Nigerian and American Scenarios Part 2

What does this mean for Nigeria? Is the Obama phenomenon possible in Nigeria? If Barack had been born in Nigeria, would the system have given him the opportunity to project himself to his present position? Would he have been able to retain his principles while doing so? If Obama’s father had taken him back to Kenya, where would he be today? A frustrated law professor in University of Nairobi? An exiled dissident? A labour leader, social activist or civil society activist? A journalist or newspaper columnist crying like a lone voice in the wilderness? A disgruntled opposition leader? A depressed poet or intellectual who takes solace in alcohol and drugs? Or perhaps unable to beat them, might he have joined in corruption, election rigging, occultism, violence and maladministration forgoing previous lofty ideals? Nigeria and Africa must rise to the real lesson of the Obama revolution and begin to create a new, truly democratic society that gives opportunity through education and other social infrastructure to all their citizens, and allows the best of our society, and not the most venal, sycophantic, base and unprincipled to rise to positions of leadership.

Which brings me to the current outlook for Nigeria. If you were a scenario thinker, what scenarios would you be thinking about currently? Are they hopeful or troubling scenarios? First you would have to be projecting an end-game in the Niger-Delta. I have written recently (“The Trouble in the Niger-Delta”-August 13) about the situation in the region and stated my views about the way out. But the present state of things offers little hope. It looks increasingly like the Nigerian state is stumbling into disaster in the region. Possibilities include a total breakdown of law and order, full scale outbreak of military hostilities, or diminished or lost sovereignty. I suspect that one day, the Nigerian state will offer the region 75 per cent derivation and it may be too late.

The worst case “Sharia” scenario may appear to have receded somewhat, but perhaps appearances may be deceptive. It still seems to me that left to millions of people up north, having being denied education and prosperity; they will rather live in a society governed in line with full scale application of Islamic law as they increasingly equate their leaders’ inability to provide them a worthwhile existence with non-adherence to Allah’s injunctions. And today, the only context in which the northern urban poor have a voice is when they speak in the name of God. The governors in the region may have attempted to blunt and deflect this desire with half-hearted (what Obasanjo called “Political Sharia”) Sharia but may be the chicken will come home to roost someday. You either educate the children in the North, reduce poverty and improve the quality of life in the region or we will have to deal with some revolutionary upheaval tainted with religion someday.

More immediate scenarios revolve around the presidency. What will the Supreme Court say about the 2007 elections when it finally considers the petitions filed by Atiku Abubakar and Muhammadu Buhari? If the Court nullifies the election, Nigeria will be walking in uncharted waters as the Senate President may be called upon to conduct a fresh election. That would place Brigadier-General David Mark in Aso Rock at least for a while. David Mark was an insider in the shuffling, scheming and plotting of military politics that we saw from 1983 to 1999 spanning the Buhari, Babangida and Abacha regimes. And he emerged from it all a consummate survivor who has been a power broker in the Senate since the return to democracy. That would also give Buhari, Atiku, Babangida and perhaps others such as Babagana Kingibe, Olusola (or even Bukola) Saraki or Peter Odili an opportunity to mount a now or never challenge for the Presidency. In a context in which there is no legitimate regime-in-power such a scenario may have several levers of in-built instability.

What of issues of presidential succession if the office becomes vacant by other means? The Hausa-Fulani North has waited impatiently for Obasanjo’s eight years to “have our power back”. Will they have faith in the constitutionally prescribed mode of succession in which a Southern vice-president ascends to the Presidency? Would some seek to short-circuit the constitution and thus create a new “June 12” scenario? Would the Ijaws and the entire Niger-Delta not have a strengthened argument for “resource control” or even worse if the constitution is disregarded in such cavalier manner? What is the strategic import of the recent changes in the leadership of the Armed Forces? Do they have any bearing with these issues and possibilities? What of the abolishment of the office of Chief of Staff and cleaning up of the Aso Rock bureaucracy? Is there a strategic positioning of forces going on? Why? Why is the PDP’s own publicity secretary flying a kite about treason and threats against the state? On whose behalf is he testing which waters?

The import of these questions is that there are distinctly troubling possibilities if like me you enjoy projecting into the future. While America is preparing to elect as president a man whose father was a Kenyan student, we may actually be preparing to take a big step backwards, and endanger the gains we have recorded since 1999. As I was writing this, the Republicans who were praying for rain to disturb Obama’s open air speech are having to re-jig their own convention as Hurricane Gustav threatens Loiusiana reminding us to be careful what we pray or scheme for as our schemes sometimes blow up in our faces. God help Nigeria.