The South West Governorships

As I write, President Goodluck Jonathan is virtually certain to be declared Nigeria’s elected President, a victory that bestows political legitimacy, as for the first time in his fortuitous career, Jonathan wins office on his own merit and secures the mandate for transformation he sought from the Nigerian people. The win is historically significant as Jonathan welds a new political majority out of Southern minorities, Northern middle-belt, South-East and South-West, and sufficient Hausa-Fulani support to earn the constitutionally-required 25% in several North-West and North-East states. Jonathan is the first Niger-Deltan, and second Southerner after Obasanjo (does MKO Abiola count?) elected Nigerian leader. Jonathan ends the era of dominance of politics by generals whose Nigerian worldview was shaped by 1966 and civil war, and brings a new, FRESH template to Nigerian politics. He may however yet have to overcome the final stirrings of the old Nigeria, before we can fully enter the new!

Those of us who condemned Jega after the huge flop of April 2, 2011 may now have to deliver a public apology, and I do so now! INEC rectified the problems in my polling unit 017 in Lekki and my neighbours and I finally voted in the landmark election. However the governorship elections remain, on Tuesday April 26, 2011 and this week, charity begins from home, as I focus on the governorship battles in the Lagos, Ogun and Oyo where gubernatorial and state assembly elections will take place and Ondo, Ekiti and Osun, which will conduct only state assembly polls. The elections will be fought between Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) now evidently the dominant regional party; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) since reduced to minority status in the region; Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), out-going Governor Gbenga Daniel’s vehicle for fighting the Ogun battle; former Oyo State Governor, Rasheed Ladoja’s Accord Party; and incumbent governor Olusegun Mimiko’s Labour Party in Ondo.

ACN has legacy franchise, electoral momentum, grassroots support, strong strategic leadership from former Lagos State Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as well as the exceptional performance of Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) as strong selling points; PDP has lost credibility due to the sleight-of-hand ex-President Obasanjo played to “conquer” the region in 2003 and the party subsequently squandered the opportunity to ingratiate themselves with the people; PPN will be desperate to retain Ogun, but is unlikely to overwhelm its two more established opponents-PDP and ACN-with a possibility of those two in fact combining against PPN, given ACN candidate Senator Ibikunle Amosun’s previous relationship with Obasanjo; Accord Party has made a strong showing in Oyo and is likely to win several house seats, and challenge strongly for the governorship; of course Labour is likely to dominate the Ondo legislative elections.

Lagos State-“Bebe nlo”

Lagos is a straight fight between incumbent Fashola of ACN and PDP’s Dr Ade Dosunmu. Fashola served as Chief of Staff to Tinubu, was subsequently elected governor, and is acclaimed by most accounts as best performing governor in the whole federation! Fashola has recorded successes in road construction, transportation and infrastructure, environment, security, social services (education, health etc) and has ambitious plans of transforming Lagos into “Africa’s model mega city” in the areas of infrastructure and transportation, housing, urban planning and development, amongst others. His opponent, Dosunmu is not a bad candidate, but the advantages of continuity, excellent first term performance of Fashola and ACN’s profile in the state will sway most voters to re-elect Fashola.

The enduring campaign jingle of 2011 (apart from “my friend Jona…”) will be “…Lagos State ko ni baje o, ko ni baje o; ipinle Eko ko ni daru o; e wo ayika yin, ewo bo se nrewa; opelope Fashola, to fun wa leto to da; se water project ni kaso, abi free health mission; emi a dibo mi fun Fashola o, ma a dibo fun Fashola o; to ri bebe o ti tan o; bebe si nlo, Fashola nsise lo; bebe si nlo…”. May the “bebe” continue!!!

Ogun State-“SIA”

The contestants ACN’s Amosun, PPN’s Gboyega Nasir Isiaka and General Adetunji Olurin of PDP are all good candidates-Amosun is a chartered accountant and former Senator from Abeokuta; Isiaka a chartered accountant and banker from Yewa, is Daniel’s preferred successor; and Olurin is a distinguished decorated general from Yewa and Obasanjo’s choice. The National Assembly results confirm ACN’s popularity and the elections are likely to be decided on a strict party line vote favouring Amosun. Amosun will benefit from the division within PDP/PPN ranks and state demographics and is the only real politician in the contest, previously elected Senator, and may in fact have won the 2007 governorship elections. Amosun is more likely to prevail.

Oyo State-“Mandate”

The Oyo battle is between Ladoja of Accord, incumbent Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala of PDP and Senator Abiola Ajimobi of the ascendant ACN. Many Yorubas regard Akala’s occupation of the Oyo governorship as a travesty and desecration of a seat once occupied by Chief Awolowo. One indigene, a friend argues passionately that adjusted for resource availability, Akala must be the worst governor in the whole federation! Ladoja, a former one-term governor, was essentially forced out of office by Obasanjo and seemed naïve about power. Ajimobi, an MBA, former Nestle and Shell manager and CEO of Conoil Plc is probably best-placed to govern Oyo State, and even though Ladoja offers a credible alternative, I hope Ajimobi wins!