Some analysts are ambivalent about Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former Lagos State Governor and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) grandmaster. He has been embroiled in the rough and tumble of Nigerian politics such that it may be difficult to extricate him from the associated deal making, graft, cronyism and gerrymandering. While core ACN members revere him, some voters, intellectuals and civil society may resent the perception that he almost single-handedly selects majority of ACN candidates for elected and appointive officers. The suspicion that he and/or his loyalists may consider dispensing with popular Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola upsets many, especially non-career politicians. The old controversies about his education, background and EFCC/US legal problems lurk in some minds.
I can understand that ambivalence. On one hand, in both elections Tinubu contested as Alliance for Democracy (AD) governorship candidate, I voted for him and legislative candidates presented by the parties. Incidentally I also voted for Tinubu as Senator during the Babangida transition.I supported Fashola, his nominee for the governorship in 2007. Ideologically I consider myself a progressive social democrat and endorse the focus on education, health, urban mass transit, infrastructure and social investment, the traditional AG/UPN/SDP/AD/ACN platform. And I have always recognised especially after Obasanjo’s sleight-of-hand against the AD in 2003 that Tinubu was the sole force that could roll-back the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) undemocratic control of Yoruba land, especially during the Yar’adua Presidency when the South-West became de facto political orphans!
But I was also concerned that ACN has not sufficiently distinguished itself from the PDP and ANPP-lack of internal democracy; corruption and abuse of office; electoral malpractices; and failure to institute true people-oriented politics and governance are unfortunately common to all our major political parties. In my view, while PDP clearly did not win elections in the South-West in 2003 and 2007, it got away with stealing power because the AD leadership had taken the voters for granted. Majority of AD governments were incompetent, complacent, arrogant and uninspiring thus providing space to the PDP.
With current developments, we must all re-evaluate the Bola Tinubu phenomenon. Since his entry into politics, Tinubu has exercised decisive influence on his environment. I recall a brother who participated in the Sarumi faction during the tumultuous Sarumi/Agbalajobi battles in the Lagos State Social Democratic Party (SDP), always spoke about a certain Bola Tinubu’s whose entry galvanised the group and strengthened the faction’s hand. Tinubu was subsequently elected to the Senate in 1992 reportedly with the largest votes nationwide and became one of the most influential senators as Chairman of the powerful omnibus Banking, Finance, Appropriations and Currency Committee. Another brother who attended the SDP convention at which Chief MKO Abiola was chosen as presidential candidate in 1993 spoke about a hyperactive and ubiquitous Senator from Lagos whose presence could not be missed!
Tinubu subsequently became a pillar of the “June 12 Movement” which sought to actualise Abiola’s annulled June 12 mandate and later the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) which fought Abacha’s dictatorship. He was a foremost NADECO strategist and leader-in-exile and was compensated by the NADECO/Afenifere leadership which formed the Alliance for Democracy (AD) as Lagos State Governor in 1999. To Tinubu’s credit, he has always seemed comfortable in the midst of intellectuals and accomplished professionals, putting together a cabinet which included Yemi Osinbajo, Olawale Edun, Yemi Cardoso, Dr Leke Pitan, Dele Alake, Tunji Bello, Dr Adebayo Adewusi etc. Perhaps it is partly access to robust quality debate and strategic advice that accounts for his administration’s policy initiatives, his political survival and the ACN’s recent successes.
Tinubu took on many political battles-quarrels with his deputies-Kofo Bucknor-Akerele and Femi Pedro, and the Afenifere leadership, who then opposed his re-election in 2003 through Ganiyu Dawodu and the Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA); since 2003 he has sponsored friends and associates seeking political positions throughout the South-West; unending political and legal battles with Obasanjo and the PDP; taking on the responsibility of building a national opposition party; and his choice of Fashola as successor angered some wealthy supporters who sponsored Jimi Agbaje to run instead. These activities may have distracted his administration from accomplishing its ambitious development goals, but they are now clearly bearing fruit!
Fashola has vindicated his judgment; relentless battles to regain the South-West from PDP has seen Kayode Fayemi and Rauf Aregbesola take over in Ekiti and Osun States respectively; the take-over of Adams Oshiomole (ACN) and Segun Mimiko (Labour Party) in Edo and Ondo States bear his imprint; PDP is now effectively a minority party in Yoruba land holding vulnerably to Oyo and Ogun States; Tinubu is believed to be aiding DPP’s efforts to win the Sokoto governorship through the courts; and ACN is gaining membership across the country. Tinubu is now undoubtedly the pre-eminent political leader in Yoruba land and effective leader of opposition nationally, in effect laying claim to the mantle of Awolowo!
How will Tinubu use this power? Will he mold ACN into a truly progressive, social democratic alternative to the PDP? Will he be an enduring transformational leader, a transitional or situational figure or tragic hero? Will his protégés deliver governance that differentiates ACN from others and attracts other Nigerians to the party? Will he make the right choices in 2011 or might he make grave strategic miscalculations? How will history record him? Whatever you think about him, there must be something about this Bola Tinubu!!!
1 comment:
Having never met this Bola Tinubu fellow, my comments are based on my review of his public life. In that respect, my view is that he is an outstanding political leader. He has total immersion in the life of his community such that he has dense roots in the political forest. He is also supremely self-confident, able to attract excellent people to his cause and empower then to forge out on their own. He is independent of mind and not gullible. He understands the limits of 'formal' power and uses more informal authority to retain loyalty and seek allegiances. He is also a good judge of character who is able to identify early signs of failure in the long political struggle. He also understands one thing - politics is about results. And that is the greater challenge for the Action Congress governments because it is a matter of when not if Bola Tinubu's ascendancy will lead to nation-wide acceptance. In that event, he and his group will have helped set up the first truly national social democratic party in Nigeria with nationwide acceptance based on the ideals of good governance and ability to deliver the dividends of democracy. I doff my hat for the Asiwaju and wish him well.
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