Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Renewing America and the World

Four years ago, just after the re-election of George W Bush, I was involved in a discussion with an American, an Indian and a Nigerian on US politics. I was surprised that America re-elected Bush in spite of what had become clear-his incompetence and lack of intellectual ability to handle that important office. But as someone who philosophically always looks for the good in any circumstances, I had reached a new, positive angle-Bush’s re-election would so damage America that it would isolate the US voters from the Republican party and lead to a long period of Democratic rule once his tenure was over. I suggested these viewpoints that day to vigorous debate by my dinner companions.

I never imagined then the degree George W Bush’s erosion of American power-economic, political, and military and its influence and respect in the world go. America under Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld (until his position as Secretary for Defence became completely untenable), Karl Rove and the “neo-cons” (with Bush as surrogate) has behaved so irresponsibly that it has lost the respect of the rest of the world. America’s European allies and admirers from developing nations (like this columnist) who held the United States up as a model for democracy and constitutionalism have been embarrassed by American torture of prisoners of war, rigged elections in Florida and a government that seeks to project power by deception, propaganda, bluster and brute force.

The Republicans accuse democrats of being “tax and spend”, “big government” advocates, but have presided over the unprecedented expansion of the US budget deficits and national debt and are now having to nationalise the financial sector. In foreign policy their only strategy is war, and even that they handle poorly leading to unnecessary loss of lives and increase in global tension. They mouth poorly thought-out and out-dated ideologies and have now brought the US economy to its knees, weakened its leadership in education, science and technology, and potentially threatening to erode its military power as well. Unfortunately the world cannot gloat over American weakness! Would you prefer a world dominated by China, Russia, Iran, India or by the likes of Osama Bin Laden?

The world is disappointed by US behaviour over the last eight years precisely because enlightened observers recognise that the values of democracy, liberty, opportunity, free enterprise, personal responsibility, patriotism and civic citizenship, global cooperation and faith which America has come to symbolise are ideals to which the rest of the world should aim. America under Bush and the neo-cons have moved away from those ideals. Instead America has looked more and more like its enemies, as it abandons moral superiority in favour of force and unilateralism. If the neo-cons who have held the Republican Party hostage must hold on to power by all means, at least they could be a little bit more competent!

Amazingly they have learnt absolutely nothing over the last eight years. Seeing that the Republican brand is so badly damaged, they do a deal with John McCain, the only Republican who could plausibly claim to be different from Bush; take over and revive his floundering campaign; select Sarah Palin for him as running-mate (who like Bush does not have the intellectual capacity to function in high office and who can be manipulated and tele-guided in office) and cynically go about persuading America to continue in the same path that has brought that great country almost to its knees. Since McCain is 72 years old, it can be presumed that at best he will be a single-term leader, and may not even make it to the end of his first term. Against that background, the selection of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate is irresponsible and demonstrates all that is wrong with Bush’s America.

Competence does not matter-propaganda will take care of that, and it makes it easy for a shadowy group to control her; she is the candidate of the evangelical right and family values, even if her 17-year old daughter is pregnant and her sister has gone through a messy divorce-it doesn’t matter that Obama is happily married, with absolutely unimpeachable family values; she and McCain will reform Washington even if McCain has been there for twenty-six years and she is under investigation in Alaska for firing the man who refused to fire her former brother-in-law; it doesn’t matter that she just got an international passport and travelled outside the US in 2007-all she has to do is arrange some photo-ops with Kissinger, use the words “bless us” every now and then (to appeal to the Christian right), avoid direct media interviews, mock Barrack Obama, and appeal to cultural conservatives. It really is a shame.

The choice before American voters on November 4 goes beyond voting for president. Americans will be voting either to renew America or signal the beginning of the end of the American era. When great empires decline, it is often characterised by a succession of weak and incompetent leaders and a leadership elite that refuses to learn from initial errors. If America votes for Obama, it will be a vote for renewal, revival and re-invigoration. It will be a message to the world that its time for a world free of prejudice and divisiveness. opeyemiagbaje.blogspot.com

Agbaje is CEO of Resources and Trust Company Ltd-a strategy, consultancy and business advisory firm. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy division while RTC Strategy and Advisory offers private sector advisory services.

