Policy and Economic Review

The global economic environment is decidedly more risky and the chances of a second developed world financial crisis are clearly elevated! In its recent World Economic Outlook (WEO) released in September 2011, the IMF warns that “the global economy is in a dangerous new phase” due to the convergence of slower recovery in advanced economies and “a large increase in fiscal and financial uncertainty which has been particularly pronounced since August”. Uncertainty derives from sovereign debt concerns in Europe-Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Iceland and Spain initially, but concerns now include Belgium and even Italy-and worries that European banks and financial system could be affected as they hold the bonds of these countries. Only Britain and Germany are not been mentioned and even then British banks may themselves be tarred in the event of sovereign default. Meanwhile oil and commodity prices appear to have peaked since April in the case of oil, and February for some food prices. Oil prices have declined for six straight months, with OPEC basket going below $100 per barrel for the first month close since February while the FAO food price index stood at 231 points in August, down from February peak of 238. The IMF WEO reviewed global growth prospects for 2011 and 2012 down to 4% with the structure of uneven growth between developed economies (1.6% and 1.0%) and developing and emerging economies (6.4% and 6.1%) projected for the next two years. The Fund states that risks are clearly to the downside! In spite of declining oil prices, lower global growth prospects, falling foreign exchange reserves and clear pressure on our exchange rates, the federal government released the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for 2012-2015 in which oil prices were projected at $75 per barrel and exchange rates at N153/$ for 2012-2015. This was at a time the CBN was already selling dollars at close to N155/$! The MTEF however factored in supposedly less optimistic scenarios for oil prices at $70 and $65 per barrel. Cynics may describe the three scenarios-$75, $70 and $65 as all optimistic scenarios!!! The last time oil markets fell in 2008, they reached below $40 per barrel! In concluding that risks were to the downside, the IMF noted there would be vulnerabilities in some emerging economies-in my view Nigeria would be one clear possibility. As we were reminded in 2008, slower growth in developed economies means slower oil demand, which implies lower oil prices. The Nigerian economy remains structurally dependent on oil prices for government revenues, foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates! As oil prices fall, while oil importing nations rejoice, Nigeria experiences an oil price shock. We may be in line for another one if current oil price patterns persist! The CBN increased the Monetary Policy Rate to 9.25% on September 19 and shocked markets on October 10 with another increase, this time by 275 basis points! The CBN sticks to its stubborn (and perhaps emotional) rigidity concerning flexibility around exchange rates as it seeks to battle inflationary pressures. If CBN had taken the counsel of the IMF in terms of exchange rate flexibility and discouraging one-way bets against the Naira several months ago, perhaps the bank could have avoided its current exchange rate/interest rate quagmire! In the event, CBN has provided generous dollar subsidies to capital flight, export of corruption proceeds, currency speculation, foreigners, traders and consumption! The only worthwhile beneficiaries of this huge subsidy are manufacturers who constitute only 4% of GDP!!! Meanwhile a N15 margin has emerged between the official CBN rate and all other rates, providing an irresistible incentive to “round-tripping” and fuelling additional surge in foreign currency demand!!! The country has gone through eighteen months of extraordinarily high post-recession oil prices without a single dollar of additional savings, frittered away to the above-listed categories of lucky beneficiaries. Someday someone in CBN or the National Economic Management Team (NEMT) will recognise an unsustainable exchange rate management strategy!!! The economy however continues to grow above 7% with the star sector being telecommunications consistently over 30%; other high growth sectors include solid minerals, building and construction, hotels and restaurants, wholesale and retail trade, and real estate all between 10.4% and 12.3%. The problem remains that growth is not inclusive because of the structure of our economy (growth is dominated in weighted terms by sub-modern agriculture dependent on rainfall patterns, crude oil exports with no domestic value chain, and trading in imported goods; sectors which can generate jobs are either too small in GDP terms of growing too slow) and unemployment at 21.1% is too high. But policy appears to be rising to the challenge. The outlines of a sensible agriculture policy is emerging; power sector road map implementation appears to be proceeding; governance is beginning to look more competent; and there is leadership on the economic front. The financial sector has been a drag on private sector performance and may have boosted unemployment since industry turmoil appeared in 2009, but then resolution appears to have been achieved through nationalisations and the recently-concluded recapitalisations and mergers. We hope the industry will now be left alone to experience stability and growth, and to play its role of economic intermediation.

