I wrote parts 1 and 2 of this series on April 28 and May 5 2010 concerned at our predilection for “looking backwards rather than forward in our national life”. I reviewed the interest of different candidates in the post-2011 presidency and challenged Nigerians to “look forward, carefully and meticulously for a new, more promising leadership” as looking backwards will not provide the quality of leaders we need. Don’t they say that madness is doing the same thing continuously and hoping to get different results? Now as 2011 electoral battlefield formations become clear, I have chosen to return to the subject.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential line-up may be complete-incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, former military ruler General Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; former Chief of Army Staff and two-time National Security Adviser General Aliyu Gusau and outgoing Kwara State Governor Dr Bukola Saraki. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is the only party whose candidate is certain-former military dictator, General Muhammadu Buhari! The renamed Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) may feature Dr Usman Bugaje or Mallam Nuhu Ribadu but Ribadu may also opt to contest through another party. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) may feature MKO Abiola’s opponent in the 1993 election Alhaji Bashir Tofa, Kano State Governor Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, or Babangida, Atiku or Gusau if, as seems likely they lose the PDP’s nomination to Jonathan. Others in the frame may be ex-Governor Donald Duke, Professor Pat Utomi (who may also make the controversial move of running as Buhari’s deputy), Pastor Kris Okotie, Mr Dele Momodu and Mrs Sarah Jubril.
In this line-up, Babangida, Atiku, Gusau, Buhari and Tofa represent backward-looking options. I would argue that Nigeria has since July 1998, when General Abdulsalam Abubakar became transitional military head of state, being engaged in a transition from an old to a new Nigeria. Abdulsalam played his part by returning the country swiftly to civilian rule in May 1999. President Obasanjo contributed by embarking on telecommunications deregulation, pension reform, banking consolidation, securing the Paris Club debt write-off thus giving the nation a new economic lease of life and restoring Nigeria to its place in the comity of nations after our Abacha-induced international isolation. Obasanjo of course also set us back some steps with the quality of elections conducted in 2003 and 2007.
Late President Yar’adua chipped in through the Niger-Delta amnesty. He however failed to advance economic development, particularly the power sector where he abandoned the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 in favour of a failed state-led strategy designed by Rilwanu Lukman. In his short stay in office, President Goodluck Jonathan has moved ahead through his power sector roadmap; the prospect of credible elections and constitution of a credible INEC led by Professor Attahiru Jega and its increased financial autonomy; fostering government-citizen communication and accountability through his Facebook page and other actions; equalisation of opportunities in political, military and security positions for all geo-political regions in the country through balanced appointments and particularly with his appointment of an Igbo officer as Chief of Army Staff.
The biggest error Nigeria can make is to take forward movement for granted and risk reversal with the election of IBB, Buhari, Atiku, Gusau and Tofa! And this is not about their age!!! These candidates have a template for thinking about Nigeria that is shaped by the regional/ethnic politics and turmoil of the first republic; the bloody 1966 coup and its aftermath; the civil war of 1967 to 1970; military rule and the development of the unitarist Nigerian state; oil boom and revenue “sharing”; contractor-capitalism and the prebendal, distributive, consumption economy; and the lack of political and citizen accountability of the Buhari, Babangida and Abacha years. They seem incapable of relating to the new Nigeria as evidenced by for instance, defence of regional platforms; power claims based on irredentist paradigms; and the arrogance involved in their assumption that they can intimidate President Jonathan out of the race. They appear not to understand the changes in Nigeria’s civil society, impact of telecommunications, broadcast, internet and social networking revolutions on Nigeria’s emerging politics and emerging role of youth, media and civil society in defining national direction.
Unfortunately even a young candidate like Bukola Saraki demonstrates similar failure to understand the emerging new Nigeria, when he joins in building a “Northern” coalition with other anti-Jonathan candidates within the PDP. That mindset is set in Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and National Party of Nigeria (NPN) politics and not in the Nigeria of 2010! Not surprisingly accomplices in such out-dated strategy include Adamu Ciroma, Lawal Kaita, Tanko Yakassai, Bello Kirfi and other pre-millennial, septuagenarian, regional champions!!! Such attitudes reflect a fixation on the unhelpful and discredited ways of our past!
I think Nigerians should move on and refuse to acquiesce in the abortion of the transition to a new Nigeria by ignoring those steeped in the old one. When Ambassador John Campbell writes about a “Muslim North” and “Christian South” and exaggerates the possibility of a military coup, he talks about the old Nigeria. Yes the new is still emerging, but Nigerians have no reason to accept a return to the fading old Nigeria!
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