4 comments:

Whole Truths said...

Hi Opeyemi. I will not make any comments regarding this article! Not yet that is!! i'm going to wait until Obama loses the election tomorrow, and then i'll post my reply!Meanwhile i'm making my final election predictions. i call the election for John McCain. Again, this prediction is beyond mere party rhetoric and about on the ground situation analysis. i hope you and other readers find it interesting!!

SOMEONE’S GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF REGRETS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING! : How John McCain will win the Elections on Tuesday.
Years in the making, just days to the taking, the 2008 election season is finally at its end. Two National primaries later, Two Billion Dollars in campaign financing, Fifteen Presidential candidates, Two National conventions, we are finally nearing the finish line of the most fascinating Presidential contest in modern history. From the angry white males, to the parka wearing pit bull from Alaska; from the Tall, dark and handsome ‘messiah’, to George W. Bush.
All the players in this seasons’ contest have been all the more nuanced. With scrutiny from everything from their Wives’ cooking habits, to the knots on their ties, never has any Presidential contender in America’s Presidential politics been this vetted. We experienced Tom Cruise’s minority reportesque magic screen with CNN’s John King; although He and the screen seemed to always get the predictions wrong! We experienced grassroots politicking from the Obama camp like never before. We saw the political masterstroke in the selection of Sarah Palin as VeeP and George W. Bush…er kind of!
America is generally a Conservative Country. It’s not some left-wing liberal European Nation tucked in some little hidden part of the World!
The Republicans have traditionally presented better candidates. This year; not so much. A change election if I have ever seen one, the economy, has trumped the usual election biggies.
All Counties, Districts and States are almost all up for grabs. Obama is already making inroads into traditionally Red States. He’s redrawing the Electoral map.
‘Both candidates are eyeing States that were traditionally seen as out of reach for their party.
There are potential map changers because of a variety of factors: Obama and McCain's personal attributes, policy positions and even the year we are in.
These factors could redefine the electoral map, to a degree’.
WHAT OBAMA AND McCAIN NEED TO DO TO WIN: “Beyond Country First and Change We Can Believe in”
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers! Nothing is more important in elections than numbers! Of course that’s what Democracy is about- Superiority in Numbers! The Electoral College Map is as important in American Elections, sometimes even more important than the results of the popular votes.
My predictions are based solely on ‘MY’ analysis of all the Polls I have come across throughout this election season (a sort of Poll of Polls), Likely voting trends, Advertising Spend, Crowd mobilizing abilities during candidate visits, and general virtuosity of each campaign! I will also like to add one factor here, and this would be each candidate’s Bush bashing proficiency.
Each candidate will of course have to start by locking in their bases. For the Democrats, this will include California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and the District of Columbia, giving a total of 153 Electoral College votes. Remember the magic number to clinch the Presidency is 270. There are also four more States that I think are leaning Democratic. Those have a total of 37 Electoral votes.
‘If you're Obama, your first move should be to lock in those states, get the right staff and try to move the poll numbers your way to make sure you don't need to be spending a lot of time and resources in places that should be yours.’
For the Republicans, there are 16 States I consider safely Republican. Again this is based on past voting patterns, recent polls and a lot of alcohol induced smart guessing! Those 16 states are Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Together, they would provide a total of 125 Electoral votes for John McCain.
Another eight states, according to John King who happens to work for CNN, are leaning Republican. Those states would net another 69 votes.
Now we have about 190 votes for the Democrats, and 194 for the Republicans
This is where it gets pretty interesting! There are about a Dozen states I consider genuine Toss up States- This means it’s fair game for any party here. Of course this will include perennial tossup/ nuisance States; Ohio and Florida.
Pennsylvania and Michigan are toss-ups for Obama. Although these States have been dependably Democratic in the past, it is pertinent to remember that these are States in which Obama had problems with White, Blue-collar, working-class voters; the Reagan Democrats. Giving Michigan to Obama puts his total at 207, and Pennsylvania to McCain puts his total at 232.
Next would be New Hampshire. McCain and Obama both won their respective primaries in these State. I call it by the lowest of margins for Obama; His total now at 211.
Virginia, a reliably Red State, although recently has been showing tendencies to vote Obama according to most polls, I call it by the narrowest of margins for McCain. This will bring his current total to 245.
Out West, Colorado which recently elected Democrats, Bill Ritter and Ken Salazar this year although a tossup, I call it for John McCain, putting his Total at 254.
Florida and Ohio with 47 electoral votes, I’ll call for McCain, putting his total at 301. Presto, Presidency McCain.
A key factor in these background States are the minority voters. Latinos apparently through years of uncontrolled fertility have now become a potent power block in American politics, and can make the difference in these battleground States. The unease among the Jews about Obama and more importantly for Obama is the effect large turnouts of Blacks in these battleground states is having in these swing states.
I therefore urge McCains Strategists, Sarah Palin and everyone who wants to keep their Freedom, their Guns, and their Money to head up these swing states and make sure they get the message that Barack Obama wants to take their Money and let’s keep praying and hoping for a miracle or a Rainmaker or Both! Obama and his people can keep the change!!

