Egypt or Nigeria

Last week in “Egypt’s Continuing Revolution”, I laid out my interpretation of contemporary events in that country which can be summarized thus-the people of Egypt took their destiny into their hands and demanded freedom and democracy in January 2011. The principal obstacle to their objective was the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak, and Egyptians rose against him in their millions. The Egyptian military sided with the masses and Mubarak was duly toppled. And then a new obstacle appeared-Muhammed Morsi who they had marginally elected as President, and his Muslim Brotherhood! Morsi, you will recall scored 5.5million against 5.2miillion votes for Ahmed Shafiq in the first round of presidential elections and obtained 13.2 million (51.23%) in the second round to his opponents 48.27%. Evidently Morsi and the Brotherhood had a different strategic intent-to replace the people’s aspiration for freedom and democracy with their own vision of an Islamic Caliphate! The Egyptian masses erupted again, in more millions and the military for the second time answered their call and removed Morsi. My conclusion, then and now, was that there was no military coup in Egypt, only a continuing people’s revolution in pursuit of self-determination, and an army that has opted to play a historical role, albeit consistent with its enlightened self-interest, on the side of the people. 22 million Egyptians, almost double those who voted for Morsi in the presidential election, signed the “Tamarud” petition for his removal and millions more massed in demonstrations demanding his exit. For obvious reasons, events in Egypt have resonated in Nigeria! There has been some nervousness about how to understand those developments and what implications they have for Nigeria, if any? Some of President Jonathan’s foes for instance, who will be happy to remove him by whatever means possible, hint not too subtly that if a “coup” or revolution can happen in Egypt, perhaps it may (or should!) happen here too! On the other hand, the discomfort in pro-Jonathan circles is very evident-given the level of popular discontent in Nigeria, if a military intervention of any sort is condoned in Egypt, wouldn’t that send a dangerous signal to our own military? I believe the circumstances in Nigeria and Egypt are vastly different and I would caution analysts and politicians against drawing the wrong lessons from the North African nation. I will attempt to distinguish, as lawyers do, between the two situations. As I pointed out in last week’s article, Egypt has existed as one country since 3200 BC with the unification of the Upper and Lower Nile. It is a predominantly Arab/Muslim nation with ninety percent of the populace adherents to Islam. The debate in Egypt is not over Islam, but what role it would play in politics, the constitution and the state. Nigeria on the other hand is a relatively recent “geographical expression” created by British colonialists, which in spite of 100 years of amalgamation and 50 years of political independence has refused to merge into one nation. We are a complex mix of peoples, ethnic nationalities and religions. This diversity severely complicates our political options and imposes sub-optimality on the nation. Secondly Egypt is just struggling to define its path as a civilian democratic nation. Nigeria on the other hand is making its third attempt at democracy, and this third try is already fourteen years old, with a third civilian president in the saddle. We have certainly not become a stable democracy and commentators who say we have achieved “civilian” rather than “democratic” rule are not completely incorrect, but unlike Egypt where the nation endured decades of personal dictatorships under Mubarak, and Sadat, Nasser, Naguib before him, personal dictatorships have not thrived here. Gowon, Babangida and Abacha all failed to entrench themselves as permanent sovereigns, and Obasanjo’s third-term dream was similarly frustrated. Thirdly the nature and character of the military in both countries is vastly different. Egypt’s military somehow insulated its corporate reputation from the disrepute which Mubarak’s regime acquired and its rank and file did not become tarnished with politics as happened in our country. At a critical moment, the Egyptian military in 2011 defined itself as protectors of the people and guarantors of their revolution. The Nigerian military on the other hand left office with their “espirit de corps” severely strained and their institutional reputation in tatters! The 1966 coup, civil war and the discredited regimes of Babangida and Abacha almost destroyed the armed forces and the ethnic and religious nature of our politics implies that military interventions in politics are or are assumed to be based on ethno-religious, rather than patriotic considerations. Finally the anti-Jonathan proponents of a “coup” or “revolution” unlike the youths and women of Egypt who massed at Tahrir Square to demand Morsi’s ouster can hardly be described as revolutionaries! Indeed many of those who may be secretly hoping for a military solution to the “Goodluck Jonathan problem” are some of the most conservative (some may in fact say retrogressive) and hegemonic elements in Nigeria. Will anyone believe that Ango Abdullahi, Junaid Mohammed, Aminu Tambuwal or Nasir El-Rufai desire a genuine people’s revolution across Nigeria? There is a final reason we should discountenance talk of a coup in Nigeria-I strongly suspect that rather than help disaffected power blocs retrieve “their” power from an unwanted president, a coup in the current context in Nigeria may precipitate the final unraveling of the concept of a united Nigerian nation.