Which "MEND" is this?

Several readers have wondered why I have had nothing to say (till now) about the Independence Day bomb blasts in Abuja on October 1, 2010. The answer is not far-fetched-it was clear to me that whoever planned the incident was selling us a storyline which they hoped we would swallow uncritically. I can detect choreography when I see one, and I can tell the difference between truth and propaganda! So it was wise and prudent in my view to suspend judgment, analyse the facts and see what pattern emerges.

A pre-bomb warning and post-bomb claim of responsibility was attributed to the so-called “Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger-Delta” (“MEND”). The objectives of MEND should thus include economic emancipation (in terms of resources, employment and wealth creation, infrastructure and economic development), environmental remediation and advancing political interests of the Niger-Delta. It is difficult to see how the Abuja bomb blasts could have been in pursuit of these objectives! For the first time in Nigeria’s history, a Niger-Delta indigene was at the helm of affairs in the country, and had been in that position for less than six months, a period in which he had appointed Niger-Deltans to the petroleum, foreign affairs and Niger-Delta ministries and had already awarded major infrastructural contracts in the region.

What can we deduce instead as the strategic objectives of the Abuja bombers? It would seem these were to prevent the 50th independence anniversary celebrations from holding and thus prevent Jonathan from having his day in the sun; discredit the Jonathan administration; undermine Jonathan politically by seeking to show that he lacked home support in the Niger-Delta and would be unable to resolve the Niger-Delta crisis; and weaken his chances of winning the 2011 presidency. How on earth can these be consistent with the interests of the Niger-Delta? Why would a movement seeking Niger-Delta emancipation pursue these objectives? I think we can dismiss altogether the possibility that the bombings had anything to do with the Niger-Delta!

But it appears clear that Henry Okah was involved in the bombings. From my investigations (information which is at least one year old) Henry Okah was an arms dealer who sold arms to all the militant factions in the Niger-Delta. His primary motivation appears always to have been commercial though by virtue of his positioning as “logistics supplier” to the less-educated militants, he may have secured some influence over them. It is thus not inconceivable (especially as the Niger-Delta amnesty has in effect undermined his thriving arms sales operation) that Okah’s involvement was motivated by commerce rather than any emancipatory considerations! So the focus of enquiry perhaps should be who has the motives, incentives and capacity to engage Okah’s services if indeed he had been contracted to provide terrorist services by some employers? Alternatively was Okah attempting to blackmail the Jonathan presidency into providing him an “amnesty subsidy” to replace the revenue flow from the sales of weapons and ammunition to militants?

There are concerns however beyond Henry Okah. There does seem, as I mentioned earlier some choreography around the bomb blasts in particular involving Al Jazeerah, which broadcast a news item purporting to show a MEND camp and demonstrate that MEND was re-arming around the time of the blasts; and followed up with an interview with Henry Okah in which he claimed that President Jonathan had tried to induce him to implicate “Northerners” in the bomb blasts. Who organised and facilitated these Al Jazeerah activities? Was the correlation between the timing of the bomb blasts and the Al Jazeerah story “happenstance, co-incidence or enemy action”? Why would Okah who is purportedly seeking Niger-Delta emancipation (presumably from Nigerian hegemony exercised mostly by “Northerners”) become the spokesperson and defender of “Northerners” against a Niger-Delta President? Why would Okah appear to be going out of his way to seek to destroy the Jonathan presidency? Who will be the beneficiaries if the Jonathan presidency is destroyed? MEND? The Niger-Delta? Who? Again the focus of enquiry should also be around these questions.

Subsequent to the bomb blasts, over 60 former MEND field commanders including all the known militant leaders visited Jonathan and disclaimed any connection to the bombing. “Tompolo” in particular asserted categorically that he was the leader of MEND, and that MEND had nothing to do with the blasts.

Any doubts about the explicitly political objectives of the independence day “MEND” appear to have been dissolved by the latest “MEND” statement issued a few days ago which sought to scare people away from Goodluck Jonathan/Namadi Sambo campaigns and accused Jonathan of disuniting the country. It is very probable from the language and content of that release that the writer was not even from the Niger-Delta! The mind-set is of an individual or group aggrieved by the Jonathan presidency and his intent to contest in 2011!!!

So while it has been politically correct to blame President Jonathan for trying to delink the bomb blast and MEND from the bomb blast, I would in fact affirm strongly that even though Jonathan was angered, rattled or incensed by the bomb blasts and therefore spoke prematurely, his basic instincts were correct! It is impossible based on rational analysis to conclude that the bombs were detonated on behalf of the Niger-Delta.

The truth may be closer to Abuja than Port Harcourt, Warri or Yenagoa!!!