President Goodluck Jonathan will take the oath of office as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for the second time on Sunday May 29, 2011, the first being on May 6, 2010 after the death of late President Umaru Yar’adua. This time will however be different-President Jonathan has won the office on his own merit and in his own right and now has the mandate and legitimacy to “transform Nigeria”. When Jonathan became Acting President early last year, I wrote “Memo to Goodluck Jonathan” in which I counseled a limited agenda, centered on electoral reform; power; Niger-Delta and anti-corruption. This time, Jonathan must design a comprehensive programme for impacting all aspects of national life over the next four years.
The president has some immediate priorities even in this time of transition-getting critical legislation enacted into law BEFORE the inauguration, in particular the 2011 appropriation; the sovereign wealth fund; petroleum industry and the freedom of information bills. He must also ensure continued implementation of the power sector road map even through transition. The objective must be to ensure completion of the privatization of ALL PHCN unbundled entities slated for privatization within the next three months! The president must also mandate the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) and National Council on Privatization to complete concessioning of the transmission entity within the same period. Unfortunately given the post-election violence in Northern Nigeria, Jonathan will also have to design an agenda for national reconciliation to heal the deep wounds inflicted by the senseless carnage. It seems to me that he will have to isolate those extremist elements who seem intent on dividing our people, and draw a consensus across the country around moderate positions.
Beyond the immediate, Jonathan’s core objectives in my view should centre around power and infrastructure; human capital and social sector investments; deepening economic reforms and improved fiscal and macroeconomic management; and corruption and national values. In respect of power, I believe the president already has a robust strategy embedded in the power sector road map he launched in 2010. The focus now must be to remove all obstacles to the swift execution of that programme, especially labour and geo-regional obstructions and ensure that by December 2011, Nigeria has a power sector that is private sector-controlled. Beyond privatizing the PHCN entities, a strategy for turning over the ongoing National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) to the private sector must be designed. The Yar’adua/Jonathan era has seen a lot of budgetary allocation to road infrastructure, but perhaps execution (and value-for-money) has lagged. President Jonathan must now ensure that we see tangible evidence of the budget spend in terms of vast improvements in our national road network.
The government must focus ALL its attention on social sector reforms-education; health; poverty and unemployment. The president seems to have shown some passion for education reform. In line with the trend suggested in the 2011 appropriation, we need to continue to increase investments in education and science and technology to redress the education sector disaster the nation is marching inexorably towards. Clearly we need better educational infrastructure; more emphasis on quality; better trained and motivated teachers; leveraging science and technology; and improved ethics and standards in our educational sector. The government must also seek consensus around reform of the Almajirai educational system in the North. The key health sector challenges in my view are two-fold-sector reform to ensure we have the right structures and institutional mechanisms in place and sustainable financing. The president needs a team of financial, insurance and health sector experts to review the current sub-optimal health insurance system and come up with a comprehensive reform that will ensure universal health coverage in a sustainable framework. It is clear that we have a national emergency as regards poverty and unemployment. The report of the Dangote Committee on Job Creation already provides a “roadmap” for dealing with the jobs issue, but we need a similar “Marshall Plan” for poverty alleviation, social welfare and rural development.
The agenda in respect of economic management must focus on achieving diversification from oil, focusing in my view on agriculture, solid minerals; manufacturing, transportation and tourism. Critical in achieving these are power, security, and policy reforms in these sectors. The problems of Niger-Delta militancy, Boko Haram insurrection and general state of crime and insecurity MUST be laid to rest. We also need a competition and anti-trust law to ensure what we get is a free market, not a free jungle; and continued regulatory and investment climate reforms. In the fiscal side, it would be a giant step forward if the Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill is signed into law to institutionalize better fiscal frameworks. I will also advocate an amendment to the fiscal responsibility act to compel the federal (and states?) government to devote at least seventy percent of budget to capital expenditure by 2015, with the law mandating progression to that minimum on a year-to-year basis. We also need reform of the public services, compliance with procurement regulations; and a true anti-corruption war.
I also hope Jonathan will have time for legal and constitutional reforms to enthrone a true federal system, including devolution of powers to states and local governments; fiscal federalism; independent candidacy and diaspora voting; a fair and accurate census and voters register; reform of the land use act (to modify or remove the consent requirements), and introduction of commercial courts. Finally I believe the president must focus on national values and ethical re-orientation.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Jonathan's Path To Victory
President Goodluck Jonathan has secured the mandate for transformation that he sought from Nigerians. His party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) retains a majority in both houses of the National Assembly, even though smaller than the outrageous landslides of 2003 and 2007; the PDP also controls most state governorships, even though it suffered a whitewash in the South-West. The president secured 25% or more of the votes across all geo-political zones even though he did not win outright majorities in core Hausa-Fulani states. And the margin of his victory-over 22 million votes to the runner-up’s 12 million is overwhelming.
This columnist has privately expected a Jonathan presidency since the Supreme Court affirmed late Umaru Yar’adua’s election in December 2008. Given that Yar’adua’s state of ill-health was public knowledge, I had somewhat expected Northern strategists to recognise that the only route to preserving the region’s hold on the presidency was a Supreme Court ruling annulling Yar’adua’s victory and allowing a fresh election. In the event that didn’t happen and in my analysis, that judgment merely removed the last obstacle to then Vice-President Jonathan ascending to the presidency! All efforts by the Yar’adua clique led by his wife and other contending power groups to prevent Jonathan’s inevitable succession failed in the face of national and global determination to ensure adherence to the Nigerian constitution.
Political analysts and even Jonathan’s opponents have often underrated him, but it is clear he deserves some credit for the string of strategic victories he has recorded. Jonathan carefully and tactically navigated the numerous minefields placed on his path during the Yar’adua power vacuum. At a point his party chairman, the powerful governors, Northern leaders, and just about every strategic power constituency imagined he was of no consequence and could be easily brushed aside! Yet within a few months, by the time the PDP held its national convention in January 2010, the party machinery, virtually all the governors and most of the party barons were lined up behind him. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar suffered a humiliating defeat at Jonathan’s hands, in spite of the “NPLF Consensus Candidacy” bestowed on Atiku.
It was predictable that Jonathan would triumph in the presidential election given the coalition he had assembled going into the contest-he had managed to assure himself of almost 100 percent support from the South-South; South-East and North-Central. This unlikely core was unprecedented!-the South-South and South-East voluntarily re-enacting the old Eastern region and joined by the Northern Middle-Belt. It is also a credit to Jonathan that he could attract the South-West into this core, winning an overwhelming majority of South-West votes; and he had enough appeal in the North-West and North-East to win few states and score significant votes elsewhere in the region to secure the constitutionally-required 25% votes. Jonathan has thus welded a new majority across the country and even though regional patterns were apparent in the voting, he has enough pan-Nigerian goodwill to unite the country.
