Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The US Elections

Four years ago, this columnist was probably one of the most enthusiastic pro-Obama platforms you could find. From the day I read The Audacity of Hope, and as the implications of a historic Barack Obama presidency dawned, my support for Obama became unqualified and resolute! Ironically, I had started off supporting Hillary Clinton rather than Obama when the Democratic primaries started, until I read Obama’s books and switched my support based not just on racial affinity, but for the inspiring and bold ideas enunciated in those books. By and large, I’ve been disappointed by Obama (and Clinton!). I do not know what he stands for! Obama has attempted to run a presidency that takes no risks. I recall that even during the period leading to the passage of his signature legislation – the healthcare reform – Obama passed the “transaction risks” to the House Democratic Caucus as he tried to minimise any negative impact on him if the legislation failed. It was the same attitude (or is it a strategy?) during the mid-term elections as he tried to distance himself and his presidency from the fortunes of his party’s congressional candidates, resulting in the famous “shellacking” which his party received resulting in the loss of the House of Representatives to the Republicans. It is in the area of foreign policy that Obama’s strategy has caused the most harm, in my view, resulting in a more chaotic global political and security environment. America has been right or wrong many times in history, but never has the world been unclear about what the US stood for! Under Obama, one cannot quite say the same. Obama has taken the strategy of passing the risks of global policymaking to others whenever the outcome was not predictable, resulting in a situation in which American leadership has been missing at critical moments. There are many illustrations of this, especially as the so-called Arab Spring developed. The US has not sufficiently stood by its values in Egypt (until after the recent Libyan debacle exposed the folly of that strategy) seemingly willing to tolerate marginalisation of women and religious minorities. Across the Middle East and North Africa, the US ignored the obvious presence of Al Qaeda and other terrorist-inclined forces seeking to gain ascendancy in the newly “liberated” countries again until the explosion in Libya consumed an American ambassador and three US embassy officials. Iran is four years closer to a nuclear bomb as Obama appeared to send mixed signals to Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs about America’s resoluteness to prevent an Iranian bomb. When the citizens of Iran protested on the streets after a fraudulent election, Obama hedged his bets, and the Iranian regime crushed its protesters! Pakistan continues to play tricks with the US, collecting billions of dollars in US aid and yet acting like the US were an enemy! The Egyptians do the same, and the newly elected Muslim Brotherhood president, Mohammed Morsi, has visited China, Iran and Saudi Arabia, while Egyptians have heckled and booed Hillary Clinton when she visited Cairo! Even in Nigeria, the US seemed to hedge its bets on Boko Haram! I also am quite uncomfortable with Obama’s social policies. I often wonder whether Obama, Clinton and other US liberals believe it is possible to build a successful society solely on the basis of homosexuality, abortion, welfare and taxing the rich! Surely, society must be built on more substantive values! What are those substantive values which these liberals believe America must be built upon? It is impossible to tell. Now the US Democrats have indeed taken the unprecedented step of taking out any reference to God from their party’s platform, a final confirmation perhaps that their vision of society, despite occasional pretensions, is one in which faith plays no part! Already, it is possible to detect that the next liberal agenda in the US (once gay marriage is out of the way!) is likely to be legalising marijuana! On their part, the Republicans have not fared much better! They have often acted as though they preferred that Obama fail, rather than do anything to assist in prompting recovery of the US economy, at some point looking like a nasty party that just said “No!” Often, their positions were just plain unreasonable and there are elements within the party who really seemed like racists who would go to any lengths to make sure a black man failed as president. However, the Republicans are different from Obama in one important respect – we always know where they stand! And I suspect that some of their values are a more sustainable basis of organising society – enterprise, a strong economy, an America that leads in the world, an opportunity society and strong relationships with allies. As the Americans go to vote next Tuesday, the choice before them is quite clear. Obama seems to want to move the US towards a more European welfare society with higher taxes, lower faith and more social safety nets. The Republicans are strongly resisting that journey and want to promote enterprise, individual responsibility, lower taxes and a traditional view of US society. Four years ago, I strongly endorsed Barack Obama. This time, I abstain!

