Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Biden cancels out McCain

Barack Obama announced his choice of vice-presidential nominee on Saturday morning. Contrary to many US analysts who have argued that the choice of vee-pee was not important, I have always felt that at least in the case of Obama, it would be a very critical decision. It gives Obama an opportunity to address voters’ concerns about his race, age, inexperience, and weakness on foreign policy and defence. It could be an opportunity to reach out to white, blue-collar, male and elderly voters an important voting bloc which had voted for Hillary in the democratic primary and had a possibility of going McCain in the general election. And it was also an opportunity to deal with the difficult decision of what to do with Hillary Clinton supporters who constituted almost fifty percent of democratic voters in the primaries.

Hilary Clinton remained my sentimental favourite for the job. Followers of this column will remember only too well my two articles on the so-called “Obama-Clinton” or “Clinton-Obama” dream ticket in which I leaned towards a joint-ticket of the two front-runners irrespective of who was at the head of the ticket. My initial preference for the top job was of course Hillary but I have since accepted (and enthusiastically too!) Obama’s candidacy and have become something of an advocate myself. And while my heart wanted Hillary as vice-president, my head knew it was unlikely to happen. Barack Obama was quite unlikely to want Hillary and Bill Clinton breathing down his neck and knowing that Hillary would still be looking towards another presidential run whenever the opportunity presents itself.

The fear that many Clinton-haters in the Republican Party would be energised by a Hillary nomination and thus further polarise the elections would have been another consideration against Hillary. Finally a friend of mine reminded me that the Kennedys who had turned over the family’s support to Barack Obama and one of whom was now in charge of the vee-pee pick were unlikely to re-empower their Clintonite rivals for influence within the Democratic Party by picking Hillary for the job. On the other hand, the continued disaffection of the large bloc of Clinton primary voters who may be crucial to an Obama victory in November was a strong argument for considering Hillary in spite of any misgivings. On a morbid note, I thought picking Hillary as vice-president may discourage any potential hit-men from planning to shoot a President Obama for fear of a worse outcome-a President Hillary Clinton!

I must mention by the way, that I have been disturbed by the trivialisation of the Obama candidacy by the “Corporate Nigeria” group whose previous notable political activity was their undisguised support for Obasanjo’s third-term. I suspect government may have to find new jobs for some of these people if we are to have more decorous and professional management of our stock exchange going forward. One of the things I find amusing about Nigerian society is the dissonance between the heros we claim and our behaviour. If you ask most Nigerian politicians who their political role models are, they are liable to mention Nelson Mandela, Lee Kuan Yew, Mahatma Ghandi and the like. Why I always wonder, don’t they make any effort to try to emulate these people?

In the end, Obama selected Senator Joe Biden of Delaware as his running-mate and prospective vice-president. Senator Biden, aged 65 is a veteran and heavy-weight in US Congressional politics and in the foreign policy establishment. He currently serves as Chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has chaired a Senate Judiciary sub-committee on crimes and drugs. He has been in the US Senate for 35 years and has himself run for President-first in 1988 and most recently in the race which yielded Obama as nominee. Even though Biden represents Delaware, a small state, his Pennsylvania roots and Irish, Roman Catholic background may be significant in other states.

Unlike McCain, Biden who has working-class roots may appeal to blue-collar whites, the sort who flocked to Hilary’s support and who may have tilted until now towards McCain. The most important contribution of Senator Biden to the Obama ticket however is in the re-assurance he offers to the foreign policy, defence and security establishment, and voters on whose minds those issues weigh most heavily, that the US Presidency under Obama will have the benefit of a voice as tested and knowledgeable as that of Biden when and if America’s relations with the world become the issue. When McCain seeks to remind Americans of Barack Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience, they can’t but notice that Joe Biden has that in abundance. In fact Biden has been in the Senate longer than McCain and as Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee can claim to know one or two things that McCain doesn’t know.

When McCain talks up issues like Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran and other potential trouble spots, the voters cannot fail to remember that Biden is very familiar with those issues. White, elderly and male voters will see Joe Biden and will hopefully be less worried about entrusting America to a still little-known African-American Senator with a tinge of Kenyan and Muslim roots. In short, Biden offers everything that McCain offers-pedigree, safety, experience and assurance, and more. In effect Biden should cancel out McCain in November, and that leaves us with Obama!

1 comment:

loomnie said...

Pretty tidy analysis.