Steve Jobs 1955-2011

Nigerian society encourages cheapening of honours and lofty words-everyone is a “Chief”, “Alhaji”, “Honourable”, “Dr”, “elder statesman”, “chieftain”. Extraordinary words like “mega” “role model” or “icon” are so carelessly bandied as to become virtually meaningless. Every year hundreds of national honours, universities doctorates and traditional titles are offered usually to anyone who can donate large enough sums of money. When “Chief” became common, we created “High Chief” to differentiate the men from the boys! We have so devalued honour and achievement that it is often difficult to recognise true excellence. But like the Yorubas say, when you see an elephant you can not mistake it for anything else! Steve Jobs is the definition of the words “icon” and “visionary” yet he bore no title-he was simply Steve Jobs. My last obituary was for Tayo Aderinokun; alas Steve Jobs shared the same years of birth and death as Tayo, both deaths had links with cancer, and both were very wealthy men, within the context of their societies. I had a “relationship” with both men-Tayo was my boss in a professional banking environment; but like most citizens of the world, I only met Steve Jobs through his work at Apple Computers. I was however “intimate” with him as a business school professor teaching several of the many case studies written on the PC market, Apple and its truly iconic CEO. My first exposure to computers was not Apple products but the more conventional IBM, HP, Dell, Compaq and Sony personal computers and later laptops. Even though Jobs, his partners Steve Wozniak and A.C “Mike” Markkula and Apple Computers were industry pioneers, by the early 1990s, Apple had become more or less niche products leaders, restricted to devotees in graphics, design, printing, education and other markets where its strengths in graphical user interfaces, design dexterity and ease of use were highly valued. For corporate and professional users, especially in environments such as banking which depended on connectivity within the organisation and the outside world, Bill Gates, Microsoft and the IBM-compatible had basically wiped out Apple. Gates and Jobs had two differing visions of how the PC market would evolve and Bill Gates vision won overwhelmingly! Gates placed his emphasis on connectivity, open systems, the decoupling of hardware and software and a business model that depended on small, but regular annuity incomes. Jobs saw value in great design, productivity, differentiated products and large margins. When I started teaching business strategy in the early to mid-2000s, the case studies essentially cast Steve Jobs as a visionary who got it wrong in the PC market, drawing inspiration from industries (such as automobiles) where a superb product (say a BMW) earned premiums over less-differentiated cars, rather than looking towards perhaps telecommunications or broadcasting where value depended on the number of users and in the particular case of the then emerging technology market, their openness and interconnectedness. Many wrote off Steve Jobs, with Michael Dell of Dell Computers at one time mocking that Jobs should return money to shareholders and close down Apple! But in the event, the joke was on Dell (and we business school types!) as Steve Jobs re-invented himself in consumer electronics through the iPod and iTunes; then went back into computing and publishing with the iPad, and eventually to phones, through the iPhone! Jobs also had strong influence on other industries and companies-he founded NEXT when he was pushed out of Apple and eventually sold the company to Apple for $429million in 1997; he founded Pixar which produced animated films and had a serious impact on media and film industries, producing the popular “Toy Story” film series. Jobs later sold Pixar to The Walt Disney Company in a deal valued at $7.4billion in 2006 becoming Disney’s director and largest individual shareholder with 7% of the company’s stock. In 2010, Forbes estimated Steve Jobs net worth at $8.3billion, the 42nd wealthiest American and one of the richest men in the world. But Jobs significance was not in the amount of money he had in the bank. As he himself noted, “I was worth over $1,000,000 when I was 23, and over $10,000,000 when I was 24, and over $100,000,000 when I was 25, and it wasn’t that important because I never did it for the money“. Jobs was listed as primary or co-inventor on 338 US patents or patent applications for products and technologies as diverse as actual computer and portable devices to user interfaces (including touch-based), speakers, keyboards, power adapters, staircases, clasps, sleeves, lanyards and packages. His real essence was his typification of the American dream; creativity, innovation and the courage to follow his intuition; quest for perfection and desire to impact the world; ability to recover and rise again after every failure; and the final lesson that money can’t buy you health or life. In his words, “almost everything–all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure–these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart”

