The “Northern Political Leaders Forum” (NPLF) led by Mallam Adamu Ciroma did not surprise me with their choice of Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as their “Northern consensus candidate” to challenge President Goodluck Jonathan for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential ticket in 2011. I recall a senior editor friend mentioning some weeks back that the NPLF was an Atiku stratagem to outwit his likely Northern rivals and Jonathan in grabbing Nigeria’s Presidency. My own review of most of the so-called “wise men” charged with selecting the NPLF’s candidate showed in most cases a clear link with Atiku. The Forum’s selection criteria also seemed designed to produce only one outcome-Atiku’s candidacy. The surprise is that perennial National Security Adviser General Aliyu Gusau, outgoing Kwara State Governor and Chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum Dr Bukola Saraki and particularly ex-President Ibrahim Babangida (IBB), fell for it! Has the “maradona” magic been lost or was it in reality a “maradona” myth?
I hope the NPLF’s consensus marriage will live happily ever after, even though quite frankly I don’t expect it to! Ciroma and his colleagues adopted a model of leadership selection previously used by the Afenifere which in the run up to the 1999 elections picked Chief Olu Falae over Afenifere Deputy Leader, Chief Bola Ige. The parallels are striking-an ethnic grouping (NPLF/Afenifere) empanels a committee which purports to pick a candidate for a nationally-registered political party (PDP/Alliance for Democracy-AD). The aspirants are regional giants one of whom (IBB/Ige) is entitled to regard himself as presumptive nominee by virtue of seniority, long relationship with the selectors and entrenchment within the ethnic power structure. The “wise men” however select a “junior” aspirant (Atiku/Falae) and the perceived betrayal leads to accusations of treachery, bitterness and distrust which destroy the ethnic grouping’s internal cohesion. That exercise sowed the seeds for the end of Afenifere as we knew it. Let’s hope the NPLF’s fate will be different!
The other consequence was that the rest of the country declined to accept the Afenifere’s choice as national president been tainted irretrievably with an ethnic brush. President Jonathan quite wisely has started reminding the nation to “support the Nigerian consensus candidate” instead of accepting a “Northern consensus” or even the more narrow “NPLF Consensus” since it is probable that the choice of Atiku (unlike Afenifere’s choice of Falae) may not command unanimous Northern support. The NPLF’s process may also be strategically inferior to Afenifere’s in that Afenifere controlled the AD and already had an understanding with then All Peoples Party (APP) now All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) that AD’s candidate would be the AD/APP alliance’s joint presidential candidate. The NPLF does not control the PDP and their nominee will yet have to overcome an incumbent president (and a Northern Vice-President) to secure the party ticket!
Having said that I hope the Goodluck-Sambo team does not overdo their jubilation over what they view as the NPLF’s sub-optimal selection of Atiku. IBB may have been formidable due to his national network of relationships; and a contest against Saraki may have been particularly unpredictable due to his hold over the Governors; but Atiku is no less formidable. Atiku has a vast political network; he is a pragmatic political strategist; and can easily build a nationwide organisation. He is good at cutting back-room political deals and while he and his Yar’adua Group have never quite built strong grassroots popularity, they have always been successful at intra-party scheming and manoeuvring. That is why General Yar’adua’s Peoples Front outwitted the Progressives within the Social Democratic Party (SDP) during the Babangida transition and the renamed Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) led by Atiku after Yar’adua’s death, sidelined other groups in the PDP until the quarrel between Obasanjo and Atiku weakened the PDM base.
Atiku’s disadvantages-perceived lack of principle and consistency; and unending allegations of corruption are likely to be more harmful in a general election rather than intra-party primaries. Some may even argue that having a reputation for corruption may in fact be an advantage in the PDP primaries!!! If I were President Jonathan and his campaign strategists, we would cut short our celebrations, return to our war room and begin to reach out to actual convention delegates. Nevertheless while the NPLF route has strengthened Atiku’s chances as a PDP aspirant, it may have weakened his long-term positioning as a potential Nigerian president. Why should the school teacher in Oshogbo vote for Northern consensus? Why should a fisherman in Warri or Calabar accept that the Nigerian President should be selected by nine Northerners? Is the Middle-belt civil servant or Southern Kaduna farmer likely to endorse this choice? What stake has the lawyer or medical doctor in Enugu in this choice? And why should Northerners outside the NPLF accept its self-appointed role as leadership selectors for the whole region or the country?
The fear in some quarters that the NPLF is merely using the zoning argument in seeking to retain hegemony has been aided by reports of NPLF leader, Mallam Adamu Ciroma’s role as Chairman of the Governing Council of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU). Ciroma apparently sought to prevent Professor Andrew Nok (a Northerner from a minority area), who came clearly tops in the selection process for ABU’s Vice Chancellorship from been appointed in favour of an unqualified person from his own ethnic group. Can such an individual be trusted to select Nigeria’s president?
No comments:
Post a Comment