The opposition, particularly Buhari missed many opportunities to at least make Jonathan’s victory more difficult. He failed to take the opportunity of an alliance with the ACN; he strangely preferred Tunde Bakare, a divisive priest with a single parish as running-mate instead of Bola Tinubu or even Jimi Agbaje; and seemed to desire a victory based only on Northern votes that would give him untrammelled power and authority over the nation. The politics of candidate selection in Kano, Bauchi, Katsina and Taraba were so badly mismanaged that Buhari and the CPC basically sabotaged its own chances in the election. For a party that could easily have won six governorships, including strategically important states like Kano, Kaduna, Niger and Bauchi, if it had defined its priorities and objectives correctly, Buhari went for the presidency or nothing, and got nothing! Interestingly while the CPC grumbles about unproven allegations of inflated vote tallies in the South-South and South-East (which may be possible), the only established widespread irregularities in the presidential polls so far are underage voting and voter intimidation which happened in CPC-controlled areas! I also totally discount any notion that the post-election violence in the North was spontaneous. The pattern of incitement to violence by Buhari, Bakare and other CPC and NPLF leaders was undeniable; the riotous behaviour that accompanied CPC campaigns; and the baseless election-day complaints of Buhari himself were signs of what was to come. Of course like Wole Soyinka noted, Buhari and Bakare’s body language AFTER the violence suggested a smug satisfaction, which has since been reinforced by attempts to explain away the violence based on precedents of 30-50 years ago!
The big individual winners are of course Jonathan, and Bola Tinubu who secured the entire South-West for the ACN. Other emerging power players include Babatunde Raji Fashola; Ibikunle Amosun; Abiola Ajimobi; Sullivan Chime; Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi; Tanko Al-Makura; Bukola Saraki; Rochas Okorocha; Babangida Aliyu; Sule Lamido; Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso; Murtala Nyako; Patrick Yakowa; Ibrahim Shema; Segun Mimiko etc. The key casualties are Buhari; Bakare; Nuhu Ribadu; Ikedi Ohakim; Gbenga Daniel; Adebayo Alao-Akala and Aliyu Akwe Doma. A generation-Obasanjo; Buhari; Babangida; Danjuma; Aliyu Gusau and perhaps also Atiku may now prepare for retirement! The institutional winners are the PDP and ACN, and to a lesser extent, APGA which gained Imo State.
Jonathan has now secured the political legitimacy that permits him to change Nigeria for good. He has no excuse for failure!!!
This columnist has privately expected a Jonathan presidency since the Supreme Court affirmed late Umaru Yar’adua’s election in December 2008. Given that Yar’adua’s state of ill-health was public knowledge, I had somewhat expected Northern strategists to recognise that the only route to preserving the region’s hold on the presidency was a Supreme Court ruling annulling Yar’adua’s victory and allowing a fresh election. In the event that didn’t happen and in my analysis, that judgment merely removed the last obstacle to then Vice-President Jonathan ascending to the presidency! All efforts by the Yar’adua clique led by his wife and other contending power groups to prevent Jonathan’s inevitable succession failed in the face of national and global determination to ensure adherence to the Nigerian constitution.
Political analysts and even Jonathan’s opponents have often underrated him, but it is clear he deserves some credit for the string of strategic victories he has recorded. Jonathan carefully and tactically navigated the numerous minefields placed on his path during the Yar’adua power vacuum. At a point his party chairman, the powerful governors, Northern leaders, and just about every strategic power constituency imagined he was of no consequence and could be easily brushed aside! Yet within a few months, by the time the PDP held its national convention in January 2010, the party machinery, virtually all the governors and most of the party barons were lined up behind him. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar suffered a humiliating defeat at Jonathan’s hands, in spite of the “NPLF Consensus Candidacy” bestowed on Atiku.
It was predictable that Jonathan would triumph in the presidential election given the coalition he had assembled going into the contest-he had managed to assure himself of almost 100 percent support from the South-South; South-East and North-Central. This unlikely core was unprecedented!-the South-South and South-East voluntarily re-enacting the old Eastern region and joined by the Northern Middle-Belt. It is also a credit to Jonathan that he could attract the South-West into this core, winning an overwhelming majority of South-West votes; and he had enough appeal in the North-West and North-East to win few states and score significant votes elsewhere in the region to secure the constitutionally-required 25% votes. Jonathan has thus welded a new majority across the country and even though regional patterns were apparent in the voting, he has enough pan-Nigerian goodwill to unite the country.
The opposition, particularly Buhari missed many opportunities to at least make Jonathan’s victory more difficult. He failed to take the opportunity of an alliance with the ACN; he strangely preferred Tunde Bakare, a divisive priest with a single parish as running-mate instead of Bola Tinubu or even Jimi Agbaje; and seemed to desire a victory based only on Northern votes that would give him untrammelled power and authority over the nation. The politics of candidate selection in Kano, Bauchi, Katsina and Taraba were so badly mismanaged that Buhari and the CPC basically sabotaged its own chances in the election. For a party that could easily have won six governorships, including strategically important states like Kano, Kaduna, Niger and Bauchi, if it had defined its priorities and objectives correctly, Buhari went for the presidency or nothing, and got nothing! Interestingly while the CPC grumbles about unproven allegations of inflated vote tallies in the South-South and South-East (which may be possible), the only established widespread irregularities in the presidential polls so far are underage voting and voter intimidation which happened in CPC-controlled areas! I also totally discount any notion that the post-election violence in the North was spontaneous. The pattern of incitement to violence by Buhari, Bakare and other CPC and NPLF leaders was undeniable; the riotous behaviour that accompanied CPC campaigns; and the baseless election-day complaints of Buhari himself were signs of what was to come. Of course like Wole Soyinka noted, Buhari and Bakare’s body language AFTER the violence suggested a smug satisfaction, which has since been reinforced by attempts to explain away the violence based on precedents of 30-50 years ago!
The big individual winners are of course Jonathan, and Bola Tinubu who secured the entire South-West for the ACN. Other emerging power players include Babatunde Raji Fashola; Ibikunle Amosun; Abiola Ajimobi; Sullivan Chime; Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi; Tanko Al-Makura; Bukola Saraki; Rochas Okorocha; Babangida Aliyu; Sule Lamido; Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso; Murtala Nyako; Patrick Yakowa; Ibrahim Shema; Segun Mimiko etc. The key casualties are Buhari; Bakare; Nuhu Ribadu; Ikedi Ohakim; Gbenga Daniel; Adebayo Alao-Akala and Aliyu Akwe Doma. A generation-Obasanjo; Buhari; Babangida; Danjuma; Aliyu Gusau and perhaps also Atiku may now prepare for retirement! The institutional winners are the PDP and ACN, and to a lesser extent, APGA which gained Imo State.
Jonathan has now secured the political legitimacy that permits him to change Nigeria for good. He has no excuse for failure!!!