Dysfunctional at 51

Nigeria is not (yet) a failed state, but clearly failing and dysfunctional! Signs of system failure include inability of the state to protect its people and territory against sundry adversaries-regional militants seeking greater share of oil revenues; Islamic fundamentalists demanding a full Sharia state; armed robbers who take over public highways and banks; kidnappers who regularly and casually abduct citizens for ransom; an educational sector that has basically collapsed-most who can afford it (and many who can’t!) educate their children in countries as varied as UK, USA, Ireland, Canada, Ghana, Togo, Kenya, South Africa, Malaysia, Dubai etc and middle class families go abroad for medical treatment and simple health checks. The Judicial system does not work-litigation may linger for more than five years, and appeals to higher courts may elongate the process to decades; corruption subverts the state which has essentially been hijacked-apportioned for the benefit of those who paid nothing, but have basically converted the state for their own purposes! Policemen request, demand or plead for bribes on public highways; immigration officers solicit “gifts” from returning Nigerians and foreigners at airports; civil servants negotiate payments from citizens who require services from the state. There is no shared sense of common good and the only irreducible minimum is that the “national cake” must be shared equally in line with “federal character”, “zoning”, “rotation” and “consensus”. We cannot agree on anything-citizens’ perspectives are shaped not by any commonly-held values or national ethos, but by ethnic, religious, regional, state, or clan loyalties or alternatively personal interest. It is possible to reverse the process of state failure, but what worries me more these days is the all pervading dysfunction! Or perhaps that is just one more signpost down the road towards state failure!!! A system is dysfunctional when it doesn’t work normally or properly but contrary to normal design and expectations. Let’s examine some examples. Usually people with high risk appetite and entrepreneurial energy create businesses which generate economic activity and employment. Here entrepreneurial types become politicians! Only entrepreneurs will sell their houses and property in order to raise money to contest a party primary in which there are nine other contestants! And then borrow heavily to finance the actual election. Entrepreneurial energy is devoted not to business, but towards capturing a portion of the state. The successful “candidate” proceeds to earn stupendous return on investment, while the losers fight another day! In normal systems, contractors to federal, state and local governments should be business persons while civil servants are those with a passion for social services and administration but here most government contracts are executed by public officers, with the nominal contractors as mere stooges fronting for them. The same officers have responsibility for conceiving, costing and awarding the contracts and since they only can guarantee contract award and payment, they take the largest portion of the contract booty! The political scientist or constitutional lawyer will say the role of legislators in parliamentary democracies is making laws and providing “checks and balances” on the executive, but in Nigeria, legislators do make laws, but (as can be inferred from the relatively few laws passed by the National and State Assemblies since 1999) they may also be contractors as well, as illustrated by the Senate Education Committee and Rural Electrification Agency scandals. So instead of exercising “oversight” over the executive, a legislator may become co-conspirator in executive fraud. All these dysfunctional categories may indeed respond (with some validity perhaps!) that many journalists and newspaper columnists have become public relations consultants, and that much of what is said in newspapers and other media are paid for! The federal government insists on being in charge of every conceivable activity based on a defective constitution. You would imagine that federal authorities desire a long exclusive legislative list on which they alone legislate, as well as a concurrent list on which they can overrule state governments, because they actually intend to manage all those activities they have cornered via the constitution. Well wrong again! Virtually all federal agencies once deployed to the states are almost completely abandoned to state governors-police, customs, immigration, INEC, SSS and even military formations! Talk to any governor and you will understand that (except in cases where there is a political undertone) the notion of federal government is a myth in the states! State governors maintain and sustain virtually all federal institutions in their states, while ogas in Abuja “take care” of their budgetary allocations! There are other instances-state legislatures are de facto departments of state governors’ offices; governors recommend and “appoint” members of the federal cabinet; labour leaders posture for the benefit of naive members, while telling government privately to go ahead with any intended policy; many policemen are criminals; religious leaders are entrepreneurs and often the richest ones; many occultists are Pastors and Alhajis; Nigerians proclaim great religiosity but corruption is endemic; state governors ask for “true federalism” and then beg the federal government to take-over state universities and airports; NGOs are mechanisms for their founders and leaders to live comfortably; university lecturers and medical doctors are always on strike; police summarily execute armed robbers; SSS releases terrorists to Emirs! Nothing functions the way it was designed to work. Why are we surprised that Nigeria is failing?

