Understanding Ekiti

I like Governor Kayode Fayemi. I think he’s a good man who is in politics with the right preparation and for the right reasons, and I respect his intellect and role in NADECO. I consider him a candidate for socio-political leadership in Western Nigeria and I do not think that his public life is over, especially if he sticks to his inclination to be graceful in defeat and to rise above hurt and disappointment arising from his loss to Ayo Fayose in the Ekiti elections. Unlike many in his party however, I am not very surprised at the outcome. As the elections approached, my informal survey of sources in Ekiti (and I do have several!) yielded surprising outcomes-a large number of politicians in Ekiti are NOT in the ACN/APC, the result of several migrations over time particularly under former Governor Niyi Adebayo, the primaries that selected Fayemi and the exit of Opeyemi Bamidele; APC’s edge didn’t derive from the political class, but ordinary people due to the hang-over of its perceived affiliation with Awolowo’s legacy; given its support base, the party was particularly vulnerable if it alienated itself from the “masses”; many politicians who had left AD/ACN/APC were bitter, with several accusing the group of institutionalizing nepotism and occultism in the state’s politics; many Ekitis had concluded, rightly or otherwise that they were marginalized due to governance by “imported” politicians-Niyi Adebayo (from Lagos!) and Fayemi (from Ghana!!!). Many suggested it would be difficult for Fayemi to win re-election even though initially (before the PDP primaries) names like Dayo Adeyeye and Senator Ayo Arise appeared favourites. This was in spite of Governor Fayemi having governed fairly creditably-I carried out an empirical evaluation based on research and objective cross-cutting criteria on behalf of a socio-political group in the region that confirmed an above-average performance. However voters are not analysts and take “cultural” and emotive factors into account-the power mongering of some of Fayemi’s appointees; open exercise of political power by his wife; popular disaffection with his mentor, Niyi Adebayo; execution of most contracts by contractors from Lagos; the governor’s aloof and “elitist” disposition; alienation of students, workers and teachers; and overall a perception that the government is not aligned with their needs and priorities. They may also have recoiled from a perception, probably wrongly of excessive control from the APC leader, Bola Tinubu who compounded matters by insulting Yoruba Obas. I think the governor also made a severe misjudgment in deploying violence against opponents as the elections drew nearer and the scale of the challenge clearer. Ekiti people are stubborn (I know (!); they are my in-laws!) and would never be intimidated into submission. And then there were macro factors, principally around the APC, its national leadership and political direction. I mentioned earlier that the APC franchise in Ekiti does not derive from the political elite, who are almost equally divided between APC and PDP (and to some extent, Labour), but from its positioning as party of “mekunu” and perceived progeny of Awolowo progressive politics. I suspect Ekiti voters needed to be re-convinced that beyond rhetoric, that progressive disposition remains! I also doubt that Ekiti voters and the wider Yoruba electorate are persuaded of the merits of the de facto alliance with the Fulani aristocracy, which appears to have a dual purpose-restoring Fulani political hegemony and making the APC leaders minority shareholders in national power and resources. It is not evident to Western Nigerian voters that the alliance was concocted on the basis of their interests! These reservations may have been further accentuated by the menace of “Boko Haram” and perceptions that it represents a Northern Muslim strategy to intimidate the country into handing power back! I am a student of strategy whose process can be broken into three simple parts-ascertaining your current state; determining your desired future position; and creating (and executing) a pathway from current state to desired future. Communication is very important in convincing stakeholders on the need for change and the vision, strategy and strategic intent. However all strategy fails if assessment of current status is faulty, and if propaganda, complacency, prejudice, self-interest, over-confidence, arrogance, hubris or sycophancy distorts the strategists’ view of reality! Propaganda is better deployed to aid strategy realization based on an accurate depiction of reality. In my view it is simplistic and counter-productive to insult Ekiti people as having voted on the basis of bags of rice. Yoruba are proud and independent-minded people! If they were inclined to voting on the basis of cheap inducements, they wouldn’t have resisted the NPC/”Demo” alliance in the first republic; or the NPN’s vastly larger war chest in the second! Did the ACN win back the region through bribery in 2011? Didn’t Obasanjo’s PDP have the larger financial resources to outbid the opposition? The Yoruba eat the food of those they love, and when they don’t like you they may take your money, eat your food and snigger behind your back! No politician spent more money than MKO Abiola in the 1979 effort to make his wife, Simbiat an NPN Senator in Abeokuta; she lost her deposit! When he came back in 1993 as a presidential candidate having realigned with the people, they voted overwhelmingly for him! The APC was vulnerable in Ekiti; a popular, populist, rabble rouser was available to exploit those vulnerabilities! The APC is actually lucky that it has advance notice that it may be out of sync with voters in an area it presumes to be in its pocket. If the party does not use the notice period wisely, it may have to invent more creative explanations than “stomach infrastructure” in 2015! Opeyemi Agbaje