opeyemiagbaje@blogspot.com said...

just a few hours!!!

Whole Truths said...

Exactly about 4 years ago i was with my Uncle in Illinois and we were on a very long line waiting for a certain newly elected Senator to sign a copy of his now famous Book 'Dreams from my Father'. My Uncle was absolutely sure this man was destined for greatness! I only saw 'ambition'. Today, America has shown us and the Whole World that it is indeed a Nation made of many coats of many clours. And that a man can and will always be only judged by the content of his character and not the colour of his skin. It's now time for Obama to become the Greatest Prresident in American History! Black people in The US have no more reason to talk about Racism. Opeyemi congratulations! It was a phenomenal campaign from both sides. Obama ran a 'PERFECT' campaign! When can i buy you a beer?

Whole Truths said...

Hi Opeyemi. Your celebratory article is taking a long time?! We are still waiting though! i would like to crave your indulgence for the next few days. i would be placing speeches drafts of campaign tinged polemics that made me cry! This came from one of my favorite musicians Bruce Springsteen. And YES, it made me cry!
”...I’ve spent most of my creative life measuring the distance between American promise and American reality. For many Americans, who are today losing their jobs, their homes, seeing their retirement funds disappear, who have no healthcare, or who have been abandoned in our inner cities. The distance between that promise and that reality has never been greater or more painful.

I believe Senator Obama has taken the measure of that distance in his own life and in his work. I believe he understands, in his heart, the cost of that distance, in blood and suffering, in the lives of everyday Americans. I believe as president, he would work to restore that promise to so many of our fellow citizens who have justifiably lost faith in its meaning. After the disastrous administration of the past 8 years, we need someone to lead us in an American reclamation project. In my job, I travel the world, and occasionally play big stadiums, just like Senator Obama. I’ve continued to find, wherever I go, America remains a repository of people’s hopes, possibilities, and desires, and that despite the terrible erosion to our standing around the world, accomplished by our recent administration, we remain, for many, a house of dreams. One thousand George Bushes and one thousand Dick Cheneys will never be able to tear that house down.

They will, however, be leaving office, dropping the national tragedies of Katrina, Iraq, and our financial crisis in our laps. Our sacred house of dreams has been abused, looted, and left in a terrible state of disrepair. It needs care; it needs saving, it needs defending against those who would sell it down the river for power or a quick buck. It needs strong arms, hearts, and minds. It needs someone with Senator Obama’s understanding, temperateness, deliberativeness, maturity, compassion, toughness, and faith, to help us rebuild our house once again. But most importantly, it needs us. You and me. To build that house with the generosity that is at the heart of the American spirit. A house that is truer and big enough to contain the hopes and dreams of all of our fellow citizens. That is where our future lies. We will rise or fall as a people by our ability to accomplish this task. Now I don’t know about you, but I want that dream back, I want my America back, I want my country back….” Bruce Springsteen