Downside Scenarios

Nigeria seems to be marching determinedly towards downside political scenarios, and political risk is clearly elevated! The last one week has seen some lurching towards the brink. The attack on THISDAY’s Abuja and Kaduna offices on Thursday, April 26 symbolised a two-pronged attack – one, an attempt to intimidate the media into backing off reportage of the activities of Boko Haram; and two, it is legitimate to wonder if the timing of the attacks on the day the BRACED Commission of the “South-South” states was commencing its economic summit in Asaba (which was coordinated by THISDAY chairman, Nduka Obaigbena) was a mere co-incidence. The logic of Boko Haram’s attack on the media is clear and not unexpected – the media, if successfully cowed into taking a neutral, or perhaps positive view of their activities, will affect public and international perception of the group’s activities. The irony is that THISDAY, which it selected as its symbol, is one of those whom, of all Lagos-based newspapers, I have viewed as most willing to reflect the Northern/Islamic viewpoint as reflected in its choice of columnists and editorial board members, editorial policy and focus, as well as an elaborate Abuja office – another irony as that office became the bombers’ target. That is perhaps further evidence that appeasement (as Wole Soyinka stressed in his keynote address at the BRACED Summit) does not usually succeed. The more troubling possibility, however, is the second – the attacks were connected with the South-South Summit, a development that would represent a dangerous escalation in regional animosity and a signal of elevated potential for organised conflict. As if these were not enough, terrorists struck again last Sunday at the Bayero University Kano (BUK), attacking two Christian services –Catholic and Protestant worship sessions – and killing possibly dozens including two professors, and many other senior academics and non-academic staff. The final sign of impending trouble is the confirmation that questions around the source and rationale for Boko Haram and how to react to same may be causing tensions at the highest levels of government. Owoye Azazi, the National Security Adviser (NSA), provided the strongest evidence of this with his statement at the BRACED Commission Summit, blaming the intensification of terrorism on the PDP’s zoning controversy. Azazi’s outburst may be evidence of exasperation by the NSA that his views about how to deal with BH has so far not been acted upon by his boss, President Jonathan. It may also signify the imminence of a change in policy, possibly a harder line towards terrorism. Alternatively, it could suggest Azazi’s imminent exit from government as the presidency chooses an alternative route, perhaps the “poverty and appeasement option” propounded by some local and international lobbies. Meanwhile, my opinion sampling (from my more than 5,000 friends) on facebook suggests two clear trends – an almost total loss of confidence in the ability of President Goodluck Jonathan to resolve the Boko Haram crisis and other challenges of state AND a fraying belief in the sanctity of the Nigerian state. Most respondents of Southern origin attribute Boko Haram to Northern politicians and speak with increasing despondency about Nigeria, not surprisingly given continued casualty figures from terrorism in the North; while virtually all Northern commentators place all the blame on Jonathan and his “clueless and incompetent” government. Regional formations are solidifying and the rhetoric, especially from people like Junaid Mohammed, is sometimes delusional. I doubt whether Nigerian unity has been so intensely questioned since the civil war and the June 12 1993 annulment crises! At the moment, the government has returned to its silence and abdication of the space for public communication and citizen engagement, precisely at a time when government’s credibility has been severely eroded by scandalous revelations from the fuel subsidy probe by the House of Representatives, the pension probes by the Senate, and unending newspaper accounts that suggest that corruption has become an epidemic of gargantuan proportions, especially since the Yar’Adua/Jonathan years. Public anger in Nigeria over corruption is rising and may be reaching some tipping point. I am now convinced that Nigeria is unlikely to come out of this crisis without some structural change – a stronger federal structure involving some degree of regionalisation or even a con-federal arrangement, or tensions will persist. A reversal of the political order, which I am convinced some seek, and not necessarily by entirely constitutional means, will merely reverse the conflict, substituting previous complainants for the erstwhile respondents, while newly aggrieved ones start a new cycle of violence and agitation. I am convinced that the Niger Delta will never accept to return to the old Nigeria in which they basically watched as resources from the region were distributed and shared by other Nigerians; Western Nigeria will never be satisfied until a true federal structure is restored; the Igbos’ sense of marginalisation will only increase as they ponder why none of them is found fit to govern Nigeria; the Christian Middle Belt will never agree to return to subservience in aid of an illusionary “One North”; and core Northern quest for Sharia will increase rather than decrease. I suspect that even “Boko Haram” contains some seeds of a Kanuri Liberation Movement. The point is the current crises are symptoms of a fundamental reality – Nigeria must change to survive!