Privatisation and Sector Competitiveness

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report for 2010 quoting National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data provides growth rates of sectors in the Nigerian economy. It should surprise no one that the fastest growing sector in 2010 was communications at 34.5 per cent! The sector has in fact sustained above-30% growth since 2001 when the digital mobile license auctions were held becoming 4.6% of total GDP (higher than manufacturing and banking and insurance!). The telecommunications sector vividly demonstrates not just the power of private capital and management in transforming sectors, but also illustrates the role government can play in fostering sector competitiveness and transformation through sensible policy (in this case through the BPE’s telecommunications policy 2001), and effective regulation. The second fastest-growing sector, solid minerals grew at 12.3% in 2010. Unfortunately mining activity is insignificant relative to total GDP so its high growth rate makes little effect on the wider economy! The other fast-growing sectors are building and construction (12.2%); hotels and restaurants (12%; wholesale and retail trade (11.2%) and real estate (10.4%). Moderately growing sectors include commercial, social and personal services (9.9%); manufacturing (7.6%); transport (6.7%) and agriculture (5.7%). Low growth sectors include crude petroleum (4.6%); finance and insurance (3.9%) and utilities (3.3%). Crude petroleum only recently began to grow after the amnesty programme restored peace in the Niger-Delta allowing increase in crude output; the financial sector has been hobbled by industry turmoil and has not only become slow-growing, but has also declined to 3.6% of GDP; utilities, essentially government-owned are the slowest-growing entities in the Nigerian economy! Certain sectors do not show up in the GDP data including automobiles and steel/aluminium. Now let’s relate all these to the privatisation data released by BPE and published in the media some weeks back. The data showed that BPE had privatised 122 enterprises in fourteen (14) sectors between 1999 and 2007. The sectors were automobile; cement; steel and aluminium; oil and gas; hotel and tourism; banking and insurance; sugar; solid minerals and mining; paper and packaging; sea ports and terminals; agriculture; aviation; block making; and energy. The data of course puts a lie to the propaganda spread so casually by opponents of privatisation that “80 per cent of privatised companies had failed” and supports BPE’s position that 70% were indeed successful. The list of “performing” companies includes Benue Cement Company; Cement Company of Northern Nigeria; WAPCO; Ashaka Cement; Onigolo Cement, Benin Republic; and Calabar Cement Company in the cement sector. Others are LPG Calabar Depot sold to Sahara Energy; Oando Plc; African Petroleum; Conoil Plc; West African Refinery Company of Sierra Leone and Eleme Petrochemicals all in the oil marketing and petrochemicals sector. In the hotel and tourism sector, successful privatisations include Golden Tulip Festac; Southern Sun Ikoyi; Le Meridien Abuja (now NICON Luxury); Transcorp Hilton and several others. Banking and insurance privatisations include FSB International Bank (part of the contemporary Fidelity Bank); IMB (part of Finbank); NAL Merchant Bank (Sterling Bank); NICON Insurance and Nigerian Re-insurance. There are many other examples of successful privatisations in solid minerals and mining, ports and terminals, agriculture, block making and energy sectors. The data also reveals that government failed even in sectors in which there were no issues of sector competitiveness-cement; oil marketing; hotels; ports and terminals; banks; energy companies etc!!! A careful analysis of the data in fact suggests that the much-trumpeted privatisation failures especially in automobile and steel sectors establish issues of lack of sector competitiveness, rather than necessarily company-specific performance or lack of it. It is analytically dubious for instance to shout to the rooftops over the “failure” of steel sector privatisations, when it is well known that the sector was a failure (as well as a funding drainpipe) long before the government sold off assets in that sector. Is there a need to review and prescribe a sector strategy and policy framework for steel rather than engage in a useless argument over steel sector privatisations? A similar argument relates to automobile (actually motor assembly plants) sector. The simple truth as one friend who had the misfortune of working in that sector has shouted himself hoarse explaining is that the auto assembly plants were structurally uncompetitive once Nigeria devalued its previously over-valued currency. Why do we think the technical partners-Peugeot, Volkswagen, and Mercedes etc. abandoned them to us and went back to their countries? Does anyone think these firms would have abandoned their investments if they saw prospect of success? The only factor that interested the foreign partners in those motor assembly plants was the huge exchange rate subsidy provided by the government of Nigeria through its over-valued currency! Once our dollar reserves were exhausted and we were forced to devalue the currency, the absurd logic of transporting completely knocked down vehicle parts thousands of miles to Nigeria was lost, and these “partners” duly walked away. The point again is that Nigeria needs a policy framework that carefully reviews the automobile value chain, decides what role Nigerian firms can be competitive in playing and creates conditions to enable Nigerian enterprises take advantage accordingly. The point I make is that we may be better off examining the competitiveness of economic sectors in Nigeria and evolving policy to build such where such opportunities exist, rather than a simple-minded lamentation over the “failure” of steel and automobile privatisations.

