes about a “Muslim North” and “Christian South” and exaggerates the possibility of a military coup, he talks about the old Nigeria. Yes the new is still emerging, but Nigerians have no reason to accept a return to the fading old Nigeria!
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