Thursday, July 7, 2011

Jonathan's First Month

President Jonathan went into May 29 on a mixed note-positively he signed the Freedom of Information, Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority, Anti-Terrorism, Anti-Money Laundering and 2011 Appropriation Acts. Unfortunately he couldn’t persuade the National Assembly to pass the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). He made only two appointments on his first day in office-the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Anyim Pius Anyim and National Security Adviser (NSA), Lt. Gen Andrew Owoye Azazi. While Anyim’s appointment resonated politically (especially with Ohaneze Ndigbo), it was less optimal for policy and governance. I consider Azazi’s re-appointment an excellent decision. It was perplexing that Jonathan made only those two appointments for one whole month!

At the very least, an executive presidency in a complex country like Nigeria should have named at least an inner core-Chief of Staff (which doesn’t require Senate confirmation); Spokesman; National Assembly Liaison; Political Adviser; and Senior Policy Adviser. The president could have named them as personal aides until the National Assembly resolution authorising the number of Special Advisers. This vacuum in the presidency was at least partly responsible for the debacle of government’s embarrassing defeat in the race for House of Representative Speaker, which reflected the absence of a political/policy/strategy team. A proactive strategy team would have zoned SGF position to South-West and Speaker to South-East rather than the unsustainable policy adopted and even then a strong governance core could still have persuaded the representatives to be on the same page with Aso Rock.

The president’s reaction to “Boko Haram” (BH) bombings on inauguration day and
afterwards culminating in the audacious attack on the Abuja police headquarters has been hardly re-assuring! I wonder the point intended with the statement about terrorism being a global phenomenon that could happen to anyone!!! Government’s job is to confront and defeat it, not to suggest its inevitability!!! Eventually when some days ago the president got around to saying “enough is enough”, I doubt the pronouncement had much credibility with most Nigerians. I suspect there has been some transition within BH that has resulted in better logistics capabilities, deeper intelligence, higher funding and increased sophistication. The “new” bold BH is certainly operationally different from the one that fired from “okadas” in Maiduguri! Government must investigate what factors (and people) supervised and financed this transformation!!!

The president’s cabinet choices have also been mixed. Markets, reformers and international partners would have been excited by reports of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s inclusion. Is Omobola Johnson in or out? If Okonjo-Iweala, Aganga and Dr Shamsudeen Usman are in the team, what will be the allocation of roles amongst them? I am pleased with Professor Barth Nnaji’s nomination and I urge Nigerians to tell the electricity workers opposed to his nomination to shut up! The continuity in National Planning is probably optimal given Usman’s supervision of the Vision 2020 process. I however intend to scrutinize his proposed law on Vision 2020 implementation VERY CAREFULLY as it seems to contain elements seeking to constrain economic policy and development in states and local governments based on federal government dictation.

I believe the president made some good reappointments-Professor Ruquayatu Rufai in education; Muhammed Bello Adoke; as Attorney General and Justice Minister; and Emeka Wogu at Labour. Professor Onyebuchi Chukwu may have also tried, but going-forward he should be even handed between doctors and other health sector professionals, and I believe the National Health Bill should be amended in this regard. The re-appointment of Mrs Dieziani Allison-Maduekwe as petroleum minister was bound to be controversial given the allegations peddled relentlessly in the media against her. Thus far quite frankly, it has been impossible to tell whether the stories reflect truth or blackmail. It is good to observe the nomination of Jumoke Akinjide-a first class lawyer whose education and experience includes Kings College London, a Harvard LLM, excellent legal practice especially as an expert energy lawyer and solicitor and a stint as ex-President Obasanjo’s special assistant on FCT. I think the president made two other excellent selections-Ambassador Gbenga Ashiru, a splendid fit for foreign affairs and Dr Akinwunmi Ayo Adesina, an agricultural expert of global repute.