100 Unclear Days

I voted for President Goodluck Jonathan, privately supported him, publicly advocated support for him on facebook, and to friends, strategic groups and stakeholders I had access to; and endorsed him on this page. I didn’t do this because of a personal relationship (I’ve never met him); not because (as often happens here) I was paid to do so (I’ve never received payment to endorse or support any public officer, candidate or political party, including Jonathan); not because of ethnic or regional affiliation (I’m neither Ijaw nor “South-South”); and not because I requested or was promised any appointment or patronage (I was not). And I am certainly not a PDP member or supporter! In short, I am one of many Nigerians who “voted Jonathan and not PDP” as I wrote in my endorsement because “I regard Jonathan as the candidate of national unity, a federation of co-equal nationalities and national integration, freedom and openness, power sector reform, education and critical infrastructure”.

And if the election were repeated today, with exactly the same candidates and electoral mathematics, I would vote the same way! Jonathan’s minuses were evident before the elections (and I was clear that we “independents” who supported him would have to “police” him to ensure he didn’t fail!), but those of his principal opponents were also starkly apparent! However in the last 100 days, my emotions have ranged from surprise-when the president mentioned at his pre-inauguration lecture that four years was not enough to achieve transformation; alarm-at the worsening security situation in the country; confusion-when the president appeared to agree with Vice-President Sambo’s view that privatisation had failed; shock-when the president said after the police headquarters bombing that terrorism is a global phenomenon that could happen anywhere; bewilderment-when he began his “campaign” for an extended single tenure; anger-when the president after the UN bombing said maybe its our turn to experience terrorism; sadness-at the resumed killings in Jos; and thankfully hope-at the presence in the cabinet and economic team of a core of reformist-minded ministers.

