Back from the Brink? Part 2

Has the “system” recognised that it was walking dangerously close to the precipice? Is the pull-back from the brink a decisive change in strategy by our ruling class, or is what we have seen just a temporary tactical reprieve? Will we like drunken sailors lunge once again towards self-destruction? I do not regard the current “acting” presidency of Goodluck Jonathan as the final chapter in our crisis over presidential health and succession. First of all, any “acting” state is by definition temporary-an interim arrangement while an enduring solution is investigated and implemented. Secondly there are substantive political considerations which suggest a need to resolve the larger question of whether Yar’adua is able to continue to function in the Presidency.
Our constitution envisages a presidency that includes a President and a Vice. In this acting scenario, there is only Goodluck Jonathan. The current situation holds its own dangers as the entirety of the political, regional and religious constituencies which Yar’adua represents may begin to feel wholly schemed out of the Presidency. It is thus in the interest of these constituencies to quickly resolve the issue, if as it appears clear now, Yar’adua is unlikely to return to power. The Hausa-Fulani political leadership thus has a clear interest in persuading Yar’adua to resign from office so that a Vice-President can be appointed to complete the Presidency. If he (or in effect the first lady) refuses to furnish the required letter of resignation, I imagine it would be imperative that the Executive Council of the Federation take action in conjunction with the National Assembly to declare him permanently incapacitated or as a last resort, the National Assembly should commence impeachment proceedings.
Indeed I recall that as we awaited the judgment of the Supreme Court over the electoral petitions of Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar, my personal analysis made it very clear to me that it was in the interest of the North to have that election nullified and a new one (in which relatively healthier Northern candidates could re-contest) conducted. In the event, the Supreme Court decided otherwise. I recall proclaiming then to a friend, prophetically now it seems, that the Supreme Court judgment merely removed the last obstacle to a Goodluck Jonathan Presidency! Another reason to find a permanent constitutional solution to the current situation is the tenuous legal basis for the resolutions of the National Assembly which declared Jonathan as Acting President. I argued last week that the actions of the Turai clique (which held on to power for 78 days in defiance of the constitution) and the National Assembly response (which proclaimed Jonathan acting President on the basis of the doctrine of necessity and his BBC interview), amounted to a coup and counter-coup respectively; even though the National Assembly actions are more legitimate having been effected by elected representatives of the citizens in order to restore constitutional rule.
In the circumstances, we may expect agents of the disaffected Turai clique to resort to the courts to test the legality of Jonathan’s Acting Presidency. If, as is possible, a federal high court in any part of Nigeria obliges then with a declaration that the National Assembly resolutions were unconstitutional, we would be right back to square one! The events in Niger Republic right next door to Nigeria, remind us once again of the dangerous possibilities when a political class acts in defiance of the will of the people and overriding national interest. Unfortunately we have a political leadership today many of whom are so lacking in a strategic appreciation of the political, social, economic, military and international dynamics of Nigerian history and evolution that they endanger the state itself. Imagine our nation being recklessly manipulated by a house wife, some second-rate provincial politicians and middle-level protocol and security officers who obviously have a very shallow understanding of power and its complexities and dangers in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious state like Nigeria! Like children playing with explosives, they do not understand the risk factors and minefields; all they see is a huge commercial opportunity!!!
Remember also that the issue of Yar’adua’s health and incapacitation has merely added another layer of complication to an electoral cycle which already contained elevated political risks. How would the 2011 elections be conducted? Will the elections be free and fair? Who would be the candidate of the ruling PDP? How will the opposition parties contest the elections? Will the opposition manage to build a credible opposition platform? Can the nation accept another rigged election in 2011, after the very flawed polls of 2003 and 2007? Will the conduct of governance and policy be re-invigorated to reduce public disaffection before the general elections? How will the international community react in the event of a 2011 election that is generally believed to lack credibility? Will the Niger-Delta crisis be resolved before the elections? What of concerns about religious conflict in Northern Nigeria?
All these unresolved issues mean there may still be challenges along the path to 2011 even if the Yar’adua obstacle is removed. The “system” still has some serious thinking to do!