The other cabinet choices appear mostly like political pay-offs-PDP Acting Chairman Dr Bello Haliru Mohammed; Princess Stella Oduah-Ogiemwonyi; Elder Godsday Orubebe; PDP Auditor Samuel Ortom; Hajiya Zainab Maina etc. The nominations of Bolaji Abdullahi and Tonye Cole reflect the growing influence of governors in Nigeria’s politics. I expect the touted appointment of Dr Reuben Abati in place of Ima Niboro as presidential spokesman to put some coherence and strategy into the government’s communication approach! The process of cabinet appointments has drawn attention to the emerging absurd demarcation between “technocrats” and politicians seeking government appointment. I suggest we focus on competence, commitment and integrity instead!!! The process has also entrenched a peculiarly Nigerian route to federal offices-state (in effect governors’) nominations; SSS clearance; and the loss of presidential discretion. The process may also reinforce the emerging marginalisation and abandonment of the South-West (some of it self-inflicted!) at the federal level.

Overall this regime’s character remains unclear and President Jonathan is yet to stamp his authority on the emerging cabinet and government.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Tayo Aderinokun 1955-2011

I met Tayo Aderinokun sometime around September 1990 as I sought a move from the old First Bank to a more nimble “new generation” bank. Two older family friends strongly recommended the upcoming Guaranty Trust Bank and I submitted my CV through them. I saw Tayo and Fola Adeola at the Victoria-Island offices of First Marina Trust Ltd, a finance company managed by Tayo. The meeting was short, and my first impressions might not have been excellent. Both were in their early and mid-thirties, their smart shirts gleaming and they were smoking! I collected my employment letter some days later and resumed on November 1, 1990 with 83 others, at a hired training school while construction of the bank premises continued for another few months.

It became immediately clear that “Fola and Tayo” knew where they were going! Fola was the visionary, grand strategist and motivator; “Uncle T” as we soon started calling him was less communicative; but more practical and grounded; and had a nose for money! While Fola pushed the dreams, Tayo set the boundaries, and often led implementation. It was a classic “CEO/COO” team and probably one of the most effective and complementary leadership teams one could ever experience. Tayo was a consummate professional and stickler for excellence. He was extremely focused, along with the inspirational Fola, on building a world-class, successful African bank and they succeeded probably beyond their expectations. Guaranty Trust was their life and they put their considerable wits, energies, resources, and maybe their blood into making it work. “The Plaza” at Adeyemo Alakija, Victoria-Island was an iconic representation of their vision. It resembled a London, New York or Paris bank, and the bank’s service delivery; people; professionalism; corporate governance; and branding aspired to global standards. Most importantly, they achieved exceptional financial results! Tayo was in his elements during the “Monthly Profitability Report” (MPR) review meetings and investors in the bank were the better for it.

When Tayo took over as CEO in 2002, some may have doubted he could sustain the phenomenal performance recorded under Fola’s leadership. Tayo lacked Fola’s charisma and people skills; was shy and quiet; and had an insular, less communicative approach. But as GTBank’s performance since then testifies, Tayo was a first class manager; very driven and with uncanny instincts about market direction. He was strategically disciplined, to the bank’s benefit, when trouble befell the industry! Uncle T had a good and generous spirit…and some eccentricities! He worked hard and played hard-privately off course. He loved the TGIFs, whisky, and his cigarettes. He enjoyed life’s pleasures and had impeccable taste! His table was always clean and sparkling, such that the uninitiated may have imagined he was idle. He kept a box on his table containing hundreds of sharpened pencils. He had his temper too, and God help you if you got on Tayo’s wrong side! He tended to have a narrow circle of friends and could be indifferent about those excluded from that inner circle. Yet, beyond the tough bank CEO, he was a gentle, kind and humble spirit who could have sang Tuface song-“If to say na just me!”