The most evident character attribute on display has been a certain naïveté about the reality of politics and power, especially in a context of having displaced hegemonic elements with a publicly-expressed stake in his failure. This trait has been displayed in the manner the regime lost the speakership office to anti-regime forces; in cabinet composition where he ceded power over many nominations to state governors; and in the choice of “dialogue” as initial preferred means of resolving the “Boko Haram” bombings. In a sense, the president has allowed some sort of power vacuum and as nature abhors such, all sorts of characters-corrupt politicians, perennial power mongers, ethnic chauvinists and regional jingoists, feudalists and wards of the prebendal state, contractors and rent-seekers, civil servants, closet Jihadists and even his political adversaries (who may already have thoroughly infiltrated his inner circle) have sought to fill the gap!

The biggest significant policy and leadership gap in the last one hundred days is that President Jonathan has not articulated and communicated a grand vision and direction for Nigeria and (until the last few days) yet to provide policy content to his “transformation agenda” with the consequence that the words “transformation agenda of Mr President” remained an undecipherable mantra! What kind of country does Jonathan want to create? What does he want to “transform”? What does he think is wrong with Nigeria? What does he want to change? Does he want accommodation with Nigeria as it is, or does he really want to change it? How will he “transform” Nigeria? When? How will he measure success?

Let me summarise what I think has not gone well so far-non-articulation of a clear and compelling vision and non-definition of the “transformation agenda”; squandering of goodwill over the extended tenure distraction; often inexplicable display of insufficient presidential firmness and conviction; initial confounding response to the Boko Haram bombings and other cases of terror and insecurity; the naivety with which the zoning matter was handled and the subsequent displacement of the South-West from national leadership; the questionable quality of some critical personal and regime appointments; unduly large composition of the National Economic Management Team (NEMT)-when there were twenty-eight persons, I worried that it better resembled a “consultative forum” rather than an economic “management” team, and more members have since been added; the Petroleum Industry Bill is yet to re-appear in parliament; resumption of violence in Jos, with seeming connivance of some military and security officials; most importantly action was slow to commence on substantive policy and governance challenges of the Nigerian nation.

But the outlook may be more encouraging! The cabinet has a small core of strong reformers-Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Akinwunmi Adesina, Barth Nnaji and Olusegun Aganga in charge of critical portfolios-finance, agriculture, power, and trade and investment; while NEMT composition is bloated, the real work may get done by the more-focused implementation team; Ambassador Ashiru is very strong in foreign affairs and I strongly support the recognition of the Libyan Transitional National Council as a bold and proactive measure consistent with Nigeria’s interests and values; Finally the power sector road map is proceeding in spite of all obstacles. I expect the next 100 days to have many more positives!!!

The Role of the State

There are numerous activities which can ONLY be carried out by governments. Take defence and national security-maintaining disciplined and effective armed forces and intelligence agencies; defending the country and its citizens from external aggression or internal insurrection and protecting its territorial integrity; maintaining security agencies, carrying out covert operations to protect vital national interests; gathering information and “intelligence” regarding matters of military, security or economic interests etc. Intelligence agencies often work in concert with diplomatic services-another activity exclusively undertaken by the state. Governments maintain foreign relations, operate embassies, employ diplomats and ensure protection of the nation’s external interests.

The state ensures law and order, and administration of justice, maintains police forces, civil courts, enforcement of criminal justice, including prosecution of offenders, maintain prisons and rehabilitation centres and employs court bailiffs and other people and processes that ensure the ultimate sanction of law. The court system is maintained by the state, and judicial officers are employees of the state. The state organises the Civil Service-maintaining the continued operations of the state and delivering services to the public-land administration, town and country planning, traffic management etc-supporting elected public officials in executing their agenda and maintaining the integrity of the state.

The state is responsible for most public infrastructure-most roads, rail infrastructure, airports and maritime services are owned by government though services such as airport management or train shuttles may be private sector operated. I am not aware of any country in the world (even the most capitalist) in which up to ten percent of public road network is owned by any interests other than the state. Most social services are delivered by the state-public education and health, urban mass transportation, public libraries, city halls etc. The state is responsible for virtually all aspects of the investment climate and economic competitiveness-registration of companies; registration of title to land; effecting dividend remittances; security and law and order; enforcement of contracts; building approvals etc.