3 comments:

Folabi said...

Although the US elections are done with, I read this piece and felt I had to comment because there are broader issues tackled that touch on more than electoral battles. It is so laden with inaccuracies and the author has such a sense of false confidence in his qualifications to come up with such shallow opinions that it warrants a response. My basic takeaway after reading this was that the author has no idea—none whatsoever—of what he’s talking about. I will give him the brief point made in a moment of sane reflection about the GOP acting as though they preferred an Obama failure over rolling up their sleeves to help the US economy recover; everything else is utter rubbish.

“Obama has attempted to run a presidency that takes no risks.”
The author spoke about not knowing what Obama stands for and that Obama has attempted to run a presidency that takes no risks. I don’t know if he lives in a cave or if he gets all his information from cable TV, social media and friends and family abroad who are only slightly less informed than he is but how can anyone make such a statement? Putting the healthcare debate on the table was the greatest political risk this president could have taken at such an early point of his presidency. Even his very politically savvy Chief of Staff (Rahm Emanuel) told him that the healthcare battle was too risky and should be shelved. On passing the “transaction risks” of getting the bill passed to the House democratic caucus, anyone who followed the Hillarycare debacle of the Clinton days would see that it was impossible for Obama to get reluctant democrats like Rahm Emanuel to sign on for anything that did not sufficiently address the lessons learned from that effort. When you tag on the fact that the effort in the House had to be led by Nancy Pelosi and she had to be given the room to get her people in order you start to see that this “no risks” comment ignores the facts on the ground. I guess the author would have preferred that Obama charge headlong into Congress and tell them that Michelle would be in charge of the new healthcare law and all direction would come from the office of the first lady. And lastly, under this topic, the 2010 congressional shellacking had absolutely nothing to do with Obama distancing himself from the congressional candidates. That’s so inaccurate it’s annoying. It had everything to do with the fact that citizens who did not agree with the new health care law (either because they didn’t actually agree with it, didn’t agree with the closed door process under which it was hacked out or didn’t agree with the version of the story that they got from the politically savvy Republican party) punished those candidates. So, candidates lost seats not because the president distanced himself but precisely because the candidates were hitched to the president’s policies and punished because of it. That is huge political risk in case no one ever told you.....(continued below)

Folabi said...

....(comments continued from above)