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Osama Bin Laden: 1957-2011
Most Americans can recall the precise moment they heard about the September 11, 2001 terrorist destruction of the World Trade Centre and attacks on the Pentagon. I was being driven back from Ibadan in the afternoon of 9-11 when I learnt that terrorists had flown two airplanes into each of the two WTC Towers. I had gone to Ibadan as a member of the Bankers Committee Sub-Committee on the Small and Medium Industries Equity Investment Scheme (SMIEIS) leading a sensitization effort to brief relevant business associations and other stakeholders on the programme. As the chauffeur drove back on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, I thought to check how things were at work. The shocking information I received was of planes flying into tall buildings in Manhattan, New York! My informant claimed to have seen television images of a terrorist plane flown into the second tower!!!
Once I was convinced the fellow was not drunk, clowning or temporarily insane, I knew, like most citizens of the world, that we had entered into a new phase of global terror! And then some panic!!! My senior brother was a Captain in the New York City Police and often worked in the Manhattan area; my niece (my sister’s daughter) schooled there too. My family and I were regular visitors. My first trip outside Nigeria, years earlier was NOT to London like most Nigerians, but to New York and I had visited the Twin Towers and had course to carry out financial transactions therein. Beyond outrage, I could connect with the tragedy on a human level and as its scale and consequences became clearer, the sense of loss grew-children had lost parents for reasons they did not understand; fire fighters and first responders had perished as they rushed in to save lives; people had jumped out of the building to certain death in desperation or panic; spouses had spoken with their loved ones minutes before or during the collapse of the towers.
And then we learnt, by their claim of responsibility that this was Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden at work! How did this son of a rich Saudi construction magnate and friend of the Saudi monarchy evolve into the world’s number 1 terrorist? A veteran of the Mujahedin resistance of Soviet rule in Afghanistan, he had publicly declared war and threatened to attack Americans on the sea, land and air, and even though his affiliate “armies” had bombed US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and bombed the USS Cole in Yemen in 2000, Osama and the multinational terror organisation he served as CEO had not fully entered into American and global consciousness. 9-11 changed all that! Osama Bin Laden became one of the most infamous human beings who ever lived. He was admired by those who overtly or covertly shared his Jihadist agenda and visceral hatred for America and western civilisation. Bin Laden’s touted grudge against the US was its stationing of troops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab and Muslim lands, and support for Arab rulers whom he despised, but at the root was a Jihadist philosophy.
Americans could not understand what they had done to deserve such wanton murder, not of soldiers in the war front, but men, women and children who were simply attempting to earn a living, wondering in bewilderment, “Why do “they” hate us so much?; What have we done to “them”?” September 11 changed America. An insular President Bush who had hoped to focus on US domestic policy became the war monger who went after Al Qaeda and the Taliban government of Afghanistan which gave them refuge; Bush then made the misjudgement of going to war in Iraq which had no role in 9-11 and no “weapons of mass destruction”. 9-11 changed the structure of the US government. A massive Department of Homeland Security was created and huge resources deployed to fight global terror. The huge cost of its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was one underlying reason for the US’ compromised financial and economic immunity and contributed to its inability to withstand the shock of the 2008 financial crisis. Inspired by Bin Laden, fundamentalists purporting to act in the name of Islam, struck in London, Spain, Iraq, Indonesia and across the world. On September 11, some rejoiced in Palestine and in Kano, Nigeria!
Bin Laden changed the way the world travelled; obtain visas; transferred funds; he changed airport procedures and made the world paranoid about security in public places; he changed the structure of global defence, security, policing, communication and diplomatic policy; in many ways he slowed down the march of global civilisation! But then that was his objective! Osama Bin Laden believed that America and western civilisation would crumble under the weight of terror. He was wrong. In killing Osama Bin Laden on May 1, 2011, America proved its resilience. President Obama dispelled right wing doubts about his national security credentials and silenced those who question his nationality and faith, though irrationalism can endure in spite of the evidence. On 5-1, Osama Bin Laden received a bullet in the chest and head from US Navy SEALS, in his mansion in Abbottabad, near Islamabad, Pakistan and was buried in the Arabian Sea the next day.
Like President Obama said, “Osama Bin Laden will not walk this earth again”. Will the ideas he espoused survive him, or will they be interred with his bones?
Once I was convinced the fellow was not drunk, clowning or temporarily insane, I knew, like most citizens of the world, that we had entered into a new phase of global terror! And then some panic!!! My senior brother was a Captain in the New York City Police and often worked in the Manhattan area; my niece (my sister’s daughter) schooled there too. My family and I were regular visitors. My first trip outside Nigeria, years earlier was NOT to London like most Nigerians, but to New York and I had visited the Twin Towers and had course to carry out financial transactions therein. Beyond outrage, I could connect with the tragedy on a human level and as its scale and consequences became clearer, the sense of loss grew-children had lost parents for reasons they did not understand; fire fighters and first responders had perished as they rushed in to save lives; people had jumped out of the building to certain death in desperation or panic; spouses had spoken with their loved ones minutes before or during the collapse of the towers.
And then we learnt, by their claim of responsibility that this was Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden at work! How did this son of a rich Saudi construction magnate and friend of the Saudi monarchy evolve into the world’s number 1 terrorist? A veteran of the Mujahedin resistance of Soviet rule in Afghanistan, he had publicly declared war and threatened to attack Americans on the sea, land and air, and even though his affiliate “armies” had bombed US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and bombed the USS Cole in Yemen in 2000, Osama and the multinational terror organisation he served as CEO had not fully entered into American and global consciousness. 9-11 changed all that! Osama Bin Laden became one of the most infamous human beings who ever lived. He was admired by those who overtly or covertly shared his Jihadist agenda and visceral hatred for America and western civilisation. Bin Laden’s touted grudge against the US was its stationing of troops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab and Muslim lands, and support for Arab rulers whom he despised, but at the root was a Jihadist philosophy.
Americans could not understand what they had done to deserve such wanton murder, not of soldiers in the war front, but men, women and children who were simply attempting to earn a living, wondering in bewilderment, “Why do “they” hate us so much?; What have we done to “them”?” September 11 changed America. An insular President Bush who had hoped to focus on US domestic policy became the war monger who went after Al Qaeda and the Taliban government of Afghanistan which gave them refuge; Bush then made the misjudgement of going to war in Iraq which had no role in 9-11 and no “weapons of mass destruction”. 9-11 changed the structure of the US government. A massive Department of Homeland Security was created and huge resources deployed to fight global terror. The huge cost of its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was one underlying reason for the US’ compromised financial and economic immunity and contributed to its inability to withstand the shock of the 2008 financial crisis. Inspired by Bin Laden, fundamentalists purporting to act in the name of Islam, struck in London, Spain, Iraq, Indonesia and across the world. On September 11, some rejoiced in Palestine and in Kano, Nigeria!
