Presidential Scorecards

The 2011 elections are a critical point in Nigeria’s evolution. I believe the country could turn in any of four directions-we could have credible and successful elections with the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) retaining power; we could have an opposition coalition take power; the elections could lack credibility and result in a scenario similar to the post-2007 legitimacy crisis but the country forges ahead in spite of reservations; and we do have a crisis possibility in which there is instability and disruption of governance. All the first three scenarios are possible, and the fourth is not impossible! Broadly speaking 2011 may be a turning point for Nigeria’s transformation, or if mismanaged it could lead to trying times and redefine Nigeria’s future!! I am optimistic that Nigeria will choose transformation over instability!!!

Over the next four weeks, I will be reviewing the scorecards of the major presidential candidates-incumbent President Dr Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); former military Head of State General Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC); former EFCC Chairman Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN); and outgoing Kano State Governor Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). I acknowledge the presence of at least four other candidates-Professor Pat Utomi of the Social Democratic Mega Party (SDMP); Mr John Dara of the National Transformation Party (NTP); Mr Dele Momodu of National Conscience Party (NCP) and Reverend Kris Okotie of the Fresh Democratic Party (FDP). This analysis will not include them not because of their suitability or otherwise, but because they or their parties are unlikely to significantly affect the electoral outcome.

I intend to adopt an objective and systematic approach to the analysis so I have devised a scoring system based on 10 criteria-personal qualities; vision and leadership; policy platform and manifesto; economic management; anti-corruption; international relations; national unity and stability; democracy and institution-building; human rights, press freedom and open society; and administration and execution. The assessment will primarily be of the presidential candidates based on the reality of our constitutional executive presidency and I will award ten marks for each of these criteria summing up to 100. As is well-known in the US system which our constitution mirrors, while the running-mate may damage or assist the candidate, the voters understand that it is the president that governs. I will however include ten bonus marks for the candidates’ choice of running-mate based on whatever value they could potentially add to the presidency.

The scorecard elements reflect what I think are our national imperatives. The need for leadership with commitment, integrity, vision, and understanding of policy and developmental challenges of the Nigerian nation; the need for economic transformation of Nigeria in terms of infrastructure (particularly power and transportation), social investment in education, health, housing and employment, macro-economic stability and improving investment climates; the need to tackle corruption through leadership, policies, economic transformation, building opportunity, institutions and social safety nets and effective law enforcement; sustaining and expanding Nigeria’s international relationships and leadership role in ECOWAS, Africa, the Commonwealth and the world and attracting foreign direct investment; maintaining national unity, cohesion, stability, secularity, defence and security and evolving a truly federal system of co-equal people and federating units as well as restoring enduring peace in the Niger-Delta, Jos and the Borno region; deepening democracy, avoiding authoritarianism and building institutions; maintaining and expanding human rights and fundamental freedoms, including freedom of information and the press; finally I believe plans and manifestoes are nothing if the leadership lacks administrative competence and execution. In respect of the running-mates, I will specifically examine whether they obviate the candidates’ weaknesses and/or add tangible value to the ticket.

The evaluations I will present reflect my personal opinions, but I will seek to be objective and base all analysis on facts and verifiable positions, the antecedents of the candidates and the political reality around them. I will discount political propaganda, myths, unsubstantiated positions, sentiments and wishful thinking. I will, before presenting each candidates scorecard, review all available information about the candidate and present my own deductions and overall assessment of the candidate such that the basis for my rating will be explicit and apparent to all. I guarantee that no rational person will be able to fault any statements of fact included in my analysis. I understand of course that partisans may not agree even with facts!

I believe Nigerian democracy can still not be taken for granted. Our constitution is still evolving; our democratic rights and fundamental freedoms are yet to mature; significant investments in infrastructure and social services are yet required; and national and societal values require reform. We have important economic choices and decisions either yet to be made or still in early implementation stages and our position in the world is still unsettled. I am not as sanguine as many I listen to these days about how easy it is to redress a wrong choice of leader. Accordingly I believe Nigerians should base leadership selection in the April 2011 elections on a careful review of “balanced scorecard” of those aspiring to lead us, and not on anger, sentiments or whimsical considerations. This series is my contribution in that regard.