In the first part of this article back in January, I in effect issued a joint endorsement of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The basic argument back then was that I sought to encourage not an “either-or” approach to the emerging Clinton-Obama dilemma facing the US Democratic Party, but a “win-win” combinatorial strategy in which the Democrats sought to put both candidates on the ticket. However I preferred to see Hillary at the top of the ticket as nominee with Obama as running-mate and future presidential candidate. In spite of all that has happened since then (with it becoming clearer that Obama might eventually emerge as the democratic nominee), I remain convinced that the sensible decision for the democrats would have been on the lines argued in that article.
In the article, I wrote as follows, “So if either democratic front-runner becomes President, he or she will be setting a major record in American politics and will be redefining assumptions about US political practices and culture-either way a minority president, whether female or African-American. Now can’t we have two for the price of one? Can’t we have a President Hillary Clinton and Vice-President Barack Obama and make it an event of multiple historical proportions-a first female president, who will also be a first former first lady to be elected Senator and then President, and who will be elected on a ticket that produces the first African-American Vice-President who can then go ahead to become President subsequently! The icing on the cake will of course be that we then have Bill Clinton back in the driving seat of American politics with the panache and excitement that goes with it! For me, this would be a dream scenario.”
I like Barack Obama, indeed I have been greatly inspired by his confidence, charisma and intellect. Its amazing that the African-American son of a Kenyan immigrant and white American mother would at just 46 years be a US Senator, and just on the brink of becoming the candidate of the Democratic Party for Presidency. His ascension to that office would be a truly revolutionary event in American politics, and not just as some argue for the symbolism. It would indicate, just like J.F Kennedy’s election in the 1960s another generational shift in US politics but more importantly signal a major shift in mind-sets as well in America that may lead to perhaps some change in global perceptions on race and ideology. I have no doubt that he would be a better leader than George Bush, and may even be a more charismatic communicator than Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan or even J.F Kennedy. It would be an excellent development if Obama were to win the Presidency in November.
On the other hand, I love Hillary Clinton as well. I believe Hillary will be a fantastic President. She is tough, competent, focused, driven and extremely intelligent. She has stronger economic, foreign relations and national security credentials than Obama, and she is better prepared for the actual job of running the United States. But she will never possess the communication skills, empathy and common touch that her husband and Obama have in such abundance. Moreover she is fiercely hated by conservative America and the Republican Party. I believe the Republican Party regards Hillary as a more formidable opponent than Obama, and Republican Party strategy, money and media power may have been mobilised to assist Obama secure the democratic nomination in the calculation (which may yet turn out wrong) that McCain will easily beat Obama.
We have heard for instance of Republicans registering to vote in Democratic primaries as part of the “Stop Hillary” campaign. We wonder at the relative ease with which Obama raises millions of dollars while Hillary has to put her personal money into the campaign. The media has been particularly nasty towards Hillary and it does appear her campaign’s complaints of her ill-treatment by the media are not unfounded. The Republican establishment lives in mortal dread of a Hillary Clinton Presidency, fearing her liberal ideologue and stubborn intellect and will do whatever it takes to prevent her running in the general elections. On the other hands, the Republicans believe they can handle Obama in the general elections. They will raise fears about his race, religion, his African and Muslim parentage, his willingness to talk to Iran and Syria, his relative national security and economic inexperience, everything and will not be afraid to play dirty.
And as I argued in the January article, McCain himself will not be a push-over! I wrote then before he secured the nomination, “Senator McCain in particular is very experienced and hugely popular with American voters and will be a more formidable opponent for any Democratic nominee”. It was based on these contextual analysis that I felt the more strategic (rather than emotional) response from the democrats would have been to push a joint Clinton-Obama ticket with Hillary at the top of the ticket. Hillary has no serious vulnerabilities that the Republicans can exploit. She is a known quantity with the American voters. She has stronger economic credentials than McCain and is no neophyte on defence and national security which is McCain’s assumed forte. Moreover I believed Obama’s message of change can still be accommodated (afterall voting a female President is also quite revolutionary, especially with an African-American vice) within a Clinton-Obama ticket.
And Obama is only 46 while Hillary is 60. After two terms of a Hillary Presidency, Obama will only be 54, and ready for two terms as President in his own right! Anyway in spite of my arguments, the Democrats (assisted by Republicans!) appear to have chosen Obama as their nominee, but the (now) Obama-Clinton argument is still valid, even though it is less clear that Hillary would want to be vice-president to Barack Obama, or that Obama will feel comfortable with a strong personality like her as his deputy. Nevertheless, the Democratic Party big-wigs must keep the door open to this possibility. As I argued before, “the combination of the experience and policy know-how that Hillary commands, and her strong ties with the democratic establishment through her husband, and Obama’s message of change and bi-partisanship which has resonated loudly with Americans of all races, classes and ages will be a formidable ticket and is more likely to defeat McCain”.
Agbaje is Senior Consultant/CEO of Resources and Trust Company (RTC), a strategy, consultancy and business advisory firm. RTC POLICY is the group’s policy, government and political consultancy division.
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