Until the protests in Tunisia and Egypt, it was safe to surmise that there was some incompatibility between Arab (and perhaps) Islamic societies and democracy. With few exceptions (Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq), Arab countries were either monarchies, military or one-man dictatorships. Those three exceptions actually re-enforced the argument-Iraqi democracy was imposed by US neo-conservatives and remains unstable; democracy was forced on the Palestinians by the Arab-Israeli peace process; and Lebanon is hardly an example of how democracy is supposed to work. In all three, democracy carries a very high price tag-chaos, instability, political assassinations, the presence of an Islamic movement that threatened to overthrow or undermine the democratic system etc.
Until Tunisia! Tunisia is not yet a democracy, but its people have chased erstwhile President Ben Ali into exile. The ancien regime struggled to hijack the revolution, but the people have stayed steadfast, insisting that the former president’s entourage leave the incipient cabinet. What I found striking is that the whole Arab/Islamic revolutionary democratic wave was sparked by the actions of one desperate Tunisian, Muhammad Bouazizi who, fed up with unemployment, poverty and capricious government , set himself on fire! I do not support suicide in any form, even as an incitement to revolution or as a form of political protest, but his action proves one point-change cannot come except people are willing to pay the price. On international broadcast channels on Sunday February 20, I saw a man who had lost a son in the Bahraini crisis declare he was willing to sacrifice not just that son, but himself and four others for change and reform in his country!
I have called attention in the past to the Nigerian contrast which Fela sang about-“I no wan die, papa dey for house, mama dey for house, I wan build house, I wan buy car…” Like Fela also sang, our people fear those things they see, and even those they don’t see! And the prospect of popular revolution in Nigeria may be short-circuited by any hint of ethnic or religious colouration or agenda to the revolt or its leadership. But back to the Arabs whose turn it is to capture global imagination by their courage and desire for reform. I must confess I did not think Hosni Mubarak could be toppled by the protesters, until after the crowds continued to increase in Tahrir Square in Cairo after more than two weeks of the revolt. No analysis of Egyptian politics or history could have predicted the turn of events, precisely because it was a revolutionary and unprecedented moment! All templates for projecting scenarios in Egypt and indeed the Arab world were rendered redundant because this was a new, uncharted Egypt!
In spite of the distance I shared the pride and sense of accomplishment of many ordinary Egyptians who spoke to CNN, BBC, Al Jazeerah and other global media and sensed as they did that indeed, Egypt and the whole of Arabia may have changed for ever! But it is not over! The old order is giving way, but the new is yet to be defined. Western, Israeli and democratic activists’ fears that the revolution may be hijacked by elements of the departing regimes, the military or Islamists for instance are not completely unfounded. Some analysts have noted that the popular revolution against the Shah of Iran was taken over by the clerics and essentially today’s Iran is as undemocratic as pre-revolutionary Iran. It was ironic observing Iranian ambiguous response to the Egyptian crisis-on the one hand, they may have been happy to see Mubarak’s back and to increase pressure on Israel; on the other hand, revolutionary ferment was rising in Iran itself and the demonstrations in Cairo were likely to be repeated in Teheran!
Now the call for democracy and change is being heard across other Arab societies-Yemen; Bahrain; Morocco; Libya; Algeria; and Jordan. Most surprisingly the loudest noises are in Libya where one may have felt the strongman Ghaddafi had successfully silenced all opposition; and Bahrain where living standards were high and the country’s monarchy would have been considered safe. The protesters who were crushed in post-election demonstrations in Iran last time are also stirring again having received encouragement. Clearly the model of the strongman appears to be expiring in Arabia and the regimes will have to look to non-Arab Islamic examples like Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia which have prospered as democratic societies whether of the secular model (Turkey) or more sectarian options (Indonesia and Malaysia). Hopefully they would not evolve into dysfunctional democracies ala Pakistan!
Beyond the current centres of agitation, the effects of the current wave will be felt elsewhere-Kuwait like Bahrain and other Arab monarchies will have to move towards becoming constitutional monarchies; Iraq and Afghanistan will have more incentive to proceed as democracies rather than follow the Taliban option; the strongmen in Syria and Sudan will in due course receive their own pressure; and Israel will have to quickly resolve the Palestine question or else it will have a potentially explosive and defining “Intifada” on its hands! One day the wave of reform and democracy will spread to Saudi Arabia! Newly democratic Arab countries may become more enterprising and vibrant and should secure a greater voice in global politics and economics. The conclusion from all of these is clear-Freedom is universal and even China may have to make some decisions!
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