Bin Laden changed the way the world travelled; obtain visas; transferred funds; he changed airport procedures and made the world paranoid about security in public places; he changed the structure of global defence, security, policing, communication and diplomatic policy; in many ways he slowed down the march of global civilisation! But then that was his objective! Osama Bin Laden believed that America and western civilisation would crumble under the weight of terror. He was wrong. In killing Osama Bin Laden on May 1, 2011, America proved its resilience. President Obama dispelled right wing doubts about his national security credentials and silenced those who question his nationality and faith, though irrationalism can endure in spite of the evidence. On 5-1, Osama Bin Laden received a bullet in the chest and head from US Navy SEALS, in his mansion in Abbottabad, near Islamabad, Pakistan and was buried in the Arabian Sea the next day.
Like President Obama said, “Osama Bin Laden will not walk this earth again”. Will the ideas he espoused survive him, or will they be interred with his bones?
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Innocent Blood at Easter
Human life is sacrosanct being created by God in his own image. Even animal life is not meant to be capriciously dispensed with, except to preserve or provide nourishment for humans or as a form of religious offering. Most cultures and religions venerate blood, even of animals. Native Yorubas may sacrifice the blood of a chicken or goat as religious propitiation. For elevated matters, they may use a cow, or seven cows! They may even use humans for weighty sacrifices such as when it involved an Oba or communal good! Most Nigerian, African and traditional religions acted similarly. In Islam, we are familiar with the account of Prophet Ibrahim, the Biblical Abraham and God’s instruction to sacrifice Isaac, but God replaced Isaac with a ram just in time. To this day, Moslems in imitation of Ibrahim offer a ram in probably the most important Islamic festival.
Amongst Jews, blood was similarly critical to religious observance, sacrifice, recompensing sin, trespass, or making peace offerings. In Biblical Israel, God instructed the Jews to mark their doorposts with blood of sacrificial lambs, so he could “pass over” them. Solomon’s fantastic offering of 1,000 bulls was a famous example of the power of such sacrifices in moving the hand of God. The Jews believed that “And almost all things are by the law purged with blood; and without shedding of blood is no remission”. Thus the High Priest would enter the Tabernacle on the annual Day of Atonement, and offer a sacrifice to obtain mercy from God for Israel. If the High priest was himself unclean, he would sometimes die in the Holy of Holies! The Israelites were of course certain to sin again and the annual atonement would become a hollow ritual. The essence of the death and resurrection of Christ was God’s purpose to create an eternal and enduring sacrifice for mankind. Given the scale of the mission, only the blood of his own son, Jesus would do!
Unfortunately this Easter, the enduring memory would be the innocent lives needlessly shed in Northern Nigeria in the wake of President Jonathan’s victory in the April 16, 2011 presidential elections. At the very least, indirect (if not direct) responsibility for the carnage points towards General Muhammadu Buhari, Mr Tunde Bakare, members of their party the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and certain elements of the so-called Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF). On September 17, 2010, Adamu Ciroma threatened “a series of events, the scope and magnitude of which we can neither proximate nor contain”; on October 5, 2010, Lawal Kaita threatened “to make the country ungovernable for President Jonathan or any other Southerner” elected president; on December 15, 2010, Atiku Abubakar warned of “violent change” and a certain Atiku Support Group added that “Boko Haram will be a child’s play compared with the action our members can take”.
Buhari and CPC campaigns were characterised by violence and riotous behaviour with drivers and passers-by compelled to chant “Sai Buhari”; Jonathan’s billboards were pulled down, his campaign office was destroyed in Gombe and he was pelted with stones in Nasarawa; Buhari issued a public instruction to his already volatile supporters to “lynch any body that tries to tinker with your votes” and his running-mate Tunde Bakare threatened a “wild, wild North” if their expected victory did not materialise. Early on polling day, Buhari complained of rigging and aeroplanes carrying thumb-printed ballot papers even before most voters had voted, and his party made allegations of computer fraud and rigging once results not favouring the party began to emerge. Interestingly so far, the only established “systematic rigging” of the presidential election has been intimidation of electoral officers and pervasive under-aged voting in Northern Nigeria, mostly for the CPC candidate.
The “dying declaration” of youth corper Ikechukwu Ukeoma on Facebook, subsequently murdered in Bauchi, who declared “This CPC supporters would have killed me yesterday…Even after forcing under-aged voters on me, they wanted me to give them the remaining ballot papers to thumbprint. Thank God for the Police…” and CNN and local media evidence of child voting across the North is indisputable.
In the event, the calls for violence and “lynching” were obeyed in Bauchi, Gombe, Kano, Kaduna, Yola, Sokoto, Minna and elsewhere in Northern Nigeria as CPC supporters shouting support for Buhari burnt Churches, homes of PDP supporters and killed Southerners and Youth Corpers, in what are arguably crimes against humanity!
It does seem that the orchestrated violence was designed for political purposes-to dissuade INEC and Government from announcing the rest of the results (as demanded by CPC Chairman Tony Momoh) as victory tilted irrevocably towards Jonathan; to force a political stalemate; or precipitate a national crisis that would have rendered the elections redundant! Whatever political calculations, the outcome is that innocent blood has been shed. It is particularly noteworthy that Bakare, who claims a Christian ministry, may be deemed complicit in the burning of Churches and killings of Christians!
Perhaps innocent blood has been shed in sacrifice for a new Nigeria? Perhaps President Jonathan and/or the international community will ensure that this time innocent blood is not shed in vain? Perhaps there would be truth, accountability and justice concerning responsibility for these needless deaths? What is certain is that God will demand an account of the blood of his children! May their souls rest in peace!!! Amen.
Amongst Jews, blood was similarly critical to religious observance, sacrifice, recompensing sin, trespass, or making peace offerings. In Biblical Israel, God instructed the Jews to mark their doorposts with blood of sacrificial lambs, so he could “pass over” them. Solomon’s fantastic offering of 1,000 bulls was a famous example of the power of such sacrifices in moving the hand of God. The Jews believed that “And almost all things are by the law purged with blood; and without shedding of blood is no remission”. Thus the High Priest would enter the Tabernacle on the annual Day of Atonement, and offer a sacrifice to obtain mercy from God for Israel. If the High priest was himself unclean, he would sometimes die in the Holy of Holies! The Israelites were of course certain to sin again and the annual atonement would become a hollow ritual. The essence of the death and resurrection of Christ was God’s purpose to create an eternal and enduring sacrifice for mankind. Given the scale of the mission, only the blood of his own son, Jesus would do!
Unfortunately this Easter, the enduring memory would be the innocent lives needlessly shed in Northern Nigeria in the wake of President Jonathan’s victory in the April 16, 2011 presidential elections. At the very least, indirect (if not direct) responsibility for the carnage points towards General Muhammadu Buhari, Mr Tunde Bakare, members of their party the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and certain elements of the so-called Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF). On September 17, 2010, Adamu Ciroma threatened “a series of events, the scope and magnitude of which we can neither proximate nor contain”; on October 5, 2010, Lawal Kaita threatened “to make the country ungovernable for President Jonathan or any other Southerner” elected president; on December 15, 2010, Atiku Abubakar warned of “violent change” and a certain Atiku Support Group added that “Boko Haram will be a child’s play compared with the action our members can take”.