The state controls the entry and exit of goods (customs and excise), people (immigration), capital importation (central bank and banks); public debt management (ministries of finance, budget offices and debt management agencies); narcotics and restricted products; the state even controls entry to the world (birth registration) and exit there from (registration of deaths)!!! In the economic sphere, the state manages macroeconomic stability and fiscal operations, currency, exchange rates, inflation and financial sector supervision, taxation, sovereign savings etc. Indeed the entire job of regulating the private economy can ONLY be carried out by the state-aviation and airlines; banks and financial institutions; telecommunications and utilities; industrial safety and standards, food and drugs, environmental standards, weather and meteorological services, etc. The state is charged with ensuring free competition and absence of monopolies and anti-competitive behaviour. The list of exclusive state services and activities runs long!!!

How has the Nigerian state fared in these EXCLUSIVE and CRITICAL responsibilities it carries out (or is supposed to carry out?) Government’s report card will note that it has been unable to preserve public order or prevent armed robberies, kidnappings, militancy and communal crisis-leading to the deaths of thousands of Nigerians since our return to civil rule. In Warri, Aguleri-Umuleri, Sagamu, Niger-Delta, Jos, Kano, Maiduguri, Bauchi, Kaduna, Kano etc, lives were lost in hundreds and thousands to crises-over elections, Danish cartoons, beauty contests, communal differences, religion, land and other matters that should normally be resolved by a competent state. Administration of justice has basically broken down! Torture, summary executions, bribery and rampant corruption pervade our policing system-the police is NOT your friend, and the courts are slow and ineffective! Most recently our Chief Justice and Court of Appeal President have accused each other of corruption! Our intelligence agencies have demonstrated how easy it is to throw bombs-on Independence Day and at the police and UN headquarters! Niger-Delta militants, Northern Almajiri, Boko Haram and just about anyone who is angry have often fought the state to a stand-still!

Our most important highways-Sagamu-Benin, Lagos-Ibadan are totally derelict; Government abandons major middle-belt highways-Lokoja, Abuja, Nasarawa etc to armed robbers who routinely kill citizens including members of the ruling elite; South-East land is casually lost to erosion; Government could deliver only 470,000 telephone lines and less than 4,000 MW of electricity to 150 million people in fifty years; Ministries and agencies reportedly pay bribes to secure release of statutory allocations; Immigration officers openly beg visitors for bribes and customs officers are the biggest smugglers; The federal and state governments can’t manage their finances; Fake drugs and substandard goods are pervasive; Government has totally destroyed public education, and our Presidents travel abroad for medical treatment; The nation relies on a rail network built by colonialists almost a century ago; The state taxes probably less than ten per cent of its citizens; We send 25 and 28 year-olds to under 17 and 20 football competitions; The state has been subverted by corruption, ethnic and religious bigotry, nepotism and complete absence of altruistic behaviour and sense of common good!!!

Why would anyone want such a dysfunctional state to run airlines, banks, telephone companies, hotels, factories, or businesses of any sort? I may understand if Chinese, Japanese, UAE citizens or Singaporeans ponder the role of the state in business, but Nigerians? We’ve got to be joking…or worse!!!

A Call for a Second Dialogue Committee!!!

Religious Harmony

The Yorubas of Western Nigeria offer the world lessons in forging societal harmony in spite of being of different faiths. In virtually all Yoruba families you find Christians, Muslims and adherents of traditional and alternative (Grail, Eckankar, Rosicrucian etc) faiths. All my four grandparents were Muslims, indeed Alhajis and Alhajas. My parents were born Sikiru and Raliatu and only became Christians, thus Solomon and Margaret, as young persons, as the combination of Christian evangelism and education persuaded many to the Christian faith. Yet some of my parents’ brothers and sisters remained Muslims, so I have uncles, aunties, cousins, nieces and nephews who are Muslims. To the best of my knowledge, my grandparents never objected to their children’s adoption of Christianity, yet never wavered in commitment to their Islamic faith till their death.