A few personal encounters shed some light on the real, inner Tayo-one day I walked into his office for some approval. He was happy with me-with Tayo it was easy to tell. I had just helped resolve a protracted Apapa property development to which the bank was exposed. He caught me glancing at a Citibank School of Banking brochure on his table and handed it over, asking if I was interested in any of the programmes. That was how I attended my first overseas course in New York in April 1995; we had one difficult female customer, who had stretched our patience to the limit but inexplicably always came out of Tayo’s office with some more forbearance. I later found out her strategy-she simply burst into tears and Tayo embarrassed and confused would grant her prayers and quickly usher her out of his office; on one occasion, we had just concluded a meeting where a “born again” customer had tried to evangelise him. Tayo told me he admired the humility of the Pastor behind the evangelical wave, but wasn’t convinced this was the “real thing”. He mentioned a friend who caught in spiritual fervour had donated a generator leased to him by the bank to his Church. We had the unpleasant task of retrieving the generator from the Church! It struck me that Tayo knew the “real thing”, and may have been fervently devout had he encountered it. Uncle T took a chieftaincy title in Owu, Abeokuta in 2009.

When I informed Tayo I was going into consultancy and teaching at Lagos Business School, he went surprisingly passionate, affirming his intent to retire into education-managing a secondary school and later built Day Waterman College in Abeokuta in fulfilment of that vision. Unfortunately he retired to the heavens! I saw Uncle T for the last time on January 4, 2011 with his wife at an ex-colleague’s 50th birthday party, his usual reserved and quiet presence. My condolences to Fola; his wife Funlola and children; his friends particularly my “egbons”-Jimi Agbaje, Akin Akintoye, Bode Agusto, Sola Adeeyo, Akin Kekere-Ekun; his brother Kayode and family; his colleagues at GTBank and First Marina; and my friend, Salamatu. May his soul rest in peace.

Women, Sex and Power

There is an epidemic of sex scandals consuming men of power around the world. The roll call appears to be a “who is who” in global politics, sports and finance! Tiger Woods kicked off the parade; Since then a variety of names have followed-Chelsea and England football captain, John Terry; former California Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger; respected Manchester and Welsh footballer, Ryan Giggs; The most recent “victims” are the biggest-International Monetary Fund Managing Director, Dominique Straus-Khan (DSK) and US Congressman, Anthony Weiner. DSK, who a few months ago was one of the most powerful men in the world, seemingly destined to be the next President of France, was in the twinkle of a lustful hotel-room eye transformed into a common New York criminal, in handcuffs and detained in a notorious prison. Today he stays in more luxurious surroundings in a Manhattan apartment paid for by his loyal wife, but it’s a prison all the same!

What is it that makes men (whoever is without sin, should cast the first stone!!!) endanger everything-reputation, family, wealth and career etc. when faced with a beautiful (or sometimes not-so-beautiful) woman and the prospect of illicit sex? Why would recently-married Congressman Weiner, a popular New York Congressman whose pregnant spouse is aide to US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and widely considered a future Mayor of New York, send compromising pictures on Twitter to women he had never met? Why was he willing to take that risk? Why would former New York Governor, Elliot Spitzer, knowing he had made powerful enemies fighting organised crime, securities fraudsters, big multinationals who abused the environment, mortgage lenders etc endanger his political career by dealing with a prostitution service? What was he thinking? Was he thinking? Do men lose capacity for thinking when such actions are taken? Is this a case of temporary insanity?
Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Austrian-American former body-builder, model, actor, celebrity, businessman and politician who was Mr Universe at 20 in 1967 and Mr Olympia seven times; a Hollywood icon; Republican Governor of California married for over twenty-five years to Maria Shriver, niece of ex-President John. F Kennedy has just being discovered to have fathered a child fourteen years ago with the family’s Guatemalan housekeeper, and kept this from his wife until very recently. Is it just our nature as men? John Terry caused uproar in Chelsea and England when it emerged that he had dated the girlfriend of his teammate in both club and country, Wayne Bridge causing England manager, Frank Capello to strip him of the England captaincy for a while. Ryan Giggs case(s) are more scandalous, apparently! The fellow had apparently maintained an eight-year affair with his brother’s girlfriend and later wife!!! Giggs has also made an inadvertent contribution to British law with his now subverted “super-injunction” preventing revelation of another affair with Imogen Thomas.