“It is in the area of foreign policy that Obama’s strategy has caused the most harm…”
My takeaway here is that the author does not see the job of a President as that of balancing priorities but as one where every single task is a priority. You have a country tethering on the brink of the biggest economic downturn of our lifetime, engaged in 2 very expensive wars, bleeding jobs at home and understandably reluctant to bite off anything additional that is not absolutely necessary and you make these comments? You say the US ignored the obvious presence of Al Qaeda in North Africa and the Middle East. Do you think if it was so obvious to you it wasn’t obvious to US strategists? Did you stop to consider the fact that the US realizes that it cannot run all over the world trying to eradicate Al Qaeda much like we as humans cannot run into the jungles to kill every single poisonous snake? All we can do is keep those snakes away from places where they can cause us harm or mutate into things that we can’t control. The mission of the US was to deny Al Qaeda a foothold in Afghanistan. This is the country that is the largest illicit producer of opium in the world. Opium is used to produce heroin and other powerful opiates. This generates an incredible amount of money for Al Qaeda (in 2011 Afghanistan made more than $1.4bn from opium sales.) US strategic interests dictate that they cut Al Qaeda off from this funding. Who cares that much if Al Qaeda is in Mali? As long as you limit their funding you can contain them without imploding your economy to chase them all over the world.
You mentioned that Obama waffles with Iran and doesn’t show America’s resoluteness against a nuclear Iran. I assume you don’t know how incredibly tough the current sanctions are. This most crippling, most concerted effort against a single country has been shrewdly negotiated by Obama and his team. Rather than have a lone America running sanctions that Iran will simply work around via other countries, America has assembled a large effort that has reduced oil income to Iran by 50% and commercial restrictions to the international community have severely affected businesses from banks to shipping firms to commodities. The Swift financial system cut off Iran’s banks including its central bank from all banks across the world. If you want to buy oil from Iran you can’t even arrange the insurance for your tankers because no one will insure you. Even with all this the threat of military action from the US and Israel is always on the table. Iranians are complaining bitterly against their government as inflation approaches 60%. Even the Ayatollah’s are complaining internally. I sincerely wonder what you mean by Obama sending mixed signals to Iran. What do you recommend? Another ground war perhaps.
On the issue of Pakistan and Egypt, it’s again a strategic dance. Deny Pakistan their $20b of aid and you get a nation that cannot counterbalance the threat of its rich enemy next door—India. Boom—instability in one of the world’s most volatile regions jam packed with nuclear arms and terrorists. You get a nation where it becomes more profitable for its leaders to sell nuclear arms to terrorists next door in Afghanistan (or even internally in Pakistan) than to keep the arms safely under lock and key. Instead of a nation where you can at least count on 51% cooperation and 49% opposition you get one that is 100% opposed to you. I suppose you believe that’s a sensible trade off. About Egyptians booing Hillary Clinton, that is easily one of the silliest sentences in this write-up. So, the effectiveness of foreign policy is determined now by whether some ordinary citizens of foreign nations boo you or not? If Hillary comes to Nigeria and she’s booed by a group of area boys in Lagos because they’ve been paid to do so or for whatever reason, I guess we should just conclude that US foreign policy in Nigeria has failed....(continued)

Folabi said...

(...continued from above)

“I often wonder whether Obama, Clinton and other US liberals believe it is possible to build a successful society solely on the basis of homosexuality, abortion, welfare and taxing the rich!”
Again, you fail to put yourself in the shoes of a leader who models himself after Abraham Lincoln and is a constitutional law professor. On the issue of homosexuality and abortion anyone who thinks that Obama or Clinton advocates these needs to have his head examined. Homosexuals exist in society and government needs to make a call on whether they are equal citizens or not. Unwanted pregnancies also happen every day and government needs to make a call on whether women can make a choice based on their personal relationship with God and their conscience or whether they cannot. On taxes, the US top marginal tax rate was over 90% when FDR was President. When Reagan got into office it was about 70%. Reagan slashed to top rate to about 28%, Bush 41 brought it back up to 31% to fund the gulf war and Clinton drove it further up to about 39%. Bush 43 drove the top rate back down to 35% and Obama is advocating a return to the 39% under the Clinton years. In addition, there will be no increase in taxes for ordinary people making less than $250k per year or $500k as a family. When people like you talk about taxes one would think that Obama was trying to drive the top rate up to 50% or more! Again, you do not really know what you are talking about.
You seem to be a sophisticated man but you reason like a simpleton. That’s not surprising. I took a look at your bio and the most compelling experience you have is as an academic. Even this academic work leaves a lot to be desired because you never picked up the academic’s tool of choice—a Ph.D—nor were you ever trained under any global leader in any field. Your entire education has been in Nigeria (let’s be clear, an IESE branded degree earned at one of the global campuses in Nigeria, Kenya or Ivory Coast hardly counts as global exposure.) Your only real world work experience has been in Nigeria. You have never worked or lived outside Nigeria. You have never held a leadership role (or even a junior one for that matter) at a single multinational or any institution that is globally relevant. You are hardly qualified to talk about foreign policy like some expert! Neither are you qualified to address deeply intertwined issues in US politics. There are nuances to be gained from discussions that take place at bars, country clubs, and corporate water coolers with learned people who live in the US and deal with various real life situations every day that dictate their political positions. It is impossible to derive such a context with your type of exposure---I don’t care if you fly to the US every weekend to have dinner at the Waldorf. Please leave such issues alone and concentrate on the homegrown issues that you seem to be good at. (END)