Buhari and CPC campaigns were characterised by violence and riotous behaviour with drivers and passers-by compelled to chant “Sai Buhari”; Jonathan’s billboards were pulled down, his campaign office was destroyed in Gombe and he was pelted with stones in Nasarawa; Buhari issued a public instruction to his already volatile supporters to “lynch any body that tries to tinker with your votes” and his running-mate Tunde Bakare threatened a “wild, wild North” if their expected victory did not materialise. Early on polling day, Buhari complained of rigging and aeroplanes carrying thumb-printed ballot papers even before most voters had voted, and his party made allegations of computer fraud and rigging once results not favouring the party began to emerge. Interestingly so far, the only established “systematic rigging” of the presidential election has been intimidation of electoral officers and pervasive under-aged voting in Northern Nigeria, mostly for the CPC candidate.
The “dying declaration” of youth corper Ikechukwu Ukeoma on Facebook, subsequently murdered in Bauchi, who declared “This CPC supporters would have killed me yesterday…Even after forcing under-aged voters on me, they wanted me to give them the remaining ballot papers to thumbprint. Thank God for the Police…” and CNN and local media evidence of child voting across the North is indisputable.
In the event, the calls for violence and “lynching” were obeyed in Bauchi, Gombe, Kano, Kaduna, Yola, Sokoto, Minna and elsewhere in Northern Nigeria as CPC supporters shouting support for Buhari burnt Churches, homes of PDP supporters and killed Southerners and Youth Corpers, in what are arguably crimes against humanity!
It does seem that the orchestrated violence was designed for political purposes-to dissuade INEC and Government from announcing the rest of the results (as demanded by CPC Chairman Tony Momoh) as victory tilted irrevocably towards Jonathan; to force a political stalemate; or precipitate a national crisis that would have rendered the elections redundant! Whatever political calculations, the outcome is that innocent blood has been shed. It is particularly noteworthy that Bakare, who claims a Christian ministry, may be deemed complicit in the burning of Churches and killings of Christians!
Perhaps innocent blood has been shed in sacrifice for a new Nigeria? Perhaps President Jonathan and/or the international community will ensure that this time innocent blood is not shed in vain? Perhaps there would be truth, accountability and justice concerning responsibility for these needless deaths? What is certain is that God will demand an account of the blood of his children! May their souls rest in peace!!! Amen.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
The South West Governorships
As I write, President Goodluck Jonathan is virtually certain to be declared Nigeria’s elected President, a victory that bestows political legitimacy, as for the first time in his fortuitous career, Jonathan wins office on his own merit and secures the mandate for transformation he sought from the Nigerian people. The win is historically significant as Jonathan welds a new political majority out of Southern minorities, Northern middle-belt, South-East and South-West, and sufficient Hausa-Fulani support to earn the constitutionally-required 25% in several North-West and North-East states. Jonathan is the first Niger-Deltan, and second Southerner after Obasanjo (does MKO Abiola count?) elected Nigerian leader. Jonathan ends the era of dominance of politics by generals whose Nigerian worldview was shaped by 1966 and civil war, and brings a new, FRESH template to Nigerian politics. He may however yet have to overcome the final stirrings of the old Nigeria, before we can fully enter the new!
Those of us who condemned Jega after the huge flop of April 2, 2011 may now have to deliver a public apology, and I do so now! INEC rectified the problems in my polling unit 017 in Lekki and my neighbours and I finally voted in the landmark election. However the governorship elections remain, on Tuesday April 26, 2011 and this week, charity begins from home, as I focus on the governorship battles in the Lagos, Ogun and Oyo where gubernatorial and state assembly elections will take place and Ondo, Ekiti and Osun, which will conduct only state assembly polls. The elections will be fought between Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) now evidently the dominant regional party; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) since reduced to minority status in the region; Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), out-going Governor Gbenga Daniel’s vehicle for fighting the Ogun battle; former Oyo State Governor, Rasheed Ladoja’s Accord Party; and incumbent governor Olusegun Mimiko’s Labour Party in Ondo.
ACN has legacy franchise, electoral momentum, grassroots support, strong strategic leadership from former Lagos State Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as well as the exceptional performance of Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) as strong selling points; PDP has lost credibility due to the sleight-of-hand ex-President Obasanjo played to “conquer” the region in 2003 and the party subsequently squandered the opportunity to ingratiate themselves with the people; PPN will be desperate to retain Ogun, but is unlikely to overwhelm its two more established opponents-PDP and ACN-with a possibility of those two in fact combining against PPN, given ACN candidate Senator Ibikunle Amosun’s previous relationship with Obasanjo; Accord Party has made a strong showing in Oyo and is likely to win several house seats, and challenge strongly for the governorship; of course Labour is likely to dominate the Ondo legislative elections.
Lagos State-“Bebe nlo”
Lagos is a straight fight between incumbent Fashola of ACN and PDP’s Dr Ade Dosunmu. Fashola served as Chief of Staff to Tinubu, was subsequently elected governor, and is acclaimed by most accounts as best performing governor in the whole federation! Fashola has recorded successes in road construction, transportation and infrastructure, environment, security, social services (education, health etc) and has ambitious plans of transforming Lagos into “Africa’s model mega city” in the areas of infrastructure and transportation, housing, urban planning and development, amongst others. His opponent, Dosunmu is not a bad candidate, but the advantages of continuity, excellent first term performance of Fashola and ACN’s profile in the state will sway most voters to re-elect Fashola.
The enduring campaign jingle of 2011 (apart from “my friend Jona…”) will be “…Lagos State ko ni baje o, ko ni baje o; ipinle Eko ko ni daru o; e wo ayika yin, ewo bo se nrewa; opelope Fashola, to fun wa leto to da; se water project ni kaso, abi free health mission; emi a dibo mi fun Fashola o, ma a dibo fun Fashola o; to ri bebe o ti tan o; bebe si nlo, Fashola nsise lo; bebe si nlo…”. May the “bebe” continue!!!
Ogun State-“SIA”
The contestants ACN’s Amosun, PPN’s Gboyega Nasir Isiaka and General Adetunji Olurin of PDP are all good candidates-Amosun is a chartered accountant and former Senator from Abeokuta; Isiaka a chartered accountant and banker from Yewa, is Daniel’s preferred successor; and Olurin is a distinguished decorated general from Yewa and Obasanjo’s choice. The National Assembly results confirm ACN’s popularity and the elections are likely to be decided on a strict party line vote favouring Amosun. Amosun will benefit from the division within PDP/PPN ranks and state demographics and is the only real politician in the contest, previously elected Senator, and may in fact have won the 2007 governorship elections. Amosun is more likely to prevail.
