Yar'adua's Renaissance?

It is amazing how the prognosis has shifted concerning the Yar’adua Presidency in just one week! When it was first reported that President Yar’adua had undertaken a trip to Saudi Arabia for the lesser hajj, just after replacing the service chiefs, I immediately started asking myself questions, even before the escalated rumours about his health began to circulate. Why did he replace the service chiefs? Was there more to the decision? Wasn’t he supposed to be quite close to General Azazi? Why did he feel compelled to fire him as defence chief? And of course I wondered whether it was just lesser hajj, or whether a trip to some Saudi hospital was not on the cards.

So I was not terribly surprised when I saw an on-line report in Sahara Reporters suggesting that our president was really in hospital. And then the president went quiet…and quiet… and still quiet, while Nigerians and the whole world wondered what was going on. In the information vacuum, the rumour mill and “scenario planning” began to swirl. I was a guest on CNBC Africa last Monday precisely to discuss those matters and of course this column last week began to examine leadership succession scenarios. And of course, it does appear that most of the “succession planning” was happening right inside the presidency, with the president’s own cabinet and government secretary touted to be the planner-in-chief!

When it was reported that the president had essentially (as one newspaper put it) sneaked into the country at 3am, some speculated not unreasonably that perhaps our dear leader had been on a wheelchair or stretcher, or at least he was not in a state to be seen by the public. Well we would never really know. By the time it was reported that the president would be at work last Monday I was clear in my mind that no such thing was likely to happen. I dismissed it as another doubtful statement that would prolong the uncertainty and lack of clarity about the true state of things concerning Yar’adua’s condition. And then the blitz. That morning, Yar’adua truly turned up at work and swore in the new service chiefs. And then fired Babagana Kingibe!

There was one part of me that had always wondered whether after Kingibe completed the accumulation of government power in the SGF’s office, someone else was not going to inherit the immense powers so amassed. And so it now turns out. Like I warned in this column last week, sometimes the best schemes blow up in the face of the schemer! And then the presidency announced a new government structure. By and large, I support the new structure, especially the creation of a ministry on Niger-Delta, which I hope will accelerate infrastructural development and youth empowerment in the region. And of course also provide badly-needed political oversight for the NDDC.

I suspect the “unbundling” of the other ministries including power, police affairs, works, aviation, water resources, environment etc, was also probably justified. However I make the point that the underlying logic for the previous mergers remain valid-there is need for policy integration at the ministerial level in those ministries, and a new mechanism will have to be found to achieve that integration. For example, the minister of power needs coordination with the petroleum affairs ministry, particularly the gas segment of it, and the same can be said of all the others. I concede however that given the state of the Nigerian bureaucracy, the merged ministries may have become too unwieldy to move at the required speed.

And then the vice-president has inaugurated the Niger-Delta technical committee, and there appears to be finally some hope of the type of multi-track engagement-infrastructural investment, youth empowerment, dialogue and law enforcement that hopefully may make a difference in the troubled region. At the very least, this multi-track approach should reduce civil support for the militants and criminals who have now taken over in the Delta. Now the whole buzz is about an impending cabinet reshuffle. It appears Yar’adua has finally had enough of cabinet largely imposed on him by the governors and party chieftains and now seeks to create his own team that may share the new found sense of urgency.

The President can move quickly to reconstitute the cabinet, ensure prompt approval of his nominees for the Infrastructure Concessioning and Regulatory Commission (ICRC) and Fiscal Responsibility Commission, constitute the National Procurement Commission and then commence a rapid implementation of his government’s agenda. He can revert to a faith in private sector mechanisms particularly in respect of the power sector, ensure quick execution of his oil sector reforms and remove any impressions about a reducing commitment to anti-corruption. a lot can be done in just under three years, or whenever, and the president appears to have made up his mind to shake things up a bit. Now that Yar’adua appears to be finding his rhythm, let’s hope he will sustain the pace. opeyemiagbaje.blogspot.com

Agbaje is CEO of Resources and Trust Company Ltd, a strategy, consultancy and business advisory firm. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy division of the co