PDP, Zoning and Jonathan

Opening the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting last Thursday (12/08/10), President Jonathan (GEJ) mocked non-PDP members joining their debate over “zoning” of the presidential ticket forgetting that but for non-PDP members in civil society, media, opposition groups, military and the international community, perhaps the PDP cabal who did not (and still don’t) want him as President may have succeeded in shunting him aside. He may yet need these groups again! More interesting were the decisions affirming zoning (without clarifying to whom and when); declaring Jonathan free to run for presidency (being part of the subsisting joint ticket with Yar’adua); and conceding the right of every party member “from any part of the country” to contest the presidential primary.
These decisions are consistent with 2003 when then Vice-President Atiku Abubakar (North-East), Dr Alex Akwueme (South-East), Chief Barnabas Gemade (North-Central) and Alhaji Abubakar Rimi (North-West) contested against then President Olusegun Obasanjo (South-West) and 2007 when Peter Odili and Donald Duke (South-South), Abdullahi Adamu (North-Central) Sam Egwu and Rochas Okorocha (South-East), General Aliyu Gusau (North-West) and others contested the PDP primaries before most were forced to step down for Umaru Yar’adua by Obasanjo (and Nuhu Ribadu!)! By several accounts, but for that intervention, Peter Odili may have been on course to winning. In effect since 2003, the PDP presidential ticket has been available to any party member from any geo-political zone who could win the primaries!
I consider the argument that a president in his 50s (providentially thrust into office for only thirteen months by virtue of constitutional provisions consequent on the death of the earlier occupant) should not contest his party primaries insulting and contemptuous of GEJ’s person and political stature! As I once asked on this page, would Atiku Abubakar as Vice-President have abandoned the Presidency in favour of South-West candidates in similar circumstances? The argument is more presumptuous given that Jonathan is from the Niger-Delta which supplies all the resources sustaining the federation and which has never provided a Nigerian leader! In my view GEJ’s sole obligation is to conduct free and fair elections and to govern well in the interim!
Democracy guarantees that presidential candidates must engage the whole country. Moreover the constitution requires a winning president to score at least 25 per cent of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s states apart from winning the plurality of votes. The reality of politics is that no serious contender for presidency can ignore the votes of the Hausa/Fulani, Kanuri, Northern Middle-Belt, Yoruba, Igbo, Ijaw, Edo, Urhobo, Ibibio or other ethnic groups. The constitution mandates “federal character” in government positions to reflect Nigeria’s ethnic and religious diversity and requires appointment of at least one minister from every state of the federation. Many federal statutes now require representation from the six geo-political zones on the boards of federal institutions. Zoning or not, the North has not been, and is unlikely to ever be disadvantaged in Nigeria’s politics!
Even though the second republic National Party of Nigeria (NPN) introduced zoning into our political lexicon between 1978 and 1983, we must remember that MKO Abiola won the SDP primaries and Nigeria’s presidency during the aborted 1990-1993 transition without zoning! It was the soldier-politicians who re-introduced “zoning” first by picking Ernest Shonekan as Head of the Interim Government to weaken Abeokuta, Ogun State and Yoruba resolve over the annulled “June 12” election and having failed, pushed for an Obasanjo compensatory presidency in 1999. Chief Emeka Anyaoku has reminded us all that with the way the PDP zoning debate was going, we might as well commence arrangements for the voluntary winding-up (my words) of the Nigerian federation!
There is no virtue in President Jonathan stepping away from the challenge of repairing Nigeria and opting for early retirement! Obasanjo in 1979 was a military leader who had to make way for a democratic transition. Mandela was an old man who had accomplished his life mission-ending apartheid and creating a harmonious state for South Africans of all races. In Nigeria, corruption, ethnic divisions (we have since seen Babangida and Atiku Abubakar become “Northern leaders”), power shortages, undemocratic elections, unaccountable governments, poverty and dilapidated infrastructure all remain with us. Why should a fresh hand who has an opportunity to confront these challenges abdicate in favour of persons who had opportunities in the past to remedy the situation and failed or neglected so to do?
The PDP NEC has essentially cleared the way for GEJ to obtain its ticket for the general elections in 2011. But Jonathan must now alter his approach. In politics, naivety is not a virtue and tentativeness is a vice! Both traits are perceived as signs of fear and weakness and they embolden your adversaries. If Jonathan wants to be President, he would have to be bold, seize the initiative and project himself as a formidable politician and leader. While he should negotiate with all groups and constituencies, he must not be intimidated by any. His easy-going style and consensual approach has its uses (navigating through the power struggle during Yar’adua’s illness for instance), but winning the Presidency in competitive PDP primaries and general elections may be a different matter altogether!
The PDP cannot presume that once their candidate is selected, the presidency is his. I suspect that General Buhari’s CPC and the new ACN may mount a stronger-than-expected challenge!