David Blunkett lost his place as Home Secretary under Tony Blair because of an affair with Kimberly Fortier, an American Publisher who later decided to return to her husband; Tiger Woods lost his reputation and marriage (and a lot of money!) because of revelations about his sex life; President Bill Clinton was almost impeached because of his affair with Monica Lewinsky; David Beckham had his turn in the scandal tabloids; and even the dreaded General Abacha’s death is rumoured to have a connection with Indian “apples”!!! Who will save the male race from this affliction of testosterone??? The problem seems to go back to the end (actually beginning) of time as anyone familiar with the Bible can attest. Maybe Adam would not have eaten the “forbidden fruit” but for Eve’s prodding; King David paid a high price for the attractions of Uriah’s wife, Bathsheba; Samson met his waterloo in Delilah; Abraham had his time with the maidservant with serious, generational and historical consequences; and Jacob had to work for fourteen years just to get married to Rachael!!! Perhaps the matter is spiritual? Certainly it seems to be the surest route (as all the Biblical and current examples suggest) through which destinies are altered or destroyed! Ask Dominique Strauss-Khan whose hopes of becoming French President can only be resurrected by God Almighty himself!!!

Why do these issues seem positively correlated with men of exceptional strength (sportsmen), power (politicians and Kings) and riches? On the other hand, accounts of divorce proceedings in our customary courts suggest that similar scandals reach into the lower classes of society, except that you are not likely to sell many newspapers reporting the affair between an unknown bricklayer and his colleague’s street hawker wife!!! Cases like that of DSK illustrate the complexity of sexual relationships. Was there consent? What is consent? How is consent communicated-explicitly, implicitly or a blend of both? Does consent have social or cultural contexts or is it an objective verifiable transaction? Can consent first given (or assumed to be given) be withdrawn (or claimed to be withdrawn)? Would DSK have been arrested for his “crime” in France, Italy or Nigeria? Is there a political dimension to these things? Is sex emerging as the ultimate weapon of political competition? Can you discount targeting by political opponents from the cases of DSK, Weiner, Clinton and Abacha?

And then the role of technology-with Face book, Twitter, YouTube, Camera Phones and DNA, the scope and consequences of “temporary insanity” appears gravely elevated. Hmmm.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

The South West Agenda

The most significant consequence of the 2011 elections was the national power shift in favour of President Jonathan’s new coalition with its centre of gravity in the South-South, South-East and North-Central, “strong” support in the South-West and “sufficient” support in the North-West and North-East. The other critical outcome is the return of the South-West to opposition, “progressive” politics in the tradition of the Action Group (AG), Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD), this time under the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). The South-West electorate decisively rejected “mainstream” politics as advocated by ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) South-West faction as their forbears had rejected “Demo” politics in the first republic and National Party of Nigeria (NPN), National Republican Convention (NRC) and PDP until the 2003 hijacking of the West by Obasanjo and Bode George.

Apart from disillusionment with the PDP and Obasanjo, South-West voters were voting, in my view, for a federal framework that allows the region develop at its own (implicitly faster) pace and the type of social democratic policies and social investment that represents the political and governance heritage in the region. It will be misleading however to assume that the 2011 elections represents a permanent and irreversible rejection of PDP and other political alternatives. Having recovered their sovereignty, our people will in future exercise it against any incumbents that fail to meet the (high) expectations of voters. Given the fact that all the states in the South-West are under the ACN, with the exception of Ondo State which is under a Labour Party government that may also be considered “progressive” (and which actually took power from the PDP with some support from the ACN leadership), there is also a widespread expectation within the region that the party and its governors will cooperate to spread the type of development witnessed in Lagos State across the entire South-West.

How can the high expectations of South-West voters be met? What policies should be implemented across the region? What should be the South-West agenda? The philosophical and constitutional anchor will obviously have to be true federalism! South-West citizens and voters will expect their leaders, governors and legislators to lead the campaign for a return to real federalism in Nigeria. This includes fiscal federalism that will encompass a review of the revenue allocation system in favour of states and local governments; and retention of value-added and other tax revenues in states of collection. It should also include substantial devolution of powers to subsidiary levels of government. We also need to carefully re-consider the matter of state police. As this will require constitutional amendment, an interim measure stipulating re-deployment of all police men and officers below the level of Commissioner of Police to their states of origin should be advocated. State governors should also request full operational control of state police commands except in electoral, constitutional and political matters and matters involving threats to the territorial integrity of the federation.

