The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a centrist, non-ideological “rally” has dominated Nigerian democracy since 1999. Having controlled the presidency, National Assembly and most state governorships and legislative houses for 12 years, it often has not acted as if it fully appreciates the weight of its moral and political responsibility! PDP can claim to be the party of national unity (evidently the bonds of power and money are deeper than tribe, tongue and faith!), economic reform and international acceptance. In the South-South, North-Central and South-East, PDP is the default party, and in the North, it is often the party of the mainstream establishment.
Ex-President Obasanjo reformed telecommunications; negotiated Nigeria’s re-acceptance into the international community and restored a sense of nationhood that dangerously tethered on the edge during Abacha’s days of terror. In his second term, Obasanjo assembled a strong economic team leading to the elimination of Nigerian foreign debt; pension reforms; banking consolidation; macroeconomic stability and strong fiscal management. He was less successful on social reforms with education, health and social infrastructure remaining sub-optimal and poverty endemic. Even though he eventually developed the right template for power sector reforms (Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005), Obasanjo failed in its implementation. Umaru Yar’adua’s tenure recorded only one major achievement-the Niger-Delta amnesty.
The PDP’s greatest failings are the quality of democratic practice, shameful elections conducted in 2003 and 2007 and deepening of corruption in Nigeria. Fortunately for the party, its opponents cannot claim substantive qualitative difference as politicians cross from party to party opportunistically such that sensible voters have now learnt to evaluate candidates for political office on the basis of individual assessments. When President Goodluck Jonathan became substantive president in May 2010, just 10 months ago, I wrote “Memo to Goodluck Jonathan” in which I argued (consistent with opinions expressed by other commentators and newspaper editorials) that given the short time at his disposal, he should concentrate on limited priorities-power, electoral reform and Niger-Delta. On each of these, the president scores an A!
He unveiled an excellent power sector road map designed to place the sector under private sector ownership and management; and executed it leading to expressions of interest from over 331 credible local and international investors. I will personally like Jonathan and Professor Barth Nnaji to conclude the implementation of this road map!!! Especially as his main opponents do not seem to understand what is required to reform the sector. In the short term, power production has reportedly risen to 4,000 MW. Current oil production figures of 2.6million barrels per day are a clear indicator of success of Jonathan’s Niger-Delta policy, (in spite of the activities of a strange “MEND” whose strategic objectives seem to tally with those of the “Northern Political Leaders Forum” (NPLF) rather than the Niger-Delta!!!)
Jonathan appointed Professor Attahiru Jega INEC chairman and has conducted fairly credible elections in Anambra (where PDP lost) and Delta States. He provided every funding requested by INEC and freed up the political space, including by restoring ACN candidate Nuhu Ribadu’s AIG rank and permitting him and Nasir El-Rufai return from exile.
I do not know the point at which public opinion (or mass hysteria?) evolved into expecting Jonathan to solve in ten months all the problems of the Nigerian state accumulated over 5o years of independence, a clearly irrational expectation!!! But surprisingly Jonathan has recorded other successes. Education-new national secondary curriculum; highest budgetary allocation for education in 2011 budget proposals; a policy of establishing centres for entrepreneurial development in all federal universities; “Almajiri” education policy; and establishment of nine new federal universities; transportation-revival of rail systems; upgrading the Enugu airport to international status; achieving total radar coverage and US Category 3 status permitting resumption of direct flights; new terminal building at Aminu Kano Airport Kano; labour-new minimum wage and constitutional amendment on National Industrial Court.
Gas and Energy-“gas revolution” policy framework for leveraging gas for industrialisation; $3bn Oando/AGIP gas processing plant; petrochemical plant and several fertiliser plants in conjunction with foreign investors; refineries reportedly working at capacity and absence of fuel queues; roads-multiple ongoing road projects, including East-West and Coastal Road; citizens engagement on Facebook and proactive actions to rescue Nigerians in Egypt and Libya; revival of textile sector through government support; several industrial intervention funds for aviation, SMEs, entertainment, manufacturing, power etc; foreign policy-sensible diplomatic posture leading to strong roles in ECOWAS, UN and bilateral relations. Despite permutations, he united the PDP behind him trouncing the formidable Atiku Abubakar during the party’s primaries. In spite of severe provocations, he successfully navigated minefields during the Yar’adua vacuum and thereafter. He may yet deliver on important legislations-Sovereign Wealth Fund, Freedom of Information, and Petroleum Industry Bills and has already passed AMCON, minimum wage and money laundering/anti-terrorism bills.