I remember once observing my mother, herself now late, feeling quite unhappy. She, a committed Christian was apparently concerned that her mother who earnestly desired to, had not been able to observe the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca. She was determined to remedy that situation, yet the cost of our education did not readily yield space for the expenses of the obligatory trip to Mecca! Well whatever sacrifice it would have required, the next year, my maternal grandparents went to Mecca, and we found the money to welcome them with an “Alhaji and Alhaja Kaabo” owambe party in typical Yoruba fashion! I may be known as Opeyemi Agbaje, but my grandparents duly gave me a Muslim name (which shall not be revealed in this column!) and indeed there were those who would only call me by that name!!!

As a teenager, the best time to visit my beloved “Alhaja” (as my maternal grandmother became known), was during Ramadan when I could eat my cake, and have it! Alhaja would wake you up to break the fast with her (even though you had not really fasted!); you could then go back to sleep and wake up late morning to a “regular” breakfast; have a normal lunch with the non-fasting and/or Christian members of the large household; “break fast” again early evening; and again enjoy dinner within the nightly fast-breaking window. I recall also joining the local boys as they took “Ileya” rams for head-butting contests during the bigger Islamic festival season! In Yorubaland, there is no telling, except for insiders, who is a Christian or Muslim during religious ceremonies, as everyone joins in the gaiety and celebrations.

This multiple religious heritage accounts for why Yoruba society has been largely immune to religious politics and why the people remain by-and-large unaffected by religious differences. Any politician, who tries to import religion into politics in Yorubaland, is likely to receive a shocker as Christians, Muslims and even traditionalists are likely to turn against such a person. In this season of Ramadan, I commend this approach to people of faith all over the world.

A Call for a Second Dialogue Committee!!!

Last Friday evening, I posted the following comment on facebook-“Boko Haram has bombed the UN office in Abuja killing at least 18 people and injuring several others. I urge President Jonathan (as usual) to set up a committee to dialogue with Boko Haram. In the spirit of reconciliation, the members of the dialogue committee may include Tanko Yakasai, Ibrahim Babangida, Muhammadu Buhari, Adamu Ciroma, Abubakar Atiku and Nasir El-Rufai! Troubled Country!!!” The post attracted interest and comments from “my friends and I” and we unanimously adopted the suggestion as a “vigorous and robust” response to the “dastardly” bombing. Some important modifications came from my friend “T.O” (any educated Nigerian newspaper reader must know who that is!) who noted that the proposed membership did not reflect “federal character”. Accordingly he recommended that we include my friend Femi Fani-Kayode to represent the Yoruba Council of Elders!

T.O also highlighted the need for a committee spokesperson proposing either Kazeem Afegbua or Senator J. K. N Waku. I deemed Waku rather old for the “onerous assignment”, so I chose Afegbua who has adequately demonstrated the “vigour and robustness” required for this critical national responsibility! Another Facebook friend, Chigozie wondered why I had excluded the (in his words oh!) “Almighty Gusau” I agreed to redeem this omission, but the resourceful T.O pointed out again that Gusau would be a good fit for the position of “Coordinating Member of the Boko Haram Dialogue Committee”!!! One fellow suggested including Tunde Bakare in the committee.
I am not sure this recommendation was accepted! On my part, I wondered which constituency Bakare would represent, not been from Borno or Bauchi States or anywhere in the precincts from which Boko Haram originated, and not been a known apostle of dialogue! We are undergoing “further consultations” on that particular nomination! Meanwhile in place of Bakare’s controversial nomination, I suggested Mallam Yahaya Kwande, which was unanimously accepted. Finally Benjamin nominated the Sultan of Sokoto, who we all agreed should serve as Chairman.

“My friends and I” agreed that “the perpetrators of this heinous act must be apprehended” in order that after their apprehension, we can explain the importance of dialogue and peaceful nation-building to them. We also disagreed with Christian Purefoy who claimed on CNN that “after this kind of thing, nothing gets done” noting that setting up a dialogue committee is not “nothing”.