Beyond federalism, I would advocate a developmental strategy for the South-West based on five pillars-power and infrastructure; education, science and technology; agriculture and industrialisation; services; and security and law and order. Regarding power and infrastructure, the governors should seek self-sufficiency in power generation through private power providers and a role in power distribution, as well as dedicated Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in all industrial clusters and tertiary educational institutions. The most important infrastructural requirement is for a modern, integrated, multi-modal transport network throughout the region, including development of rural roads; leveraging water and rail transport opportunities; modernising the regional road network; and collaborating with the private sector and the federal government in pursuance of these objectives.

For fifty years, the focus of South-West educational philosophy has been access, through the mantra of free education. While this should be retained, increased emphasis must be placed on quality considering the state of our educational system. I suggest focus on upgrading infrastructure; science and technical education; economics, management and entrepreneurship; ethics and standards; and teacher re-training and welfare. The states may also consider jointly establishing a world-class multi-campus university as recently suggested by one of the governors; and ensuring broadband coverage of all universities and schools. A policy framework that links agriculture to manufacturing through extending the agriculture value chain to storage, processing and manufacturing; providing farming and industrial estates; power and infrastructure support; and loan and incentives schemes may also be worthwhile. Land reforms to deal with the consent requirements of the Land Use Act may help both agricultural and commercial development, as well as development of a mortgage sub-sector.

The regional strategy for services should be focused on areas of clear comparative advantage-financial services (ensuring Lagos becomes an international financial centre in line with FSS 2020); tourism (establishing an integrated regional tourism strategy and calendar) leveraging the many festivals and ceremonies; mountains and hills; rivers and waterways; cultural endowments; palaces and historical landmarks in the region; global outsourcing (focused on professional services and call centres); music and film; as well as sports development and export. Success in all the identified priority areas rests on one final pillar-security and law and order. As Lagos State has done in the last few years, all the states in the South-West must endeavour to make the region a (relatively) crime-free zone so that economic and social activities may thrive and in order that the region can fulfil its potential as the fastest developing economic region in Africa!

Agenda for Jonathan

President Goodluck Jonathan will take the oath of office as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for the second time on Sunday May 29, 2011, the first being on May 6, 2010 after the death of late President Umaru Yar’adua. This time will however be different-President Jonathan has won the office on his own merit and in his own right and now has the mandate and legitimacy to “transform Nigeria”. When Jonathan became Acting President early last year, I wrote “Memo to Goodluck Jonathan” in which I counseled a limited agenda, centered on electoral reform; power; Niger-Delta and anti-corruption. This time, Jonathan must design a comprehensive programme for impacting all aspects of national life over the next four years.

The president has some immediate priorities even in this time of transition-getting critical legislation enacted into law BEFORE the inauguration, in particular the 2011 appropriation; the sovereign wealth fund; petroleum industry and the freedom of information bills. He must also ensure continued implementation of the power sector road map even through transition. The objective must be to ensure completion of the privatization of ALL PHCN unbundled entities slated for privatization within the next three months! The president must also mandate the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) and National Council on Privatization to complete concessioning of the transmission entity within the same period. Unfortunately given the post-election violence in Northern Nigeria, Jonathan will also have to design an agenda for national reconciliation to heal the deep wounds inflicted by the senseless carnage. It seems to me that he will have to isolate those extremist elements who seem intent on dividing our people, and draw a consensus across the country around moderate positions.