Oyo State-“Mandate”
The Oyo battle is between Ladoja of Accord, incumbent Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala of PDP and Senator Abiola Ajimobi of the ascendant ACN. Many Yorubas regard Akala’s occupation of the Oyo governorship as a travesty and desecration of a seat once occupied by Chief Awolowo. One indigene, a friend argues passionately that adjusted for resource availability, Akala must be the worst governor in the whole federation! Ladoja, a former one-term governor, was essentially forced out of office by Obasanjo and seemed naïve about power. Ajimobi, an MBA, former Nestle and Shell manager and CEO of Conoil Plc is probably best-placed to govern Oyo State, and even though Ladoja offers a credible alternative, I hope Ajimobi wins!
Those of us who condemned Jega after the huge flop of April 2, 2011 may now have to deliver a public apology, and I do so now! INEC rectified the problems in my polling unit 017 in Lekki and my neighbours and I finally voted in the landmark election. However the governorship elections remain, on Tuesday April 26, 2011 and this week, charity begins from home, as I focus on the governorship battles in the Lagos, Ogun and Oyo where gubernatorial and state assembly elections will take place and Ondo, Ekiti and Osun, which will conduct only state assembly polls. The elections will be fought between Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) now evidently the dominant regional party; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) since reduced to minority status in the region; Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN), out-going Governor Gbenga Daniel’s vehicle for fighting the Ogun battle; former Oyo State Governor, Rasheed Ladoja’s Accord Party; and incumbent governor Olusegun Mimiko’s Labour Party in Ondo.
ACN has legacy franchise, electoral momentum, grassroots support, strong strategic leadership from former Lagos State Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as well as the exceptional performance of Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) as strong selling points; PDP has lost credibility due to the sleight-of-hand ex-President Obasanjo played to “conquer” the region in 2003 and the party subsequently squandered the opportunity to ingratiate themselves with the people; PPN will be desperate to retain Ogun, but is unlikely to overwhelm its two more established opponents-PDP and ACN-with a possibility of those two in fact combining against PPN, given ACN candidate Senator Ibikunle Amosun’s previous relationship with Obasanjo; Accord Party has made a strong showing in Oyo and is likely to win several house seats, and challenge strongly for the governorship; of course Labour is likely to dominate the Ondo legislative elections.
Lagos State-“Bebe nlo”
Lagos is a straight fight between incumbent Fashola of ACN and PDP’s Dr Ade Dosunmu. Fashola served as Chief of Staff to Tinubu, was subsequently elected governor, and is acclaimed by most accounts as best performing governor in the whole federation! Fashola has recorded successes in road construction, transportation and infrastructure, environment, security, social services (education, health etc) and has ambitious plans of transforming Lagos into “Africa’s model mega city” in the areas of infrastructure and transportation, housing, urban planning and development, amongst others. His opponent, Dosunmu is not a bad candidate, but the advantages of continuity, excellent first term performance of Fashola and ACN’s profile in the state will sway most voters to re-elect Fashola.
The enduring campaign jingle of 2011 (apart from “my friend Jona…”) will be “…Lagos State ko ni baje o, ko ni baje o; ipinle Eko ko ni daru o; e wo ayika yin, ewo bo se nrewa; opelope Fashola, to fun wa leto to da; se water project ni kaso, abi free health mission; emi a dibo mi fun Fashola o, ma a dibo fun Fashola o; to ri bebe o ti tan o; bebe si nlo, Fashola nsise lo; bebe si nlo…”. May the “bebe” continue!!!
Ogun State-“SIA”
The contestants ACN’s Amosun, PPN’s Gboyega Nasir Isiaka and General Adetunji Olurin of PDP are all good candidates-Amosun is a chartered accountant and former Senator from Abeokuta; Isiaka a chartered accountant and banker from Yewa, is Daniel’s preferred successor; and Olurin is a distinguished decorated general from Yewa and Obasanjo’s choice. The National Assembly results confirm ACN’s popularity and the elections are likely to be decided on a strict party line vote favouring Amosun. Amosun will benefit from the division within PDP/PPN ranks and state demographics and is the only real politician in the contest, previously elected Senator, and may in fact have won the 2007 governorship elections. Amosun is more likely to prevail.
Oyo State-“Mandate”
The Oyo battle is between Ladoja of Accord, incumbent Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala of PDP and Senator Abiola Ajimobi of the ascendant ACN. Many Yorubas regard Akala’s occupation of the Oyo governorship as a travesty and desecration of a seat once occupied by Chief Awolowo. One indigene, a friend argues passionately that adjusted for resource availability, Akala must be the worst governor in the whole federation! Ladoja, a former one-term governor, was essentially forced out of office by Obasanjo and seemed naïve about power. Ajimobi, an MBA, former Nestle and Shell manager and CEO of Conoil Plc is probably best-placed to govern Oyo State, and even though Ladoja offers a credible alternative, I hope Ajimobi wins!
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Seven Endorsements
Last week I vented my frustration at the logistics and managerial failures that characterised the cancelled National Assembly elections of April 2, 2011. It was worse knowing that even if the elections had held, 75% of registered voters in my polling unit 017 at Admiralty Way, Lekki would not have voted, as our names were missing from INEC’s register! It was the same scenario second time around. INEC’s computerised register had about 70 more names but we went through the list only to discover that rather than additional names, some persons who had been accredited the previous week, could no longer find their names on the new list! Instead some names were repeated two, three, four, five or even six times!!! However the exercise turned out to be a victory for citizen action! We organised ourselves with several persons (Kate Henshaw, Bisola Longe, Sunny Irabor… etc) taking leadership.
We complied our own comprehensive list; I spoke with several media houses including STV and Inspiration FM highlighting our predicament; we spoke with the Lagos State Resident Electoral Officer (REC); we stayed there insisting on our right to vote and the voter turnout was massive; and eventually the REC sent one booklet of the manual register which allowed up to 50% of registered voters to exercise their franchise. I was still unable to vote along with my wife and many others, but we were satisfied that INEC had been compelled to seek solutions, and many more legitimate voters were able to cast their votes. INEC officials have promised to come with other booklets that will allow all of us vote next week. Most importantly I was gratified with reports of generally free, fair and credible elections across the country. Evidently on April 9, 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan and Professor Attahiru Jega set Nigeria on the path to free, fair and credible elections and hopefully democratic consolidation.
As I indicated on this page on March 30, 2011, I consider Jonathan the sensible choice for Nigeria’s presidency in these elections. I am now strengthened in that conviction! Jonathan promised free, fair and credible elections. The credit for the democratic dawn that Nigeria appears poised to experience goes largely to him, his appointee Jega, and to the Nigerian people. He is clearly on the path to delivering on his other critical commitments-the power sector roadmap which should lead to a more efficient, private-sector dominated power sector, which can attract the investments and management competences required to transform Nigeria’s electricity supply situation; and redressing the infrastructure, developmental, human and environmental problems in the Niger-Delta. As I wrote previously, I regard Jonathan as the candidate of national unity, a federation of co-equal nationalities and national integration, freedom and openness, power sector reform, education and critical infrastructure. In spite of his party, which I do not generally support, I will vote for Jonathan on April 16, 2011.
