Reviewing the PDP Convention

Reviewing the PDP Convention

I found it interesting watching the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) conduct its recently concluded convention. The PDP is Nigeria’s ruling party, and whatever one’s disposition to it, the party is currently in control (subject to God of course) of Nigeria’s destiny, and that of the 140 million of us citizens of this nation. So we are interested in how the party conducts itself, because that shapes how it runs our country. One of the exercises I was engaged in leading up to the convention was comparing the PDP Convention to the on-going primaries in the Democratic and Republican parties in the US. Now I am not completely idealistic about what to expect of Nigerian politics, at least in relation to more developed democratic nations, but I nevertheless was interested in observing whether in the post-Obasanjo days, the PDP was going to become more or less democratic.

I actually thought either of the leading candidates for the party chair-former Ebonyi state governor, Sam Egwu and former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim were very good choices, if you put aside the internal power calculations behind their candidacies. For one thing, both of them were civilian politicians, who understand the politics of negotiation, persuasion and consensus, unlike the military triad of Obasanjo, Ahmadu Ali and Bode George who had taken control of the PDP, in much the same manner as they and their colleagues seized control of Nigeria. Egwu in my view was not one of the worst members of the 1999-2007 governors’ class. He was reasonably level-headed and conciliatory and was at worst average in his governance of Ebonyi State. Anyim on the other hand, as Senate President, scored some points for standing up against Obasanjo’s creeping dictatorship.

But of course, the internal power configurations are more important in intra-party offices, so I wasn’t surprised that eventually the governors and President Yar’adua opted for neither of the two. A vote for either candidate would have polarised the party, and probably led to its split or alternatively the permanent subjugation of the losing side. As it was, Egwu had evolved as the candidate of the pro-Obasanjo wing of the party, while Anyim was the candidate of the anti-Obasanjo elements. I believe that Egwu in particular would have easily won the contest, but for Obasanjo’s over-enthusiastic support, and campaign, which in the end proved to be a kiss of death.

I was very optimistic in the days leading up to the convention that the PDP was at last going to have a transparent democratic contest in the mould of its inaugural Jos Convention, in which Obasanjo was elected as presidential candidate over Alex Ekwueme. Given President Yar’adua’s studied refusal to endorse any of the candidates on offer, and his insistence on allowing all contenders free reign to contest, my optimism seemed justified, but in the end the PDP proved that it is just unable to act like a truly democratic organisation. Now what was wrong given the governors’ endorsement of Prince Vincent Ogbulafor and Alhaji Baraje, the Kwara candidate for Secretary, in allowing these candidates secure an overwhelming victory through the ballot box? Can a party which is so untrusting of the ballot box, ever preside successfully over a truly democratic nation?

In the end, President Yar’adua’s posture of non-interference proved to be consistent with a now-emerging pattern-in which the President says one thing publicly, but allows his very trusted allies to implement the execution of his preferred agenda, leaving the President free to disavow the agenda if it fails. There is no doubt in my mind that the President’s allies-Bukola Saraki being leader of that group in the end implemented an agenda that was either explicitly endorsed, or implicitly accepted by President Yar’ adua. Now there is absolutely nothing wrong with a sitting President influencing the choice of his party executive, especially in a presidential system of government, but what is now inexplicable is the party’s unwillingness to have such influence affirmed through the ballot box.

In comparing the PDP Convention with the US Democratic Party primaries, the important point is that the Democratic Party establishment has its preferred candidate-Hillary Clinton. But in spite of that, Barack Obama has put up a strong showing, and if he were to win the nomination, he would in time re-shape the party leadership in line with his mandate. John McCain is not the favourite of the Republican conservative establishment, yet they could not prevent his campaign which is now virtually assured of the party ticket. This way, the two parties renew themselves in line with the popular will, and guarantee that they remain aligned with voter preferences. In the PDP however, the party leadership makes all the decisions, and are unwilling to even test ratification of those decisions from their followers. The result is party primaries in which there is no voting, and eventually general elections which have to be massively rigged since if you cannot trust your own party members, you certainly will not trust the general electorate.

One consequence of the PDP Convention is that the transition to a post-Obasanjo era may have finally commenced. Vincent Ogbulafor owes his emergence to Yar’adua and the PDP governors. The new Secretary owes his position to Governor Buki Saraki. Apart from the South-West members of the new national executive, others will be beholden not to Obasanjo, but to new masters. Even the South-West members will in due course (like typical politicians) discover new allegiances. Obasanjo will of course remain influential as Chairman of the party’s Trustees and as a former President, but the balance of power has certainly shifted.

One question is what the new PDP leadership is likely to stand for in terms of policy and governance, and beyond just politics? Unfortunately we cannot yet say with any assurance. I think Vincent Ogbulafor appears to be a decent politician, who can unite the party, but he will have little impact on governance. The governors who are the new power brokers are not known for any policy advocacy, so in our view, the policy direction will not come from the party, but from the Presidency or elsewhere. Accordingly the PDP is unlikely to evolve into a vehicle for ideas about how the Nigerian society should be governed, at least not very soon. Until a party leadership emerges which derives from within the inner caucuses of the party’s power equation, the party will not lead the development of policy and ideas like the British Labour Party in the United Kingdom or even the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa.

Agbaje is Senior Consultant/CEO of Resources and Trust Company (RTC) a Strategy, Consultancy and Business Advisory Firm. RTC POLICY is the policy, government and political consultancy arm of RTC.