Beyond the immediate, Jonathan’s core objectives in my view should centre around power and infrastructure; human capital and social sector investments; deepening economic reforms and improved fiscal and macroeconomic management; and corruption and national values. In respect of power, I believe the president already has a robust strategy embedded in the power sector road map he launched in 2010. The focus now must be to remove all obstacles to the swift execution of that programme, especially labour and geo-regional obstructions and ensure that by December 2011, Nigeria has a power sector that is private sector-controlled. Beyond privatizing the PHCN entities, a strategy for turning over the ongoing National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) to the private sector must be designed. The Yar’adua/Jonathan era has seen a lot of budgetary allocation to road infrastructure, but perhaps execution (and value-for-money) has lagged. President Jonathan must now ensure that we see tangible evidence of the budget spend in terms of vast improvements in our national road network.

The government must focus ALL its attention on social sector reforms-education; health; poverty and unemployment. The president seems to have shown some passion for education reform. In line with the trend suggested in the 2011 appropriation, we need to continue to increase investments in education and science and technology to redress the education sector disaster the nation is marching inexorably towards. Clearly we need better educational infrastructure; more emphasis on quality; better trained and motivated teachers; leveraging science and technology; and improved ethics and standards in our educational sector. The government must also seek consensus around reform of the Almajirai educational system in the North. The key health sector challenges in my view are two-fold-sector reform to ensure we have the right structures and institutional mechanisms in place and sustainable financing. The president needs a team of financial, insurance and health sector experts to review the current sub-optimal health insurance system and come up with a comprehensive reform that will ensure universal health coverage in a sustainable framework. It is clear that we have a national emergency as regards poverty and unemployment. The report of the Dangote Committee on Job Creation already provides a “roadmap” for dealing with the jobs issue, but we need a similar “Marshall Plan” for poverty alleviation, social welfare and rural development.

The agenda in respect of economic management must focus on achieving diversification from oil, focusing in my view on agriculture, solid minerals; manufacturing, transportation and tourism. Critical in achieving these are power, security, and policy reforms in these sectors. The problems of Niger-Delta militancy, Boko Haram insurrection and general state of crime and insecurity MUST be laid to rest. We also need a competition and anti-trust law to ensure what we get is a free market, not a free jungle; and continued regulatory and investment climate reforms. In the fiscal side, it would be a giant step forward if the Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill is signed into law to institutionalize better fiscal frameworks. I will also advocate an amendment to the fiscal responsibility act to compel the federal (and states?) government to devote at least seventy percent of budget to capital expenditure by 2015, with the law mandating progression to that minimum on a year-to-year basis. We also need reform of the public services, compliance with procurement regulations; and a true anti-corruption war.

I also hope Jonathan will have time for legal and constitutional reforms to enthrone a true federal system, including devolution of powers to states and local governments; fiscal federalism; independent candidacy and diaspora voting; a fair and accurate census and voters register; reform of the land use act (to modify or remove the consent requirements), and introduction of commercial courts. Finally I believe the president must focus on national values and ethical re-orientation.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Jonathan's Path To Victory

President Goodluck Jonathan has secured the mandate for transformation that he sought from Nigerians. His party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) retains a majority in both houses of the National Assembly, even though smaller than the outrageous landslides of 2003 and 2007; the PDP also controls most state governorships, even though it suffered a whitewash in the South-West. The president secured 25% or more of the votes across all geo-political zones even though he did not win outright majorities in core Hausa-Fulani states. And the margin of his victory-over 22 million votes to the runner-up’s 12 million is overwhelming.

This columnist has privately expected a Jonathan presidency since the Supreme Court affirmed late Umaru Yar’adua’s election in December 2008. Given that Yar’adua’s state of ill-health was public knowledge, I had somewhat expected Northern strategists to recognise that the only route to preserving the region’s hold on the presidency was a Supreme Court ruling annulling Yar’adua’s victory and allowing a fresh election. In the event that didn’t happen and in my analysis, that judgment merely removed the last obstacle to then Vice-President Jonathan ascending to the presidency! All efforts by the Yar’adua clique led by his wife and other contending power groups to prevent Jonathan’s inevitable succession failed in the face of national and global determination to ensure adherence to the Nigerian constitution.

