"Before It Is Too Late"

The above title is borrowed from the famous letter written by ex-President Obasanjo to President Jonathan, which forms the subject of this article. On the substance of the issues raised by Obasanjo, I make the following preliminary points-Jonathan needs to do more to convince Nigerians and the international community that his government is not tolerant or even facilitative of corruption. The Alamieyesegha pardon and the determination to retain Stella Oduah in the face of damning allegations of fraud and criminal abuse of office are particularly odious examples of the regime’s reputation in this regard! Secondly the government needs a broader governing coalition to sustain national peace and stability. Anyone suggesting to the president that he can dispense with other ethnic groups and geo-political zones and govern and win re-election with support mainly from two out of six geo-political zones is deceiving him. Thirdly I strongly support the regime’s planned national conference and I urge Jonathan not to be distracted from the task of convening it. There are two classes of Nigerians-those who like Nigeria the way it is and think once they replace Jonathan, all is fine; and those who recognize that Nigeria as it currently operates is not sustainable and needs fundamental restructuring. We know what side Obasanjo, Babangida and other oligarchs belong to! It is not a credit to Obasanjo that he occupied the presidency for eight years and left Nigeria structurally unchanged, with the consequences we see today! Finally it is true that there is an African window of opportunity which Nigeria should seize and I note that some factors militating against that are created by Jonathan’s opponents (Boko Haram, post-2011 electoral violence, Fulani herdsmen in central Nigeria, social conditions in Northern Nigeria, non-passage of PIB etc) while Jonathan bears responsibility for others (oil sector mismanagement and corruption). Beyond these comments, I do not concede to Obasanjo the moral credibility to make most, if not all of the “allegations” he has presented against Jonathan! One I do not think Obasanjo’s interest contrary to his posturing is the national interest. My careful reading tells me this is in reality intra-elite power struggles in which disgruntled members of a clique who have arrogated to themselves control over Nigeria, finding themselves marginalized seek to reclaim their power and privileges. I am not impressed that Obasanjo apparently feels that Babangida, Abdulsalam and himself have sufficient moral authority with the Nigerian people to manipulate us in whatever direction they seek. Secondly, considering the specific offences Obasanjo alleges Jonathan has committed, it is difficult to find even one which Obasanjo himself was not guilty of, in a more grievous manner while in office! When Obasanjo sees a semblance between Jonathan and Abacha, he exaggerates-the emerging similarity may actually be Jonathan and Obasanjo! Obasanjo arranged with opposition senators to defeat his party’s choice for senate presidency, Chuba Okadigbo and Evan Enwerem was elected based on AD/APP votes. That process I am very reliably informed also involved a few “Ghana-must-go” bags! PDP members in Borno State complained persistently that Obasanjo had a secret understanding with Senator Ali Modu Sherrif which led to him undermining PDP in that state. Of course we all know the fate of Senator Ifeanyi Araurume, PDP’s candidate in Imo State who was dis-owned based on orders from Obasanjo’s presidency in favour of Ikedi Ohakim of PPA. With respect to Buruji Kashamu, it suffices to ask what the difference is between him and Chris Uba who became a member of PDP Board of Trustees in Obasanjo’s time and who notoriously executed a siege on the government of Anambra State without any consequences. When Obasanjo talks about dividing the country along North-South or Muslim-Christian lines, the principal culprits are his allies who made provocative statements about making Nigeria “ungovernable” and who have already threatened bloodshed were Jonathan to contest in 2015. Yes Asari Dokubo and Edwin Clark make unhelpful statements, but so do Junaid Muhammed, Lawal Kaita, Muhammadu Buhari, Yahaya Kwande, Nasir El-Rufai and others. We may also note that the families of Bola Ige, Harry Marshall and A.K Dikibo may wonder whether Obasanjo has moral standing to complain about killings which he fears may happen when those that actually happened under his watch remain unresolved. Even concerning security, Boko Haram and Niger-Delta militancy were both created during Obasanjo’s regime with two governors close to him (Odili and Modu Sherrif) implicated in their origins! Regarding corruption, Obasanjo cannot cast the first stone either. And it is somewhat of a shock to me that Obasanjo who got a second term, in spite of a similar alleged agreement to the contrary, and then sought an unconstitutional third term, can consider himself entitled to ask Jonathan to take “a more credible and more honourable path”. Having dispensed with Obasanjo’s sanctimonious hypocrisy, it remains for all Nigerians to ask President Jonathan for a full, detailed and comprehensive response to the allegations and particularly the following-is it true that his government has 1,000 people on “political watch list”? Is his government surreptitiously training snipers and armed personnel? What are the facts regarding the allegation of missing $7billion from NNPC by CBN? Has Jonathan offered “assistance” for any murderer generally or Major Hamza El-Mustapha in particular to evade justice? If so, why? Why are the Olokola and Brass LNG projects stalled? Is Jonathan frustrating the Port Harcourt water project funding by the ADB? What is Jonathan’s relationship with Buruji Kashamu? While we await Jonathan’s response, it remains to warn Nigerians not to allow any oligarchic clique to steal our democracy. Similar statements by Obasanjo in the past had terminal implications for former regimes, including the 1979-1983 second republic and Obasanjo in this statement explicitly threatens “Egypt must teach some lesson”. But Nigerians are rational and in spite of our pains, we know that Nigeria’s current troubles are largely the legacy of past misrule!!! Our democracy is far from perfect, but we should NOT go back to Egypt!