Chibok, WEFA and #BringBackOurGirls

In the wake of GDP rebasing, what was meant to be Nigeria’s “coming-out party”, the World Economic Forum for Africa (WEFA) held in Abuja from May 7-9, 2014 was over-shadowed by Nyanya bombings 1 and 2 on April 14 and May 1, and the global #BringBackOurGirls campaign over the 234 Chibok school girls abducted by “Boko Haram” also on April 14. What could have been our moment of glory became less glory and more embarrassment due to a combination of cynical deployment of “political terrorism” and government naivety and incompetence. President Jonathan’s governing credibility suffered massive domestic and global erosion and his administration was left looking callous, insensitive and detached from reality! The Nigerian government’s shocking tolerance (even inoculation borne out of timidity, political naiveté and apparent internal sabotage) and ambivalence for terror, kidnapping and death by “Boko Haram” and “Fulani Herdsmen” since 2009 came home to haunt at its most vulnerable moment-with global media attention focused on Nigeria for WEFA 2014. The sensible hypothesis has to be that terror was deployed as an instrument of political strategy in Nigeria and an out-of-touch and distracted government fell right into it! Government dithered and vacillated over appropriate responses to Boko Haram terrorism when it started in 2009 and only after 4,000 people were dead years later, and massive destruction wrought by the bloodthirsty terrorists that a state of emergency was declared in the North-East in May 2013. At a point the Nigerian government was actually persuaded (along with the US State Department under Hillary Clinton) that its best interest was served by not designating Boko Haram a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) apparently on the contradictory logic that doing so would alienate the North from the Nigerian and United States governments. That logic made no sense since leading Northerners had stressed over and over again that Boko Haram represented neither Northern Nigeria nor Islam! It was only after severe escalation and Clinton left the State Department that the US declared the terrorist group a FTO! Ditto “Fulani Herdsmen” which killed thousands across central Nigeria for several years before a serious military onslaught was authorised just weeks ago! In 2014 alone, Boko Haram has murdered an estimated 2,000 additional citizens plus a rising death toll from mysterious “herdsmen” who carried AK 47s and in at least one case in Benue State, allegedly chemical weapons! The combined casualty from both groups (the military now say they were really one group (!) which like a multi-product company adopted two different brands for different geographical markets-“Boko Haram” in the North-East and “Fulani Herdsmen” in Central Nigeria) may now have topped 10,000 unfortunate Nigerians in less than five years!!! In the particular case of the Chibok schoolgirls’ abduction, it seems evident that security agencies convinced the Presidency that the abduction may have been an opposition (Borno State Government) hoax to stop its Kano PDP rally and derail its political momentum prompting initial nonchalance and absence of a robust military response. It also appears that the military may have been (deliberately?) tardy in its response perhaps an indication of frustration over perceived politicisation of terrorism and may have subtly ignored Chibok to demonstrate its unhappiness, except of course if the army simply lacked the men and materials to respond appropriately. The President’s comments in his media interview two weeks after the abductions; his wife’s public comments; and statements by leading government people, including Akwa Ibom Governor Akpabio all suggest they were not convinced an abduction really took place. No one expected the matter to degenerate into a global campaign! Today there seems to be no doubt that 276 girls were actually captured by the Islamic terrorists and 234 remain unaccounted for. It also seems clear that the abducted girls were predominantly if not entirely Christians while most of those who were reported to have “escaped” may have been Moslem girls released by the terrorists. The saga raises questions about the integrity of our security infrastructure and the quality and veracity of intelligence and information reaching the presidency. It also calls to question the role of the National Security Adviser, Inspector General of Police and Defense Minister, as well as army GOC in the region in compromising the safety and security of our citizens and bringing this country to global disrepute. The President in particular has been advertised on the global stage as “derelict” in his responsibility to protect our citizens and his global reputation has been greatly dented. It remains to be seen how #Chibok234 and #BringBackOurGirls will affect the 2015 elections, but it is clear that President Jonathan may have lost a “few” votes. On the other hand, elections are still several months away and he can still win some back! Beyond the unfortunate Chibok affair, the WEFA Abuja 2014 appears to have gone reasonably well in the circumstances. Global investors will shrug off outrage over the Chibok affair and quietly continue investing (in Southern Nigeria (!) unfortunately, until terrorism ends) while aid money will accelerate the trend towards the Northern half. According to news reports, 1070 business and political leaders from 70 countries attended WEFA with the Chinese pledging additional $10bn credit (totaling $30bn) plus additional $2bn in China-Africa Development Fund (totaling $5bn) and a coastal rail project in Nigeria; development partners committed $2bn into Nigeria’s power sector; and agriculture commitments for Nigeria reached $4bn. For now however, the priority must be ensuring that each and everyone of the 234 girls who remain with Boko Haram are returned to their families.