Political analysts and even Jonathan’s opponents have often underrated him, but it is clear he deserves some credit for the string of strategic victories he has recorded. Jonathan carefully and tactically navigated the numerous minefields placed on his path during the Yar’adua power vacuum. At a point his party chairman, the powerful governors, Northern leaders, and just about every strategic power constituency imagined he was of no consequence and could be easily brushed aside! Yet within a few months, by the time the PDP held its national convention in January 2010, the party machinery, virtually all the governors and most of the party barons were lined up behind him. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar suffered a humiliating defeat at Jonathan’s hands, in spite of the “NPLF Consensus Candidacy” bestowed on Atiku.

It was predictable that Jonathan would triumph in the presidential election given the coalition he had assembled going into the contest-he had managed to assure himself of almost 100 percent support from the South-South; South-East and North-Central. This unlikely core was unprecedented!-the South-South and South-East voluntarily re-enacting the old Eastern region and joined by the Northern Middle-Belt. It is also a credit to Jonathan that he could attract the South-West into this core, winning an overwhelming majority of South-West votes; and he had enough appeal in the North-West and North-East to win few states and score significant votes elsewhere in the region to secure the constitutionally-required 25% votes. Jonathan has thus welded a new majority across the country and even though regional patterns were apparent in the voting, he has enough pan-Nigerian goodwill to unite the country.

The opposition, particularly Buhari missed many opportunities to at least make Jonathan’s victory more difficult. He failed to take the opportunity of an alliance with the ACN; he strangely preferred Tunde Bakare, a divisive priest with a single parish as running-mate instead of Bola Tinubu or even Jimi Agbaje; and seemed to desire a victory based only on Northern votes that would give him untrammelled power and authority over the nation. The politics of candidate selection in Kano, Bauchi, Katsina and Taraba were so badly mismanaged that Buhari and the CPC basically sabotaged its own chances in the election. For a party that could easily have won six governorships, including strategically important states like Kano, Kaduna, Niger and Bauchi, if it had defined its priorities and objectives correctly, Buhari went for the presidency or nothing, and got nothing! Interestingly while the CPC grumbles about unproven allegations of inflated vote tallies in the South-South and South-East (which may be possible), the only established widespread irregularities in the presidential polls so far are underage voting and voter intimidation which happened in CPC-controlled areas! I also totally discount any notion that the post-election violence in the North was spontaneous. The pattern of incitement to violence by Buhari, Bakare and other CPC and NPLF leaders was undeniable; the riotous behaviour that accompanied CPC campaigns; and the baseless election-day complaints of Buhari himself were signs of what was to come. Of course like Wole Soyinka noted, Buhari and Bakare’s body language AFTER the violence suggested a smug satisfaction, which has since been reinforced by attempts to explain away the violence based on precedents of 30-50 years ago!

The big individual winners are of course Jonathan, and Bola Tinubu who secured the entire South-West for the ACN. Other emerging power players include Babatunde Raji Fashola; Ibikunle Amosun; Abiola Ajimobi; Sullivan Chime; Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi; Tanko Al-Makura; Bukola Saraki; Rochas Okorocha; Babangida Aliyu; Sule Lamido; Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso; Murtala Nyako; Patrick Yakowa; Ibrahim Shema; Segun Mimiko etc. The key casualties are Buhari; Bakare; Nuhu Ribadu; Ikedi Ohakim; Gbenga Daniel; Adebayo Alao-Akala and Aliyu Akwe Doma. A generation-Obasanjo; Buhari; Babangida; Danjuma; Aliyu Gusau and perhaps also Atiku may now prepare for retirement! The institutional winners are the PDP and ACN, and to a lesser extent, APGA which gained Imo State.
Jonathan has now secured the political legitimacy that permits him to change Nigeria for good. He has no excuse for failure!!!

