President Goodluck Jonathan has secured the mandate for transformation that he sought from Nigerians. His party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) retains a majority in both houses of the National Assembly, even though smaller than the outrageous landslides of 2003 and 2007; the PDP also controls most state governorships, even though it suffered a whitewash in the South-West. The president secured 25% or more of the votes across all geo-political zones even though he did not win outright majorities in core Hausa-Fulani states. And the margin of his victory-over 22 million votes to the runner-up’s 12 million is overwhelming.
This columnist has privately expected a Jonathan presidency since the Supreme Court affirmed late Umaru Yar’adua’s election in December 2008. Given that Yar’adua’s state of ill-health was public knowledge, I had somewhat expected Northern strategists to recognise that the only route to preserving the region’s hold on the presidency was a Supreme Court ruling annulling Yar’adua’s victory and allowing a fresh election. In the event that didn’t happen and in my analysis, that judgment merely removed the last obstacle to then Vice-President Jonathan ascending to the presidency! All efforts by the Yar’adua clique led by his wife and other contending power groups to prevent Jonathan’s inevitable succession failed in the face of national and global determination to ensure adherence to the Nigerian constitution.
Political analysts and even Jonathan’s opponents have often underrated him, but it is clear he deserves some credit for the string of strategic victories he has recorded. Jonathan carefully and tactically navigated the numerous minefields placed on his path during the Yar’adua power vacuum. At a point his party chairman, the powerful governors, Northern leaders, and just about every strategic power constituency imagined he was of no consequence and could be easily brushed aside! Yet within a few months, by the time the PDP held its national convention in January 2010, the party machinery, virtually all the governors and most of the party barons were lined up behind him. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar suffered a humiliating defeat at Jonathan’s hands, in spite of the “NPLF Consensus Candidacy” bestowed on Atiku.
It was predictable that Jonathan would triumph in the presidential election given the coalition he had assembled going into the contest-he had managed to assure himself of almost 100 percent support from the South-South; South-East and North-Central. This unlikely core was unprecedented!-the South-South and South-East voluntarily re-enacting the old Eastern region and joined by the Northern Middle-Belt. It is also a credit to Jonathan that he could attract the South-West into this core, winning an overwhelming majority of South-West votes; and he had enough appeal in the North-West and North-East to win few states and score significant votes elsewhere in the region to secure the constitutionally-required 25% votes. Jonathan has thus welded a new majority across the country and even though regional patterns were apparent in the voting, he has enough pan-Nigerian goodwill to unite the country.
The opposition, particularly Buhari missed many opportunities to at least make Jonathan’s victory more difficult. He failed to take the opportunity of an alliance with the ACN; he strangely preferred Tunde Bakare, a divisive priest with a single parish as running-mate instead of Bola Tinubu or even Jimi Agbaje; and seemed to desire a victory based only on Northern votes that would give him untrammelled power and authority over the nation. The politics of candidate selection in Kano, Bauchi, Katsina and Taraba were so badly mismanaged that Buhari and the CPC basically sabotaged its own chances in the election. For a party that could easily have won six governorships, including strategically important states like Kano, Kaduna, Niger and Bauchi, if it had defined its priorities and objectives correctly, Buhari went for the presidency or nothing, and got nothing! Interestingly while the CPC grumbles about unproven allegations of inflated vote tallies in the South-South and South-East (which may be possible), the only established widespread irregularities in the presidential polls so far are underage voting and voter intimidation which happened in CPC-controlled areas! I also totally discount any notion that the post-election violence in the North was spontaneous. The pattern of incitement to violence by Buhari, Bakare and other CPC and NPLF leaders was undeniable; the riotous behaviour that accompanied CPC campaigns; and the baseless election-day complaints of Buhari himself were signs of what was to come. Of course like Wole Soyinka noted, Buhari and Bakare’s body language AFTER the violence suggested a smug satisfaction, which has since been reinforced by attempts to explain away the violence based on precedents of 30-50 years ago!
The big individual winners are of course Jonathan, and Bola Tinubu who secured the entire South-West for the ACN. Other emerging power players include Babatunde Raji Fashola; Ibikunle Amosun; Abiola Ajimobi; Sullivan Chime; Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi; Tanko Al-Makura; Bukola Saraki; Rochas Okorocha; Babangida Aliyu; Sule Lamido; Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso; Murtala Nyako; Patrick Yakowa; Ibrahim Shema; Segun Mimiko etc. The key casualties are Buhari; Bakare; Nuhu Ribadu; Ikedi Ohakim; Gbenga Daniel; Adebayo Alao-Akala and Aliyu Akwe Doma. A generation-Obasanjo; Buhari; Babangida; Danjuma; Aliyu Gusau and perhaps also Atiku may now prepare for retirement! The institutional winners are the PDP and ACN, and to a lesser extent, APGA which gained Imo State.
Jonathan has now secured the political legitimacy that permits him to change Nigeria for good. He has no excuse for failure!!!
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