Jonathan can claim to be the candidate of national unity, a federation of co-equal nationalities and national integration, freedom and openness, power sector reform, education and critical infrastructure. His major weakness is his party, but in spite of that, I think he is the sensible choice in these elections! I score him 7 for personal qualities; 6 on vision and leadership; 7 for policy platform and manifesto; 6 on economic management; 4 on anti-corruption; 8 for international relations; 8 on national unity and stability; 8 on democracy and institution-building; 7 for human rights, press freedom and open society; 6 for administration and execution and 6 bonus marks for his running-mate totalling 73 out of a possible 110 marks.
1 comment:
OA, I am glad you have finally completed your scorecards on the top 4 contestants. I would have loved to draw comparisons to the scorecards of the other candidates but I think GEJ’s flaws based on his scorecard are sufficient enough.
First of all, on the issue of power, we cannot afford to separate GEJ from his party who have failed to execute the ‘excellent road maps’ churned out by the PDP in the form of the Electric Power Sector Reform Bill passed in 2003. GEJ as VP under the late Yaradua was part and parcel of the same FG that promised Nigerians 6000MW by December 2009. After spending approximately $6.3 bn on rural electrification projects with nothing to show for it, I am unconvinced by any initiative on power coming from anything PDP. GEJ himself acknowledged the fact that Nigeria needs investments in power generating capacity alone of at least US$ 3.5 billion per annum for the next 10 years to meet the 20:2020 target of 40,000MW. Yet he has embarked on a spending spree depleting the ECA funds to a paltry $300M approx. What funding plan has he put in place for this annual requirement? I have gone through his power sector reform document and I am surprised to discover that the source of funds required for investments worth about N2.7bn approx. (and a host of other lump sums running into several billions of naira) are not provided for. However, the due date for some of these investments/projects are as near as June 2011. Furthermore on this power issue, the following are some of the milestones that are to have been achieved by April 2011: “privatization of GenCos Asset sale, handover, negotiation and signing of final agreement, concluding outstanding Genco transactions (Egbin&Sapele) etc”. Have these milestones been reached? If not, we are on another mirage as far as regular power supply is concerned.
On GEJ’s Niger-Delta policy, I believe his success should be measured by a much more robust parameter including environmental impact and infrastructural development in that region rather than a mere index of increased oil production. On education, let’s not even go there. Nigeria currently has 63 inadequately funded & poorly equipped federal and state universities, yet GEJ thinks the solution is to establish a federal university in every state??? A paltry sum of N10bn was recently released by the FG to take care of start-up costs for SIX federal universities. That is barely above the cost of funding Cambridge University’s central library! Similarly, GEJ has promised to establish domestic airports in every state to facilitate ‘economic development and movement of goods’. For me, it was at this point I gave up on GEJ. At a time when airlines are folding up and the Benin-Ore, Lagos-Ibadan roads are decaying, does this sound like a sensible proposition? Are the current domestic airports being fully utilized? Will a farmer in the north or a trader in the east move his/her goods by air or by road/rail?
On corruption and accountability, how do you explain GEJ’s hastiness to share about $1bn to the 3 tiers of government in December 2010? At a time that oil prices are increasing globally, our external reserves as well as the ECA are on a steady decline.
OA, I have said before that I am surprised at your political leanings as far as these elections are concerned. However, I am constrained to respect your choice. As per the mass hysteria you allege, yes there is a bit of hysteria out there, but you cannot blame the teeming youth for their pessimism towards the ruling party as they have seen promises broken again and again. The last time Nigeria experienced positive change that affected the common man was when the OBJ administration launched the GSM. If we assess GEJ objectively by his performance so far (either as DG, Gov, VP, C-In-C), his best score would be fair. If we examine his promises/plans, they are mere rhetorics like some of the other candidates. April 9 is around the corner, I hope you will ‘press ya hand’ in the best place.
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