Naivety and Statecraft

I have previously written about President Goodluck Jonathan’s simplicity and naïveté. In Nigeria’s dysfunctional politics and system, being relatively inexperienced and simple-minded can be an advantage in a political career especially in two particular contexts-when you wish to be deputy, Deputy Governor or Vice President, and when you have a powerful Godfather! There is no doubt that Governors pick their deputies for their lack of political clout, naiveté and submissiveness…and after Obasanjo’s experience with Atiku Abubakar, Presidents have also followed suit! Yar’adua’s minders fought very hard to prevent Peter Odili or Donald Duke from becoming Vice President, preferring Jonathan who they must have seen as weaker and likely to be more pliable! These characteristics may be tolerable in deputies, but when a CEO, either in politics or business retains those attributes, the consequences may be tragic, even fatal!!! Godfathers of course also prefer obedient godsons! Most Nigerians when they voted overwhelmingly for him in 2011 were aware of that Goodluck Jonathan weakness, but they hoped that once he won a substantive presidential election on his own merit, he would rise to the occasion and express the powers of his office. So far he hasn’t. Instead of growing in the office of President, President Jonathan apparently seeks to elevate naiveté into strategy, with him and his inner circle consoling themselves that he knows what he is doing and is actually executing some grand strategic maneuver! Meanwhile as he panders to adversarial constituencies, alienates himself from otherwise friendly ones, puts his political and economic legacies into perpetual jeopardy, and endangers the lives of himself and his associates, they delude themselves that they are “on top of the situation”! I read a report in the wake of the tragic helicopter crash that killed former NSA Azazi and Kaduna State Governor Yakowa that Azazi was assuring one Ross Alabo-George that Jonathan was smarter than people credited him for, as he walked to his death!!! Contrary to that illusion, four instances convince me that the president often does not act in his own self-interest! That cannot be strategy!!! Take the recent attempted cancellation of the Manitoba transmission concession. Since the exit of Professor Barth Nnaji from the power ministry, it has become very clear that it is possible, even easy for Jonathan’s enemies who seek to destroy his possible sole legacy, to run rings around him!!! Even regarding Nnaji’s resignation, administration insiders convinced themselves it was a strategy to preserve the gains of the PHCN privatization. Subsequently the President was almost swindled and deceived into unraveling the whole exercise by cancelling concession of the transmission system to Canada’s Manitoba Hydro until powerful insiders intervened to save him from himself! As it pushed by some demonic powers (in human flesh), the President then fired the DG of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) while the privatisations were yet to be concluded! Then take Boko Haram! Today I doubt that the Jonathan government can ever solve this problem, even if you gave them ten years so to do! It has allowed the terrorist too much latitude such that the matter has gone from an episodic to an epidemic state. In the early stages, when the terrorist network could have been crushed and obliterated, it appeared that the president was convinced not to take firm actions against it, probably by the sponsors of Boko Haram, or their agents! He couldn’t even make firm statements instead mouthing inanities like “terrorism is a global phenomenon”, “it is now our turn to live with it” “Boko Haram is in my government” etc. It got to the point where the Nigerian and US governments united to argue against designating Boko Haram a Foreign Terrorist Organisation for political reasons. Today BH is emboldened and terror in Nigeria has been de-regulated! Few doubt given the impunity with which it operates, that BH enjoys some covert (or even overt) support within official, political, military and security circles. Today BH’s menace can only be tamed with great and decisive effort! There is no evidence that this President will offer such leadership. And then consider Jonathan’s post-election regional strategy! A President who was elected with overwhelming support from four geo-political zones (South-South; South-East; South-West; and Middle-Belt) with additional support in the North-West and North-East) has shrunk his support base, seemingly deliberately into South-South and South-East! He now completely lacks support in the Northern zones and even the Middle-Belt and Northern Christians who have paid a very high price for voting for him are weary! As they endure the consequences of voting Jonathan, he rewards those who did everything possible to prevent him for becoming president! Again, this cannot be strategy of any sensible sort, but extreme naivety!!! His emerging attitude to the South-West is inexplicable and will certainly exact a significant pay-back, except something changes very soon. How for instance can a President intending to win an election in 2015 decide to alienate both Asiwaju Tinubu and ex-President Obasanjo, both of whom supported his election in 2011? The fourth illustration I was going to use-the dismissal of General Andrew Owoye Azazi as National Security Adviser now speaks for itself!!! When I put my notes for this article down in Providence, Rhode Island, USA on November 10, the poor gentlemen was alive!