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Osama Bin Laden: 1957-2011

Most Americans can recall the precise moment they heard about the September 11, 2001 terrorist destruction of the World Trade Centre and attacks on the Pentagon. I was being driven back from Ibadan in the afternoon of 9-11 when I learnt that terrorists had flown two airplanes into each of the two WTC Towers. I had gone to Ibadan as a member of the Bankers Committee Sub-Committee on the Small and Medium Industries Equity Investment Scheme (SMIEIS) leading a sensitization effort to brief relevant business associations and other stakeholders on the programme. As the chauffeur drove back on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, I thought to check how things were at work. The shocking information I received was of planes flying into tall buildings in Manhattan, New York! My informant claimed to have seen television images of a terrorist plane flown into the second tower!!!

Once I was convinced the fellow was not drunk, clowning or temporarily insane, I knew, like most citizens of the world, that we had entered into a new phase of global terror! And then some panic!!! My senior brother was a Captain in the New York City Police and often worked in the Manhattan area; my niece (my sister’s daughter) schooled there too. My family and I were regular visitors. My first trip outside Nigeria, years earlier was NOT to London like most Nigerians, but to New York and I had visited the Twin Towers and had course to carry out financial transactions therein. Beyond outrage, I could connect with the tragedy on a human level and as its scale and consequences became clearer, the sense of loss grew-children had lost parents for reasons they did not understand; fire fighters and first responders had perished as they rushed in to save lives; people had jumped out of the building to certain death in desperation or panic; spouses had spoken with their loved ones minutes before or during the collapse of the towers.

And then we learnt, by their claim of responsibility that this was Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden at work! How did this son of a rich Saudi construction magnate and friend of the Saudi monarchy evolve into the world’s number 1 terrorist? A veteran of the Mujahedin resistance of Soviet rule in Afghanistan, he had publicly declared war and threatened to attack Americans on the sea, land and air, and even though his affiliate “armies” had bombed US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and bombed the USS Cole in Yemen in 2000, Osama and the multinational terror organisation he served as CEO had not fully entered into American and global consciousness. 9-11 changed all that! Osama Bin Laden became one of the most infamous human beings who ever lived. He was admired by those who overtly or covertly shared his Jihadist agenda and visceral hatred for America and western civilisation. Bin Laden’s touted grudge against the US was its stationing of troops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab and Muslim lands, and support for Arab rulers whom he despised, but at the root was a Jihadist philosophy.

Americans could not understand what they had done to deserve such wanton murder, not of soldiers in the war front, but men, women and children who were simply attempting to earn a living, wondering in bewilderment, “Why do “they” hate us so much?; What have we done to “them”?” September 11 changed America. An insular President Bush who had hoped to focus on US domestic policy became the war monger who went after Al Qaeda and the Taliban government of Afghanistan which gave them refuge; Bush then made the misjudgement of going to war in Iraq which had no role in 9-11 and no “weapons of mass destruction”. 9-11 changed the structure of the US government. A massive Department of Homeland Security was created and huge resources deployed to fight global terror. The huge cost of its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was one underlying reason for the US’ compromised financial and economic immunity and contributed to its inability to withstand the shock of the 2008 financial crisis. Inspired by Bin Laden, fundamentalists purporting to act in the name of Islam, struck in London, Spain, Iraq, Indonesia and across the world. On September 11, some rejoiced in Palestine and in Kano, Nigeria!

Bin Laden changed the way the world travelled; obtain visas; transferred funds; he changed airport procedures and made the world paranoid about security in public places; he changed the structure of global defence, security, policing, communication and diplomatic policy; in many ways he slowed down the march of global civilisation! But then that was his objective! Osama Bin Laden believed that America and western civilisation would crumble under the weight of terror. He was wrong. In killing Osama Bin Laden on May 1, 2011, America proved its resilience. President Obama dispelled right wing doubts about his national security credentials and silenced those who question his nationality and faith, though irrationalism can endure in spite of the evidence. On 5-1, Osama Bin Laden received a bullet in the chest and head from US Navy SEALS, in his mansion in Abbottabad, near Islamabad, Pakistan and was buried in the Arabian Sea the next day.

Like President Obama said, “Osama Bin Laden will not walk this earth again”. Will the ideas he espoused survive him, or will they be interred with his bones?