Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Nigeria

I am quite pleased to be able to make these few remarks in honour of Dr Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (NOI), Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Minister of Finance (CME/MoF) of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and former Managing Director at the World Bank. I am her bona fide admirer reaching back to her time as Minister for Finance between 2003 and 2006 under the Obasanjo Presidency. Her successes in that era, (along with her colleagues in the economic team and the political will and backing offered by the then Presidency) can never be forgotten-budgetary and fiscal reforms enshrining the oil price based fiscal rule; publication of federal budget allocations; pension reforms; the enactment of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act in 2005; mining reforms enshrined in the Mines and Minerals Act 2007; the Fiscal Responsibility and Public Procurement Acts of 2007; Her role in the establishment of the Debt Management Office even before she came into government; and of course the culmination of all these reforms into the Paris Club debt write-off, were a turning point in Nigeria’s fiscal and macroeconomic management. She also represented a different value system-a confident and competent African, simple and natural individual, committed to excellence based on global standards, and creative and courageous policy maker! I hoped then, that as part of institutionalizing reforms, the ruling elite of the period, would consider inserting NOI in the succeeding administration as Vice-President or at worst, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF). Not only was that not going to happen, but she found herself out of government even before its terminal date! In this second coming however, things are different, and probably less auspicious! The first major difference of course is that her title is longer! CME and MoF! The structure of the National Economic Management Team is also different:- it has the President and Vice-President as Chair and Vice-Chair with NOI as Coordinator, which for various reasons I consider less optimal; It is a larger and in my view less compact and focused team; It contains several business men and may be open to charges of fostering an image, if not the reality of crony capitalism; It is not obvious to the external observer that there is a tight, committed core of real reformers, beyond one or two individuals; We doubt that sufficient political will and sagacity exists at the top, across the Cabinet and Government, within the ruling party etc. in favour of reforms. When NOI was seriously considered last year for the World Bank Presidency, I noted the almost total unanimity behind her candidacy, but I wasn’t deceived-many in government and outside saw her potential exit as an opportunity to put an end to reforms in Nigeria. I must say that while I felt pride in the credibility of her run for that position, I was one of the few who felt Nigeria needed her more than the World Bank! There are more substantial reasons why I say the times are less auspicious-social indicators are worse than in 2006-poverty over 60%; unemployment almost 24%; youth unemployment almost 40%; and insecurity and crime at alarming levels!!! We have a full-fledged insurgency and a major political crisis even though we conspire to act as if things are not as bad as they really are; fundamentalist terrorists have killed over 3,000 people since 2009; 2015 increasingly already appears like a zero sum game and this is just 2013; and the public believes in the perception or reality of escalating corruption, what I now describe as CONGENITAL CORRUPTION-the type that kills the patient!!! Finally is the unfortunate fact that NOI’s credibility on the Nigerian street has been unfairly eroded by last January’s fuel subsidy crisis and unrelenting social media propaganda. One of the supreme ironies of the times is that much of her adverse publicity may be generated from sources with which she was allied in earlier times! Macroeconomic indices still look good (GDP growth over 6%, FX reserves over $40billion; exchange rates stable around $155-160, with the key issues being inflation which is still over 12%, and interest rates, but my personal view is that given the defective structure of our GDP with sub-modern, low-value agriculture, crude oil and gas, wholesale and retail trade and telecommunications accounting for 80%, Nigeria must shift its focus from GDP to Human Development. Our critical objectives ought to be dealing with unemployment and poverty. I acknowledge small steps like the “You-Win” Programme, but the impact of others, including SURE-P have been less visible! We must focus on education-good quality education, healthcare, public mass transportation and transport infrastructure. Economic reforms and diversification to optimize sectors such as power, transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, mining, construction and hotels, restaurants and tourism will help create jobs and reduce poverty. And if we do not deal with crime and insecurity, whatever we do will be sub-optimal. Of course we must deal with corruption!!! I must acknowledge areas of progress-the imminence (hopefully!) of power privatization, agricultural sector reforms and works-in-progress regarding critical infrastructure while noting that as the nation embarks on the road to 2015, appetite for downstream petroleum sector deregulation may have been completely lost in government!!! On a different note, I recall hearing loud grumbles from sources close to the Lagos State Government about the management of external debt portfolios (and Ben Akabueze, who should be here, will probably concur!). I am sure that as Federal Minister for Finance, our honouree acts in the interest of all our states and peoples whether she’s arranging external debts or filling high positions of state and she will continue to support this state! And this feedback-I have a friend, a CEO who knowing my admiration for NOI regularly asks me whenever some controversial policy or news emerges from this administration, whether regarding aviation, pensions, petroleum or other sectors, “Opeyemi, are you sure NOI is coordinating all these things?” As I close, I note that when the global community focuses on Nigeria, they usually mention two outstanding individuals, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Lagos Governor, Babatunde Fashola (SAN). NOI epitomizes the best of Nigeria-knowledge, industry, creativity, confidence and resourcefulness, just as in a metropolitan sense, Lagos does! I congratulate Ndigbo for producing this pride of Nigeria and Africa and pray that she and Nigeria will fulfill their global destinies, an eventuality that may be inextricably linked. *This speech was prepared for the “Ndigbo Lagos” Reception for Okonjo-Iweala on January 11, 2013.