On April 26, I will gladly and without reservation vote for Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) of the ACN for a second term as governor of Lagos State. In his first term, Fashola has shown what is possible when government faces up to its responsibilities to the people. He has made significant progress towards providing Lagos with the infrastructure required to make Lagos “Africa’s model mega city”. I believe four more years under Fashola will enable his team consolidate on its blueprint for the transformation of Lagos and bring several of its more ambitious programmes to fruition. I have only one vote which I will cast in Lagos, but I will be casting several other votes of support and endorsement in the gubernatorial series across the country. I enthusiastically endorse the re-election of Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi to a second term in Rivers State. Amaechi has invested heavily in schools and educational infrastructure; hospitals and primary health centres; roads; security and a Greater Port Harcourt City. He governs with truth and sincerity and is committed to ameliorating the plight of the ordinary people of Rivers State. He will have my virtual vote! I also have a special interest in what happens in the Ogun State elections. In 2003, I supported then Governor Olusegun Osoba’s re-election on principle in spite of the fact that he was contesting against someone I was then closer to. I am happy that Ogun State is being retrieved from the undemocratic stranglehold to which it has been subjected for eight years and I gladly endorse the election of Senator Ibikunle Amosun of the ACN.
I have other endorsements as well. The National Assembly elections indicate that Dr Babangida Aliyu’s seat as Niger State governor is not quite safe. Nevertheless I wholeheartedly endorse re-election of the good Chief-Servant. I believe (and I have never met Aliyu) that he has projected himself as the kind of leader required in Nigerian politics-able to combine intellect with politics and responsibility. Unfortunately statesmanlike behaviour can sometimes be politically costly, especially when pitched against fascist or fundamentalist demagoguery, the type of which is on the rise in certain parts of the country. I sincerely hope Babangida Aliyu survives and is re-elected on April 26. I vote also for Sullivan Chime and Liyel Imoke of Enugu and Cross-River States-Chime for his developmental strides and for returning governance to the people; and Imoke for the calm, matured and sensible leadership he has shown in Cross-River State and the “South-South”.
We complied our own comprehensive list; I spoke with several media houses including STV and Inspiration FM highlighting our predicament; we spoke with the Lagos State Resident Electoral Officer (REC); we stayed there insisting on our right to vote and the voter turnout was massive; and eventually the REC sent one booklet of the manual register which allowed up to 50% of registered voters to exercise their franchise. I was still unable to vote along with my wife and many others, but we were satisfied that INEC had been compelled to seek solutions, and many more legitimate voters were able to cast their votes. INEC officials have promised to come with other booklets that will allow all of us vote next week. Most importantly I was gratified with reports of generally free, fair and credible elections across the country. Evidently on April 9, 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan and Professor Attahiru Jega set Nigeria on the path to free, fair and credible elections and hopefully democratic consolidation.
As I indicated on this page on March 30, 2011, I consider Jonathan the sensible choice for Nigeria’s presidency in these elections. I am now strengthened in that conviction! Jonathan promised free, fair and credible elections. The credit for the democratic dawn that Nigeria appears poised to experience goes largely to him, his appointee Jega, and to the Nigerian people. He is clearly on the path to delivering on his other critical commitments-the power sector roadmap which should lead to a more efficient, private-sector dominated power sector, which can attract the investments and management competences required to transform Nigeria’s electricity supply situation; and redressing the infrastructure, developmental, human and environmental problems in the Niger-Delta. As I wrote previously, I regard Jonathan as the candidate of national unity, a federation of co-equal nationalities and national integration, freedom and openness, power sector reform, education and critical infrastructure. In spite of his party, which I do not generally support, I will vote for Jonathan on April 16, 2011.
On April 26, I will gladly and without reservation vote for Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) of the ACN for a second term as governor of Lagos State. In his first term, Fashola has shown what is possible when government faces up to its responsibilities to the people. He has made significant progress towards providing Lagos with the infrastructure required to make Lagos “Africa’s model mega city”. I believe four more years under Fashola will enable his team consolidate on its blueprint for the transformation of Lagos and bring several of its more ambitious programmes to fruition. I have only one vote which I will cast in Lagos, but I will be casting several other votes of support and endorsement in the gubernatorial series across the country. I enthusiastically endorse the re-election of Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi to a second term in Rivers State. Amaechi has invested heavily in schools and educational infrastructure; hospitals and primary health centres; roads; security and a Greater Port Harcourt City. He governs with truth and sincerity and is committed to ameliorating the plight of the ordinary people of Rivers State. He will have my virtual vote! I also have a special interest in what happens in the Ogun State elections. In 2003, I supported then Governor Olusegun Osoba’s re-election on principle in spite of the fact that he was contesting against someone I was then closer to. I am happy that Ogun State is being retrieved from the undemocratic stranglehold to which it has been subjected for eight years and I gladly endorse the election of Senator Ibikunle Amosun of the ACN.
I have other endorsements as well. The National Assembly elections indicate that Dr Babangida Aliyu’s seat as Niger State governor is not quite safe. Nevertheless I wholeheartedly endorse re-election of the good Chief-Servant. I believe (and I have never met Aliyu) that he has projected himself as the kind of leader required in Nigerian politics-able to combine intellect with politics and responsibility. Unfortunately statesmanlike behaviour can sometimes be politically costly, especially when pitched against fascist or fundamentalist demagoguery, the type of which is on the rise in certain parts of the country. I sincerely hope Babangida Aliyu survives and is re-elected on April 26. I vote also for Sullivan Chime and Liyel Imoke of Enugu and Cross-River States-Chime for his developmental strides and for returning governance to the people; and Imoke for the calm, matured and sensible leadership he has shown in Cross-River State and the “South-South”.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
The Good-Access Intercontinental...
After five weeks of political commentary, I return this week to the economy, and particularly the financial sector. The announcement last monday March 28, 2011 of an imminent tie-up between Access Bank Plc, the dynamic Nigerian banking group with increasingly continental franchise and presence in the UK; and Intercontinental Bank Plc, one of Nigeria’s most aggressive and fastest-growing banks until it unfortunately ran into trouble with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in August 2009, gave me something to write (and cheer) about. I have always believed that the final test of Sanusi Lamido’s banking sector “reforms” would be successful and pragmatic resolution of the cases of the eight banks under CBN control such that they return to ethical private ownership and competent management, preferably in the hands of core investors which are local or international banking groups.
The eight banks matter involves significant systemic issues with limited options-nationalise the banks, which would involve significant legal and constitutional obstacles; liquidate them, which would require huge Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) and tax payer resources in paying off insured depositors and huge losses to depositors over the insurance threshold affecting government institutions, businesses, churches and religious bodies, associations and individuals, apart from the time and disruption that the process would entail; or continue the current unsustainable status quo with the institutions’ capital provided by CBN and control by persons with full managerial powers, no entrepreneurial or equity interest and accountable in reality to themselves only! The matter is made less tenable because four of the banks (Intercontinental; Oceanic; Union and Bank PHB) are large, systemically important (i.e. “too big to fail”) whose untidy exit or liquidation could damage the whole system!
