Amnesty and Emergency

At the height of the public display of folly disguised as rationality over a so-called amnesty for “Boko Haram”, I wrote in “The politics of Boko Haram” that “amnesty will be meaningless to the core religious Boko Haram and the spinoff Ansarul, for in their minds, they do the work of God and have reinforcing links to AQIM and Al Shabab”. I had thought that it was fairly obvious that, given the religious and political aspects of the motivation of the fundamentalist terrorists, and the weakness that the Nigerian state had projected in response thus far, an offer of amnesty to the religious militants was likely to be regarded as a sign of imminent victory! But to my shock, I watched as the cream of the Nigerian elite – eminent traditional rulers, state governors, leading politicians, respected newspaper columnists, reverend fathers and political bishops and sundry members of the Nigerian establishment sub-structure – celebrated this magical proposed amnesty, the great harbinger of peace and reconciliation that was going to end a terrorist onslaught that had consumed 4,200 innocent Nigerian citizens, many of whom were actually security agents employed by the state to defend public order and safety and innocent Christians just practicing their faith! This Nigerian elite was ready to trade off its own police and military officers who had been killed by Boko Haram in search of an elusive and expedient peace, these victims being dispensable in the eyes of a dysfunctional state and an equally dysfunctional elite. It did not matter that the sponsors and advocates of this silly idea had not even made any contact with the terrorists they sought to bestow forgiveness on! It didn’t matter that Boko Haram had expressed neither remorse nor repentance over the murders they had committed! It didn’t matter that the group at every turn in fact justified those killings as a divine obligation and great accomplishments! Even when the character named Imam Shekau, their purported leader, spurned the offer of amnesty and declared that it was indeed the Nigerian leadership that merited forgiveness, otherwise intelligent Nigerian commentators urged government to proceed all the same! The ways of some Nigerian elite are mysterious indeed! Fortunately for us, the folly of the amnesty rigmarole did not take too long to manifest! Economists and social scientists know that incentives play a large part in explaining human behaviour – a country that handsomely rewards those who take up arms against it and those who murder innocent citizens will have to deal with many more such behaviour by the murderers, and others who realise that the route to recognition and power in that society is through “militancy” and “terrorism”. Soon Boko Haram was killing people in 50s in Baga and Bama, and they were soon joined by the “Ombatse” of Nasarawa who killed over 40 policemen and state security officials in one fell swoop. If President Jonathan did not retreat fast from the amnesty illogic, Nigeria would have been consumed by a mass multiplication of terror and militancy – North, East, South and West in very short course! Thank God commonsense eventually prevailed. I am in complete support of the state of emergency declared by the government in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States. Indeed, given how far the government had allowed the insurgency to fester, and the audacity that the insurgents had since developed, there was no other option than Nigeria ceding the North-East to Boko Haram…and then the North-West…and North-Central…and then southwards! I believe that the Jonathan administration allowed itself to be strung along this far, by elements who were either scared of or sympathetic to Boko Haram, as well as those who had a political objective in intimidating or discrediting the regime, into taking only half-hearted measures against the terrorists. That vacillation and/or naivety has cost us over 3,500 additional lives (we should have taken this step when the death toll crossed 500!), but maybe it is better late than never! I also believe, contrary to many commentators, that government did the right thing in leaving the democratic structures in place in the emergency states, as dictated by our constitution. I believe that the removal of elected governors in Plateau and Ekiti States under ex-President Obasanjo-imposed emergency rule was unconstitutional. Beyond constitutional adherence, I do not in fact see any operational benefit in saddling military officers faced with a serious mission against well-motivated religious fanatics and secessionists with civilian responsibilities such as managing education, health services, local government administration, chieftaincy, road construction and other non-security related functions of states and local governments. There is no doubt that concerning military and security functions, however, the state governments have lost all powers to the military and security agencies, and that is all that is required to prosecute the now-official war against terrorism and secession in Northern Nigeria! I hope that having found the will to finally confront terror, this will be a defining moment in Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency and he will find similar will power in addressing all the other ills that ail Nigeria, particularly corruption, poverty and unemployment, reform and diversification of the Nigerian economy, and good governance. In a sense, on the day he declared the state of emergency, the de facto transition from Yar’Adua to Jonathan finally ended, even though his occupancy of de jure power had long since been established!