The Access-Intercontinental merger, when it is finally consummated will be excellent for the Nigerian banking sector and economy. It resolves in a seamless manner all the systemic risks identified above. Depositors in Intercontinental are permanently assured of the safety of their deposits; investors salvage some value from their endangered investments; employees preserve their jobs and careers; and tax payers and CBN can retrench their lifeline to the Bank! It is also a “win-win” for Access Bank investors and stakeholders. They acquire a stronger platform for growth in profits, deposits and assets from the emerging, larger institution. The combined Access-Intercontinental increases Access Bank’s branch network by 300%; doubles deposit base and assets; has access to a larger customer base and key corporate and institutional accounts; and can expect to leverage synergies and complementarities that should produce efficiencies in margins, ROA and ROE.
It is good that in this transaction, all facts are on the table-both are well-known banks with ascertainable investors and managers; the transaction brings together two banks with strong corporate and institutional banking franchises and complementary commercial and retail network and produces a formidable African bank; and the transaction appears to have emerged through a transparent, competitive process. Both institutions have experience with mergers and acquisitions so hopefully the process of integration should go relatively well.
…and the Ugly-Jega’s Huge Flop!!!
I was inclined to complain about Professor Attahiru Jega’s INEC during and after the voters’ registration exercise in January, but I kept quiet in the national interest, to preserve the credibility of the 2011 elections! My name has been on every voters register since 1983 when I turned 18 years and I have voted in that year’s and every single election conducted in Nigeria since then. I had the greatest difficulty getting registered in Jega’s own-making five visits to the registration unit before I could get registered! I subsequently found cause for discomfort with some of the trends suggested by the figures revealed by the professor.
But nothing could have prepared me for the embarrassment and disgrace of Saturday April 2, 2011! INEC officials did not get to our polling unit on Admiralty Way, Lekki till 10.30am. My wife and I arrived the venue shortly after to find utter confusion. The place was filled with enthusiastic citizens eager to exercise their franchise, but INEC’s process of accreditation had NOT been well-thought through. Some good citizens (Kate Henshaw, Sunny Irabor…) had taken the initiative help get things organised. One good lady had provided three tables. But then in our polling unit 017, eighty per cent of us could not find our names on INEC’s register. My name, my wife, many neighbours and friends were missing perhaps transferred to Katsina, Bayelsa or Ebonyi State!!! If the election had held, perhaps we would not have voted, in spite of our best efforts.
It was with shock that we received the news that the elections had been cancelled nationwide. Professor Jega received all the funds he asked for from the president and the National Assembly; He made us amend the Constitution and Electoral Act severally to accommodate his mistakes and misjudgements; The funding requests he made were confounding, but the nation obliged him; He bungled the voters registration exercise; He announced INEC’s readiness to the nation and the world 24 hours to the polls! I think its time we begin to watch this gentleman very carefully. It is an insult on Nigerians to describe what has happened as an act of courage on Jega’s part! Incompetence, poor logistics and project management; lack of judgment and poor managerial abilities are the traits I see on display. And soon, I may be questioning motives as well!!!
The eight banks matter involves significant systemic issues with limited options-nationalise the banks, which would involve significant legal and constitutional obstacles; liquidate them, which would require huge Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) and tax payer resources in paying off insured depositors and huge losses to depositors over the insurance threshold affecting government institutions, businesses, churches and religious bodies, associations and individuals, apart from the time and disruption that the process would entail; or continue the current unsustainable status quo with the institutions’ capital provided by CBN and control by persons with full managerial powers, no entrepreneurial or equity interest and accountable in reality to themselves only! The matter is made less tenable because four of the banks (Intercontinental; Oceanic; Union and Bank PHB) are large, systemically important (i.e. “too big to fail”) whose untidy exit or liquidation could damage the whole system!
The Access-Intercontinental merger, when it is finally consummated will be excellent for the Nigerian banking sector and economy. It resolves in a seamless manner all the systemic risks identified above. Depositors in Intercontinental are permanently assured of the safety of their deposits; investors salvage some value from their endangered investments; employees preserve their jobs and careers; and tax payers and CBN can retrench their lifeline to the Bank! It is also a “win-win” for Access Bank investors and stakeholders. They acquire a stronger platform for growth in profits, deposits and assets from the emerging, larger institution. The combined Access-Intercontinental increases Access Bank’s branch network by 300%; doubles deposit base and assets; has access to a larger customer base and key corporate and institutional accounts; and can expect to leverage synergies and complementarities that should produce efficiencies in margins, ROA and ROE.
It is good that in this transaction, all facts are on the table-both are well-known banks with ascertainable investors and managers; the transaction brings together two banks with strong corporate and institutional banking franchises and complementary commercial and retail network and produces a formidable African bank; and the transaction appears to have emerged through a transparent, competitive process. Both institutions have experience with mergers and acquisitions so hopefully the process of integration should go relatively well.
…and the Ugly-Jega’s Huge Flop!!!
I was inclined to complain about Professor Attahiru Jega’s INEC during and after the voters’ registration exercise in January, but I kept quiet in the national interest, to preserve the credibility of the 2011 elections! My name has been on every voters register since 1983 when I turned 18 years and I have voted in that year’s and every single election conducted in Nigeria since then. I had the greatest difficulty getting registered in Jega’s own-making five visits to the registration unit before I could get registered! I subsequently found cause for discomfort with some of the trends suggested by the figures revealed by the professor.
But nothing could have prepared me for the embarrassment and disgrace of Saturday April 2, 2011! INEC officials did not get to our polling unit on Admiralty Way, Lekki till 10.30am. My wife and I arrived the venue shortly after to find utter confusion. The place was filled with enthusiastic citizens eager to exercise their franchise, but INEC’s process of accreditation had NOT been well-thought through. Some good citizens (Kate Henshaw, Sunny Irabor…) had taken the initiative help get things organised. One good lady had provided three tables. But then in our polling unit 017, eighty per cent of us could not find our names on INEC’s register. My name, my wife, many neighbours and friends were missing perhaps transferred to Katsina, Bayelsa or Ebonyi State!!! If the election had held, perhaps we would not have voted, in spite of our best efforts.
It was with shock that we received the news that the elections had been cancelled nationwide. Professor Jega received all the funds he asked for from the president and the National Assembly; He made us amend the Constitution and Electoral Act severally to accommodate his mistakes and misjudgements; The funding requests he made were confounding, but the nation obliged him; He bungled the voters registration exercise; He announced INEC’s readiness to the nation and the world 24 hours to the polls! I think its time we begin to watch this gentleman very carefully. It is an insult on Nigerians to describe what has happened as an act of courage on Jega’s part! Incompetence, poor logistics and project management; lack of judgment and poor managerial abilities are the traits I see on display. And soon, I may be questioning motives as well!!!
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